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US PoliERA 2019 |OT5| She's got a plan for that, now sashay away
- Thread starter Aaron
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I hate how this country has a worse attention span than my cat.
Well, look at it this way: There will invariably be another massacre at a school or in a public place where ARs are used while the Democratic Party has control of all three chambers, should they gain such control. That will give an opening for an AR ban to be pushed through.
I don't get the point of unskewing polls unless it's to not let your supporters get depressed
Coppercab is a name I have not heard in a long time
Edit: Double post. My bad
I was listening to a lengthy interview with AOC held back in April. She said she wasnt going to name drop anyone but that she was friends with some Republicans. She said one in particular came into her office and questioned her extensively. They actually became good friends and agree a lot on policy. She said that the individual was this starch, proud, nationalistic, and very conservative. However, they actually agreed on a lot of things. That this individual hated Walmart and thought they were ruining the country. They were just very afraid to speak up on some of their beliefs because of the repercussions. There were a lot more things she talked about in that situation. Based on what she said, I'm starting to think she was talking about Ted Cruz. She said she wouldnt reveal their identity so as not to jeopardize their reelection chances.
"We just aren't fighting the current administration. We are fighting the establishment and the main stream media!" Is something that reporters have heard supporters say when asked about it.
oh, west is much more to me than a black man who shares some of my views and diverges on others
whereas what you show him to be for you is just someone who must be dismissed out of hand because of some alt-right transitive property bullshit
try showing some respect for people who have done infinitely more than you have in the fight for justice
Cruz is very good at this and a much more savvy politician than people give him credit for
Beto is a moron. Cornyn is more beatable
OP
OP
It's a lot harder to be a bitter, hateful asshole towards them dirty Godless liberals when you actually see them face to face.
These people have massive egos and they often float about not just how they won but by how much
Him only winning by like 2% I can guarantee shook him and hurt his ego massively. Especially for a guy with presidential ambitions
Yep, the only issue is they rationalize it with the ones they meet being "one of the good ones" while the others are still the nameless faceless "other" that must be defeated
All polling companies skew their polls based on what they think the voting demographics will be. The Sanders campaign thinks that the youth turnout will be much higher than these polls are expecting. (2018 indicates that youth participation rates have increased.)
The truth is that nobody knows what the exact age composition of the primary voter will be, so pointing that out should not be verboten.
Ah yes, the classic "show some respect" argument for when you're predominantly motivated by a desire for status dominance.
Appearing on an alt-right show run by Nazi-types like Milo and McInnes is to normalize it. There's an argument that the costs outweigh the benefits with Fox News because of the ability to reach their audience. With Milo and friends, they currently have an audience we should want to keep from growing. Attracting attention by allowing them to land a interview with a national celebrity does the exact opposite of that.
West gets dismissed prior to this because he's a guy who started hating Obama after West felt he was snubbed. It wasn't about politics, it was about West feeling he was not shown the respect he felt he deserved, because he's a petty narcissistic asshole who took it personally.
People who worked on his 16 campaign said the 2020 team is even more composed of "true believers" than that campaign was.
his campaign is probably ending in total disaster then. shame.
I really don't think Bernie can beat Biden with all this messaging tailored towards the extremely online crowd. I think warren is much more well equipped to take Biden down in pretty much every way.
"cornell west is hanging out with milo and gavin because he's a shithead like them"
wow damn dude i just can't handle your substantive critique of West's problematic ideas about discourse with the other side
your logic for why he didn't have real reasons to criticize obama is tautological
AKA the Trump effect. If that were the case, then Biden is the only path to a lot of Obama>Trump voters.
Instead of wasting brain cells arguing whether soft-shoeing for fascists is an objectively bad thing, we should be happy when these fuckwits are separated from whatever money they have
Daily Beast Contributor Wins $4.1 Million From Neo-Nazi for ISIS Smear
Daily Beast Contributor Wins $4.1 Million From Neo-Nazi for ISIS Smear
I mean... West also did a dumbass interview with Candace Owens on Fox. So like, I don't think Kirk is that wrong.
At best, he has a blind spot in not understanding how platforming works. Probably from the religious shit mixed in with his need for exposure/media appearances
At best, he has a blind spot in not understanding how platforming works. Probably from the religious shit mixed in with his need for exposure/media appearances
Duncan blaming his wife for the crime probably wasn't the best idea
Can't call someone a house negro then turn round to go shuck and jive for the folks'd see you back in chains if they had their druthers.
Edit: Corrected autofill error
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It's not even that aspect that got Cruz a win- if the margins in Hispanic areas relative to Hillary's performance had matched Beto's overperformance elsewhere, Beto wins. Unfortunately, they didn't, Beto underperformed relative to Hillary's performance (which was itself better than Obama '12.) Cruz's team was legitimately sweating on election night.
That difference in margins is the big reason Cornyn is vulnerable while Cruz barely pulled through and Beto not going for round 2 is going to go down as a colossal error in judgment.
The youth turnout rates in 2016 didn't change. The "revolution" of untapped voters Sanders was hoping for didn't emerge, instead another one did in November with an assist from Russia's micro-targeting.. And while yes, youth turnout did go up In 2018, turnout was up across the board, offsetting much, if any, advantage that youth-focused campaigns were hoping for.
"NOBODY CAN POSSIBLY KNOW THE FUTURE SO EVEN ATTEMPTING TO TRY IS POINTLESS" arguments are absolutely terrible. This one included. (Is there an "appeal to _____" trope for this?)
We have a very good guess what the age composition would be based on prior election data, and that data will be used to model it. It's very possible to be off, but it doesn't mean that you shouldn't be modeling it, and complaints from a candidate's campaign about the composition model fall into the same boat as complaints about not having enough debates or superdelegates having too much power all fall into the same category: the excuses of those running a losing campaign.
The scrub mentality of "we would always win if not for the cheaters/kryptonite/meddling kids" is the mentality of a someone who can't adapt. And as such,
campaigns that are continuously complaining about process minutiae almost inevitably wind up losing.
I actually think it is
Virtually every older person I talked to about it thought the entire thing was ridiculous
Also seem to like how he unapologetically hates young twitter peoples problems
Really I think Obama made an entire generation of young people think the dem electorate was something better than it actually is
Why not just sit down and have a conversation with them, preferably on a show featuring Nazis?
I know exactly who to send.
The thing about polls is that there are only ever 2 good answers, no matter the poll:
1. you're ahead -- this is proof that our message resonates with [constituency]
2. you're behind -- I need to do a better job of getting our message out, and [message]
Anything else is off script and becomes the story. Either not dealing with reality or becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. In this, it is a game of gotcha. Stay on message, folks.
1. you're ahead -- this is proof that our message resonates with [constituency]
2. you're behind -- I need to do a better job of getting our message out, and [message]
Anything else is off script and becomes the story. Either not dealing with reality or becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. In this, it is a game of gotcha. Stay on message, folks.
She's 44 and an opportunist, plenty of years ahead of her. She gets a deal, his ass is toast.
my bad.
still can't believe that you can't conceive of obama snubbing cornell being part and parcel of him slowly becoming a massive disappointment for anyone interested in something other than incrementalism, but rather that west was "just mad"
It's because it explains this type of behavior:
There are people who are intellectually consistent pain in the asses to everyone to a degree. And people can certainly change their opinion over time. But the types of double standards at play here - "I think Al Sharpton is a HN for the Obama admin, but it's totally cool if I go on Milo's TV show!" aren't ones borne of that type of consistency or change, they're borne of other things. And it's usually just hatred. Like the way Tracey/Greenwald's embraced Bill Barr's summary of the Mueller Report because it was bad for Dems.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-polls-missed-bernie-sanders-michigan-upset/
Faiz is essentially making the argument in that article.
Well it's great that I'm not making that argument.
I'm not saying that people shouldn't try to model the future. I'm saying that no one knows exactly what kind of youth turnout will be. 2016 was transformative in injecting energy in young voters. Data from 2016 and earlier will not necessarily capture that.
Reminder that Faiz's statement is in reference to a Biden vs Bernie in which there absolutely is a generational divide in opinion.
One of the core strategic pillars for the Sanders campaign is getting the highest young voters turnout ever. And Sanders have said multiple times that it needs to be even higher than 2018.
Past data is relevant to a point. There hasnt been a Black President until Obama. There has never been a Woman or Chinese/Indian-descent or a twin either but there might very well be one elected next year.
If I was the Biden campaign, I'd offer to pay for Cornel to campaign for Bernie in South Carolina (as he has been doing), because his continual attack of the first African American President is not going to endear himself to the other 98% of voting African Americans in the country.
The Left has to realize if they want to take power that the most powerful voting demographic in the primaries loves Obama, and doesn't think of him as a neoliberal sellout.
I would wonder who the NRCC would court to run in the district in 2020 which would be a blue wave year.
This is why Biden/Beto with Castro for Senate is the best strategy going forward
I think Castro might lose a lot of the white suburban voters Beto won over but he'll definitely do significantly better with Latinos especially against cornyn. Putting both options for voters might be able to maintain both. That has a chance of working.
We need to spread out as much as possible because Trumpism perfectly caters to the rust belt. We need new states and actually start flipping the sunbelt
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