US PoliEra 2019 |OT6| Have You Hurd About These GOP Retirements?

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Ac30

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Oct 30, 2017
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I would not be surprised if some economic levers were pulled to forestall any recession for a bit.
The Fed is supposed to independently set monetary policy regardless of political inclinations to prevent recessions.

They did indicate they’re not cutting rates to save Trump from the trade war’s effects though.

Edit: S&P500 opening nearly 2% down, great.
 
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shinra-bansho

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Oct 25, 2017
2,216
They should really just cull the rest of the field from the debates. Maybe Booker and Klobberer can stay or something.

Also this is kind of pertinent - it's basically the equivalent of candidate ceilings? At least in terms of current opinions.

Also Harris can probably recover with a more solid performance - but she'd probably pull from Warren more than anyone else.
 
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Wilsongt

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Oct 25, 2017
11,373
It turns our you really can't run a country the size of the US as a business.

Who ever would have guessed?
 

Masseyme

Banned
May 23, 2019
379
Why are people acting like a recession is a done deal...the stock market is all over the place almost weekly.
The stock market isn't the economy. Recessions are almost always a done deal, its usually just a matter of when. We haven't went this long without one in a while relatively. Also not every recession is 2008.
 

Culex

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Oct 29, 2017
731
Recession now would be really bad for Trump. Hard to spin this and a good talking point for Dems
 

Ac30

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Oct 30, 2017
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The stock market isn't the economy. Recessions are almost always a done deal, its usually just a matter of when. We haven't went this long without one in a while relatively. Also not every recession is 2008.
Real economy has healthier indicators than the markets right now, though GDP growth has certainly slowed compared to 2018.
 

Aaron

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
10,463
You can’t run any country as a business
Right, this was Romney's whole weakness as a candidate.

He ran a successful business by laying off employees and cutting costs elsewhere. Makes him a "good" businessman but businessmen are rarely held accountable for their actions by the people who are hurt by them.
 

Lo-Volt

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Oct 27, 2017
1,467
New Yawk City!
Is no one comfortable running for Senate because of Chuck Schumer? Or because the upper house malfunctions so grotesquely that no one wants to live in a joyless circus? Because the way it works is particularly gross these days. On a personal level, I understand that these candidates don’t want futile jobs.

But it is a de facto indictment of the future success of the Senate too. We don’t want to say it out loud, but Congress is literally broken down on the side of the road and we aren’t AAA members anymore so we might as well walk to the nearest town.
 

Ithil

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Oct 25, 2017
12,380
Is no one comfortable running for Senate because of Chuck Schumer? Or because the upper house malfunctions so grotesquely that no one wants to live in a joyless circus? Because the way it works is particularly gross these days. On a personal level, I understand that these candidates don’t want futile jobs.

But it is a de facto indictment of the future success of the Senate too. We don’t want to say it out loud, but Congress is literally broken down on the side of the road and we aren’t AAA members anymore so we might as well walk to the nearest town.
I think Abrams really just isn't interested at all in being in the Senate, in that "club". What she wanted was to be governor of Georgia. As common as the jump from governor to senator is, they're pretty starkly different scenarios.
 

AnotherNils

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Oct 27, 2017
4,951
Is no one comfortable running for Senate because of Chuck Schumer? Or because the upper house malfunctions so grotesquely that no one wants to live in a joyless circus? Because the way it works is particularly gross these days. On a personal level, I understand that these candidates don’t want futile jobs.

But it is a de facto indictment of the future success of the Senate too. We don’t want to say it out loud, but Congress is literally broken down on the side of the road and we aren’t AAA members anymore so we might as well walk to the nearest town.
I can't really say, but I imagine just the gamesmanship required to get anything done is exhausting. Nevermind the gridlock and partisanship.

Rubio could do us a favor and explain what about it made him almost quit in 2016.
 

Blader

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Oct 27, 2017
9,903
Is VP an acronym for Senator
Well, she'd be President of the Senate

Is no one comfortable running for Senate because of Chuck Schumer? Or because the upper house malfunctions so grotesquely that no one wants to live in a joyless circus? Because the way it works is particularly gross these days. On a personal level, I understand that these candidates don’t want futile jobs.

But it is a de facto indictment of the future success of the Senate too. We don’t want to say it out loud, but Congress is literally broken down on the side of the road and we aren’t AAA members anymore so we might as well walk to the nearest town.
People aren't interested in the Senate because the Senate is a slow and boring institution being suffocated by Mitch McConnell. Even if you actually like writing legislation and passing bills, that's still not getting done now.
 

Lo-Volt

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Oct 27, 2017
1,467
New Yawk City!
I think Abrams really just isn't interested at all in being in the Senate, in that "club". What she wanted was to be governor of Georgia. As common as the jump from governor to senator is, they're pretty starkly different scenarios.
I’m not calling Abrams out: recruitment this cycle seems like a solid miss for Team Blue. Maybe once the Senate is purely majority-rule or more parliamentary in function and culture, that’ll change. A lot of that has to do with Leader McConnell’s chicanery, but a lot of incumbent senators seem resistant to root-and-branch change so...
 

Tamanon

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Oct 25, 2017
6,557
Maybe people look at how someone that had a real future like Beto was sidelined after he lost a Senate race.

Losing a Presidential primary does nothing bad to you, but losing a race where it's just you versus one other person.... it leaves a mark.
 

Blader

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Oct 27, 2017
9,903
Was the dem senate back in 2000-2014 much more conservative than nowadays?
When Dems came into the Senate majority at the beginning of 2007, there were Democratic senators from Arkansas, Indiana, Louisiana, West Virginia, South Dakota, North Dakota, Nebraska, and Montana (in addition to Tester). There were a bunch of seats that were red then and are blue now, but there's also a bunch of seats Dems won that are just impossible to imagine winning again today. I mean, three of the four Dakota senators were Democrats!
 

dlauv

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Oct 27, 2017
3,930
Looks like Hegar's got serious competition. There were five other candidates after her vying for Senate, but none really stood out - besides Sema, who is crazy. Amanda was closest after that.

 

nature boy

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Oct 25, 2017
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In and around the livestock barns, agriculture building and an antique-tractor collection at the Iowa State Fair in recent days, farmers almost universally expressed support for the president and pledged to vote for him in 2020.

“He’s doing a good job and trying to make sure we’re treated fairly,” said Kevin Prevo, a fifth-generation farmer who raises corn, soybeans, cattle and hogs on about 1,400 acres near Bloomfield, Iowa.

Mr. Prevo showed zero uncertainty when asked whether he would vote for Mr. Trump again in 2020. “You bet,” he said.

...

That message, however, doesn’t seem to be landing with farmers, even as industry associations ratchet up statements expressing concern about the trade dispute. The Wall Street Journal interviewed more than a dozen farmers on the fairgrounds over two days.


“He’s doing the right thing,” said Leo Balk, a fifth-generation farmer who raises corn, soybeans, oats, beef and dairy cows on about 300 acres near New Hampton, Iowa. “It hurts, but his concept is absolutely right.”

One of the reasons farmers are showing so much patience with Mr. Trump, even as commodity prices have suffered, is because his administration has provided tariff-related aid to farmers.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture this month started signing up farmers for a program that will disburse about $14.5 billion, following a roughly $10 billion program last year.

Dan Taylor, who farms about 900 acres of corn, soybeans and livestock near Bouton, Iowa, called the checks the “Trump payment” and said last year’s assistance came close to making up for losses incurred as a result of the trade war.

Mr. Taylor was a rare farmer who said he didn’t vote for Mr. Trump and compared farmers backing the president with evangelical Christians who, as a whole, have also strongly supported him even though some of his actions may be counter to their beliefs.

“The ag sector is the same way,” Mr. Taylor said. “They’ll still give him their loyalty, even though the trade war isn’t doing ag any good.”
 

Tamanon

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Oct 25, 2017
6,557
Was reading about the "doubts" GOP guys are relaying to Trump about the Blago pardon.

One thing that sticks out to me is that I honestly don't see anyone who actually would like this pardon at all. I'm sure we'd have the 38% support it, but that's just because Trump would do it. Beyond that, it seems the guy was just straight scum, and everything wrong with politics. I heard that Jared thought IL Dems would appreciate it but.... a) Would any care that much and b) Why the fuck would Trump care about IL Dems, he ain't winning there!

I dunno, seems weird.
 

Blader

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Oct 27, 2017
9,903
yeah, this is why I don't put a ton of stock into the idea that tariffs and trade wars will really hurt Trump's support among farmers. Maybe some won't vote for him in 2020, maybe enough, but the culture wars + ag sector bailouts will keep many of these people placated going into the election.

Was reading about the "doubts" GOP guys are relaying to Trump about the Blago pardon.

One thing that sticks out to me is that I honestly don't see anyone who actually would like this pardon at all. I'm sure we'd have the 38% support it, but that's just because Trump would do it. Beyond that, it seems the guy was just straight scum, and everything wrong with politics. I heard that Jared thought IL Dems would appreciate it but.... a) Would any care that much and b) Why the fuck would Trump care about IL Dems, he ain't winning there!

I dunno, seems weird.
Kushner also thought Dems would love Trump for firing Comey. He is a moron.
 

VectorPrime

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Apr 4, 2018
9,147
There’s every chance that Abrams doesn’t want to run for Senate because she knows that she’ll be cheated out of the race again so why bother.
 

dlauv

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Oct 27, 2017
3,930
There’s every chance that Abrams doesn’t want to run for Senate because she knows that she’ll be cheated out of the race again so why bother.
Red states are going to red state for Trump, and the margins for a senate victory are significantly reduced - and yeah, probably cheated. If you're a big name, it's political suicide. Save her for 2022, if anything.
 

VectorPrime

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Apr 4, 2018
9,147
Red states are going to red state for Trump, and the margins for a senate victory are significantly reduced - and yeah, probably cheated. If you're a big name, it's political suicide. Save her for 2022.
It’s not that it’s a red state if she was in the same position with the same polling numbers in say South Carolina or Tennessee she’d be crazy not to run but Georgia specifically is absolutely rigged going back years.
 

Ac30

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Oct 30, 2017
11,601
London
There's our daily "Trump may be hurting us but we'll still vote for him" story.

No one wants to hear about former Trump voters and supporters massively hurt by his admin's actions get fed up and vow to vote against him stories, apparently. Those don't earn clicks and ad revenue.
Both generate clicks just fine depending on the audience.
 

Plinko

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Oct 28, 2017
4,633
yeah, this is why I don't put a ton of stock into the idea that tariffs and trade wars will really hurt Trump's support among farmers. Maybe some won't vote for him in 2020, maybe enough, but the culture wars + ag sector bailouts will keep many of these people placated going into the election.
All democrats need is for these people to be less motivated to vote.
 

Aaron

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
10,463
Was reading about the "doubts" GOP guys are relaying to Trump about the Blago pardon.

One thing that sticks out to me is that I honestly don't see anyone who actually would like this pardon at all. I'm sure we'd have the 38% support it, but that's just because Trump would do it. Beyond that, it seems the guy was just straight scum, and everything wrong with politics. I heard that Jared thought IL Dems would appreciate it but.... a) Would any care that much and b) Why the fuck would Trump care about IL Dems, he ain't winning there!

I dunno, seems weird.
They think it would help him with Democrats because Blagojevich is a Democrat.

Look at literally every scandalized Republican in the last decade or so, including Trump. Every time some bombshell drops about them, they rally around the flag. There could be undeniable proof of what the Republican did, and you get one of two responses - "it's not true, the liberal lamestream media is making it up" and "even if it was true, it's not that bad/the Democrats are worse/it's still not true."

Example: someone from Doug Jones' campaign said he was actually leading Roy Moore by a larger margin before the pedophilia stuff came out, because wobbly Republicans thought it was a hit job on Moore.

There's a handful of moderate Republican politicians and candidates who will keep their distance because it helps them, and some of the saner Republican voters will recognize it's a bridge too far (as they did with Moore in the end - he lost, after all, and while that can be partially attributed to supercharged black turnout, Jones also has depressed Republican turnout and crossover voters to thank for his win). But like you said, you'll always have that 38% or so floor of deplorables who could watch Trump eat a live baby on TV and still support him for whatever twisted reason.

Anyway, Republicans think Democrats are wired the same way they are and thus can't possibly comprehend them turning their backs on a slimeball like Blagojevich. I'm sure in their minds, every Democrat is just as guilty and corrupt as Blago, they just have the good fortune of not getting caught. So herpderp, we let Blago out of jail and suddenly Democrats will love us, because they must still love Blago. They can't comprehend voters actually having ethical concerns about their politicians and actually holding them accountable for it. Blago absolutely would have lost if he ran for re-election in 2010, and probably wouldn't have even made it out of the primary.

It's sort of like how anytime someone embezzles, or cheats, or whathaveyou, they rationalize it by assuming everyone else does it too.

All democrats need is for these people to be less motivated to vote.
Margins matter as well. If you even peel off a few of these voters that would be deadly for Trump, even if he still wins a majority of them.

Obama's talked about this frequently, how losing rural counties by 20 points instead of 50 was a part of his campaign strategy. Minimizing those losses is what let him flip Indiana in 2008 and carry Iowa in both of his elections.
 

Vena

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Oct 25, 2017
2,154
yeah, this is why I don't put a ton of stock into the idea that tariffs and trade wars will really hurt Trump's support among farmers. Maybe some won't vote for him in 2020, maybe enough, but the culture wars + ag sector bailouts will keep many of these people placated going into the election.


Kushner also thought Dems would love Trump for firing Comey. He is a moron.
There's our daily "Trump may be hurting us but we'll still vote for him" story.

No one wants to hear about former Trump voters and supporters massively hurt by his admin's actions get fed up and vow to vote against him stories, apparently. Those don't earn clicks and ad revenue.
These stories always focus on hold-outs. Generally best to ignore them because they're selection bias for the eyes.

This is like finding those random Pennsylvania workers still eager to support Trump. He has no hope in PA anymore. I say this as a local who is watching the dynamics shift in the state rapidly.
 

patientzero

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,547


The gray bars are recessions.
Always important to note, though, that while we have a technical definition for recession, which is important, the aftershocks can be felt for far longer. The next recession is not going to be 2008, barring something truly unforeseen, but the consequences aren’t going to be felt for a couple quarters.
 

Hopfrog

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,335
Trump losing in 2020 is not dependent on Iowa farmers turning on Trump. Stubbornness and subsidies will ensure that many will stick with him despite his attempts to kill off entire agricultural sectors. The real story is suburban voters fleeing him and the Republicans en masse in a continuation of 2018.
 
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