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US PoliEra 2019 |OT9| I'm really glad I'm not on Twitter nearly enough to understand all the references

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Steel

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220
Blader said:

Dave Weigel
@daveweigel

Current RCP averages vs Trump:
Biden: +10.2
Sanders: +7.9
Warren: +7.3

RCP margin for Clinton on this day in 2015: +2.2

Hmm
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I'm hesitant to draw conclusions from this. But I will say that a decent amount of pollsters are trying to overcompensate for 2016, so they'd probably be polling Hillary lower as well.
Ac30 said:
I agree with you! It just sucks that there's apparently no going too far right, because the EC rewards shit voters.
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It helps that shit voters know they have to turn out to enact their shit agenda and non-shit voters get de-motivated easily.
 
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access tv

access tv

Member
Oct 25, 2017
405
Well, Jones' campaign has its origin story now, I suppose—Mitch literally put a political hit out on his radio career. Maybe it's a play. Maybe Mitch *wants* Jones as an opponent. Maybe it's pettiness. Maybe it's. . . McConnell.
 
Steel

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220
Say what you will about Jordan, he deserves it, but Jordan knows exactly what he's doing. I mean, he likely knew what was going on at Ohio State and still weaseled out, so he has a history of covering for people's shit. He's not dumb, he's just a black hole of a human being.
 
adam387

adam387

Member
Nov 27, 2017
5,215
So, apparently, since I'm a pathological liar there's no reason to clarify....but I'll do it anyway.

When I said he was on our insurance, I didn't mean literally on our family plan. I meant he was covered under the insurance our company offers (the company we own), since he works for us part time.

But, like, whatever.
 
IggyChooChoo

IggyChooChoo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,230
OmniOne said:
So I think this clearly shows something.

So he's not a shit heel to own the Libs. He's just awful so he can own his own mother.

That's some deep scar tissue.
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IIRC Watters is randomly friends with some comedians like Gregg Turkington, who is (also IIRC) a socialist. I was under the impression that Watters didn't used to be such a right-wing apparatchik.

Teggy said:
I doubt that a small amount of students can make a big dent in the cheers that will probably come from the rest of the stadium.
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In my experience it doesn't take all that many boos to stand out among the cheers — maybe a committed 15-20% can at least come across to him, if not the tv audience.
 
fragamemnon

fragamemnon

Member
Nov 30, 2017
6,814
Ac30 said:
I agree with you! It just sucks that there's apparently no going too far right, because the EC rewards shit voters.
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If you go too far right you wind up with no base to build a coalition from.

Banning fracking is a shock the system approach to rapidly reducing carbon emissions. The only argument, and why I think a normally smart Warren supports it, is because the industry cannot be effectively regulated because of institutional and pervasive regulatory capture ( this is also IMO why she is all aboard Medicare 4All.)
 
Steel

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220
adam387 said:
So, apparently, since I'm a pathological liar there's no reason to clarify....but I'll do it anyway.

When I said he was on our insurance, I didn't mean literally on our family plan. I meant he was covered under the insurance our company offers (the company we own), since he works for us part time.

But, like, whatever.
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New line of attack: Adam is a 1%-er businessman trying to cover up his misdeeds with small acts of charity!!!

\s
 
AnotherNils

AnotherNils

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,936
Steel said:
I'm hesitant to draw conclusions from this. But I will say that a decent amount of pollsters are trying to overcompensate for 2016, so they're probably be polling Hillary lower as well.
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The Hillary number is from 2015, so if anything the 2019 candidate numbers are the most likely to be conservative.
 
fragamemnon

fragamemnon

Member
Nov 30, 2017
6,814
That Minnesota poll is exactly what I am hearing from my family there- they like Amy, but love Warren, and Bernie can go play in traffic. Tons of bad blood there with Clinton 2016 primary voters.
 
Dahbomb

Dahbomb

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,616
Trump has -20 and -21 job approval ratings on foreign policy and health care in that poll.

And it makes perfect sense. Literally has done fuck all to improve health care and just mad it worse. And on foreign policy... enough said.

These are two major avenues of attack against Trump while also muddying the waters on his economy actions (trade deals, tariffs, farmers etc.).
 
Aaron

Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,077
Minneapolis
Octodad said:
New poll out for Minnesota:


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They did Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin too.

MI: (first+second choice numbers in parentheses)

Warren 25 (43)
Biden 19 (27)
Sanders 15 (28)
Buttigieg 7 (16)
Harris 2 (10)

PA:

Biden 27 (34)
Warren 18 (37)
Sanders 14 (24)
Harris 4 (8)
Buttigieg 3 (14)

WI:

Warren 22 (41)
Biden 17 (25)
Sanders 10 (21)
Buttigieg 6 (11)
Klobuchar 3 (8)
Harris 3 (8)

Hard to see how the advantage doesn't eventually go to Warren when second choice voters are factored in.

Seems like Warren and Sanders would have the biggest challenge selling their rhetoric to swing voters, but I think Warren could do it. I've found the wealth tax is a pretty easy sell.
 
Dahbomb

Dahbomb

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,616
How is Bernie losing against even Biden in Michigan? He even beat Clinton in Michigan in 2016!

Michael Moore on suicide watch.
 
EvilChameleon

EvilChameleon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,793
Ohio
I would not watch a version of The Apprentice based around politics. Hell, even the season Arnold hosted was a bore. Was the first season I didn't make it through.
 
OmniOne

OmniOne

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,063


Another scooplet from me: More than 100 black women activists including @CharleneCac @FeministaJones @iKaylaReed are backing @SenWarren today in a letter explaining their support and listing criteria they would hold her accountable for as president:
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A group of more than 100 black female activists is endorsing Elizabeth Warren for president, saying her stances on a range of issues speak directly to black voters.
In a letter released on Thursday, the group Black Womxn For says its endorsement is an extension of activism that has helped shape a progressive agenda in the 2020 Democratic primary. The group calls Warren a "leader" and "partner" with a proven track record and understanding of structural racism and inequality who is willing to be held accountable.
The group's director, Angela Peoples, says she hopes the letter will encourage other black women to support the Massachusetts senator publicly.
Warren is scheduled to visit the historically black college North Carolina A&T State University later Thursday.
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https://www.blackwomxnfor.com/fullendorse
 
Seattle6418

Seattle6418

Member
Oct 25, 2017
528
Brasília Brazil
Let´s remind ourselves that this a non rated pollster using a sample size of 200-300 likely voters. I don´t know why you would go to all the trouble of conducting a poll to use such a small sample size. Back when i worked in a campaign, internal tracking was roughly 1k people each day.
 
Gazele

Gazele

Member
Oct 25, 2017
972
Why should anyone care about the whistleblower at this point? We have testimony from multiple people on the call
 
RastaMentality

RastaMentality

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,127
OmniOne said:






https://www.blackwomxnfor.com/fullendorse
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The list of demands is pretty cool.

  1. Act With Moral Leadership: Sen. Warren has taken a stance against the White supremacy and misogyny that are woven into the fabric of this country. Policy change is not enough. Sen. Warren has committed to devoting money, staffing resources, and the bully pulpit towards rooting out the culture of white supremacy, exploitation-for-profit, and misogynoir in our schools, legislative language, federal hiring practices, medical institutions, arts and culture, and all areas of our society.

  2. Collaborative Policy-Making Process: Big structural change requires big shifts in the dynamics of power. People most impacted by systems of oppression know the solutions and should be central to crafting policy change.
    Sen. Warren has agreed to hold a People's Policy-Making Summit in the first 100 days of her administration that puts Black women, working people of color, disabled people, Indigenous people, and diverse community leaders and experts in the driver's seat of structural reforms in her administration.

  3. Accountability, not Perfection: We do not expect any one candidate to be perfect. We know that all elected leaders can and will fall short of our hopes in different ways. We want a president that is committed to mutual accountability with the people who elected them. Sen. Warren has committed to an accountability process that includes naming the harm, accepting responsibility, outlining steps to make those who are negatively impacted whole, and changes in behavior. This process will be outlined and ratified at the People's Policy Making Summit in collaboration with community and organizing leaders.

  4. Changing the Face of the Federal Government: There are hundreds of positions in the federal government that the Senator will have the opportunity to appoint. In 2018, 93% of people running our government were white and 80% were white men. Senator Warren has committed to fundamentally changing the internal and external face of the federal government by appointing more Black women, especially trans and immigrant women, Black men, Indigenous people, people of color and disabled people. She has agreed to apply a race and gender equity impact analysis when hiring for her transition team and administration.
 
Ithil

Ithil

Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,372
cameron said:
AZGOP:




Dr. Kelli Ward @kelliwardaz

Should we look toward an #ElectoralCollege type system at the state level? #Elections2019

10:14 PM - Nov 6, 2019




Trevor Nelson @CTrevorNelson

Nope
(How is a Republican against local control? )

10:16 PM - Nov 6, 2019


Dr. Kelli Ward @kelliwardaz

How is listening to every part of the state "against local control?" I don't think the Feds should implement it, states should. As a rural AZ resident, it is frustrating that the state's population centers, Phoenix & Tucson, could control politics in this conservative state.

10:33 PM - Nov 6, 2019
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Under an electoral college type system all those empty counties would be worth like 1-2 electoral votes, and the big city and suburbs would be 10-20. So...nothing changes.
 
Steel

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220
Seattle6418 said:
Let´s remind ourselves that this a non rated pollster using a sample size of 200-300 likely voters. I don´t know why you would go to all the trouble of conducting a poll to use such a small sample size. Back when i worked in a campaign, internal tracking was roughly 1k people each day.
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Which one? The KFF one has N=500-767 some even at ~1000. I do find it weird that Kaiser is unrated. It's not like they haven't been doing polls for a long time now.
 
MMBosstones86

MMBosstones86

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,174
Gazele said:
Why should anyone care about the whistleblower at this point? We have testimony from multiple people on the call
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For everyone paying attention? The whistleblower doesn't matter anymore. We have first, second, third, etc hand knowledge of the call and they are all corroborating.

GOP wants him/her to come forward just so they can shit on the person and claim a deep state conspiracy started on a sham blah blah blah
 
Steel

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220
Titanpaul said:
What else do they have? This should have concluded weeks ago with a proper vote. Trump admitted to it several times (after lying). Then multiple people said the same thing.
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Eh, you need to have the public hearings in any case.
VectorPrime said:
This makes me feel good.
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Seattle's point that they are an unrated pollster is worth noting. I do know KFF has been doing polls for a long time now, not sure about election polls, though, so that may be why 538 never bothered to rate them.
 
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