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Soul Skater

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,201
She's up in 2022. Sullivan's up next year, and I think the race has been just a bit underrated. He barely won in 2014 when he beat Begich. But as Ogodei said, don't discount Iowa, especially if our nominee carries it.
Yeah I know but my point moreso being id think Sullivan would HAVE to be vulnerable if Murkowksi felt the need to play the games she did where as he has been a silent nobody this entire administration who voted for everything. Whatever dem running against him can absolutely use all of that and brow beat him for it. It's the perfect way to isolate him as a Trumpian stooge and get all of Murkowskis moderate darling republican votes
 

Autodidact

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,729
Yeah I know but my point moreso being id think Sullivan would HAVE to be vulnerable if Murkowksi felt the need to play the games she did where as he has been a silent nobody this entire administration who voted for everything. Whatever dem running against him can absolutely use all of that and brow beat him for it. It's the perfect way to isolate him as a Trumpian stooge and get all of Murkowskis moderate darling republican votes
I think you have things a bit muddled. Murkowski lost her primary in 2010 because the right-wing loonies perceived her as moderate/RINO/whatever. She won the write-in by assembling the coalition you describe - Democrats (largely Natives) and moderate independent and GOP voters. Now, she has to keep that coalition happy because if they desert her, the right-wingers won't carry her to victory because they still view her with suspicion. They'll just primary her again. In other words, she's simultaneously proved she doesn't need the national party or the rabid base but has also worked her way into a corner where she has to appear more moderate to survive.

Sullivan, conversely, is just a bog-standard GOP goon. He won't be primaried because the base likes him, and AK is still red enough that the Republican nominee is the heavy favorite in the general. Thus, he can vote for Trump's entire agenda with impunity.

Basically, Murkowski's voting patterns reflect her own unique situation more than the political dynamics of AK writ large, though maybe the state has changed a bit in the last decade.
 

devSin

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,196
I get that but when has that ever worked though for the party that holds the executive branch? When the GOP media machine is able to paint lifesaving policies as belonging to welfare queens and commies, pointless obstruction gets celebrated. Sure, you can strike a deal every once and a while but that only works if you have something to leverage or your willing to give up on a policy and the group of people that would benefit from that, I.e. public option.
I don't think Biden is saying that, though.

He's giving a "hearken back to ye olde times" answer to basically advance a position that regarding Republicans as absolute enemies doesn't advance our interests. It's fundamentally about polarization, not the particulars of working with the GOP on any specific policy (which as everybody notes is simply not a reasonable expectation), and is as much about reassuring R and I voters (who would vote Biden instead of Trump) as it is about the specifics of what it actually means.

Joe Biden is a bad candidate. That has always been true (this isn't his first rodeo, and he sucked in all of them). But I'm not sure I see the danger of him making these statements (Republicans aren't going anywhere, no matter how awful they are).
 

Linkura

Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,943
Autodidact Ahhh, another lady I love to hate.


How does his fake tan keep getting even worse?????????? Someone please hold an intervention and have him get a makeup artist to do it at least for God's sake. How is it going to look in a year?????????/
It's not about who keeps the seat. It's about control and punishment.

They let Amash live poltically after showing a spine, morals, ethics, and patriotism, it shows the spineless morons that makes up a decent chunk of the GOP Congresscritter ranks that it's OK to state what they really think about all this.

Flake --> Dem
Corker --> Hold
Sanford --> Dem
Amash --> ???

Doesn't matter. They know the collective policing of each other with brutal, immediate ostracism is the only thing holding back complete chaos and retreat...for now.
Good assessment.
 

Clowns

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,873
Things are getting spicy in Virginia.


Morrissey, a colorful and controversial former Richmond prosecutor, served eight years in the House as a Democrat before vacating the seat for an unsuccessful challenge of Dance as an independent.
During his 30-year political career, he has brandished, sometimes literally, the image of "Fighting Joe" — a feisty populist who prides himself on serving constituents who are overlooked and underserved.
"I like helping the little guy," he has said.
However, Morrissey's reputation also includes a misdemeanor conviction of contributing to the delinquency of a minor involving relations with a then-17-year-old law firm employee, whom he later married. His wife, Myrna, has become a prominent figure in his campaign and introduced him at the campaign kickoff in early April at the Satellite Restaurant in South Richmond.
After the conviction, Morrissey resigned his 74th House District seat, reclaimed it in a special election, and then served a six-month jail term while serving as delegate during the day during the General Assembly session in 2015.

Virginia Democrats are trash.

Sorry, Kirblar.
 

Luminish

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,508
Denver
I don't think Biden is saying that, though.

He's giving a "hearken back to ye olde times" answer to basically advance a position that regarding Republicans as absolute enemies doesn't advance our interests. It's fundamentally about polarization, not the particulars of working with the GOP on any specific policy (which as everybody notes is simply not a reasonable expectation), and is as much about reassuring R and I voters (who would vote Biden instead of Trump) as it is about the specifics of what it actually means.

Joe Biden is a bad candidate. That has always been true (this isn't his first rodeo, and he sucked in all of them). But I'm not sure I see the danger of him making these statements (Republicans aren't going anywhere, no matter how awful they are).
The danger is letting republicans off the hook for anything they ever do, instead of using it against them to make them lose, which both hurts us downballot at the polls, and hurts us in the future when Republicans brazenly do the exact same shit. All just so Joe Biden can serve Joe Biden's goal of becoming president.

You don't stop talking to republican voters, but you do point out why they should maybe stop voting for people in the republican party.
 

Naijaboy

The Fallen
Mar 13, 2018
15,297


Basically, all the Dems who supported Northam are getting bodied. Unfortunately, Morrissey smelled blood in the water and struck gold.

In other words, Dems should have hauled Northam and Fairfax months ago.
 

EvilChameleon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,793
Ohio
People (like Biden) who refer to political parties as "teams" are not to be trusted. Politics aren't sports. Part of the problem with this country is a ton of people treat it like it is.
 

Soul Skater

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,201
I'm really can't decide what actually would be good or a disaster

It's hard to tell, there are so many bubbles based on where you click there's entirely different narratives and everyone seems to be a bit clueless on how things actually are at this point.

The big problem right now is our coalition is... weird. It's basically a bunch of young people fed up who want to turn the system on its head. Various minority groups who mostly vote D as a fuck you to the GOP more than anything and a bunch of middle aged to elderly people, mostly women, who used to love Ronald Reagan but think Trump is a mean bad man who says the bad thing in front of their child

So like, midterms this wasn't as big of an issue because you can run different candidates everywhere to fit what sort of democratic electorate you are looking at. But in a presidential election when you are looking at everyone and they need to all get behind one person it starts to get a lot more difficult

I was thinking we'd need to run with Bernie but I'm super worried the former republican crowd won't be down with that at all whatso ever. But they seem to love Biden. Also swing Latino voters, especially in the sun belt would moving to the left backfire with them where as Biden would do better. Really I can't decide if Bernie would be the person to help us drive turnout or if nominating him would backfire and he'd just be American Corbyn.

On the other hand is Biden's strong polling going to flatline like Hillary because the youth couldn't be fucked with him or her and we're just going to repeat last cycle

Or is Biden actually better at this whole being well liked political thing than Hillary even if the internet youth hate both and want them both to be the same even though the normies don't think they are at all

I don't feel like anyone comes close to being able to make "everyone" happy sort of like Obama did. Part of that is, yeah the internet, and this new age of internet cynicism, and how young people suck.

But young people are also right about a lot, and before we brought a lot of people together by not ignoring things we shouldn't ignore.

So... idk. No clue what the fuck we even do at this point
 
Dec 6, 2018
574
I don't think Biden is saying that, though.

He's giving a "hearken back to ye olde times" answer to basically advance a position that regarding Republicans as absolute enemies doesn't advance our interests. It's fundamentally about polarization, not the particulars of working with the GOP on any specific policy (which as everybody notes is simply not a reasonable expectation), and is as much about reassuring R and I voters (who would vote Biden instead of Trump) as it is about the specifics of what it actually means.

Joe Biden is a bad candidate. That has always been true (this isn't his first rodeo, and he sucked in all of them). But I'm not sure I see the danger of him making these statements (Republicans aren't going anywhere, no matter how awful they are).
I suppose its not dangerous per say, only because this kind of messaging has been normalized to such a degree that it may as well mean nothing, but its entirely ignorant of what politics has unearthed about the current electoral system. "Going back" is impossible with the way the GOP is today, and when the GOP has been doing such evil shit, the fact that the Dems aren't is what makes them polarized, and this is supposed to be reason to compromise?

Reassuring R & I voters about false fantasies has only led to temporary success followed by future pushback when the other side does the same thing. The only way to not have to do that is to play to your actual base and their interests and show how that is actually in the best interests of people and not the shit the GOP has been pulling. Sure, that will require an initial vote of confidence from convincing said I & Rs in the first place to get started, but with Trump's bad polls we have that opportunity to really change the system. But what Biden and a bunch of others seems to want to do is business as usual with a smile.That's what is especially damaging with this rhetoric and Biden as a candidate, because we might finally have a chance to break the cycle but he doesn't even want to see that.
 

Autodidact

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,729
Basically, all the Dems who supported Northam are getting bodied.
Well, uh... I guess no one can accuse them of not having convictions. They just have the wrong ones.

We can still flip the legislature. Morrissey appears to have won the primary in a safe Democratic district, and if Kim Howard opposes Northam, she's probably the better bet to flip Senate district 7.
 

devSin

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,196
I don't feel like anyone comes close to being able to make "everyone" happy sort of like Obama did. Part of that is, yeah the internet, and this new age of internet cynicism, and how young people suck.
Electoral politics is such that you don't need to make "everyone" happy.

There are only a handful of states that actually matter.

Reassuring R & I voters about false fantasies has only led to temporary success followed by future pushback when the other side does the same thing. The only way to not have to do that is to play to your actual base and their interests and show how that is actually in the best interests of people and not the shit the GOP has been pulling. Sure, that will require an initial vote of confidence from convincing said I & Rs in the first place to get started, but with Trump's bad polls we have that opportunity to really change the system. But what Biden and a bunch of others seems to want to do is business as usual with a smile.That's what is especially damaging with this rhetoric and Biden as a candidate, because we might finally have a chance to break the cycle but he doesn't even want to see that.
The harsh truth is that harsh truths will not get people to change party allegiance.

It's even less true in current times than it has been in the past.

Idealism is fine, and necessary, but it doesn't change reality.
 

sphagnum

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
16,058
DSA candidate Yasmine Taeb keeps ticking up with every update, but it's probably not going to be enough to pull out a win. Torrent is acting as a spoiler.
 
Dec 6, 2018
574
Electoral politics is such that you don't need to make "everyone" happy.

There are only a handful of states that actually matter.

The harsh truth is that harsh truths will not get people to change party allegiance.

It's even less true in current times than it has been in the past.

Idealism is fine, and necessary, but it doesn't change reality.
Okay but that only leaves business as usual and that has only led to incrementalism on a ticking timebomb of a planet. As much as I hope the Tump base is only interested in Trump and not the GOP, that would be idealism as well. So should I just conclude that the system is basically a back and forth hell? Because as far as grassroots efforts to register people to vote, the system allows for disenfranchisement to happen and gerrymandering, again, without consequence.

We don't know how much of this idealism is untenable because the likes of people blindly following this rhetoric don't seem to actually want to achieve more
 

devSin

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,196
Okay but that only leaves business as usual and that has only led to incrementalism on a ticking timebomb of a planet. As much as I hope the Tump base is only interested in Trump and not the GOP, that would be idealism as well. So should I just conclude that the system is basically a back and forth hell? Because as far as grassroots efforts to register people to vote, the system allows for disenfranchisement to happen and gerrymandering, again, without consequence.
Demographics suggest that the Republican Party is dying already.

But it's going to be a long, slow, painful process (especially with the types of interference you note). The idea that you're going to provoke a sea change among an entire class of voters by pointing out things they already know about is not rational.

Republican and independent voters know what they signed up for. If they switch to Democrat in 2020, it will only be in the hopes that they will get a Republican they like in 2024.
 
Oct 25, 2017
17,537
Its kinda funny how hard they try to make friends with nazis (see also Virgil Texas hosting a party for nazis and Chelsea Manning doing an escape room with nazis) and yet we the filthy libs are the supposed scum of the earth.
 
Dec 6, 2018
574
Demographics suggest that the Republican Party is dying already.

But it's going to be a long, slow, painful process (especially with the types of interference you note). The idea that you're going to provoke a sea change among an entire class of voters by pointing out things they already know about is not rational.

Republican and independent voters know what they signed up for. If they switch to Democrat in 2020, it will only be in the hopes that they will get a Republican they like in 2024.
The Dems pointed out that the GOP sucks at healthcare in 2018 and that worked out. IDK maybe my thinking is not rational, but it beats sitting around waiting for the GOP to die a slow death while the rest of the world dies and people get their rights stripped away depending on where they live. Plus, even if the GOP dies, what happens when another conservative party takes their place? The cycle would just continue under different names. The dream scenario would be the Dems become the party that faces of against an even more progressive party, but that's probably not rational is it?
 

devSin

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,196
The Dems pointed out that the GOP sucks at healthcare in 2018 and that worked out. IDK maybe my thinking is not rational, but it beats sitting around waiting for the GOP to die a slow death while the rest of the world dies and people get their rights stripped away depending on where they live.
Every candidate is talking about the policies and actions of the current administration and GOP-led senate doing real harm to real people.

None of that is contrary to what Biden is saying.

The dream scenario would be the Dems become the party that faces of against an even more progressive party, but that's probably not rational is it?
The electorate would have to change dramatically to make a scenario like that plausible.

But dreams are still nice to have.
 

Kirblar

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
30,744
The Dems pointed out that the GOP sucks at healthcare in 2018 and that worked out. IDK maybe my thinking is not rational, but it beats sitting around waiting for the GOP to die a slow death while the rest of the world dies and people get their rights stripped away depending on where they live. Plus, even if the GOP dies, what happens when another conservative party takes their place? The cycle would just continue under different names. The dream scenario would be the Dems become the party that faces of against an even more progressive party, but that's probably not rational is it?
That's actually the playbook for beating guys like Trump, that "boring regular issues" approach is how they finally beat Berlusconi. Moral arguments get teflon'd off, you have to just run a boring standard election against them. And unfortunately this was backed up in both the 2016 results and 2016 ad focus testing where all the morality based stuff performed the worst. Clinton thought it was 1964 again but people were snowed. And also racially polarized along party lines.
 

sphagnum

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
16,058
I mean, I guess that exhortation didn't apply to the black president in the White House.

I'm sure if Obama had invited Cornell West to talk about something at some point he'd have jumped at the chance to do so regardless of whatever it was he complained about before.

I mean come on, West was part of the counter-protests at Unite the Right and claimed that Antifa saved his life. He's not a secret Nazi. He's a.) a media hound and b.) a devout Christian who will talk to any awful person and call them Brother or Sister while he's at it.

So has Glenn Greenwald. So has Michael Tracey.

He goes on this stuff because he's a shithead like them.

Lol who cares about Michael Tracey. Glenn went off the deep end ages ago.

Its kinda funny how hard they try to make friends with nazis (see also Virgil Texas hosting a party for nazis and Chelsea Manning doing an escape room with nazis) and yet we the filthy libs are the supposed scum of the earth.

Now let's be reasonable. There's awful people on both sides!
 

sphagnum

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
16,058
Ah, you're coming around on Biden and Republicans now lol.

I'm not pleased with West yucking it up with Milo, I'm just not surprised by it, nor do I really care that much in the grand scheme of things. Biden being a stupid doddering old man who thinks he can actually convince Mitch McConnell to do anything has vastly more and worse consequences.

The only betrayal that really hurt was Chelsea.

Edit: and Stalin
 
Dec 6, 2018
574
Every candidate is talking about the policies and actions of the current administration doing real harm to real people.
But not all of them are willing to back solutions that will go beyond the current admin and support the vast majority of people. Instead we are getting half measures that are sure to take two steps to the right in the legislature all in the effort to appear bipartisan, which further demotivates people to actually vote for the Dems.
That's actually the playbook for beating guys like Trump, that "boring regular issues" approach is how they finally beat Berlusconi. Moral arguments get teflon'd off, you have to just run a boring standard election against them. And unfortunately this was backed up in both the 2016 results and 2016 ad focus testing where all the morality based stuff performed the worst. Clinton thought it was 1964 again but people were snowed. And also racially polarized along party lines.

And then PD lost to Lega, and M5S. And M5S, despite their constant failures is still polling above PD. Plus, isn't he in the EU now?

I want to be clear, I don't think morality based campaigning is productive, but it should guide how we actually legislate, which clearly Biden is willing to compromise on. What I think would be far more effective, but I guess we will never get to know, is using the blowback from the GOP's reign to actually enact unabashedly progressive legislation that is popular and vital when actually in action. ACA was watered down but it was what led to 2018 wins. If the Dems actually take what they get from 2020 (knock on wood) and run with it ,serious progress may actually get made that is irreversible.
 
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