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lmcfigs

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
12,091
all the tariffs and the delays of tariffs to come are doing an excellent job at masking whatever is actually happening to the stock market
 

AnotherNils

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,936
So PRRI did an abortion poll. I kinda wish it was a little more granular as the options presented are a little too binary, but I'm trying to correlate abortion support to state's legislation. To me, it looks like Ohio really overstepped its support. Will it have repercussions?


AVA_Abortion_fig_5.png
 

Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,077
Minneapolis
To me, it looks like Ohio really overstepped its support. Will it have repercussions?
Probably not - Ohio is brutally gerrymandered. The generic vote in their state legislature was 52-48 GOP last year, and that was still enough for the Republicans to walk away with a supermajority (61-38).

Still rather shit that Cordray lost, Democrats really needed him to pull through to ensure they wouldn't be totally screwed on policy.

Only silver lining is that they kind of passed redistricting reform, but the way it's set up is still stacked in favor of the incumbent party (you know, the Republicans).
 

AnotherNils

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,936
Probably not - Ohio is brutally gerrymandered. The generic vote in their state legislature was 52-48 GOP last year, and that was still enough for the Republicans to walk away with a supermajority (61-38).
I mean isn't the general idea here that gerrymanders start to buckle when there's a strong shift – like from a populace opposed to their overstepping on a policy? Plus, aren't there state-wide offices this could affect in 2020?
 

Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,077
Minneapolis
I mean isn't the general idea here that gerrymanders start to buckle when there's a strong shift – like from a populace opposed to their overstepping on a policy? Plus, aren't there state-wide offices this could affect in 2020?
There actually are two Supreme Court seats up in 2020, both held by Republicans. If they were to flip, Democrats would have a majority on the State Supreme Court after they won two seats last year.

If there's anything to give me optimism about Ohio, it's that. A lot of people disregard Sherrod Brown's win as personal appeal, which while true, doesn't negate flipping those two seats (one was against an incumbent and the Democrat still pulled it off relatively easy). I'd say Democrats still have something of a chance in Ohio, it seems like the state is about where Indiana and Missouri were ten years ago, winnable under the right circumstances.

The gerrymander though I don't think is going to break anytime soon, only because I think we would have seen that happen last year. The reason gerrymanders are failing in states like Texas, Georgia etc is because the demographics in those states are zooming left (can't account for blue suburbanites in 2018 when drawing maps in 2010 to say nothing of new minority voters), whereas Ohio is dying and moving away from the Democrats naturally.

Best chance at Ohio having fair maps for the next decade imo is flipping those two Supreme Court seats to ensure a line of defense against GOP gerrymanders.
 

adam387

Member
Nov 27, 2017
5,215
No, but having an actual billionaire on stage would be quite the target for Bernie and Warren.
See I have issue with this. There's nothing intrinsically wrong with being a rich person...provided they pay their fair share. Making every single millionaire and billionaire into some spooky boogie man doesn't make sense to me.
 

dlauv

Prophet of Truth - One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,509
Beto's favorables went up by 7% and, more importantly, his unfavorables down by 4%. That's less unfavorable than Biden, Sanders, Warren, Harris, and Booker, per Morning Consult. Room to grow, but it also shows how fickle voters can be.
 

AnotherNils

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,936
See I have issue with this. There's nothing intrinsically wrong with being a rich person...provided they pay their fair share. Making every single millionaire and billionaire into some spooky boogie man doesn't make sense to me.
Nuance has no place in politics. It's why the whole M4A thing is a giant messy pain in the ass.
 

dlauv

Prophet of Truth - One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,509
Bernie and his supporters are going to ruin this primary again, aren't they?
You just noticed?

I don't think Bernie, who has the most DNC endorsements of any candidate and is losing ground to Warren, will try and play the "rigged" card again tho.

I guess Bernie is the new media whipping-boy after Beto hulked out for a couple days. That's ok tho, because Bernie supporters were totally there for it. Let them get their just desserts. I'm sure NYT will move on or clarify tho - Bernie has too big of a following coming after them to ignore.
 
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Tamanon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,720
I'm just ready for Iowa to happen, and we can suddenly decide on if we like caucuses or not again, based on who we support.

I'm still a no on caucuses!
 
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