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US PoliEra 2019 |OT7| It's happening
- Thread starter Ogodei
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Whatever it was, it was roughly equal to GOP enthusiasm and might've been a smidgen lower...
...Which didn't matter because we have more people.
Yep. News was already characterizing the Taliban move last week as another failure to negotiate and regression from status quo. They compared it to weakening relationship with Iran, Paris agreement, Afghanistan, European relations, China trade was and more. It must be eating him inside, and itching for any progress. The whole "Summer accomplishments" crap last week made it very clear he is starved for good press.
I haven't seen the "most popular politician" talking point since Biden officially kicked his campaign off.
Oh, something I wanted to mention in my other post about the CNN poll but I didn't get to because my one kid was throwing a fit....
Bernie's been incredibly static. He doesn't fluctuate much. He's not gaining anything, but he's not really losing anything either. I really do think his floor and ceiling basically touch at this point. As long as he's in the race, he's going to have that 10-15% of folks who are ride or die. I don't know if viability matters to these folks or not. Warren, on the other hand, has shown an increase but she's doing it fairly steadily. She's not gaining and then losing ground like Harris has done. That leads me to believe she's locking in some support long term which bodes well.
Biden's support is interesting in that it's pretty wide but not very deep. He has his hands in a lot of pots that are keeping him afloat. Black voters and moderate voters (which aren't totally exclusive pools) aren't going to be won over by the same policies. I think his unifying theme is electability, obviously, but I do think there are legitimate voters who actually prefer a more centrist candidate. It's going to be interesting to see who is better positioned to pick off some of those.
I think that Biden absolutely has to win at least one of the first three states (Iowa, NH or NV). Hillary won 2 out of 3 of those, and there were still folks pretending that she wasn't the inevitable nominee. Biden can't afford too many hits. SC can only do so much.
Bernie's been incredibly static. He doesn't fluctuate much. He's not gaining anything, but he's not really losing anything either. I really do think his floor and ceiling basically touch at this point. As long as he's in the race, he's going to have that 10-15% of folks who are ride or die. I don't know if viability matters to these folks or not. Warren, on the other hand, has shown an increase but she's doing it fairly steadily. She's not gaining and then losing ground like Harris has done. That leads me to believe she's locking in some support long term which bodes well.
Biden's support is interesting in that it's pretty wide but not very deep. He has his hands in a lot of pots that are keeping him afloat. Black voters and moderate voters (which aren't totally exclusive pools) aren't going to be won over by the same policies. I think his unifying theme is electability, obviously, but I do think there are legitimate voters who actually prefer a more centrist candidate. It's going to be interesting to see who is better positioned to pick off some of those.
I think that Biden absolutely has to win at least one of the first three states (Iowa, NH or NV). Hillary won 2 out of 3 of those, and there were still folks pretending that she wasn't the inevitable nominee. Biden can't afford too many hits. SC can only do so much.
I like how it never occurs to people who push this talking point how potent this might be in the general election.
Think of all the white suburbanites in places like Texas and Georgia who have probably voted Republican by default their whole life and are starting to have second thoughts.
The fact that Warren went through the same thing is a perfect symbol of that, especially when you consider that she didn't really change her views or values much, she just looked around and decided there was no place for her anymore in the Republican Party.
(Plus there's also the fact that, according to her anyway, the only Republican she's ever voted for in a presidential election is Ford in 1976, which like... come on.)
What a fucking fraud
Just looking for another excuse to manipulate the economy
Presumably because Carter wasn't a great president. And I mean, he wasn't, but GOP are trash imo, even Ford.
The biggest thing that keeps my spirits up during this is that their "will not vote for this candidate" numbers remain low, and the lead 4 or 5 against Individual-1 remain high.
Cuz come March or so, we shift to "my choice" to "the only choice". This week only intensifies that reality.
Don't forget this ray of sunshine:
"FINISH HIM!"
"Amash wins! Fatality!!!"
Just keep the bus warmed up folks.
And again, Bank. Of. Cyprus.
Carter was legitimately a terrible, godawful leader who ended up nuking the party from within.
I have a feeling I would have been born into a country that had UHC had Ted Kennedy been President
Frankly I still cannot believe between FDR and LBJ alone, not even taking into account the power Dems had in Congress until 1994, they could not get UHC done. We would have been so much better off. It would have been baked into the fabric of society and it wouldn't even be a topic of discussion today, at least not seriously.
But with that being said I think Kennedy would have finally got it done if he won instead of Carter. Carter's leadership style wasn't aggressive enough to make it happen.
Predictably, market futures soaring. I'm sure Trump and his cronies had their buy orders in before market close.
It's almost like...
he's turning market analysis into fake news.
I mean seriously how much more of this manipulation can the country take, it has to be really bad for the economy beyond surface-level.
Nixon offered something pretty similar to the ACA in '73/'74. Ted Kennedy and other Congressional Democrats declined, insisting they'd wait until the next Democratic president. In retrospect, we should've taken the deal. The system would've been safe under Reagan because Democrats controlled the House, and we could've improved on it under subsequent Democratic presidents.
The Nixon "basically ACA" thing is something that I always love to kinda use to point out how sometimes you go for the incremental change and be damn glad for it. The world in which we live would be entirely different if we had done it in the 70s. Holding out for the perfect is not always the smart way to do things, and totally fricked us up long term. I get where Kennedy was coming from...but man that was a poor calculation.
Warren having the same favorability spread as Biden (although obviously with higher undecideds) strikes me as super interesting. Only one point underwater too.
As has been said before, Trump's approval ratings are horrible and the only way he can win is to drag his opponent down to his level. That worked on Clinton who Americans were already predisposed to dislike, but it probably won't be as effective on a relative newcomer like Warren. Moreover there's hardly any guarantee he'll be seen as the less worse option by voters who hate both candidates, as was the case with Clinton.
We'll see. But I'm encouraged.
As has been said before, Trump's approval ratings are horrible and the only way he can win is to drag his opponent down to his level. That worked on Clinton who Americans were already predisposed to dislike, but it probably won't be as effective on a relative newcomer like Warren. Moreover there's hardly any guarantee he'll be seen as the less worse option by voters who hate both candidates, as was the case with Clinton.
We'll see. But I'm encouraged.
I think the history of wealth taxes implemented by other nations and corresponding failures is probably what's going to doom its chances.
We need a candidate who's somewhat honest about the need for a complete tax reform that may not be popular but is realistic in what actually needs to be done.
I know, Nixon was fairly liberal (in today's world) on healthcare, and it was foolish for Kennedy and Congress to be stubborn and decline. That being said, Carter was the worst kind of dark horse... and selfish as it is, had Kennedy won (which imo he should have) he would have passed something like Nixon's plan or maybe even stronger; regardless, just having something like the ACA in place all the way back then would've done wonders for this country.
Of course, how could have Kennedy known the GOP would get so extreme? Still, a poor calculation on his part, and damn stubborn not to take Nixon up on it.
I still can't believe Carter managed to win over Kennedy. Like, what?
I know Carter was the sitting President and all, but wow.
Why didn't he run in 1976? I'm drawing a blank.
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Sanders is polling well in the first three states.
I don't see Sanders collapsing if this is what you are hoping for.
idk saying that you would vote for Ford over Carter in 1976 is similar to the talking point some lefties used in 2016 about how we should prefer Trump winning over Clinton because it would lead to the destruction of the Republican Party.
you don't vote based on some hypothetical chain reaction. the republicans were still shit in the 70s
but I guess we're relitigating the 1976 election now lmao
you don't vote based on some hypothetical chain reaction. the republicans were still shit in the 70s
but I guess we're relitigating the 1976 election now lmao
Never forgot Jimmy Carter basically torpedoed massive majorities in the House & Senate within weeks because he managed to basically upset Congress over some low stakes pork for water projects.
In short, Birch Bayh should've been the nominee in '76. Worst case, 4 more years of Ford w/ massive Democratic majorities and having to deal with economic issues.
You mean recapture the hundreds.of billions they grifted from the system by exploiting loopholes or straight up not paying?
Yeah im gonna cry a damn river for these pricks
Doubt AOC is against primary challenges on principle (obviously), but Markey is her best Senate partner on the Green New Deal.
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