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US PoliEra 2019 |OT9| I'm really glad I'm not on Twitter nearly enough to understand all the references
- Thread starter TheHunter
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Idk I know that they don't mean everything but they also don't mean nothing
I think it's pretty safe to say looking at general match ups that nominating Pete would be an absolutely horrible idea
Also Biden has been leading Trump by like 12 points for an entire year and hasn't changed what so ever despite all the gaffes madness, etc. I.e I think if people cared about his Ukraine stuff we would have seen some movement
See they only didn't matter in that scenario though because primary voters said they didn't
I remember people dismissing them when Bernie tried to mention that by going "lol Gary Hart said the same thing lol didn't work lol"
Which to me was always super dumb because we ended up nominating someone who didn't win that election too so maybe we should pay more attention to these sorts of match ups because we have had a habit of ignoring them and then losing
According to RCP:
Biden is +8.9 on average
Bernie is +6.3 on average
Warren is +5.2 on average
So it's not such a big difference between the three candidates so far out from the general
Obviously there is a lot of things to consider, in 2020 I think the main thing to consider are the following. Fundraising, enthusiasm, number of volunteers, number of staff, number of offices in different states, union endorsements, online operation and last of all polling. Polling gives us an idea but it could be off the mark because it could under-represented thinks like:
Many new voters coming out to vote in the primary. Many independents vote in the Dem Primary instead of the Republican one(compared to 2016). Youth vote could be considerably higher in the primary because Sanders and Warren's have better organizations, than Sanders campaign had in 2016 etc.
Biden is +8.9 on average
Bernie is +6.3 on average
Warren is +5.2 on average
So it's not such a big difference between the three candidates so far out from the general
Obviously there is a lot of things to consider, in 2020 I think the main thing to consider are the following. Fundraising, enthusiasm, number of volunteers, number of staff, number of offices in different states, union endorsements, online operation and last of all polling. Polling gives us an idea but it could be off the mark because it could under-represented thinks like:
Many new voters coming out to vote in the primary. Many independents vote in the Dem Primary instead of the Republican one(compared to 2016). Youth vote could be considerably higher in the primary because Sanders and Warren's have better organizations, than Sanders campaign had in 2016 etc.
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The race looks incredibly stable when looking at national numbers.
Aside from Klob's weird 5%, all 3 polls all relatively stayed the same.
Biden being at 27% is like rock solid consistent across 90% of polls at this point, huh?
It would be ironic if you were one of the Bernie supporters in 2016 pointing at how Bernie was doing in head-to-heads as a reason why he would win.
Anyway, I did think that Bernie would do better than a damaged Hillary in the GE in 2016.
It would be ironic if you were one of the Bernie supporters in 2016 pointing at how Bernie was doing in head-to-heads as a reason why he would win.
Anyway, I did think that Bernie would do better than a damaged Hillary in the GE in 2016.
Eh, most of them are showing a clear top tier (Biden/Warren/Sanders), Buttigieg in the middle (and likely overperforming in if not winning Iowa) and Harris/Klob/Yang with a miniscule shot. It's pretty obvious how the field is shaping up now.
The unexpected twist and character development. We love to see it!
There is an "sketchy" Nevada poll (DNC appv) coming soon. Hopefully she's not polling sufficiently there. That poll might as well be her last chance to make it to the Nov debate.
According to Wikipedia's accounting of the polls, Harris has now qualified for the December debate thanks to the latest batch. Klobb only needs one more national poll to qualify, Yang needs 3, Tootsie needs 2 plus ~28k more donors, Steyer needs 3 plus ~34k more donors. No one else has any qualifying polls or donors.
Kamala is gonna be in until Iowa unless she completely runs out of cash.
Kamala is gonna be in until Iowa unless she completely runs out of cash.
Agreeing with you often amounts to having to saying "Bernie's totally has a chance!".
And, let me be clear, I don't actually hate Bernie with a burning passion or anything remotely like that. But it's very easy to come across that way when people get into the "he'll totally win the primary" or "all his policies are the objective best and everyone else's is objectively the status quo" circles.
True but if Biden loses Iowa and NH will he lose support in the following primaries?
He'll probably win SC though
Good news is that Kamala seems to have overperformed at the L&J dinner. It probably won't be enough, but I feel people are very hasty to count her out completely (when like, 2/3rds of caucus voters will make up their minds in the last month or so).
She's only got like 6% more name rec to burn. She does have an advantage in being a preferred second choice, so people dropping out could give her the lead.
If either Bernie or her dropped out, it would change the race by a lot.
I don't think he will. We'll see, though.
Why would Warren drop out? She's in second place and if her votes split between Biden and Bernie, Bernie would likely just catch up to where she is now.
Im being hyperbolic honey, I dont think Hillary literallly the worst woman alive.
I'd be a little more worried about her chances of beating Trump than Biden's.
Yikes at Warren's. One mistake or bad performance during a debate and she might end up getting Kamala'd.
She's been dropping for a while now. Problem is, Biden keeps going back up after each dip and Pete has been gaining while Bernie is stuck in the Cool People Zone.
I wonder if Warren is losing some affluent white people to Pete.
I don't know about that, but I think there is a lot of opportunity for Bernie to eat up that support.
Even if Sanders splits that support with buttigieg, he would Sanders would be in great shape.
That's exactly what's happening. Fortunately for her, I doubt Pete stays in if he doesn't win a state early on. Ironically, Pete and Biden's bases don't have much overlap.
Like Biden? lol
The "clear" story will be a positive twist for Warren even when numbers show otherwise.
The unexpected twist and character development. We love to see it!
There is an "sketchy" Nevada poll (DNC appv) coming soon. Hopefully she's not polling sufficiently there. That poll might as well be her last chance to make it to the Nov debate.
Maybe some day in the far-flung future, I can share my Peter Daou stories with the world. The short version is:I wouldn't want him supporting, endorsing, or interacting in any way with any candidate I liked.
Biden seems to have had some sort of role and gender attributes you are conveniently forgetting.
Ooh, Iowa too. I really want some general election polling there, not just for Trump but for Ernst as well.
Let's break this down.
In this poll Biden is 27%. With 50% being hard support, that's 13.5% of that total vote that Biden will never ever lose.
Warren is at 23%. With 32% hard support, her floor is 7.36%.
Sanders is at 19% in this poll. With 57% hard support, his floor is 10.8%.
Wait.. How is Trump changing his residence to Florida a "predictor" of what happens in the Midwest? is he moving to PA, MI,and WI too?
what the fuck is this take even? lol. You can have concerns, but Trumps "place of residence" shouldn't be one. Especially outside the state he'll be "residing" lmao.
what the fuck is this take even? lol. You can have concerns, but Trumps "place of residence" shouldn't be one. Especially outside the state he'll be "residing" lmao.
I was speaking in hypothetical. Neither of them should drop out, but I think they're both keeping each other from overtaking Biden
I think the "Just leaning" stat is important too for Warren. it's where the difference is rather than in the "probably" answer.
That's up for grabs.
It's not lol.
The dynamics that make Florida competitive are different than the Midwest. That's why you saw such a strong Dem snapback in MN, MI, WI, and PA (and to a lesser extent, OH and IA which had more mixed results but where Trump also did much better in 16) whereas FL was stubbornly red-leaning as always.
Like if you'd told me a year in advance that Bill Nelson would lose his seat, I would assume we were in for a heartbreak. While losing his seat was still a bummer, it wasn't exactly predictive.
Why do you think they can't lose this hard support? The hard support you are mentioning is likely to go the person who wins 2/3 during the first three states. Biden can't afford to lose all 3, but he is likely going to be facing such an outcome.
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