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Menelaus

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
3,682
I don't think he can. Mr. Grab'em by the Pussy can't gin-up the Creepy Joe meme unless he's prepared for it to reflect back on him. It'll just remind everyone that he was accused of sexual harassment/assault by 17 women. Biden's inappropriate hugging doesn't even come close. If anything Trump has been trying to sympathize with Biden on that front to try to inoculate himself of that issue.
Trump's base gives zero fucks about his own indiscretions. If anything, it "proves" he's a "man" to them. Trump and women just isn't a dealbreaking issue, but Biden and women very would could be among Biden's base.

Real question: Who is the Joe Biden in the Game of Thrones universe?
maester_aemon.png
 

Dark Knight

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,314
My first reaction to Biden's announcement is he is going the Hillary route. Focus on how shitty Trump is when the whole world already knows it and won't move the bar one bit. Both sides already processed Charlottesville so he's really just saying nothing at all.
 

chadskin

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,013
"I'm not a white supremacist" is a pretty poor opening pitch for why you and not the three gazillion other candidates.
 
Oct 26, 2017
7,964
South Carolina
I wonder if he has the recognition of how much of a black swan hit not only at the end of his tenure as Veep, but during to get what he would need to do rather than "turn back the clock" to Pax Americana and the post-civil rights glow. So much has been scraped raw or is suffering direct attack.

A vision that a good New Normal is the feasible answer is basically necessary now, and what needs to be utilized from before that has survived vs. what isn't or didn't is crucial.

"America is an idea"

Meh.

Not the worst launch video I've seen, at least?

He's wedging directly into the heart of the Right with that one. Using old, dead GOP ideology and talking points against t hem. It's a good strat.

Hopefully he at least picks a minority/woman for VP...

Him running probably helps Dems in Iowa and Georgia/NC Senate races no? Since he's so, well, old and white.

^^^^

Booty Judge and Beto have the same expectation.

Unfortunately he's got that cloudy-eye look you get when you're heading into extra innings.

Biden's strongest appeal for *me* is his institutional memory. He knows what the State Department should be doing and how it should be staffed. He knows how the entire bureaucracy should be staffed. This is kind of super important coming after Trump, and God knows the next President is getting zero transitional help at best, and probably active sabotage. As much as we "know" about the brain drain in the government, I don't think we really *know*, you know?

Many of the other candidates have acceptable familiarity with this to varying degrees (Sanders second-most, ironically), but it's a real concern to me for a total newcomer like Buttigieg.

True. The active scourging of Foggy Bottom was not neglect, nor has the current purge of DHS or assaults on the DoJ and Pentagon. Add in that a purge of 4th string refugees from the Island of GOP Misfit Toys will make this even harder. Definately one of his and other current/former senators' strengths.
 

KingK

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,856

Yup. It seems like most of the other big candidates get that. Biden (or Klob lol) would be awful in that regard, but I'm hopeful he gets torn apart in debates on this and bleeds most of his support before Iowa. Pete has already started eating away at him in the polls, and I think Kamala is positioning herself well to absorb most of his base in the South if/when he collapses.

I really wish more than ever that Warren had run in 2016 though. I actually do like Bernie, but a couple issues (his age and hesitance to tackle structural/procedural problems) hold him back for me, although I greatly appreciate how he's shifted the party so far. If Warren had run last time though, I think she'd be a strong frontrunner right now, and she's my favorite.
 

plagiarize

It's not a loop. It's a spiral.
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
27,559
Cape Cod, MA
I think this cuts both ways though. His institutional memory is an essential asset for rebuilding our institutions post-Trump. But it's also going to be one of the biggest hindrances to institutional reform (thinking more the electoral college, filibuster, Supreme Court here than federal agencies). That's one of my biggest issues with a Biden candidacy and presidency: I just don't think he has the will to make the deep-seated reforms that are sorely needed at this point. He's been a public servant for over 40 years, he'll be -- naturally and understandably -- too attached to the old way of doing things.
Right.

There's no going back. There's no putting the toothpaste back in the tube. Things need to change. Trump has demonstrated that the checks and balances only work if the President is acting in good faith. If they don't change, many bad faith actors will try and run for President and someone who is just as bad, but much more competent, could win, and under the current rules, do far more damage to the country than Trump has done.
 

Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,077
Minneapolis
Not-Biden news, Morning Consult just released a new round of approval ratings for Senators and governors. Since the Senator ratings are most pertinent to 2020 I'll just focus on those.

Susan Collins (R-Maine) 52/39
David Perdue (R-Georgia) 47/25
Steve Daines (R-Montana) 44/31
John Cornyn (R-Texas) 42/25
Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) 40/37
Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) 36/50 (!)
Cory Gardner (R-Colorado) 35/35
McSally (R-Arizona) 35/35
Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina) 34/33

Jeanne Shaheen (D-New Hampshire) 53/32
Mark Warner (D-Virginia) 48/29
Tina Smith (D-Minnesota) 42/24
Doug Jones (D-Alabama) 40/34
Gary Peters (D-Michigan) 33/23

Ernst has this reputation for having unbeatable approval ratings that doesn't seem to hold here, +3 at 40% is pretty weak. McConnell's numbers are hilariously topsy-turvy but of course, don't expect Kentucky voters to actually do anything about it.

Collins' approval rating is still frustratingly high but it is worth noting that it's only been going down since Trump became president. In the first quarter of 2017 it was 67/27.
 

Wilsongt

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,507
I think most of the top 5 or top 6 candidates right now have a chance of beating Trump.

It's when you have some left-field fuckery occur that allows for someone like Toblerone/Yang/Castro/Booker/Shultz to be the nominee that is the issue.

The biggest factor is which of the top candidates, and eventually the nominee, can recapture the Senate/governors mansions for the Dems.

Because bank on it: If SCOTUS rules in favor of the GOP for gerrymandering... States are goinf to be FUCKED.
 

Power Shot

Member
Oct 27, 2017
674
Can we not, with the collage? It's perfectly fine and inoffensive. I swear that people are freaking doing Trump's job for him.

There are plenty of reasons to question Biden's candidacy without needing to "predict" what Trump will use against his opponents. Every day, all I'm seeing is how one astray comment from each and every person is disqualifying and canceling to their candidacy, or how Trump will go after them. Can we please not be so self-defeating?
 

Hopfrog

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,956
Treating that Instagram collage as some sort of "gaffe" is remarkably silly in the age of Trump.
 

BoboBrazil

Attempted to circumvent a ban with an alt
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
18,765
I don't think anyone here is seriously thinking that Instagram post is going to hurt him or even be mentioned. It's just something to laugh at. It's obviously not intentional
 

Titanpaul

Member
Jan 2, 2019
5,008
Can we not with that collage? Let the candidates platform and actions speak for them. We're better than this.
 

Teggy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,892
She doesn't make the news very often, but one of the nastiest people in the whole trump family is eric's wife. She really relishes the hate.


 

Sugaree

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Mar 25, 2019
296
So who thinks Biden will be the Dem version of Jeb Bush in the primaries?
 
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