I was thinking the same thing. I'm just trying not to jump to conclusions here, since I've come to realize that a lot of my attempts at reading the winds in politics aren't particularly as polished as I'd have liked.
Hoping Warren wins this.
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US PoliEra 2019 |OT7| It's happening
- Thread starter Ogodei
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I was thinking the same thing. I'm just trying not to jump to conclusions here, since I've come to realize that a lot of my attempts at reading the winds in politics aren't particularly as polished as I'd have liked.
Hoping Warren wins this.
I'll never understand why the Speaker comes before the Senate President, but I'd live a President Pelosi.
I think the rationale is that House members and thusly the Speaker of the House are closer to the electorate at the time and is actually a representative body unlike the Senate.
Sadly, Buttigieg and Harris supporters liking Warren is only going to matter if Warren is able to win any of the first 4 states. Otherwise the race is going to move further away from her, if there is a race at all.
Warren & Biden tied in poll of the 2020 Dem primary from The Economist and YouGov.
% support (likely voters):
Warren: 24
Biden: 24
Sanders: 17
Harris: 6
Buttigieg: 5
Yang: 2
Booker: 2
Castro: 2
Gabbard: 1
O'Rourke: 1
Among likely voters (IE: people who say they're going to vote in the primary) who are also registered to vote:
Warren: 26
Biden: 26
Sanders: 16
Harris: 6
Buttigieg: 6
Yang: 2
Booker: 2
O'Rourke: 1
Klobuchar: 1
Gabbard: 1
Castro: 1
Bennet: 1
Bullock: 1
Williamson: 1
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It's also not going to matter as long as Buttigieg and Harris are in the race.
Should have said, "members of the press, WTF?!"
Also, this is cringe that makes you want to shrivel up into a tiny ball
Why?
NC, GA and TX are important (this cycle, mainly for winning their Senate seats) but AZ is far more crucial to our Electoral College chances. It could essentially replace Wisconsin in the company of PA and MI.
I just wish NC/GA/TX would move faster. Ohio seems like a lost cause and FL is too razor thin for comfort. Plus there's WI which hopefully snaps back to blue but who knows.
It's nice to know AZ is looking good for sure. But it's taking forever for desperately needed voting shifts to appear in other future blue states. But yes it's nice to know AZ could negate a WI Trump win.
She doesnt have Hillary's baggage or demeanor and clearly is putting double the effort in her campaign
Hillary was treated unfairly and any and all weapons were used against her
I just feel like the weapons against Warren wont be as effective on top of her ability to respond and navigate said attacks
But we will see. Its still a damn wall to climb for any democratic candidate... Yes even Joe Biden
2016 being as close as it was means any number of things would give the Democratic nominee the win over Trump.
If Warren can coalesce the third party protest vote behind her, she wins.
If Warren can boost black turnout, she wins.
If Warren can run better among white suburban moderates, she wins.
etc. Our only option is hardly winning back Obama->Trump voters. I'm sure there will be some Trump->Warren (or whoever) voters, but they'll come along on their own - we don't need to cater the campaign to them.
It's because the VP is the president of the Senate, surely?
Warren has infinitely less baggage and shes a lot better at handling criticism than Hillary ever was, no need to worry in that front. The biggest bullet against Warren (the DNA shit) was wasted too early and other things that progressives care about (voting for the military budget, for instance) are not big enough to hurt her in the general. She has a fairly good shot.
I feel like if everyone with this hypothetical fear that while they like Warren others won't, just voted for Warren because they like her, Warren would win.
When it comes to just straight bigotry-related voting, I wonder what the breakdown of people is who would/did vote for a black man but would not vote for a woman of any race. Because clearly there is still a pretty distressing trend of "there's just something I don't like about her" that applies to pretty much all women candidates (although Hillary probably had the maximum version of that).
Tonight's #NC09 margin looking a lot like 2018 suggests the GOP isn't really making all that much improvement from November 2018 which is consistent with Trump's national approval remaining fairly stable.
2016 #NC03 + #NC09 popular votes for President was
Trump 57.39% - Clinton 39.89%
Tonight's NC03 + NC09 popular vote (sans 2 NC09 precincts plus uncounted provisional and extra absentees which will skew towards dems) was
GOP 54.94% - DEM 44.39%
2016 #NC03 + #NC09 popular votes for President was
Trump 57.39% - Clinton 39.89%
Tonight's NC03 + NC09 popular vote (sans 2 NC09 precincts plus uncounted provisional and extra absentees which will skew towards dems) was
GOP 54.94% - DEM 44.39%
Trump doing 2.4% worse in 2016 and Clinton doing 4.5% better would let Clinton win with more than 50%, just fyi.
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Also we are still a pretty sexist country.
This whole "the DNA thing doesn't matter" is nascent because she's not the nominee at the moment. If the media can make the emails into a huge issue for months, I fundamentally doubt that this will be swept under the rug.
If she's the nominee, it's going to be close. This time I just won't go in to it as a foregone conclusion, because I underestimated the stupidity of the electorate.
I meant the President Pro Tempore of the Senate.
Of course his remembrance of 9/11 includes TV and Jack Welch.
Yes he ran to help...
Wow this is even worse than the Bari Weiss interview MSNBC had before.
Yes he ran to help...
Wow this is even worse than the Bari Weiss interview MSNBC had before.
NC GOP continues to be the worst, with state house passing a budget veto override while most house Dems were absent for 9/11 related activities being told no votes today.
What made the email story so sexy to the media in 2016 was that there was an FBI investigation that let it keep coming back up. It would have laid dormant if Comey didn't send out that fucking letter.
I don't think the DNA test has similar legs - if they uncover proof that she used her claim to Native American heritage to get a leg up in her career, or that she pushed out false documents relating to it, or almost anything else, then sure, it might keep coming up. Right now though, there's not much else to say about it. She's made amends with Native American communities who spoke out against her actions, even Trump is tiring of the "Pocahontas" insult. Like someone said, nuking her campaign with it at the beginning of the cycle was tactical - it got it out of the way early. Can you imagine if the DNA test results waited until October 2020 to drop?
The latent sexism is a problem, but what encourages me about Warren is that compared to Clinton, her numbers are actually improving. Clinton started the 2016 cycle with high approval ratings (hovering around 60% favorable) that sharply declined as soon as she was campaigning. Like she said - people liked her when she had the job, they hated her when she was trying to get it. Warren, thus far does not seem to have that problem, though I acknowledge that anything can change.
That's some shit.
I can't wait for the new maps to come in and for Democrats to win both chambers - and then gerrymander the shit out of the new maps going into 2022. I don't know what it is about North Carolina Republicans that makes them particularly insidious, but this has to stop.
My brain mashed this sentence together and I read it as "once Jeb come around"
Jebuary! Is Coming
*yellow electoral map*
Saw that video crop up last month—it's for a clothing brand, IIRC?—and yeah, disturbing. Rudy tweeting it makes it worse, ugh.
You don't need to sympathize with someone who uses their connection to a tragedy and the platform they are given to make false, politically-motivated attacks.
Its amazing how effective and powerful brainwashing and racism is
Ihan Ohmar will never get the benefit of the doubt as these people will never take the time to apply context to her words or understanding
Its a sickness in this country
Well, I mean, I feel bad that he lost a family member, but that's about it. The way he has allowed it to affect him is sad.
Good call - yes it is a rejected super bowl ad from grunt style.
You can tell which tv channel he watches by the "judeo-christian values" callout.
At one of these memorials, your opportunity to speak is to remember your specific loved one, not this.
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Honestly, it's a sickness in the heart of men. Old demons that refuse to die.
Good summary from First Read on the NC-9 race:
Of those seats they mention, here were the GOP's winning margins in 2018:
TX-23: .5%
PA-1: 2.6%
MI-6: 4.5%
NE-2: 2%
IL-12: 6.2% (lol a Green Party candidate got 3% here)
OH-1: 4.4%
FL-16: 9.2%
So yeah, definitely some opportunity there.
So calm down, Chicken Littles. We didn't need this one and there is more fertile territory where Democrats could even see gains next year.
Of those seats they mention, here were the GOP's winning margins in 2018:
TX-23: .5%
PA-1: 2.6%
MI-6: 4.5%
NE-2: 2%
IL-12: 6.2% (lol a Green Party candidate got 3% here)
OH-1: 4.4%
FL-16: 9.2%
So yeah, definitely some opportunity there.
In this case, Biden's been at that number in economist yougov polling consistently, he didn't lose anything, Warren just gained. Still, likely another outlier.
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