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metalslimer

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
9,566
I really want to see video of her comments because who would actually talk about how other candidates were better than your husband
 

Deleted member 3082

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98% of my posts in this thread are puns, wisecracks or (as of today) cat pictures. I leave most of the "out-in-the-weeds" discussions to smarter folks since the few areas I'm familiar with rarely come up; Northern Indiana and Delaware politics.

Not today, though;

An Economic Warning Sign: RV Shipments Are Slipping
Elkhart, Ind., is flashing a warning sign that a recession could be just ahead.

Capital of the country's recreational-vehicle industry, the northern Indiana city and the surrounding area are watched by economists and investors for early indications of waning consumer demand for luxury items, often the first sign of economic anxiety.

Shipments of recreational vehicles to dealers have fallen about 20% so far this year, after a 4.1% drop last year, according to data from the RV Industry Association. Multiyear drops in shipments have preceded the last three recessions.

"The RV industry is better at calling recessions than economists are," said Michael Hicks, an economist at Ball State University, in Muncie, Ind. Mr. Hicks says softening consumer demand for RVs coupled with rising vehicle prices due to tariffs suggests the economy is either in a recession or soon headed for one.

Elkhart has long offered its own economic bellwether—with captains' chairs and onboard bathrooms.

About 65% of recreational vehicles in the U.S. are made in the Elkhart region, as well as many of the tires, wheels, appliances and furniture that goes into them. Elkhart ships its RVs to dealers, who are careful to avoid carrying too much inventory and pull back orders when they sense cooling desire for a luxury item like an RV.

"Elkhart is very distinctive because it is so highly dependent on the RV industry," said Morton Marcus, a retired economist formerly at Indiana University's Kelley School of Business. "As a result, it tends to be very cyclical with the kind of product consumers can very easily say, no that's too big a ticket item for me to buy this year."

A drop in consumer demand can ricochet back to Elkhart. Unemployment in Elkhart County, which has a population of 200,000, was 3% in June, below the national rate of 3.6%, according to federal data. But it is up from a low of 2.1% in April 2018. Weekly hours worked fell by half a percent in June.

During the last recession, Elkhart's unemployment rate hit a high of 20% in 2009.
For reference, Obama used Elkhart as a backdrop for two speeches about the recovery and I believe MSNBC used the city as a reference point for a bunch of articles on the recession.
 

Wilsongt

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,507
98% of my posts in this thread are puns, wisecracks or (as of today) cat pictures. I leave most of the "out-in-the-weeds" discussions to smarter folks since the few areas I'm familiar with rarely come up; Northern Indiana and Delaware politics.

Not today, though;

An Economic Warning Sign: RV Shipments Are Slipping



For reference, Obama used Elkhart as a backdrop for two speeches about the recovery and I believe MSNBC used the city as a reference point for a bunch of articles on the recession.

Who the fuck can even afford an RV except old people?
 

shinra-bansho

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,964
Giving insurance companies everything they could have ever wanted in the ACA wasn't exactly an electorally winning strategy.
I understand that approach if you're talking about congress, you need the votes and a lot of people there are straight up paid by the insurance industry (oh hi fuck you Joe Lieberman, you got blood on your hands), so yeah, pragmatism and concessions will be required. But I don't really accept that voters will punish democrats more if they give them a better healthcare system.

Unless you don't think it's a better healthcare system, and then let's talk about that.
I think in the GE, positions like ending employer based insurance and decriminalisation of border crossings will be vote losers.
 

spx54

Member
Mar 21, 2019
3,273
One thing more clearly than others gets me to think that Biden won't win, and it's that his corner is not acting like a team that's going to win.

You really get the impression that no one in his inner circle actually believes in him

Man he really shouldn't be running. No wonder Obama was leaking to the NYT last week.
 

Wilsongt

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,507


It feels like we are repeating history in the most stupid way with the most stupid people leading imaginable.
 

Arm Van Dam

self-requested ban
Banned
Mar 30, 2019
5,951
Illinois
98% of my posts in this thread are puns, wisecracks or (as of today) cat pictures. I leave most of the "out-in-the-weeds" discussions to smarter folks since the few areas I'm familiar with rarely come up; Northern Indiana and Delaware politics.

Not today, though;

An Economic Warning Sign: RV Shipments Are Slipping



For reference, Obama used Elkhart as a backdrop for two speeches about the recovery and I believe MSNBC used the city as a reference point for a bunch of articles on the recession.
Yep, I read the Times article back 11 months back and this quote struck with me

Shipments of motor homes were down 18.7 percent in June compared with a year ago, and shipments of smaller trailers and campers were down 10.5 percent, according to the RV Industry Association. Motor home shipments were down 6.5 percent in July, but overall shipments were up 10 percent compared with the same month last year. Some companies have cut back to four-day workweeks. Amid strong job gains nationally, hints of rising wages and solid overall economic growth, Elkhart's health is decidedly ambiguous.

"I think it's a yellow light," said Richard Curtin, a University of Michigan economist who is a consultant to the R.V. industry. "Depending on how things evolve in six months, it could be a red light, getting to the end of the expansion."
 

Deleted member 3082

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Oct 25, 2017
3,099
Who the fuck can even afford an RV except old people?

Don't forget that "Recreational Vehicle" is a pretty wide term; they aren't just $500,000 45' McMansions on Wheels. A lot of the RVs made in Elkhart are tow-behind folding / pop-up campers that can go about $6-10k;

x1LwshA.jpg


This is definitely something that a family, especially a young one where privacy isn't an issue yet, might invest in to handle all of their vacation needs instead of staying in motels or messing with tents. They're pretty easy to park in the driveway or back yard until you need them and they last ages; my family got one when I was ~9 years old and it lasted until well after we were all in college, and if I remember right my dad sold it for a few thousand bucks too so... we got our money's worth out of it. Having taken a lot of vacations in a camper pretty much exactly like that growing up, it's not exactly roughing it but you still have to find the bathroom with a flashlight.
 
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platypotamus

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,374
A third thing is also true: Susan Sarandon and other 3rd party refuseniks deserve to be viciously owned until they DO own it
 

ChucklesB

Member
Nov 4, 2017
1,490
I don't doubt the RV thing, I just think it's amazingly fascinating and a bit humorous that RV sales are a corollary for economic strength/weakness.
 

Deleted member 3082

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Oct 25, 2017
3,099
I don't doubt the RV thing, I just think it's amazingly fascinating and a bit humorous that RV sales are a corollary for economic strength/weakness.

It makes a lot of sense though, because it's easily one of the more expensive luxury items. Other "luxury" items like clothes washers / dryers, air conditioning, dishwashers, computers and TVs are still pretty essential to most people, but a camper isn't; it's like buying a new car that doesn't drive anywhere and you only use a few weeks out of the year. You buy it because in the long term it takes a bite out of travel expenses like hotels and such; emphasis on long term. When demand for them drops, it means folks are expecting to hunker down for a few years at least.
 

Arm Van Dam

self-requested ban
Banned
Mar 30, 2019
5,951
Illinois


Newt the Bumfuck everyone



Foreign aid is apparently socialism now, also GND is going to be implemented by checks notes John Hickenlooper!
 

IggyChooChoo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,230
Also, ffs



In the last 100 years has there been a single book more damaging than The Fountainhead? This country has been choked for decades by a platoon of dopes fetishizing this tripe.
I tend to agree with this since it's so widely read (if you include Atlas Shrugged) but in an era of mass white nationalist murders, The Turner Diaries deserves consideration. It has certainly directly inspired far more bloodshed. As far as widely-read, incredibly destructive books, the only one I think compares to ole Ayn is The Bell Curve.
 

ChucklesB

Member
Nov 4, 2017
1,490
It makes a lot of sense though, because it's easily one of the more expensive luxury items. Other "luxury" items like clothes washers / dryers, air conditioning, dishwashers, computers and TVs are still pretty essential to most people, but a camper isn't; it's like buying a new car that doesn't drive anywhere and you only use a few weeks out of the year. You buy it because in the long term it takes a bite out of travel expenses like hotels and such; emphasis on long term. When demand for them drops, it means folks are expecting to hunker down for a few years at least.
RVs also include things like 4 wheelers, camper trailers, snowmobiles, jet skis, etc... luxury items that the middle class can afford.

For sure, I get the reasoning, but I still can't help but be a bit tickled by the corollary and the vision in my head of a bunch of economists going to this one town to scope this out.



Newt the Bumfuck everyone



Foreign aid is apparently socialism now


But Nikki, Cory is going to lose. It's, like, a foregone conclusion.
 

ak1287

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
1,935
Well, people are still talking about her, so they obviously care about what she's doing.
In the same way you care about your cousin Kyle, who lives with his parents and drinks cases of PBR at age 45.

You can care about/recognize the existence of someone and still recognize that this person is completely irrelevant to modern life.
 
Oct 28, 2017
160
In 2013, a poll showed that more Louisiana Republicans blamed Obama for the response to Katrina (29%) than Bush (28%) even though it happened over three years before Obama. Another 44% weren't sure.

That's real, not The Onion.

Has anybody ever figured out the lowest possible number of Republicans blaming Obama. I don't think that polling Republicans whether Obama was to blame for the fall of the western Roman Empire would fall substantially below the figure in the poll you cited. Probably a quarter of the Republican base is only inspired by trolling the libs, I don't think you can get any number in a poll below 25%.
 

AnotherNils

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,936
They sell heavier in rural areas. Even in a denser suburb, where would you have the space for one?
That's... very logical. I think I'd need to know how RVs move in comparison to cars. After all, I'm always impressed by the size of car dealership lots and the amount of them around me is obviously in the double-digits.

Perspective, I guess.


I don't doubt the RV thing, I just think it's amazingly fascinating and a bit humorous that RV sales are a corollary for economic strength/weakness.
I mean, until I see graphs, I'm not convinced.
 

Chikor

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
14,239
But by stealth!
I mean you know I think people are generally dumb. Even if something is better that doesn't mean they will want it.
Win first, then go ham.
If I'm honest, I seriously doubt that the election will be won or lost on something like the differences between Harris and Warren's plans, especially not when running against such detail oriented candidate like Trump.
 
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