US PoliERA 2019 |OT5| She's got a plan for that, now sashay away

LordByron28

Member
Nov 5, 2017
990

What is going on, is this a glitch in the Matrix?
I was listening to a lengthy interview with AOC held back in April. She said she wasnt going to name drop anyone but that she was friends with some Republicans. She said one in particular came into her office and questioned her extensively. They actually became good friends and agree a lot on policy. She said that the individual was this starch, proud, nationalistic, and very conservative. However, they actually agreed on a lot of things. That this individual hated Walmart and thought they were ruining the country. They were just very afraid to speak up on some of their beliefs because of the repercussions. There were a lot more things she talked about in that situation. Based on what she said, I'm starting to think she was talking about Ted Cruz. She said she wouldnt reveal their identity so as not to jeopardize their reelection chances.
 

spx54

Member
Mar 21, 2019
1,026
I think its safe to say Bernie has one of the worse comms teams of all the candidates. Calling Trump a "corporate socialist" lmao what is that shit
 

nomis

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,009
Amazing how its always "default to referring to a person only by their identity" with you and others.
oh, west is much more to me than a black man who shares some of my views and diverges on others

whereas what you show him to be for you is just someone who must be dismissed out of hand because of some alt-right transitive property bullshit

try showing some respect for people who have done infinitely more than you have in the fight for justice
 

chadskin

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,577
With the way Texas is trending Ted Cruz probably realized he should be less of a shitbag if he wants to keep his seat for the next 40-50 years.
 
OP
OP
Aaron

Aaron

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,888
I was listening to a lengthy interview with AOC held back in April. She said she wasnt going to name drop anyone but that she was friends with some Republicans. She said one in particular came into her office and questioned her extensively. They actually became good friends and agree a lot on policy. She said that the individual was this starch, proud, nationalistic, and very conservative. However, they actually agreed on a lot of things. That this individual hated Walmart and thought they were ruining the country. They were just very afraid to speak up on some of their beliefs because of the repercussions. There were a lot more things she talked about in that situation. Based on what she said, I'm starting to think she was talking about Ted Cruz. She said she wouldnt reveal their identity so as not to jeopardize their reelection chances.
It's a lot harder to be a bitter, hateful asshole towards them dirty Godless liberals when you actually see them face to face.
 

Soul Skater

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,096
With the way Texas is trending Ted Cruz probably realized he should be less of a shitbag if he wants to keep his seat for the next 40-50 years.
These people have massive egos and they often float about not just how they won but by how much

Him only winning by like 2% I can guarantee shook him and hurt his ego massively. Especially for a guy with presidential ambitions
 

Tukarrs

Member
Oct 27, 2017
969

I don’t get the point of unskewing polls unless it’s to not let your supporters get depressed
All polling companies skew their polls based on what they think the voting demographics will be. The Sanders campaign thinks that the youth turnout will be much higher than these polls are expecting. (2018 indicates that youth participation rates have increased.)

The truth is that nobody knows what the exact age composition of the primary voter will be, so pointing that out should not be verboten.
 

Kirblar

Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,148
oh, west is much more to me than a black man who shares some of my views and diverges on others

whereas what you show him to be for you is just someone who must be dismissed out of hand because of some alt-right transitive property bullshit

try showing some respect for people who have done infinitely more than you have in the fight for justice
Ah yes, the classic "show some respect" argument for when you're predominantly motivated by a desire for status dominance.

Appearing on an alt-right show run by Nazi-types like Milo and McInnes is to normalize it. There's an argument that the costs outweigh the benefits with Fox News because of the ability to reach their audience. With Milo and friends, they currently have an audience we should want to keep from growing. Attracting attention by allowing them to land a interview with a national celebrity does the exact opposite of that.

West gets dismissed prior to this because he's a guy who started hating Obama after West felt he was snubbed. It wasn't about politics, it was about West feeling he was not shown the respect he felt he deserved, because he's a petty narcissistic asshole who took it personally.
 

spx54

Member
Mar 21, 2019
1,026
People who worked on his 16 campaign said the 2020 team is even more composed of "true believers" than that campaign was.
his campaign is probably ending in total disaster then. shame.

I really don't think Bernie can beat Biden with all this messaging tailored towards the extremely online crowd. I think warren is much more well equipped to take Biden down in pretty much every way.
 

nomis

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,009
Ah yes, the classic "show some respect" argument for when you're predominantly motivated by a desire for status dominance.

Appearing on an alt-right show run by Nazi-types like Milo and McInnes is to normalize it. There's an argument that the costs outweigh the benefits with Fox News because of the ability to reach their audience. With Milo and friends, they currently have an audience we should want to keep from growing. Attracting attention by allowing them to land a interview with a national celebrity does the exact opposite of that.

West gets dismissed prior to this because he's a guy who started hating Obama after West felt he was snubbed. It wasn't about politics, it was about West feeling he was not shown the respect he felt he deserved, because he's a petty narcissistic asshole who took it personally.
“cornell west is hanging out with milo and gavin because he’s a shithead like them”

wow damn dude i just can’t handle your substantive critique of West’s problematic ideas about discourse with the other side

your logic for why he didn’t have real reasons to criticize obama is tautological
 
Oct 27, 2017
4,584
Instead of wasting brain cells arguing whether soft-shoeing for fascists is an objectively bad thing, we should be happy when these fuckwits are separated from whatever money they have

Daily Beast Contributor Wins $4.1 Million From Neo-Nazi for ISIS Smear
 

Double 0

Member
Nov 5, 2017
1,354
I mean... West also did a dumbass interview with Candace Owens on Fox. So like, I don’t think Kirk is that wrong.

At best, he has a blind spot in not understanding how platforming works. Probably from the religious shit mixed in with his need for exposure/media appearances
 

The Adder

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,903
I mean... West also did a dumbass interview with Candace Owens on Fox. So like, I don’t think Kirk is that wrong.

At best, he has a blind spot in not understanding how platforming works. Probably from the religious shit mixed in with his need for exposure/media appearances
Can't call someone a house negro then turn round to go shuck and jive for the folks'd see you back in chains if they had their druthers.

Edit: Corrected autofill error
 
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Kirblar

Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,148
Cruz is very good at this and a much more savvy politician than people give him credit for

Beto is a moron. Cornyn is more beatable
It's not even that aspect that got Cruz a win- if the margins in Hispanic areas relative to Hillary's performance had matched Beto's overperformance elsewhere, Beto wins. Unfortunately, they didn't, Beto underperformed relative to Hillary's performance (which was itself better than Obama '12.) Cruz's team was legitimately sweating on election night.

That difference in margins is the big reason Cornyn is vulnerable while Cruz barely pulled through and Beto not going for round 2 is going to go down as a colossal error in judgment.
All polling companies skew their polls based on what they think the voting demographics will be. The Sanders campaign thinks that the youth turnout will be much higher than these polls are expecting. (2018 indicates that youth participation rates have increased.)

The truth is that nobody knows what the exact age composition of the primary voter will be, so pointing that out should not be verboten.
The youth turnout rates in 2016 didn't change. The "revolution" of untapped voters Sanders was hoping for didn't emerge, instead another one did in November with an assist from Russia's micro-targeting.. And while yes, youth turnout did go up In 2018, turnout was up across the board, offsetting much, if any, advantage that youth-focused campaigns were hoping for.

"NOBODY CAN POSSIBLY KNOW THE FUTURE SO EVEN ATTEMPTING TO TRY IS POINTLESS" arguments are absolutely terrible. This one included. (Is there an "appeal to _____" trope for this?)

We have a very good guess what the age composition would be based on prior election data, and that data will be used to model it. It's very possible to be off, but it doesn't mean that you shouldn't be modeling it, and complaints from a candidate's campaign about the composition model fall into the same boat as complaints about not having enough debates or superdelegates having too much power all fall into the same category: the excuses of those running a losing campaign.
The scrub mentality of "we would always win if not for the cheaters/kryptonite/meddling kids" is the mentality of a someone who can't adapt. And as such,
campaigns that are continuously complaining about process minutiae almost inevitably wind up losing.
 

Soul Skater

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,096

purely anecdotal but sort of concerning nonetheless

is it possible the touching scandal strengthened him with the boomer voters?
I actually think it is

Virtually every older person I talked to about it thought the entire thing was ridiculous

Also seem to like how he unapologetically hates young twitter peoples problems

Really I think Obama made an entire generation of young people think the dem electorate was something better than it actually is
 

Kirblar

Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,148
“cornell west is hanging out with milo and gavin because he’s a shithead like them”

wow damn dude i just can’t handle your substantive critique of West’s problematic ideas about discourse with the other side

your logic for why he didn’t have real reasons to criticize obama is tautological
"Them" was referring to Glenn Greenwald and Michael Tracey.
 

Suiko

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,498
Instead of wasting brain cells arguing whether soft-shoeing for fascists is an objectively bad thing, we should be happy when these fuckwits are separated from whatever money they have

Daily Beast Contributor Wins $4.1 Million From Neo-Nazi for ISIS Smear
Why not just sit down and have a conversation with them, preferably on a show featuring Nazis?
I know exactly who to send.
 

MizerMan

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,991
Instead of wasting brain cells arguing whether soft-shoeing for fascists is an objectively bad thing, we should be happy when these fuckwits are separated from whatever money they have

Daily Beast Contributor Wins $4.1 Million From Neo-Nazi for ISIS Smear
Good
 

PantherLotus

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,121
The thing about polls is that there are only ever 2 good answers, no matter the poll:

1. you're ahead -- this is proof that our message resonates with [constituency]
2. you're behind -- I need to do a better job of getting our message out, and [message]

Anything else is off script and becomes the story. Either not dealing with reality or becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. In this, it is a game of gotcha. Stay on message, folks.
 

nomis

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,009
"Them" was referring to Glenn Greenwald and Michael Tracey.
my bad.

still can’t believe that you can’t conceive of obama snubbing cornell being part and parcel of him slowly becoming a massive disappointment for anyone interested in something other than incrementalism, but rather that west was “just mad”
 

Kirblar

Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,148
my bad.

still can’t believe that you can’t conceive of obama snubbing cornell being part and parcel of him slowly becoming a massive disappointment for anyone interested in something other than incrementalism, but rather that west was “just mad”
It's because it explains this type of behavior:
Can't call someone a house negro then turn round to go shuck and jive for the folks'd see you back in chance if they had their druthers.
There are people who are intellectually consistent pain in the asses to everyone to a degree. And people can certainly change their opinion over time. But the types of double standards at play here - "I think Al Sharpton is a HN for the Obama admin, but it's totally cool if I go on Milo's TV show!" aren't ones borne of that type of consistency or change, they're borne of other things. And it's usually just hatred. Like the way Tracey/Greenwald's embraced Bill Barr's summary of the Mueller Report because it was bad for Dems.
 

Tukarrs

Member
Oct 27, 2017
969
The youth turnout rates in 2016 didn't change. The "revolution" of untapped voters Sanders was hoping for didn't emerge, instead another one did in November with an assist from Russia's micro-targeting.. And while yes, youth turnout did go up In 2018, turnout was up across the board, offsetting much, if any, advantage that youth-focused campaigns were hoping for.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-polls-missed-bernie-sanders-michigan-upset/

Faiz is essentially making the argument in that article.

"NOBODY CAN POSSIBLY KNOW THE FUTURE SO EVEN ATTEMPTING TO TRY IS POINTLESS" arguments are absolutely terrible. This one included. (Is there an "appeal to _____" trope for this?)


We have a very good guess what the age composition would be based on prior election data, and that data will be used to model it. It's very possible to be off, but it doesn't mean that you shouldn't be modeling it, and complaints from a candidate's campaign about the composition model fall into the same boat as complaints about not having enough debates or superdelegates having too much power all fall into the same category: the excuses of those running a losing campaign.
The scrub mentality of "we would always win if not for the cheaters/kryptonite/meddling kids" is the mentality of a someone who can't adapt. And as such,

campaigns that are continuously complaining about process minutiae almost inevitably wind up losing.
Well it's great that I'm not making that argument.

I'm not saying that people shouldn't try to model the future. I'm saying that no one knows exactly what kind of youth turnout will be. 2016 was transformative in injecting energy in young voters. Data from 2016 and earlier will not necessarily capture that.

Reminder that Faiz's statement is in reference to a Biden vs Bernie in which there absolutely is a generational divide in opinion.
One of the core strategic pillars for the Sanders campaign is getting the highest young voters turnout ever. And Sanders have said multiple times that it needs to be even higher than 2018.

Past data is relevant to a point. There hasnt been a Black President until Obama. There has never been a Woman or Chinese/Indian-descent or a twin either but there might very well be one elected next year.
 

JesseEwiak

Member
Oct 31, 2017
822
my bad.

still can’t believe that you can’t conceive of obama snubbing cornell being part and parcel of him slowly becoming a massive disappointment for anyone interested in something other than incrementalism, but rather that west was “just mad”
If I was the Biden campaign, I'd offer to pay for Cornel to campaign for Bernie in South Carolina (as he has been doing), because his continual attack of the first African American President is not going to endear himself to the other 98% of voting African Americans in the country.

The Left has to realize if they want to take power that the most powerful voting demographic in the primaries loves Obama, and doesn't think of him as a neoliberal sellout.
 

shadow_shogun

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,617
@mkraju
24-15, House Oversight votes to hold Bill Barr and Wilbur Ross in contempt over defying a Democratic subpoena for info on citizenship question of 2020 census, setting the stage for a court fight with the Trump administration. Justin Amash voted for the motion
16:41 - 12 Jun 2019
 

Soul Skater

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,096
It's not even that aspect that got Cruz a win- if the margins in Hispanic areas relative to Hillary's performance had matched Beto's overperformance elsewhere, Beto wins. Unfortunately, they didn't, Beto underperformed relative to Hillary's performance (which was itself better than Obama '12.) Cruz's team was legitimately sweating on election night.

That difference in margins is the big reason Cornyn is vulnerable while Cruz barely pulled through and Beto not going for round 2 is going to go down as a colossal error in judgment.
This is why Biden/Beto with Castro for Senate is the best strategy going forward

I think Castro might lose a lot of the white suburban voters Beto won over but he’ll definitely do significantly better with Latinos especially against cornyn. Putting both options for voters might be able to maintain both. That has a chance of working.

We need to spread out as much as possible because Trumpism perfectly caters to the rust belt. We need new states and actually start flipping the sunbelt
 
Oct 26, 2017
1,929
Hope Hicks is going to testify to the House, but behind closed doors...

What's the point if it's behind closed doors. Yes let's just give the public more transcripts to read.
 

shadow_shogun

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,617
@kylegriffin1
New from WaPo: Hope Hicks has agreed to testify before the House Judiciary Committee next Wednesday, according to people familiar with the matter. The testimony will occur behind closed doors.https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/former-white-house-aide-hicks-agrees-to-testify-to-house-panel-investigating-trump/2019/06/12/6f687f84-8d47-11e9-b162-8f6f41ec3c04_story.html …
16:50 - 12 Jun 2019