US PoliEra 2019 |OT7| It's happening

Arm Van Dam · Sep 10, 2019

This felt like a Pyrrhic victory for the GOP like GA-06 and OH-12, they won, but had to spend a lot of money on this on a district they barely won on that may be redistricted to be more Dem friendly for 2020 depending on how long the upcoming congressional lawsuit lasts and may not want to spend any more money besides Bishops' own.

It will definitely not stem the amount of retirements that House GOP will do since they won't feel confident even with this result.

Since Bishop has to step down from his state senate seat, the GOP must recommend candidates for appointment to Roy Cooper within a week. That seat may very well go more Dem friendly with the redistricting with McCready winning his seat 53.6-44.7 in while Bishop won his seat 52.9-47.1 in 2018. Unofficially tonight, McCready won his seat by maybe 2-3 points more considering he won Mecklenburg county from 9.5% to 12.6%

Bramblebutt · Sep 10, 2019

I'd like to see spending figures on the Dan race, because my impression as someone who lives in a nearby Charlotte district is that Bishop and his cohorts spent way more money on ad buys and events than McCready. Still would have liked to have seen Bishop eat shit for his bigoted horseshit, but I get the feeling the GOP mobilized way more resources than they wanted just to avoid the embarrassment of losing a seat they would have won in 2018 if nobody found out they were cheating.

Aaron · Sep 10, 2019

Kaitos said:
I'm a little confused.

The GCB at the time was tighter than November 2018. He ran about the same as Hillary did in that district when accounting for the two party vote. The GCB got more Dem friendly, and McBath was able to take out Handel by a point. Given the fundamentals, I think both performed as well as you'd expect, and I think the "he's a bad candidate" stuff is weird and not really backed up by what actually occurred.

He was completely fine.

The "he won/he lost" distinction has such a profound psychological effect.

It's similar to saying Kerry was a bad candidate. 120,000 votes in Ohio. That's all it would have taken for him to upend an incumbent wartime president with a good economy and above-50 approval ratings. He did well above what he "should" have done, but people just recognize that he lost and this makes him the worst candidate ever.

Likewise, Ossoff matched Clinton's two-party vote in a district that previously re-elected its Republican Congressman by well over double digits. He also raised $30 million dollars for a House seat, he's already playing with Senate money if he can do that again.

Royalan · Sep 10, 2019

Kirblar said:
Well, she doesn't have that plan out. That may need to copy/paste from Beto too.

It's not like "In theory for Single Payer, in practical reality ______" wasn't Obama/Hillary's position in '08!

Also, the bitter Kamala Stan in me is compelled to point out that not only did Warren blatantly ripoff Harris' "100 Days" initiative, she is the ONLY leading candidate to not put out a healthcare proposal. The only one. And yet, she completely skates by.

Tamanon · Sep 10, 2019

Kaitos said:
lol he's getting worse.

Yeah that's some bullshit. Any National Dem running in NC will be locked at the hip to Cooper who is beloved here.

I think this state goes blue in 2020.

No Depth · Sep 10, 2019

spx54 said:
lol fuck off

Razor-thin night actually.

Kaitos · Sep 10, 2019

Royalan said:
Where I'm coming from is this:

Until further notice, the ability for a Democrat to win a Georgia Senate seat is going be this: what is your capacity to run a statewide race similar to the race Abrams ran? Georgia hasn't seen a D Senator since 2005, and politics in that state have only gotten more polarized and difficult in that state since then. Abrams ran by being unapologetic, magnetic, and capable of running a campaign that appealed equally to white Georgians, black Georgians, and white/black unlikely voters. I just don't see, in how Ossoff presents himself, the ability to activate that Georgian coalition. I haven't seen that shift in him.

I'm just looking at the data from his 2017 race when you said he was a weak candidate. I don't really think there's any reason to actually think he was a fundamentally flawed candidate. You're welcome to have opinions on his Senate run and its success -- I don't really have any opinions on it besides that I think it's an uphill battle for any Democratic nominee and that Ossoff will probably raise significant $. But I also don't really think the the state has gotten more "difficult" than 2005. If anything, we have more opportunities now and have been stronger in Georgia in some time.

I just don't see a lot of evidence from his one run that he was a fundamentally weak candidate. That was my point.

Kusagari · Sep 10, 2019

Kaitos said:
lol he's getting worse.

Much worse than Clinton?

lol I would love to know his basis for that.

gaugebozo · Sep 10, 2019

spx54 said:
lol fuck off

Red Wave #2!

Royalan · Sep 10, 2019

Aaron said:
The "he won/he lost" distinction has such a profound psychological effect.

It's similar to saying Kerry was a bad candidate. 120,000 votes in Ohio. That's all it would have taken for him to upend an incumbent wartime president with a good economy and above-50 approval ratings. He did well above what he "should" have done, but people just recognize that he lost and this makes him the worst candidate ever.

Likewise, Ossoff matched Clinton's two-party vote in a district that previously re-elected its Republican Congressman by well over double digits. He also raised $30 million dollars for a House seat, he's already playing with Senate money if he can do that again.

Here's my point on Abrams (and my issue with Ossoff).

The extent to which Georgia is becoming an increasingly vivid shade of purple is almost directly correlated to how black it's gotten in the last decade.

Any politician hoping to win statewide has to acknowledge that.

MizerMan · Sep 10, 2019

Bad Pundit Dave

Arm Van Dam · Sep 10, 2019

spx54 said:
lol fuck off

Of course, it has to be all about him, I bet he's still pissed about Bolton contradicting him

Kaitos said:
lol he's getting worse.

Wasserman has been becoming really douchy lately, hell he was arguing with Stephen Wolf the other day because Dave was downplaying the impact of GOP gerrymandering on disadvantaged Dems in 2018 while Wolf said that gerrymandering was more to blame.

Kaitos · Sep 10, 2019

Arm Van Dam said:
Of course, it has to be all about him, I bet he's still pissed about Bolton contradicting him

Wasserman has been becoming really douchy lately, hell he was arguing with Stephen Wolf the other day because Dave was downplaying the impact of GOP gerrymandering on disadvantaged Dems in 2018 while Wolf said that gerrymandering was more to blame.

Yeah for a very long time Wasserman has believed gerrymandering isn't really as important as Democrats so called "self sorting".

Kaitos · Sep 10, 2019

Royalan said:
Here's my point on Abrams (and my issue with Ossoff).

The extent to which Georgia is becoming an increasingly vivid shade of purple is almost directly correlated to how black it's gotten in the last decade.

Any politician hoping to win statewide has to acknowledge that.

Georgia has only gotten 2% more black since 2010 which doesn't account for all of the shifts in the state. Some of it, but it's also the white voters in the state who have gotten more liberal (most of them from out of state moving in) as well as a significant AAPI and even smaller but important Latinx population.

Royalan · Sep 10, 2019

Kaitos said:
Georgia has gotten less black since 2013.

No shade, but data? Because census data I'm looking at shows a larger and more prominent black population since 2010.

Kaitos · Sep 10, 2019

Royalan said:
No shade, but data? Because census data I'm looking at shows a larger and more prominent black population since 2010.

You replied me before my edit lol. I was looking at birth data. But the extent in which it's gotten more black can't solely account for the shifts in the state.

MizerMan · Sep 10, 2019

Arm Van Dam said:
Wasserman has been becoming really douchy lately, hell he was arguing with Stephen Wolf the other day because Dave was downplaying the impact of GOP gerrymandering on disadvantaged Dems in 2018 while Wolf said that gerrymandering was more to blame.

Wasn't he doubtful of Democrats doing well throughout 2018?

spx54 · Sep 10, 2019

what a fucking cornball

Deleted member 176 · Sep 10, 2019

spx54 said:
what a fucking cornball

put that picture in a museum lol

Kaitos · Sep 10, 2019

MizerMan said:
Wasn't he doubtful of Democrats doing well throughout 2018?

He's also had this strange theory that the House Dem freshman would be more compelling candidates than the current crop of candidates running for president -- think Spanberger or Slotkin. He said it a few times and you can see it come up over and over again in his tweets. It's really weird.

Deleted member 3082 · Sep 10, 2019

All caught up on the day's madness, thanks for the reply on that tweet earlier Nihon Tiger, Brian McDoogle and Sexy Fish. Saw it randomly on my twitter feed (people I follow follow them, apparently, which is an obnoxious, shitty thing for Twitter to pass along but whatever) and wading through the day I wasn't sure if it was legitimately going down like that or just wishful thinking from a rando.

Much appreciated, again.

MizerMan · Sep 10, 2019

Kaitos said:
He's also had this strange theory that the House Dem freshman would be more compelling candidates than the current crop of candidates running for president -- think Spanberger or Slotkin. He said it a few times and you can see it come up over and over again in his tweets. It's really weird.

Yeah, I don't know what's going on with Dave. Like he trying to be contrary for the sake of being contrary.

Blader · Sep 10, 2019

Kaitos said:
lol he's getting worse.

Donald Trump is a fucking coastal city elite

for fuck's sake

Kaitos · Sep 10, 2019

MizerMan said:
Yeah, I don't know what's going on with Dave. Like he trying to be contrary for the sake of being contrary.

I think he just doesn't like Warren.

MizerMan · Sep 10, 2019

Kaitos said:
I think he just doesn't like Warren.

Wouldn't put it past him.

Kaitos · Sep 10, 2019

MizerMan said:
Wouldn't put it past him.

I mean that's what he's saying "coastal Dem" and "anti-elites", it's... very obvious imo.

MizerMan · Sep 10, 2019

Kaitos said:
I mean that's what he's saying "coastal Dem" and "anti-elites", it's... very obvious imo.

Oh yeah, he was pretty blatant about his preference without saying it. It's just funny how he's trying to frame it in a very bad take.

Kaitos · Sep 10, 2019

ALSO IF WE'RE GOING TO TALK ABOUT COASTAL DEMOCRATS, NORTH CAROLINA VERY FAMOUSLY HAS A COAST

Midnight Jon · Sep 10, 2019

somehow wasserman has even dumber punditry than nate silver, which is an extremely difficult feat

Pooh · Sep 10, 2019

I know, I know, but ugh

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/10/us/politics/trump-voters-supporters-policies.html

Brian Kelly of Fayetteville said he felt Mr. Trump understood "the people who experience most discrimination right now are us, Christians." "I hate this racist nonsense. It's just a political ploy," Mr. Kelly said. "You can say anything you want if you're a Muslim or an atheist."

....

Osigah Kakhu, 23, a North Carolina Trump supporter who is the son of Nigerian immigrants, wore a signed hat from Vice President Mike Pence. Like his white counterparts, Mr. Kakhu said he agreed with Mr. Trump's rhetoric about immigrants, including his infamous insult of African nations.

The president "tells things blatantly, and he's rude, but he's also right," Mr. Kakhu said. "Can you name a white country that's a" dump, he asked, though he repeated the vulgar language the president used.

I just fucking hate this shit

OuterLimits · Sep 10, 2019

Arm Van Dam said:
D+2

Bishop scared away a lot of moderates and Indys, while McCready has picked up those votes plus dissatisfied GOP votes

case in point from a GOP strategist source

Not enough were scared away it seems. McCready did well, but Trump was able to hold his coalition of supporters enough to drag a less popular Bishop across the finish line.

Kusagari · Sep 10, 2019

Trisha Hope, 55, was attending her 23rd rally for Mr. Trump. Ms. Hope sells a book of all the president's tweets since Inauguration Day. They are "history that needs to be preserved," she said, and have "never been inaccurate." Ms. Hope estimated that she's read every tweet about 50 times.

"President Trump touched something inside me,'' Ms. Hope said. "He speaks like me and he talks like me. When the media acts like he's offending everyone, I know that's not true."

the fuck

Royalan · Sep 10, 2019

Kaitos said:
You replied me before my edit lol. I was looking at birth data. But the extent in which it's gotten more black can't solely account for the shifts in the state.

But this lends itself to what is still surprisingly (to me) a revelation:

Black people, by virtue of being a universally repressed minority (and thus, taboo), are taste makers. When it comes to the American cultural zeitgeist, we're culture makers. It's no surprise that so many white American comedians get into trouble for their persistent desire to immolate black people. It is no surprise that young American queer culture (think Drag Race and all that revolves around it), is making millions of dollars and becoming a dominant cultural force by talking exactly like my 60+ year old aunties talk. It's no surprise that hip-hop culture is the most bankable American cultural export at the moment. It's no surprise that things that become popular in the American GP was almost always popular among black people for years prior. For better and worse (and yes, there is a lot of worse) Black people have a dominant effect on culture.

So what does that mean? It means that when Black juggernauts like T.I., Monica and Tyler Perry, Georgian juggernauts, go out and stump for you...you'd be a fool to think that the only people effected by this are black people. Georgia only needed to get blacker by a few degrees for Atlanta to become America's Black Mecca, and for cultural elements that appeal to black people first to have a wider impact on the state as a whole.

So a white man, like Ossoff, who hasn't demonstrated an ability to appeal to black people, in Georgia? Yeah, I'm not holding my breath.

spx54 · Sep 10, 2019

this really is straight up concerning now

TheGullsHaveBeaks · Sep 10, 2019

Man, Democrats have to do better in areas like this. The drop from 2018 to now is shocking. Lumbee tribe precincts in the county went from McCready winning by twenty to Bishop winning by 3. What a drop for Dems here.

Aaron · Sep 10, 2019

spx54 said:
this really is straight up concerning now

The implication here is obvious, but also I wouldn't be shocked if he tried to pull a Cleveland.

Royalan · Sep 11, 2019

When an orange dipshit shows you who he is, believe him.

This is like the 6th time Trump has "joked" about remaining in office permanently.

The 2 or so months after Trump loses the election and before he officially relinquishes power remains the most terrifying period on the horizon...to me.

Kaitos · Sep 11, 2019

Royalan said:
But this lends itself to what is still surprisingly (to me) a revelation:

Black people, by virtue of being a universally repressed minority (and thus, taboo), are taste makers. When it comes to the American cultural zeitgeist, we're culture makers. It's no surprise that so many white American comedians get into trouble for their persistent desire to immolate black people. It is no surprise that young American queer culture (think Drag Race and all that revolves around it), is making millions of dollars and becoming a dominant cultural force by talking exactly like my 60+ year old aunties talk. It's no surprise that hip-hop culture is the most bankable American cultural export at the moment. It's no surprise that things that become popular in the American GP was almost always popular among black people for years prior. For better and worse (and yes, there is a lot of worse) Black people have a dominant effect on culture.

So what does that mean? It means that when Black juggernauts like T.I., Monica and Tyler Perry, Georgian juggernauts, go out and stump for you...you'd be a fool to think that the only people effected by this are black people. Georgia only needed to get blacker by a few degrees for Atlanta to become America's Black Mecca, and for cultural elements that appeal to black people first to have a wider impact on the state as a whole.

So a white man, like Ossoff, who hasn't demonstrated an ability to appeal to black people, in Georgia? Yeah, I'm not holding my breath.

I'm just talking to the point if he was a weak candidate. On paper, he wasn't really for the environment, that's all. I don't really have any opinions about how he'll do against Perdue besides that Perdue would start off as the favorite (though he'd be the favorite against anyone, even Abrams).

Royalan said:
When an orange dipshit shows you who he is, believe him.

This is like the 6th time Trump has "joked" about remaining in office permanently.

The 2 or so months after Trump loses the election and before he officially relinquishes power remains the most terrifying period on the horizon...to me.

Yeah, I think about that a lot.

shinra-bansho · Sep 11, 2019

Lol I don't know what you people think Trump will do come Jan 20th 2021 or under worst case 2025. I mean yes your country sucks but he doesn't have the capability or clout of Putin or Xi.

Madison · Sep 11, 2019

spx54 said:
this really is straight up concerning now

Lets be 100% honest, if he wins reelection the push for a third term is going to start immediately

Chaos Legion · Sep 11, 2019

shinra-bansho said:
Lol I don't know what you people think Trump will do come Jan 20th 2021 or under worst case 2025. I mean yes your country sucks but he doesn't have the capability or clout of Putin or Xi.

Even if he tries to pull something, doesn't the government automatically turn over on Inauguration Day?

That said, I would love the treasonous Republicans attempt to explain away Trump not succumbing to a peaceful transition of power.

Ignatz Mouse · Sep 11, 2019

Royalan said:
An odd swing and miss for Warren here:

Seems good to me.

Blader · Sep 11, 2019

I think Trump losing in 2020 and running again in 2024 is way more likely than him trying to remain in office indefinitely or something.

shinra-bansho · Sep 11, 2019

What does a broken up Apple look like...?

https://www.theverge.com/2019/3/9/18257965/elizabeth-warren-break-up-apple-monopoly-antitrust

Ok so she wants them to spin off the App Store?

Kaitos · Sep 11, 2019

shinra-bansho said:
Lol I don't know what you people think Trump will do come Jan 20th 2021 or under worst case 2025. I mean yes your country sucks but he doesn't have the capability or clout of Putin or Xi.

The actual fear IMO is that the Senate does not vote to certify the results of the electoral college should Trump lose but Republican maintain the Senate.

Chained Prometheus · Sep 11, 2019

Blader said:
I think Trump losing in 2020 and running again in 2024 is way more likely than him trying to remain in office indefinitely or something.

I wouldn't be surprised if Trump will consider that as an option, but he might not be able to, depending on how determined the State of New York is to put him behind bars once he's out of office.

DinosaurusRex · Sep 11, 2019

shinra-bansho said:
What does a broken up Apple look like...?

https://www.theverge.com/2019/3/9/18257965/elizabeth-warren-break-up-apple-monopoly-antitrust
Ok so she wants them to spin off the App Store?

The App Store without them gatekeeping it is worthless though. they'd have no way of blocking malicious apps which is at least 50% of the appeal of a tightly controlled App Store.

GrapeApes · Sep 11, 2019

shinra-bansho said:
What does a broken up Apple look like...?

Aaron · Sep 11, 2019

Kaitos said:
The actual fear IMO is that the Senate does not vote to certify the results of the electoral college should Trump lose but Republican maintain the Senate.

What happens then? Pelosi becomes president?

Soul Skater · Sep 11, 2019

Great dynamic we have where Democrats are afraid of issuing a subpoena to a translator who was literally in the room with Putin and Trump and knows everything they said out of the potential fear how that could affect diplomacy going forward but have a Republican Party that totally might just not certify the results of an election because why not

US PoliEra 2019 |OT7| It's happening

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