US PoliERA 2019 |OT5| She's got a plan for that, now sashay away

shadow_shogun

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,586
@mkraju
· 2m
New details of Trump Jr testimony
- says he didn’t tell his dad about Trump Tower meeting as Cohen alleged
- dismissed Cohen contradicting his testimony about Trump Tower Moscow
- said he only told Jared and Manafort about TT mtg despite Gates’ testimony
Manu Raju
✔
@mkraju
Topics that did not come up during Wednesday’s hearing were the hush money payments; Trump also not asked about the initially misleading statement crafted on Air Force One about the Trump Tower meeting. w/ @KaraScannell @jeremyherb

5
13:59 - 12 Jun 2019
 

Ithil

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,495
Warren seems to be putting the Native American stuff behind her by being on constant offense with really good ideas that stick and play out well on social media and traditional media.
You'll see people suddenly pretend to care about that, it'll be all they ever mention, if she pulls out in front. It'll be a good way to root out the bullshitters trying to push a narrative.
 

Ac30

Member
Oct 30, 2017
10,845
London
Warren seems to be putting the Native American stuff behind her by being on constant offense with really good ideas that stick and play out well on social media and traditional media.
Dropping that bomb early might have been a winning strat after all, as long as she doesn’t engage about it and considers it closed from now on.


It's starting in less than 15 minutes.

She’s really winning me over
 
Oct 27, 2017
4,583
That letter Martha Fudge read about Trump cultists being racists and morons is amazing. Watching the fascists in the GOP get butt-hurt about courting bigots and idiots--but I repeat myself--is giving me life
 

Loan Wolf

Member
Nov 9, 2017
1,082
Was initially leaning towards voting for Buttigieg in the primary but Warren has my vote barring any major hiccups that kill momentum. Hope she can win CA against the Biden machine.
 

Suiko

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,481
I imagine that if she gets closer to locking up the nom, Trump will INCESSANTLY call her Pocahontas, thereby reminding everyone of it. The media will report it too because they can't help themselves. It won't go away.
That's the beauty of the tactically nuking yourself like she did.
It's all burned out now, I don't think the story will catch on again.
 

Stinkles

343 Industries
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
12,200
So what explains Bernie’s slow drip of eroding support and increasing disapproval numbers?
Biden’s ruthlessly clever and incisively honest rhetoric and non stop town hall ground game.

But srsly— more and younger candidates with similar positions and less baggage in part thanks to him pushing those positions I’d guess


The numbers now aren’t really accurate except for name recognition so wait a month or two.
 

MetalGearZed

Member
Oct 30, 2017
983

Monmouth Nevada poll :

Biden 36%
Warren 19%
Sanders 13%
Buttigieg 7%
Harris 6%
Booker 2%
O’Rourke 2%
Yang 2%
Castro 1%
Gabbard 1%
Klobuchar 1%
Williamson 1%
Bullock <1%
Hickenlooper <1%
Inslee <1%
Messam <1%
Ryan <1%


Warren now second in a state poll as well. OH BOY
??? HOW IS GILLIBRAND DOING SO POORLY???

I mean it's pretty funny but also very confusing. I don't even know who Ryan and Messam even are and yet...
 

Kirblar

Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,018
So what explains Bernie’s slow drip of eroding support and increasing disapproval numbers?
His approval/disapproval numbers were always bad. Since the start of primary polling post-November '18 he's only been positive with democrats. He consistently loses independents. To figure out what happened with his support, you have to look at his crosstabs. You would expect some level of attrition going from a 1v1 to a multi-way race. But it hasn't been consistent between racial subgroups and the nature of the pattern reveals the problem. Bernie went from winning half of white voters, a quarter of black ones, and I think got slightly more than half of Hispanic ones, to consistently polling in the 15-20% range with all 3.

And so to figure out what's going on, you have to look at who made up his base last time. It was young people, socially conservative D/I voters, and far left ideological types. Bernie lost over half his previous white and Hispanic support while only losing a quarter of his black support. And Bernie still polls best with 18-34s. That strongly suggests that the core of his big decline is losing the socially conservative votes now that there are candidates more attractive than him on that axis, whereas before he benefitted strongly from being not-Hillary. A coalition of young and/or lefty types lines up with his campaign now generally performing equally well among all racial groups, but at a far worse electoral position.

The eroding support in the last month or so is probably just Warren defections, since if you're in it for the policy but don't care about socialism/capitalism specifics, you could easily flip/flop between them.
??? HOW IS GILLIBRAND DOING SO POORLY???

I mean it's pretty funny but also very confusing. I don't even know who Ryan and Messam even are and yet...
Running a NY State campaign on a national level. She and Beto made the same error.
 

spx54

Member
Mar 21, 2019
971

purely anecdotal but sort of concerning nonetheless

is it possible the touching scandal strengthened him with the boomer voters?
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,143
So what explains Bernie’s slow drip of eroding support and increasing disapproval numbers?
Warren is eating dude's lunch.

Why? IMO, Warren is Bernie except a) likable and b) better able to explain the purpose and function of her policy proposals than he is with his proposals.

Like, Bernie is this crochety, unsmiling dude that barely acknowledges that there are race issues that aren't solvable via addressing classism. Warren is friendly and obviously smart, but also able to connect on a human level and explain her policies frankly. Also, American Indian gaffe aside, she gets that there are problems that I'll have as someone who isn't white that won't be solved by making sure our financial institutions stay in line.
 

shadow_shogun

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,586