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US PoliEra 2019 |OT7| It's happening
- Thread starter Ogodei
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This too.
Wanna know why Social Security cuts will never happen? Because old people vote, and they will kick you out if you mess with it.
Was telling my friend about the proposal to lower Medicare to 50 and he was like "well what good does that do us? Why not just make it available to everyone?" Because you know who votes? People above the age of 50. You know who doesn't? The opposite. Fucking vote.
It's actually so gosh dang maddening. Biden is basically as close to Generic Dem as you can get. He's totally non-threatening to your independent voter. He has the good will from the Obama years. He has the experience. His policies are progressive enough, actually workable, and basically the htings that are going to happen if we get a trifecta. (I'm sorry, we're not getting M4A so anyone who's upset about that can yell at me all they want.) Biden's issue is...Biden. What I wouldn't fucking give for Biden to be replaced by Kerry, or a carbon copy of Hillary named something else...anyone who I didn't have to worry about waking up one day, forgetting he's President, and needing a diaper change before noon. (Also, you know, the whole kinda rapey thing and his REAL bad views on race.)
But like, real talk, if someone walked up to me and said "Biden is a sure thing and will 100% win" then I'd be working my ass off to make sure he was the nominee. Call it risk aversion or whatever, but the stakes are too damn high. I'd take the sure thing every day of the week. (I don't think biden is a sure thing btw).
Yeah I'm aware of the difference in approach, but you'd think holding Trump accountable and doing everything you can to undermine him would force a cohesive strategy here. He's a huge threat to the future of this country to say the least. It's just disappointing
Even with Biden being a bit, uh, duller than he was in his prime, I still wouldn't feel nearly as much of the mortal dread I do under Trump because he probably wouldn't be surrounded by advisers who are evil. He also wouldn't be tweeting.
The senior moments would be uncomfortable but I couldn't imagine it getting to "oh fuck does he want North Korea to nuke us or what"
I just wanted to point out: For everyone saying we gotta dream bigger to get the children interested in voting. So....like, no. That's not really the issue. In 2008., 17-29 year olds made up about 14-15% of the electorate in the primary. In 2016, when a certain candidate was offering everything the youths wanted, irrespective of reality, 6 minute abs, and the laws of time and space.....17-29 year old turnout was.....17 percent. So, literally giving into everything you can think of netted about 220,000 votes. This is why coalitions built primarily on the young don't work. They never work.
So, if I am a politician (one of the good ones) who wants to be in office to make things better for folks, I have a vested interest in making sure I spend time speaking with those who are most likely to turn up and vote. That's gonna be older folks. It's going to be older voters of color. It's going to be the people who I don't have to treat like magical unicorns, and then pray to the heavens they show up. The amount of resources necessary to get one youth to vote could be better spent turning out 2-3 of my older, reliable voters. This is not to say the kids should be ignored, or that they're ad people or whatever. But if you want your interests represented, if you want people to cater to you...you gotta show up. I get it's a complex issue, but it's not a new one, and its still idiotic to build a coalition around the young unless you can break into other demographics. (And not sit at 5% with those over 65).
So, if I am a politician (one of the good ones) who wants to be in office to make things better for folks, I have a vested interest in making sure I spend time speaking with those who are most likely to turn up and vote. That's gonna be older folks. It's going to be older voters of color. It's going to be the people who I don't have to treat like magical unicorns, and then pray to the heavens they show up. The amount of resources necessary to get one youth to vote could be better spent turning out 2-3 of my older, reliable voters. This is not to say the kids should be ignored, or that they're ad people or whatever. But if you want your interests represented, if you want people to cater to you...you gotta show up. I get it's a complex issue, but it's not a new one, and its still idiotic to build a coalition around the young unless you can break into other demographics. (And not sit at 5% with those over 65).
To be fair to BIden, and I am meaning this in a VERY narrow and specific way, the supposed "word gap" thing is a widely held belief. It's based on one study of a handful of families. It's been a concept integrated into early childhood education for quite a while, even though it's probably totally wrong. Dr Biden, being a teacher, probably has internalized that stat and has repeated it to him a million times. The rest of his answer was straight up garbage, but the whole word gap thing...is actually not that weird.
I'm just catching up on the whistleblower thing and I have been trying to figure out how to finish this thought for like 10 minutes. Just what the fuck
You're not wrong about younger people feeling more of the pressure of climate change. But it's not the olds that are the problem entirely. Bernie, Biden, Liz, Merkley, Inslee, and a whole bunch of other olds are all for doing things to combat climate change. It's the republicans that are the issue. Again, if climate is the issue that mobilizes the youth that's great. They just gotta get out there and do it. If millennials voted at the same rate as the olds? We'd be golden on a lot of issues. IDK what more can be done than repeatedly telling kids the planet is literally on fire and you have to vote!
I do think we should do things to make voting easier for everyone, including the youth. Automatic voter registration, automatic mail ballots, etend early voting, ease ID requirements, get rid of caucuses for primaries, etc. IDK how much this would help the youth specifically, but any barrier to voting should be removed.
Preach. For the love of God, PREACH!
If Kerry was leading the primary and up 15 points head to head with Trump. I'd sleep like a newborn. I know what hell is and I'd never take for granted having a competent Commander in Chief with policies I largely agree with.
The tide is turning when it comes to national opinion of climate change. Most Americans see the climate crisis as an issue and believe, irrespective of our president, that it is a manmade issue.
But, just like with gun reform, absolutely jack will happen with a Republican in the highest office.
Also interesting to note and from the same source:
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The whistleblower should have gone straight to Schiff with the goods. Should have known better that Trump Toadies will do whatever it takes to hide his treason and corruption every waking moment.
Oh, he's not total trash. You shouldn't feel bad about once liking him.
He is completely inexperienced and incredibly sheltered.
There are some good olds too! We won 44% of them in 2016 and 48% of them in 2018. I'm calling olds anyone in Autos age bracket of 65+
Adam over here #NotAllMening the Olds just to defend his queen Cher SMH.
You're right, that was a bit hyperbolic but he definitely should not be in the running for president, he's just not ready yet. Not even close.
My queen is ageless and timeless. And you know not all of her is the same age as the rest of her.
I totally agree. I am sick of Pelosi and her bullshit at this point. She shit all over Nadler because "there aren't enough votes to vote for impeachment right now"
That's the whole point of the investigation. Reveal all the shit and get the votes. You dont get the votes first.
The truth is Pelosi doesn't give a shit. She rather have trump as a foil for elections then do anything of actual value.
Its ok i think. We didnt know about his race issues and the AllLivesMatter stuff and the "lets leave the embassy in Jerusalem" thing
After months of info, there is little reason to support him anymore.
I'm not even an Old (very early Millennial) who went to public school in a socialist bubble city and was taught at age 9 that climate change existed and even I've been conditioned over time into thinking we can't do anything substantive about it. I know multiple people who will not have children in part because it would be irresponsible to dump our climate change problems on them, and even then we largely shrug.
It's impressive how badly humankind has managed to fuck things up. Like seriously. Climate science has started to rate observations of warming based on average conditions from 1980 or 1990 through 2010 now instead of 1880-1930 when reliable records started because there's so much temperature increase baked in permanently. We'll probably break 1 full degree C (1.8F) average next year globally. That's 24/7/365, everywhere, with up to 5 times that locally like some areas of the arctic. We've ruined the planet that that much already. That math of it is staggering.
They don't really say much about their methodology other than they use a stratified sampling and weight to population. 538 rates them a B-. Something about what they do seems to be favourable to Sanders and/or unfavorable to Warren, which is not to say it isn't real. I think online panels seem to favour Sanders in general, outside of YouGov.
Pew analysed a few different non-probability sampled polls, and found that YouGov performed well:
Anyway, for PolliERA, simple average of polls rated A- or better by 538. [Number of polls]
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To be honest, I still appreciate that Pete and Warren are the only two to be realistic about what's necessary to actually pass anything substantial long-term; regarding the filibuster, adding states, fixing the courts, ditching the electoral college, etc. He's even mentioned supporting increasing the number of House reps. Plus I think he's got his priorities straight with democratic fixes and climate change being the first things to address.
But yeah, it's been sad to see, in real time, the effect the big money has had on his messaging. He started this year talking about the conflicts between capitalism and democracy, and now he's attacking the progressives as being "needlessly divisive."
I still think he's the better of the more moderate candidates, but he's a very distant third to Warren and Sanders. I still wouldn't mind seeing him in the cabinet.
But yeah, it's been sad to see, in real time, the effect the big money has had on his messaging. He started this year talking about the conflicts between capitalism and democracy, and now he's attacking the progressives as being "needlessly divisive."
I still think he's the better of the more moderate candidates, but he's a very distant third to Warren and Sanders. I still wouldn't mind seeing him in the cabinet.
Warren is actually the one with the best sense of what needs to pass first re: anti corruption legislation. Much easier to pass everything else if people aren't getting paid to take positions by fossil fuels, the NRA, etc
Yeah I agree (which is why Warren is very solidly my #1 and I'm rocking her bumper sticker on my car). The two kinda go hand in hand. Pass her anti corruption laws, add states to expand the Senate, nuke the filibuster, and you'll be able to do some real shit. Lobby states to adopt the National Popular Vote Compact for good measure to lock the current GOP out of the executive for good.
Genuinely didn't know that. That's good news, I generally like Beto and would like him as VP or in the cabinet.
Interesting that Kamala's staff also think a Biden implosion is the only chance they have at a resurgence. That's what I've been saying but I was hoping high priced campaign staff would actually have a better strategy in place, LOL.
Anyway..... Oppo-Droppo is back!
The next couple of days will be VERY interesting. The intelligence committee is meeting with the IG tomorrow, so we should have an idea by end of day if it's really a Megaton or not.
I think Philip Mudd on CNN telegraphed the potential Republican counter-attack. They'll say the intelligence official shouldn't have disclosed the President's phone call and it's not their place to judge the President's conduct. But I think this counter-attack will only work if the actual news ends up rating a 6 or less on the OMG scale. If it's a 9 or higher, no one will care about the process of how the news came out. The fact that the IG feels this news is credible and urgent and pushed to inform Congress when the acting DNI director kept stalling, makes me thing this is probably at least a +7 on the OMG scale.
If this does end up being a Megaton, then this may be the last "flashpoint" where Democrats can make an immediate impeachment push. They f*cked up the last two times when the Mueller Report was first released and when Mueller made his 9 minute press conference. If this incident proves that Trump is an active national security threat, then you have to move immediately with an impeachment inquiry. No waffling, waiting for new polls a month from now. Strike immediately while the outrage is hot.
This is the dumbest shit I've ever heard.
Fucking leak it already!
I'd easily take Biden over Pete because honestly I'm not sure if Pete is that much better than Biden on the issue of race and I don't doubt he would build a good cabinet. I have my doubt that Pete's cabinet wouldn't immediately be taken over and he would end up as backseat to a lot of personalties around him
People keep saying Warren needs a POC man but other than non-starter Castro, who else is there in the country? There really aren't many firebrand black/latinx men who are progressives.
Do they need to be a firebrand?
I mean there's Booker. But...
Like based purely on biography and basic Google... Maybe someone like Rep. Anthony Brown of Maryland would balance Warren I guess.
- Congressional Black Caucus
- Executive experience as a former Lt Governor
- Retired Army Colonel
- Man
- 57
I mean HRC picked Kaine who wasn't exactly a prominent firebrand politician. I dont think he was even on the list of potential VP candidates. Personally, I'm hoping for a Warren/Beto ticket. I feel the both of them together could do well in coastal areas, the sun belt, corn belt and rust belt.
I actually don't think Warren needs a firebrand as much as Hillary did. She's pretty fiery (and seen as such) on her own. Someone absolutely boring would be a bad choice I think though.
Kaine was on the 2008 and 2016 VP shortlists lol. Both campaigns thought he'd be needed to shore up VA.
These are great haha.
Bernie must be next... That should be fun.
Empywheel had a funny late-night thought for this farce:
What if one of the former intelligence officials is John Bolton?
What if one of the former intelligence officials is John Bolton?
For a while now, I've believed that we won't know the exact malevolent nature of the Trump-Putin relationship for years to come, but when we do, we will all be horrified.
This whistleblower saga is another instance in a long line of vaguely suspicious incidents similar to the CIA pulling out its most revered Russia asset weeks after Trump divulged highly classified information about Israel's deepcover asset within ISIS to Lavrov and Kislyiak, which show the IC are frightened by Trump's actions.
There is so much circumstantial evidence that the Intelligence Community views the Trump presidency as a threat to their own assets, credibility, and national security in general, that whatever must be going on behind closed doors, in hushed conversations, or SIGINT captured phone calls must be hair-pullingly scaring to the Intelligence Community.
This whistleblower saga is another instance in a long line of vaguely suspicious incidents similar to the CIA pulling out its most revered Russia asset weeks after Trump divulged highly classified information about Israel's deepcover asset within ISIS to Lavrov and Kislyiak, which show the IC are frightened by Trump's actions.
There is so much circumstantial evidence that the Intelligence Community views the Trump presidency as a threat to their own assets, credibility, and national security in general, that whatever must be going on behind closed doors, in hushed conversations, or SIGINT captured phone calls must be hair-pullingly scaring to the Intelligence Community.
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Guess he didn't get someone sycophantic enough.
Turns out that one of the poets up for the National Book Award this year, Camonghne Felix, is also the Director of Surrogates & Strategic Communications at Elizabeth Warren for President.
I'm not big into poetry, but thought this was neat.
I'm not big into poetry, but thought this was neat.
That's really cool! And another one of Warren's surrogates, Roxane Gay, is a renowned author and professor too!
Over/ Under on number of days after text of the call is leaked, that the GOP begins saying, "He's trolling Libs, he was just joaking, guise!! 1!!1!!11!!"
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/306099-biden-leads-florida-warren-doubles-support
Very interesting gains for Warren. Besting Biden in the GE? Add it to the pile.
Very interesting gains for Warren. Besting Biden in the GE? Add it to the pile.
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