US PoliERA 2019 |OT5| She's got a plan for that, now sashay away

Royalan

Yeah I'm in my bag, but I'm in his too.
Moderator
Oct 24, 2017
2,501
There has not been a day since Biden had announced that did not make me facepalm.

 

Blader

Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,939
People like Milo are cancers on society and sitting down with them or giving them any kind of platform is completely indefensible. Like why is this even arguable? The true nature or goals of these people should not be anyone's blindspot at this point.
 

spx54

Member
Mar 21, 2019
1,060
Seems so :0(

Really while I think Warren can beat Bernie I don’t think she can beat Biden. Bernie had a chance to win over much of Biden’s “the internet SJWs are ruining everything for us” Democratic voters where as I don’t think Warren can.
given their history I don't think anyone is as well positioned as warren to kick Biden's ass
 

Soul Skater

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,132
given their history I don't think anyone is as well positioned as warren to kick Biden's ass
Well see.

Being from Massachusetts will help, because NH loves MA politicians. But as of now Biden’s first four state leads seem more dominant than his national polling. He could easily sweep the first four

But Bernie being from Vermont will split their voters and hand the state to Biden. Someone has to show better signs of life in the early states or this will be over before Super Tuesday

It’s really why I think in order for him to go down one of the two will need to drop before NH.... but there’s basically a zero percent chance of that happening
 

Kirblar

Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,260
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-polls-missed-bernie-sanders-michigan-upset/

Faiz is essentially making the argument in that article.


Well it's great that I'm not making that argument.

I'm not saying that people shouldn't try to model the future. I'm saying that no one knows exactly what kind of youth turnout will be. 2016 was transformative in injecting energy in young voters. Data from 2016 and earlier will not necessarily capture that.

Reminder that Faiz's statement is in reference to a Biden vs Bernie in which there absolutely is a generational divide in opinion.
One of the core strategic pillars for the Sanders campaign is getting the highest young voters turnout ever. And Sanders have said multiple times that it needs to be even higher than 2018.

Past data is relevant to a point. There hasnt been a Black President until Obama. There has never been a Woman or Chinese/Indian-descent or a twin either but there might very well be one elected next year.
If it come down to Biden vs Bernie, Bernie will lose as things currently stand because Bernie will win black voters and older voters, and those demographics are worth far, far more as part of a political coalition because they're just plain bigger.

Candidates hoping for a surge In younger voters to save them is just them hoping Lucy doesn't pull the football THIS time.
 

Psamtik

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,277
Yeah it was NY times story 2 days ago, he's loosing in Michigan and Pennsylvanian among others in internal polls and they showed him but he told the pollsters to say otherwise because he's confident hes actually winning them.
I'm super alright with his dumb ass thinking that he already has this sewn up. He can just keep spending his work days watching TV, giving halfhearted attention to the campaign, and get totally blindsided.
 

Tamanon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,752
It's still a delegate game. Iowa and NH will matter for the early press, but beyond that, it's all about percentages.
 

spx54

Member
Mar 21, 2019
1,060
If it come down to Biden vs Bernie, Bernie will lose as things currently stand because Bernie will win black voters and older voters, and those demographics are worth far, far more as part of a political coalition because they're just plain bigger.

Candidates hoping for a surge In younger voters to save them is just them hoping Lucy doesn't pull the football THIS time.
you think warren can be competitive enough with black voters?
 

Soul Skater

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,132
It's still a delegate game. Iowa and NH will matter for the early press, but beyond that, it's all about percentages.
I don’t think it should be underestimated how much the early press influences how voters vote in later contests

Ie I don’t think Trump would have won had he not won NH. The “loser” narrative would have started after losing both the first to states.

If Biden wins IA, NH, and SC the race is over regardless how many voters or what percentage he wins them by
 

SneakersSO

Member
Oct 24, 2017
321
North America
What's worse is that now every Trump witness is going to want to testify behind closed doors.

Yeah, there's going to be no impeachment. Democrats are spineless.
I'm already exhausted at the thought of the amount of infighting that is going to spawn from when we ultimately lose the 2020 election to Trump, only to have everyone say 'See! We should've impeached when we could've!'

Meanwhile, we'll still have Pelosi making up dumb BS excuses as to why it was a good idea not to, and the Democrats will cement their legacy as the party that actually allowed the powers of the constitution to erode on their watch.
 

Kirblar

Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,260
This is as dumb as saying making "a more perfect union" is racist because slavery was legal at the time of the Constitution.
Was going for snark (because of Sanders' messaging/campaign issues) and whiffed there.
you think warren can be competitive enough with black voters?
I actually have no idea. It's a known unknown to me. Sanders, Pete- no. Harris, Biden- yes. Warren? I got nothing.
 
OP
OP
Aaron

Aaron

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,916


I really do think she is the most detestable person in the Senate. Her game is awful.

Now I'm having flashbacks on Olympia Snowe during the ACA battle and I want to scream.
Remember when Olympia Snowe's supposed hang-up with the ACA was the public option, and tried to find ways to compromise with Democrats to include a version of it, until they finally just chucked the whole thing and she still wouldn't fucking vote for it

Fuck the moderate darlings
 

OmniOne

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,312
I keep thinking about during the 08 primary battle, when Hillary hit Obama hard about how the GOP is intransigent and you have to fight them tooth and nail, while Obama was preaching peace and love and bipartisanship, and Hillary got knocked for it at the time for being mean to him.

And here we are...
 

Absent

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,894
People like Milo are cancers on society and sitting down with them or giving them any kind of platform is completely indefensible. Like why is this even arguable? The true nature or goals of these people should not be anyone's blindspot at this point.
Pretty much. I would add that we’ve listed to these people enough and at this point being the bigger person is hurting you more by letting them spout nonsense without any actual repercussions.
 

Autodidact

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,193
I keep thinking about during the 08 primary battle, when Hillary hit Obama hard about how the GOP is intransigent and you have to fight them tooth and nail, while Obama was preaching peace and love and bipartisanship, and Hillary got knocked for it at the time for being mean to him.

And here we are...
Yep. Hillary had been there and been burned. She's known what they really are since about 1994.
 

Linkura

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,648
I was listening to a lengthy interview with AOC held back in April. She said she wasnt going to name drop anyone but that she was friends with some Republicans. She said one in particular came into her office and questioned her extensively. They actually became good friends and agree a lot on policy. She said that the individual was this starch, proud, nationalistic, and very conservative. However, they actually agreed on a lot of things. That this individual hated Walmart and thought they were ruining the country. They were just very afraid to speak up on some of their beliefs because of the repercussions. There were a lot more things she talked about in that situation. Based on what she said, I'm starting to think she was talking about Ted Cruz. She said she wouldnt reveal their identity so as not to jeopardize their reelection chances.


Duncan Hunter and his wife were both indicted. Looks like she's about to turn on him.
I've been waiting for movement on this. Yasssssss
I like justice being served, but we have no chance of winning CA-50 as an open seat.
Even so, this fucker needs to be in jail. I'd rather have a relatively law-abiding R than a flagrant criminal R.
There has not been a day since Biden had announced that did not make me facepalm.

"Nobody has done more than me for _________"

Still using Trump's playbook. Forma please fuck this guy up in a couple weeks.
 

Retro

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,435
Love the image of angry old white grandpa pointing in the face of a woman just asking for control of her own fucking body.
 

Mulligan

Member
Oct 29, 2017
432
Someone please find a good chumming the waters .gif for the debate. It must be posted every time Biden does something dumb.
 

Teggy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,883
Yes, I’m sure trump is leading in questions like, who do you think is more likely to end roe v. wade.

 

thepotatoman

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,395
Denver
I don’t think it should be underestimated how much the early press influences how voters vote in later contests

Ie I don’t think Trump would have won had he not won NH. The “loser” narrative would have started after losing both the first to states.

If Biden wins IA, NH, and SC the race is over regardless how many voters or what percentage he wins them by
Indeed. IA and NH are probably the single biggest reason early national primary polls are wrong so often.

The good news is Biden slightly underperformed iowa in 2008 and appears to be doing the same in 2020 polling. I think he'd be pretty screwed if he lost Iowa, seeing how much of his pitch is electability and inevitably.