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plagiarize

Eating crackers
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
27,540
Cape Cod, MA
If Trump ends up in jail (and hopefully he does) there's no plausible scenario where it happens before he is removed from office by election, or finishes serving an unlikely second term.

So keep that in mind. The state of NY aren't trying to remove him from office, they're trying to prove him guilty of any crimes he has committed.
 

Maxim726x

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
13,063
That's not true -- they didn't like the nature of the attack, but it still hurts Biden and it will continue to be a topic for him because he can't help but make dumb gaffes and offer rambling nonsensical word salad answers like in the debate. So castro will take the "hit" for it but biden still gets undermined. it did work for harris as well, she just couldn't leverage it like a good campaign would.

I don't know how you could argue that it worked for Harris, as her polling literally dropped by 50% in the first round of polling after that debate.

And for as much as people claim that Biden's gaffes have hurt him- Here he is, yet again, with a ten point lead over the second place candidate. If more polls show results like these, he basically has had no significant movement since the beginning of him campaign.
 

XMonkey

Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,827
I have no idea what Steyer is trying to accomplish other than appeasing his ego.
Often for people like him that's primarily what they are seeking to do.
I disagree. He would take a hard-line approach to use executive orders to further his agenda, and particularly against corporations who abuse the system for greed and profit. Call me crazy, but many people would be honored to work in a Sanders administration.
Governing by executive order is a terrible approach because the next President can just come in and get rid of those orders (what Trump did to Obama).

The goal needs to be passing legislation.
 

Maxim726x

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
13,063
Often people like him that's primarily what they are seeking to do.

Governing by executive order is a terrible approach because the next President can just come in and get rid of those orders (what Trump did to Obama).

The goal needs to be passing legislation.

That can never be an achievable goal without removing the filibuster, so it's basically the only tool through which any US President can enact... Anything. Unless you're lucky enough to have a super majority, and that's not going to happen again for a long, long time.
 

Pooh

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,849
The Hundred Acre Wood
I don't know how you could argue that it worked for Harris, as her polling literally dropped by 50% in the first round of polling after that debate.

And for as much as people claim that Biden's gaffes have hurt him- Here he is, yet again, with a ten point lead over the second place candidate. If more polls show results like these, he basically has had no significant movement since the beginning of him campaign.
Because that's not what happened?


USE%20THIS%20July%203%20Democratic%20polls.1562178292841.png


She just couldn't capitalize on it and ended up falling afterward.

Meanwhile we've seen in recent polls that Biden's electability argument is starting to be undermined... the certainty of him beating Trump is his main appeal and that is dropping with voters, whereas Warren's is rising.
 

XMonkey

Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,827
That can never be an achievable goal without removing the filibuster, so it's basically the only tool through which any US President can enact... Anything. Unless you're lucky enough to have a super majority, and that's not going to happen again for a long, long time.
Indeed, which is why the filibuster needs to go. That Bernie refuses to support that is maddening.
 

Maxim726x

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
13,063
Indeed, which is why the filibuster needs to go. That Bernie refuses to support that is maddening.

And then he says something even more head-scratching: He's going to pass everything via budgetary reconciliation... Which is, as I understand it, impossible as in order to pass anything through reconciliation it has to lower the budget over 10 year period. Clearly, none of his policy ideas will lower the budget.
 

Maxim726x

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
13,063
Because that's not what happened?


USE%20THIS%20July%203%20Democratic%20polls.1562178292841.png


She just couldn't capitalize on it and ended up falling afterward.

Meanwhile we've seen in recent polls that Biden's electability argument is starting to be undermined... the certainty of him beating Trump is his main appeal and that is dropping with voters, whereas Warren's is rising.

I'm not referring to the first debate- I'm referring to the second debate, where she went in particularly hard:



She dropped *12 points* from her high-point in June. Directly after the second debate.
 

Blader

Member
Oct 27, 2017
26,620
Indeed, which is why the filibuster needs to go. That Bernie refuses to support that is maddening.
I kept meaning to bring this up after the debate, but it is utterly bizarre to me that someone who champions political revolutions and uprooting the entrenched DC establishment is adamantly in favor of preserving the filibuster, an arcane legislative tool that doesn't even any basis in the Constitution. It doesn't make any sense and to me it's the biggest impediment for getting onboard with Bernie's candidacy. The idea that he can push through a Medicare for All bill, a Green New Deal bill, any bills that tackle immigration, guns, corruption, et al. with 60 votes either means he's being intentionally dishonest to his supporters (and for what, for the sake of the filibuster?!) or he is genuinely ignorant about this, both of which are super concerning. And it's a big part of the appeal of Warren and Pete to me: they are absolutely clear-eyed about this.


(I know Bernie has argued he wouldn't need to get rid of the filibuster because he will just abuse budget reconciliation to pass bills on a majority vote and have his VP overrule the parliamentarian if necessary, but that makes even less sense to me...)
 

Pooh

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,849
The Hundred Acre Wood
I'm not referring to the first debate- I'm referring to the second debate, where she went in particularly hard:



She dropped *12 points* from her high-point in June. Directly after the second debate.

That was less of an attack on Biden than a policy debate with him where she was clearly outmatched because she had no real plan; she came off as combative and not substantive. The fact that the first attack worked shows though that attacking Biden is fine, it just depends on how you do it. The argument that he is not progressive enough on racial issues is a valid attack vector and one that is needed to undermine his support with black voters giving him a pass for his Obama association, and attacking his electability is the other key pillar of his platform. Castro did it in a nasty sort of way that voters didn't like, but the premise that Biden has lost a step or two is not going away, and we see that constantly in the media. There's a reason why his campaign is acting so annoyed with the media because they keep pursuing it.
 

Tamanon

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
19,729
The whole concept of using the VP to overrule the parliamentarian instead of getting rid of the filibuster is insanity.

Either he doesn't want to actually govern, or he feels like it's political suicide. Both positions are odd.
 

spx54

Member
Mar 21, 2019
3,273
I'm not referring to the first debate- I'm referring to the second debate, where she went in particularly hard:



She dropped *12 points* from her high-point in June. Directly after the second debate.

she dropped after the second debate because tulsi kamikazed her and she generally gave a very weak performance
 

Beer Monkey

Banned
Oct 30, 2017
9,308
If Trump ends up in jail (and hopefully he does) there's no plausible scenario where it happens before he is removed from office by election, or finishes serving an unlikely second term.

So keep that in mind. The state of NY aren't trying to remove him from office, they're trying to prove him guilty of any crimes he has committed.

More plausible is by the time he leaves office they're going to say he has mentally degenerated so far that he isn't fit to stand trial.

And they might be right honestly.
 

Tamanon

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
19,729
The public seems perfectly fine with policy attacks. Which makes sense, as he's extremely popular. It's just moronic to try to package it with some attack on his mental health. Castro will soon be joining "Pass the Torch" on the sidelines for that nonsense.
 

Maxim726x

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
13,063
she dropped after the second debate because tulsi kamikazed her and she generally gave a very weak performance

Holy shit I completely forgot about that. Yeah, Tulsi's parting gift is the utter destruction of Kamala Harris. But, Harris definitely softened her tone for the third debate. So much that she seemed insincere and rehearsed, which probably hurt her a little more. She's finished now, probably.

Amazing how quickly we forget events that just transpired a month ago in this administration...
 

spx54

Member
Mar 21, 2019
3,273
Holy shit I completely forgot about that. Yeah, Tulsi's parting gift is the utter destruction of Kamala Harris. But, Harris definitely softened her tone for the third debate. So much that she seemed insincere and rehearsed, which probably hurt her a little more. She's finished now, probably.

Amazing how quickly we forget events that just transpired a month ago in this administration...

yeah, her trying to play the happy warrior did not work at all
 

Blader

Member
Oct 27, 2017
26,620
Holy shit I completely forgot about that. Yeah, Tulsi's parting gift is the utter destruction of Kamala Harris. But, Harris definitely softened her tone for the third debate. So much that she seemed insincere and rehearsed, which probably hurt her a little more. She's finished now, probably.

Amazing how quickly we forget events that just transpired a month ago in this administration...
Other than Castro and Beto, basically everyone done. It seemed pretty clear they all read the "Democrats beating up on Obama" takes from the second debate and course corrected (a little too obviously lol) this time around.
 

gcubed

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,785
And then he says something even more head-scratching: He's going to pass everything via budgetary reconciliation... Which is, as I understand it, impossible as in order to pass anything through reconciliation it has to lower the budget over 10 year period. Clearly, none of his policy ideas will lower the budget.
i think its an either/or. It needs to expire after 10 years if it raises the budget, or it can be passed fully if it is budget neutral. Either option isn't good
 

Uzuzu

Member
Nov 18, 2017
530
I'm torn on getting rid of the filibuster, i know it prevents progressive legislation, but I worry it might turn into a monkey-paw situation because the senate itself is undemocratic and skews more rural/conservative. I'd get rid of it after we add DC, Puerto Rico, and Greenland
 

GrapeApes

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
4,492
I'm torn on getting rid of the filibuster, i know it prevents progressive legislation, but I worry it might turn into a monkey-paw situation because the senate itself is undemocratic and skews more rural/conservative. I'd get rid of it after we add DC, Puerto Rico, and Greenland
Can't add those states with out getting rid of it though. You think Republicans going to let Greenland get a vote?
 

Plutone

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,745
Sorry, ladies and gentlemen, I've been knee deep in Daemon x Machina. What is this new Kavanaugh stuff I'm missing?
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,927
Sorry, ladies and gentlemen, I've been knee deep in Daemon x Machina. What is this new Kavanaugh stuff I'm missing?
In short, there was another accuser that the FBI knew about during the hearings and did not investigate. Longer, this is the article that set it all off again: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/14/...orah-ramirez-yale.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share

But while we found Dr. Ford's allegations credible during a 10-month investigation, Ms. Ramirez's story could be more fully corroborated. During his Senate testimony, Mr. Kavanaugh said that if the incident Ms. Ramirez described had occurred, it would have been "the talk of campus." Our reporting suggests that it was.

At least seven people, including Ms. Ramirez's mother, heard about the Yale incident long before Mr. Kavanaugh was a federal judge. Two of those people were classmates who learned of it just days after the party occurred, suggesting that it was discussed among students at the time.

We also uncovered a previously unreported story about Mr. Kavanaugh in his freshman year that echoes Ms. Ramirez's allegation. A classmate, Max Stier, saw Mr. Kavanaugh with his pants down at a different drunken dorm party, where friends pushed his penis into the hand of a female student. Mr. Stier, who runs a nonprofit organization in Washington, notified senators and the F.B.I. about this account, but the F.B.I. did not investigate and Mr. Stier has declined to discuss it publicly. We corroborated the story with two officials who have communicated with Mr. Stier; the female student declined to be interviewed and friends say she does not recall the episode.
 

Linkura

Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,943
Lmao Weld

May as well have invited Climate Daddy even though he's no longer in the race. He's more relevant than Weld is.
 

Diablos

has a title.
Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,588
I'm not referring to the first debate- I'm referring to the second debate, where she went in particularly hard:



She dropped *12 points* from her high-point in June. Directly after the second debate.
Kamala is definitely the most vulnerable out of the big four.

I really think after all the dust settles this is going to come down to Biden vs. Warren. For VP we will have Beto, Pete, maybe Kamala and Castro angling for VP.
 

Maxim726x

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
13,063
i think its an either/or. It needs to expire after 10 years if it raises the budget, or it can be passed fully if it is budget neutral. Either option isn't good

Okay, so you get a 10 year period regardless of whether or not said legislation raises the budget? Every time I try to research it I get different results, it's quite confusing.

So... Why aren't the GOP abusing the fuck out of it right now?
 

Arm Van Dam

self-requested ban
Banned
Mar 30, 2019
5,951
Illinois




Stern has now pissed off NC President Pro Tempore Phil Berger to the point he releases a fucking press release shitting on Stern's tweet
 

Kirblar

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
30,744
I kept meaning to bring this up after the debate, but it is utterly bizarre to me that someone who champions political revolutions and uprooting the entrenched DC establishment is adamantly in favor of preserving the filibuster, an arcane legislative tool that doesn't even any basis in the Constitution. It doesn't make any sense and to me it's the biggest impediment for getting onboard with Bernie's candidacy. The idea that he can push through a Medicare for All bill, a Green New Deal bill, any bills that tackle immigration, guns, corruption, et al. with 60 votes either means he's being intentionally dishonest to his supporters (and for what, for the sake of the filibuster?!) or he is genuinely ignorant about this, both of which are super concerning. And it's a big part of the appeal of Warren and Pete to me: they are absolutely clear-eyed about this.

(I know Bernie has argued he wouldn't need to get rid of the filibuster because he will just abuse budget reconciliation to pass bills on a majority vote and have his VP overrule the parliamentarian if necessary, but that makes even less sense to me...)
After the 2016 election cycle and hiring a guy like Sirota I'm very much onboard this read of things unfortunately.
 

Gazele

Member
Oct 25, 2017
972
Oh no. Just found out trump is coming to the city I work in tomorrow (SF)

Surprised he'd set foot in the bay area
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,816

This chart illustrates exactly what I've been the saying the past month. When Harris got a bump after the first debate, it came almost directly from eating into Biden's constituency. It's literally almost a 1:1 correlation on Harris numbers going up and Biden's numbers gong down. But once Biden steadied the ship, his supporters came back home so conversely Kamala's numbers went back down. Despite what some have said here, there's been very little overlap between Warren and Harris. During Kamala's rise and fall, Warren's numbers have moved completely independent of hers.

Which leads me again to my theory that if Biden takes a big tumble, Harris could end up benefiting moreso than Warren or Sanders. There's no reason for Harris to leave the race right now. Plus if Harris exceeds expectations in Iowa and NH, then South Carolina could break hard for her ala Obama. If Biden remains strong then yes I agree Harris probably won't get anymore oxygen. It's clear Sanders and Warren supporters have zero love for Harris. Biden is still steady in the polls, but he's visibly looking shakier and shakier with each passing month. Harris just needs to keep herself viable, which she successfully did last debate, and just wait and see if Biden keels over.
 
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