I'll be curious to see how the ground game goes. I suspect Warren and Buttigieg are going to have strong ground games and might overperform their polling.
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US PoliEra 2019 |OT7| It's happening
- Thread starter Ogodei
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I'll be curious to see how the ground game goes. I suspect Warren and Buttigieg are going to have strong ground games and might overperform their polling.
It's more complicated than that actually. You could get more delegates than your percentage earns, since it splits the delegates up by district.
Caucuses are dumb.
This is also important. If you start impeachment proceedings then you need to be 110% sure that the caucus will vote to impeach. If the proceedings are inconclusive then it hands him a huge propaganda win.
Electoral college sure does give caucuses a run for their money on stupidity grounds tho
The House caucus is ready. All of the most vulnerable House Ds are people that specifically ran in 2018 because, if not explicitly, they are clearly alarmed by Trump. If you lose Collin Peterson along the way, I think you can live with that.
Given the Kavanaugh fiasco, I have a lot more doubts about Schumer's ability (or interest) in whipping votes on this, and Senate defections would be really bad. Not unlike the House, most of the most vulnerable/resistant members have already lost (lol) but Manchin loves to remind us what a
This illustrates a basic change from 2016, beyond the sexism. As the favorite to win, Clinton scandals were inherently more newsworthy. Now if a story implicates both Trump and the Democratic frontrunner, *Trump's* involvement is the more newsworthy of the two.
They forgot the spikes on top
And LOL at mnuchin and "details". Nope, can't talk about details, why would you do that?
Given the accusations against him, this is more likely him being petty.
Selzer poll shows the Civiqs one wasn't an outlier. Bernie is failing to attract any Clinton 2016 supporters.
😃Selzer poll shows the Civiqs one wasn't an outlier. Bernie is failing to attract any Clinton 2016 supporters.
*watches sunday shows and sees a broken naughahyde couch by the side of the road impersonate a POTUS*
Im getting more and more relieved by the day on this scandal and the vast majority of the press' ability to not only NOT take the bait, but chastise their colleagues who do.
Which is what bungled messaging kills. We even have AOC misinterpreting this and spreading it, and she usually doesn't fuck up getting stuff.
I mean, showing off the skeletons in his closet is 99% of the battle at this point. Look at the above, the crooks and traitors are reeling; they can't spin this without landing in another lie or scandal...yet leadership is fucking up the orders to press the advantage.
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
I really need to get around to reading Camelot's End cuz yah.
Cuz it does lead to that reasonable false equivalency of taking POC voters for granted but also hand-wringing over what dyed-in-the-wool GOP voters think of liberal-ass liberal policies sans any eficacy. It's extra maddenign in this new hyperpartisan environment.
It's another example of him and his ilk shitting on their detractors because they're "the enemy" but also shitting on their supporters cuz those rubes will take it.
Or that he's wrote MI off one, i dunno.
Im getting more and more relieved by the day on this scandal and the vast majority of the press' ability to not only NOT take the bait, but chastise their colleagues who do.
Which is what bungled messaging kills. We even have AOC misinterpreting this and spreading it, and she usually doesn't fuck up getting stuff.
I mean, showing off the skeletons in his closet is 99% of the battle at this point. Look at the above, the crooks and traitors are reeling; they can't spin this without landing in another lie or scandal...yet leadership is fucking up the orders to press the advantage.
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
I really need to get around to reading Camelot's End cuz yah.
Cuz it does lead to that reasonable false equivalency of taking POC voters for granted but also hand-wringing over what dyed-in-the-wool GOP voters think of liberal-ass liberal policies sans any eficacy. It's extra maddenign in this new hyperpartisan environment.
It's another example of him and his ilk shitting on their detractors because they're "the enemy" but also shitting on their supporters cuz those rubes will take it.
Or that he's wrote MI off one, i dunno.
Bernie? dropping out? Not gonna happen. That man will go to the convention.
Whip the Dem votes in the Senate, which I honestly hadn't considered before. If even one stupid D senator voted against conviction it would completely torpedo the message.
edit: I have no idea whether Pelosi "trusts" Schumer or what, but I hadn't thought about how massively risky it is to have a Dem senator go rogue on the vote.
Why is everything that comes out of that man's mouth bullshit? It's a fence, are we really supposed to believe that any professional climber told him a fence was impossible to get over?
Yes. It would then give Susan Collins cover to acquit and call the decision ~~~bipartisan~~~.
But I don't know how realistic that possibility is.
I feel like there's a 100% chance Manchin would not vote to convict if the 2/3rds aren't there (which they aren't)
I never actually believed those polls saying Bernie/Biden voters break for the other guy. To me those are people that are probably not voting for either one. They're just picking names in a hat.
There has been a significant change in morning consult's tracking of it., in that Biden's second choice is split almost equally between Bernie and Warren, favoring Bernie slightly, Bernie's Biden/Warren favoring Biden slightly, Warren is Bernie/Biden, favoring Bernie slightly (oddly, Warren's base has warmed to Biden significantly). All within 1-2%, so basically someone dropping out atm will have pretty much no effect on who's winning.
2020 Democratic Primary
morningconsult.com
Harris dropping out would boost Warren, however.
Or voters are a lot more surface level than you think.
Eh. There are going to be respondents that don't even understand what the words let alone what the questions mean.
Manchin and probably Jones/Sinema wouldn't vote to impeach, unless there were GOP votes to impeach in the House.
That's the whole point I think. If it comes across as pure D only, you're not getting every Senate D. It'll just take something that's supposedly about justice, and make it about partisanship.
Anyone get the feeling that Hillary's campaign had more of the "she's a woman/I'm with her" vibe that warrens/kamala/Klobuchar? I feel like it hasn't really come up. I think that's good
Anyone get a little dusty that we might have a woman president? I'm saddened that I have to wish we're better as a country that it's not even an issue, but if it's not Hillary, I'm happy it's Warren.
Worst case scenario... Dems don't impeach and don't get his taxes (thanks Pelosi and Neal), Trump cheats again and wins again. He already has the incumbent advantage and has raised over $204M already. The economy is slowing but with rates going down all it will take is any deal with China, even an interim deal lasting a year, and the stock market will have plenty of support. In term 2 he gets at least one more SC seat (thanks RBG for not retiring in 2014 when you were 81 years old), thus ensuring a conservative stacked SC for decades if not generations. Any talk of impeachment then will be countered with "sore losers" as well as, "The left constantly accuses me of things they can never prove. If I had done half these things they would have impeached in 2019." He finally leaves in 2024, and even *if* a Dem wins he never gets punished for his crimes. Talk of "unity" and "healing". He skates free of all his crimes and reminds the world daily that he's the greatest PotuS ever, even if that means under-mining a new GOP President. You know he's not going to go quietly into the night like Bush or Obama. This chain of events is not a long shot.
I'm disappointed for the state of democracy in the future that PotuS now means King. We haven't even got his financial info which is surely hiding decades of illegal behavior, and we still have so so much that warrants prosecution. I'm disappointed that Neal didn't have his paperwork in for Trump's taxes by 5pm on the second day, instead of waiting months to even ask. I'm disappointed the the Dems do nothing more than subpoenas which are ignored and nothing ever happens. "Oh well, we tried", they say. Multiple people are showing open contempt... and nothing happens. The GOP would have these people locked up by the end of the week. Now I read here today that Mitch has latitude in the rules to not even try PotuS if the House ever impeaches. The article said, "...sole power to try", so he could tie it up in (Trump stacked) courts for years before ever requiring any GOP Senator to vote on impeachment. This is the party who ignored the "shall provide" law regarding taxes, so I have no doubt if there's a way for Mitch to bend the rules he'll do it.
It's a shite state of affairs to be in (Tommy). I absolutely blame Trump, Mitch and the GOP for this, but I also wish Dem leadership would show some fucking spine instead of rolling over to present their soft belly.
I'm disappointed for the state of democracy in the future that PotuS now means King. We haven't even got his financial info which is surely hiding decades of illegal behavior, and we still have so so much that warrants prosecution. I'm disappointed that Neal didn't have his paperwork in for Trump's taxes by 5pm on the second day, instead of waiting months to even ask. I'm disappointed the the Dems do nothing more than subpoenas which are ignored and nothing ever happens. "Oh well, we tried", they say. Multiple people are showing open contempt... and nothing happens. The GOP would have these people locked up by the end of the week. Now I read here today that Mitch has latitude in the rules to not even try PotuS if the House ever impeaches. The article said, "...sole power to try", so he could tie it up in (Trump stacked) courts for years before ever requiring any GOP Senator to vote on impeachment. This is the party who ignored the "shall provide" law regarding taxes, so I have no doubt if there's a way for Mitch to bend the rules he'll do it.
It's a shite state of affairs to be in (Tommy). I absolutely blame Trump, Mitch and the GOP for this, but I also wish Dem leadership would show some fucking spine instead of rolling over to present their soft belly.
Hillary was the first with a chance. And frankly she earned the use of that rhetoric, no matter if it was right to do or not.
Those four do even need to feel an inkling to do it because Hillary already did.
They didn't ask themselves, because they don't care. The have the sheer force of Bernie's magnetism to carry them to victory!
If things were reversed they would have figured out a way. The fact he refused to even take it a confirmation process alone should have been fought.
I said this too one of my friends. Bernie and his people had 2 years to get there shit together to centralize power in the Dem Party. The question everyone should have is what the fuck they were doing.
On the flip there are multiple articles on Warren talking to every delegate possible and donating money Down Ballot to engineer at least a friendly environment towards her running. Warren is running the campaign Bernie should have ran as the people's champion.
it is a bit sad that, despite having really good ideas, Bernie was overall uncapable of running an efficient campaign.
There is still time to fix it, a lot can change in a few months, but I dont think that he and his campaign will change.
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