YouGov has been more bullish on Warren than most other pollsters, so while I'm happy to see her pull into a tie I'm not exactly doing cartwheels.
yep. If Biden wins in Iowa he will cruise to the nomination, even if he loses NH on the way there.It sucks, because as much as any other candidate would get a boost from winning Iowa, I think if Biden wins it, this thing is pretty much over.
Klobumentum.Quinnipiac with another Texas primary poll: Biden 28 (-2); Warren 18 (+7); Sanders 12 (-3); Beto 12 (-4); Harris 5 (+1); Castro 3 (-1); Buttigieg 3; Klobuchar 2 (+2); Yang 1; Booker 1; Delaney 1 (-1)
Trump approval is 45-50 in Texas:
NC GOP continues to be the worst, with state house passing a budget veto override while most house Dems were absent for 9/11 related activities being told no votes today.
I think so, yes.
So, here's what happened in 2004:
So, the first issue with Trump narrowly losing in 2020 would be the SoS and governors of the swing states. Thankfully, we have the SoS positions in NC, AZ, WI, MI, PA, and AZ, and the governorship in all of those states minus AZ. So even if Trump is up, by say, 5k in Wisconsin, you'd expect that would hold and the recounts would be done with integrity. A Florida2000 like scenario is certainly possible, though very very unlikely. Either way, be glad we won these, especially Wisconsin. Trump probably doesn't have many recourses to challenge the results unless they were exceedingly close, even accounting for a 5-4 GOP majority on the Supreme Court (they only really had the power to do what they were doing because the vote total was in a large pop state with the vote total under 1000 votes where a recount could matter). So those would be most likely be certified.
Your next issue would be faithless electors. This is the biggest fear. It's likely that forcing your electors to vote for a candidate they don't want to could be struck down (this happened in Washington state, I believe), so you'd really have to double/triple/quadruple check when getting your slate of electors. Honestly, the nominees' team should handle this.
So then let's assume that Dems keep the house, GOP keeps the Senate (likely). GOP does not certify the result because it was too close in Wisconsin. So there's no president-elect or vice president-elect. What happens then? According to Wikipedia:
So at that point, it would seem the Speaker (Pelosi) would become the president. Complicated but... I think that's right?
He also claims to have never run for president before 2016 along with the other 300 or so false statements he makes daily.You haven't started campaigning yet? You already held an official 2020 launch rally, dude.
While both are under 50 percent approval, Sen. Ted Cruz and Sen. John Cornyn remain above water with a 49 - 40 percent approval rating for Cruz and a 41 - 34 percent approval rating for Cornyn. Nearly identical to his disapproval number, 35 percent of voters say that they would definitely not vote for Cornyn in 2020, while 30 percent say they would consider voting for him and 23 percent say that they would definitely vote for him.
why wouldn't it?
crippling our country with an ineffective leader to own the conservativesIt would help make up for the shitty timeline we are in.
Watching the reaction would be priceless.
One day after John Bolton was ousted from his role as national security adviser, two of his closest allies on the National Security Council, Sarah Tinsley and Garrett Marquis, have both left their roles, I'm told.
While North Carolina Democrats were at a 9/11 ceremony, Republican legislators overrode the governor's veto of the state budget. They had promised not to take any votes while Democrats were absent. https://t.co/1STcnFKviG
On paper it's probably easier to win the presidency while losing both houses of Congress, but I don't know, the House doesn't seem to move much in presidential years.why wouldn't it?
I mean, what about the modern GOP right now tells you they wouldn't vote to not certify the results of swings states that Trump lost?
To me, the only reason it wouldn't happen is that the end result is fundamentally the same -- a Democratic president. But now imagine that Republicans take the House!
yep. If Biden wins in Iowa he will cruise to the nomination, even if he loses NH on the way there.
@business
BREAKING: Trump discussed easing sanctions to help secure a meeting with Iran's president, prompting pushback from then-National Security Advisor John Bolton https://bloom.bg/2UOl0M5
Klobucharmander has evolved into Klobucharmeleon.
This doesn't make any sense. If Harris or Buttigieg don't perform well enough in the early states to continue, which it's looking more and more like they won't, then she first, and Biden second, benefit most from them dropping out.Sadly, Buttigieg and Harris supporters liking Warren is only going to matter if Warren is able to win any of the first 4 states. Otherwise the race is going to move further away from her, if there is a race at all.
YouGov and Morning Consult can cancel each other out lol.YouGov has been more bullish on Warren than most other pollsters, so while I'm happy to see her pull into a tie I'm not exactly doing cartwheels.
WisconsinnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnBiden: "We can work with them."
Remember too that time recently when the State GOP voted to cripple the incoming Governor's powers, because the incoming Governor was a Dem. I forget now which State it was.
It's hopeless at this point tbhWhat is it going to take for Democrats to stop trusting these fucking people?
What is it going to take for Democrats to stop trusting these fucking people?
I know it's Axios, but here some names for National Security Advisor have been floated around
- Major General Ricky Waddell, former Deputy NSA and assistant to JSC Chair Joseph Dunford
- Stephen Biegun, US Special Representative to North Korea, former Bush NSC exec secetary under Condi Rice, hired by McCain campaign to literally tutor Palin on foreign policy (Game Change book and movie goes into this), staffed for Helms and Frist, did some lobbying work for Ford
- Brian Hook, US Special Representative for Iran (appointed after Trump ripped up JCPOA), Assistant Secretary of State for International Organization Affairs for Bush admin
- Keith Kellogg, Pence's National Security Advisor and was acting NSA when Flynn got shitcanned
I remain slightly hopeful that Sanders will drop out if he realizes it's realistically between Biden and Warren - realistically I would assume this would happen after a drubbing on Super Tuesday.This doesn't make any sense. If Harris or Buttigieg don't perform well enough in the early states to continue, which it's looking more and more like they won't, then she first, and Biden second, benefit most from them dropping out.
The problem for her is more that Sanders is unlikely to drop out after the first contests, even though he picks up the least support from other dropouts.
Biden isn't dropping out that early, and neither is Warren, so being their second choice is relatively pointless.
High five. What the Republicans did here was especially despicable. Focus on that, not the Democrats being too naive or whatever.Is this really an issue of Dems being too trusting? They were going to a 9/11 ceremony. There were no votes scheduled for that time. Are they supposed to fucking handcuff themselves to the chamber floor 24/7 to prevent the GOP from launching a surprise vote when no vote is scheduled to happen?
It's crazy to me that you can even vote to override a veto with so much of the legislature missing.
The "Dems will NEVER learn" shit in this thread is sometimes so obnoxious. If McConnell bludgeoned Chuck Schumer in his sleep, it would be Schumer's fault for not wearing a helmet to bed.
North Carolina is interesting because Democrats (or perhaps more accurately, Dixiecrats) had a death grip on the politics there for a while thanks to rural whites voting red federally but splitting their ticket for state and local races. So naturally, when Republicans finally won control of the legislature in 2010 (followed by the governorship in 2012), they were going to do their damnedest to hang onto power.There has to be a reason the NC GOP is as bad as it is. Somewhere they have a Newt Gingrich that started them on this path of absolute trash.
I remain slightly hopeful that Sanders will drop out if he realizes it's realistically between Biden and Warren - realistically I would assume this would happen after a drubbing on Super Tuesday.
But perhaps that is misplaced. Still, the reason he stuck it out in 2016 is because there was no viable alternative to Clinton if he withdrew. That's not a problem with Biden vs. Warren (who he likes, and allegedly would have deferred to in 2016 if she had run).
Well I'm not saying Biden has it stitched up NOW, but winning Iowa would reinforce his electability argument (deservedly) and he could that ride through SC, NV, and a lot of those Super Tuesday states.I'm not sure that's absolutely accurate. If he wins decisively, ok, but if he only wins a plurality, and Warren/Bernie come in a competitive 2nd and take a good number of delegates I think the narrative shifts to this being a competitive race.
I know that we live this stuff every day guys, but there's a long time to go. Most (Iowan) voters won't even begin to tune in to this shit until November or December since the Caucus is in early February.
True. We'll see though. Maybe Warren can cut a behind-the-scenes deal with him for a post-Super Tuesday endorsement. Or he rides it out to the convention and ruins everything.
That was before he got a taste of the the adulation and drunk his own Kool aid.
Running for President is like a drug.
Is this really an issue of Dems being too trusting? They were going to a 9/11 ceremony. There were no votes scheduled for that time. Are they supposed to fucking handcuff themselves to the chamber floor 24/7 to prevent the GOP from launching a surprise vote when no vote is scheduled to happen?
It's crazy to me that you can even vote to override a veto with so much of the legislature missing.
The "Dems will NEVER learn" shit in this thread is sometimes so obnoxious. If McConnell bludgeoned Chuck Schumer in his sleep, it would be Schumer's fault for not wearing a helmet to bed.
There has to be a reason the NC GOP is as bad as it is. Somewhere they have a Newt Gingrich that started them on this path of absolute trash.