US PoliERA 2019 |OT5| She's got a plan for that, now sashay away

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Plinko

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,258
The crazy thing about Warren's rise is that she's basically doing it without huge press coverage.

I love Harris but I don't think her attacks on Biden are doing what they need to with black voters. If she cant get them from Biden, she cannot win.

Curious to see what would happen if Warren and Biden were the final two.
 

AnotherNils

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,302
The crazy thing about Warren's rise is that she's basically doing it without huge press coverage.

I love Harris but I don't think her attacks on Biden are doing what they need to with black voters. If she cant get them from Biden, she cannot win.

Curious to see what would happen if Warren and Biden were the final two.
I think the trick for Harris right now is to get attention. Once her profile is raised enough, then black voters will look into her and that's make or break time. This is Phase 1.
 

B-Dubs

Oh well, what the hell?
Administrator
Oct 25, 2017
15,569
I think the trick for Harris right now is to get attention. Once her profile is raised enough, then black voters will look into her and that's make or break time. This is Phase 1.
She might have the same issue Obama had early on and need to win an early state before they jump on en-mass.
 

Zeno

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,922
I imagine there's a lot of people who have Warren or Harris as their #2 choice if the other drops out.
 

sphagnum

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,413
The crazy thing about Warren's rise is that she's basically doing it without huge press coverage.

I love Harris but I don't think her attacks on Biden are doing what they need to with black voters. If she cant get them from Biden, she cannot win.

Curious to see what would happen if Warren and Biden were the final two.
Warren's had nothing but positive press coverage for weeks.
 

Teggy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,506
“I’m not right wing, I say nice things about tulsi Gabbard,” is the funniest excuse.

So does david duke, guy.
 

sangreal

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,480
1) They can't. They have to use total population to apportion districts. If they tried to use only the citizen population, it'd get to court so fast their heads would spin. SCOTUS ruled as recently as 2016 that non-citizen population must be included in legislative district totals. That part is a bluff. Including the question itself was always just a play to depress Hispanics' response rates. They still would've had to count non-citizens (people who answered no to the question) in the totals. They were just hoping people wouldn't respond at all.

2) They could, however, use citizenship data from other sources besides the census forms to go after people - bad in its own way but not technically related to apportionment.

3) Trump won't receive the data until December 2020 (standard turnover rate from the census), so with any luck he'll be a lame duck with only weeks left and they won't be able to do a damn thing about apportionment even if it's destined to fail in court. It makes winning next year that much more important.
Right, counting citizens vs non-citizens was never the point. This data is not of much use to the administration (which is why nobody requested it until ordered to for justification). The point was only ever to intimidate people from completing the census
 
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Plinko

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,258
I took a different job and bought a house this year so things are super tight, but I just made my first ever political donation. Feels good.
 

Royalan

Yeah I'm in my bag, but I'm in his too.
Moderator
Oct 24, 2017
2,755
The crazy thing about Warren's rise is that she's basically doing it without huge press coverage.

I love Harris but I don't think her attacks on Biden are doing what they need to with black voters. If she cant get them from Biden, she cannot win.

Curious to see what would happen if Warren and Biden were the final two.
This interview won't air until tomorrow. Until then the last time Harris has gone after Biden on a Black issue was the debates, and it did have an effect on his poll numbers.

But that's besides the point. While love for "Uncle Joe" definitely remains from him being Obama's VP, it is still the case that Black voters are an incredibly pessimistic voting block. Biden's main advantage with that block is his perceived electability. For better or worse, Black voters don't give a shit about the bullshit or pageantry. Black voters want someone who can win. Break that perception, and he will lose Black voters almost overnight.

Harris put a crack in him, and we saw what that alone did.

EDIT: Oops, quoted the wrong person.
 

AnotherNils

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,302
I'm disappointed there's no Switch "Pro" since I almost never play it undocked. Nintendo, I wanted to give you my money.
Nintendo is afraid of raw power.

---

People are suspecting Roberts pulled another ACA with the census case and switched at the last minute.


The question, I suppose it what did it. I suspect it was the hard drive. Which means his opinion is about the unconvincing lie by Ross is just cover.

Edit: This
 

Autodidact

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,997
People are suspecting Roberts pulled another ACA with the census case and switched at the last minute.
I said as much when they announced the opinion. RBG sent up signal flares about the census case early in June, leading everyone to believe Roberts would rule in the administration's favor. He pretty obviously switched.
 

JesseEwiak

Member
Oct 31, 2017
931
I said as much when they announced the opinion. RBG sent up signal flares about the census case early in June, leading everyone to believe Roberts would rule in the administration's favor. He pretty obviously switched.
Roberts knows the only thing keeping his Chief Justice reign from being a bunch of 6-5 decisions where he writes for the minority is either RBG kicking the bucket or making sure the other nuts on the Court don't go too far off the rails.

That's why I think any abortion case will be narrow enough to basically let red states do almost anything they want, possibly overruling the AL & LA laws on technical grounds, but not actually overruling Roe.
 

Fork

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
4,466
Lima, Peru
I said as much when they announced the opinion. RBG sent up signal flares about the census case early in June, leading everyone to believe Roberts would rule in the administration's favor. He pretty obviously switched.
I wonder what made him switch. My first impression is "dont want to have two disgusting rulings one after another"
 

AnotherNils

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,302
I wonder what made him switch. My first impression is "dont want to have two disgusting rulings one after another"
I don't think it was conscience. I think the Hoeffler files strained credulity past what he thought the institution could bear. (And he thought it could bear Ross lying to them and them pretending to buy it)
 

ZOONAMI

Member
Oct 27, 2017
10,074
Seriously tweet and call your state governors to mobilize their national guards to stop this ice shit.
 

Sheepinator

Member
Jul 25, 2018
5,288
Doctors at the University of Minnesota Medical School, who have been studying the skeletal structures of both Republicans for months, believe that their ability to stand, walk, and even break into a brisk trot when confronted by reporters’ questions is “virtually inexplicable.”

 

RedHoodedOwl

Member
Nov 3, 2017
7,198
Doctors at the University of Minnesota Medical School, who have been studying the skeletal structures of both Republicans for months, believe that their ability to stand, walk, and even break into a brisk trot when confronted by reporters’ questions is “virtually inexplicable.”

At first, I thought this was an article from The Onion.
 

Kyra

The Eggplant Queen
Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,588
New York City
Doctors at the University of Minnesota Medical School, who have been studying the skeletal structures of both Republicans for months, believe that their ability to stand, walk, and even break into a brisk trot when confronted by reporters’ questions is “virtually inexplicable.”

This should be about Dems amiright!!?!!! !1
 

Wilsongt

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,811
Old man Trump is yelling at clouds, or rather cryptocurrency, on Twitter.

So Scavino or someone else has the account.

Because you know Trump doesn't know shit about cryptocurrency and I am sure a large swath of his younger, white, male supporters are heavy investors.
 

Wonderment

Moderator
Oct 27, 2017
9,143
He can't keep them out (wall, etc.)
He can't kick them out (resources, other countries won't acquiesce)
He can't detain them invisibly (they're being called concentration camps)

And even if he could, these didn't produce enough consistent bumps in polling (celebrating 50% from Ras doesn't cut it)

But he can scare them. Terrorize them, even. "The cruelty is the point", as they say. Which I'd believe was all he really wanted, except for that axios interview that was cut short when he began lamenting about being a nice person. The increase in press over the cruelty of detainment and the cruelty of vaporizing the aca, without the increase in polling, was getting to him - but only that: nothing humanitarian or policy-based, of course.

Others around him are getting jollies from all this, of course. But it shows that nothing is working to provide the adulation he needs. Travel ban, wall, cruel for-profit detainment, threats of being rendered invisible like census and family deportation (deportations during the upcoming hurricane, seriously?). It took a twitter troll summit to soothe him today, signaling perhaps a change in strategy heading into the 2020 cycle.

Makes the clearly divided house democratic caucus look even more ridiculous than it is.
 

Royalan

Yeah I'm in my bag, but I'm in his too.
Moderator
Oct 24, 2017
2,755
Donald Trump deserves nothing but misery. Misery and ingrown toenails.
 
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