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Skatterd

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,161
I asked this earlier but no one responded. Has anything been written about why online polls have been tougher for Trump than live phone call polls? The obvious explanation is phone calling skews older people but any good pollster whether online or live will weight their sample to account for that kind of stuff.

Who the fuck answers phones?
 

Haubergeon

Member
Jan 22, 2019
2,269
Me too. A vote is not an endorsement in FPTP elections, it's just A or B. And garbage A is definitely better than apocalypse B.

Stop tying your identities to your vote.

Absolutely agree with this and have always thought it was sort of silly how attached people get to their votes as if it's some sort of extension of themselves and some cross they have to bear for their entire lives. In practically any hypothetical matchup between Trump and a Democrat, I will vote for the Democrat, even if it's someone very very much unpreferable, like Biden. It's not really a huge effort to vote most of the time, and it's obviously the better of the two options by miles and miles. That's really all there is to it, imo.

There's plenty to be said about whether or not certain candidates or others are nearly good enough, but refusing to vote at all when Trump is on the ballot is deeply irresponsible.
 

VectorPrime

Banned
Apr 4, 2018
11,781
Something I've noticed about online polls vs live call polls is that online polls are very steady. YouGov, MorningConsult, Civiqs, Ipsos all have a very steady range of approval/disapproval for Trump going back forever. But live phone calls go up and down and sometimes seem to follow no noticeable pattern. It's weird.

Id love to pick Nate Silvers brain about this.
 

adam387

Member
Nov 27, 2017
5,215
I know there's no reason to use any mental energy thinking about a Tulsi nomination because it's fucking Tulsi....

But, as a gay man, and speaking only for myself, i don't know that I could vote for her. Her and her cult don't believe people like me, famliies like mine, relationships like mine should exist. Have I voted for candidates with shitty LGBT records in the past? Of course. Have I voted for a dictator loving, anti-LGBT, cult member.....no. I do not know that I could do it. I genuinely don't. I'd still vote....but idk if I could vote for her.

But, like I said, totally irrelevant to reality.
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,927
I'm skipping Bernie vs Warren shenanigans. It's always something with him and the people around him. I'm still with Warren if she gets that far.



This is a direct result of his admitting he was a sucker and having so little awareness. Amazing.
Is this why someone posted non-ironically that they like Chuck Todd today? I was wondering what would prompt it.
 

SerAardvark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
986

Seeya

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,984
theintercept.com

Fact Check: Joe Biden Has Advocated Cutting Social Security for 40 Years

“I tried with Senator Grassley back in the 1980s to freeze all government spending, including Social Security, including everything,” Biden said in 1995.

Fuck Joe Biden

I mean I'll vote for him in the GE if he's the nominee but I will be so utterly bitter

Joe Biden is a serial liar with a long ass history of Racism and terrible instincts. Sadly he may be our Nominee, but we'll see how all of this shakes out.
 

Tfritz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,254
instead of wasting brain cells thinking about chuck todd, stream big freedia's hit 2019 single "louder"
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,927
I was gonna make a Chuck Todd to Chuck God to Chuck Todd to Chuck (blank) but couldn't think of a rhyme so I went to an online rhyming dictionary and it said blackboard rhymes with fraud? What?
 

Seeya

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,984
Canada follows the US as they say. They just had their 2012 moment. They will probably have their 2014 moments soon enough, and then their 2016 moment will be something to behold.

I'd take my chances in Mexico; despite everything that's a country that will be on the upswing this century.

What was our 2012 moment?
 

FreezePeach

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
12,811
It's how you know true Trump normalization has completed is when everyone is just discussing 'insert x democrat here who i cant in good faith vote for'.
 

Jiggy

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
9,278
wherever
I don't think Warren's a liar and I don't think Bernie's a sexist.

Anyways back to the surge:



If this poll is accurate then Bernie is capitalizing on Kamala dropping out which is hilarious considering how much their online supporters utterly despise each other
 
Oct 27, 2017
17,973
Schiff on MSNBC just said he found out about the Russian hacking of Burisma via news reports, not from intel community sources or the trump admin. Still a bit of surprise hearing that.
 

VectorPrime

Banned
Apr 4, 2018
11,781
I don't think Warren's a liar and I don't think Bernie's a sexist.

Anyways back to the surge:



If this poll is accurate then Bernie is capitalizing on Kamala dropping out which is hilarious considering how much their online supporters utterly despise each other


I am extremely hesitant to believe that Warren received exactly zero bump from Harris dropping out especially in CA. She was the clear second choice for Harris voters per polling. I mean Bernie getting all of it? I'm skeptical.
 

Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,077
Minneapolis
I don't think Warren's a liar and I don't think Bernie's a sexist.

Anyways back to the surge:



If this poll is accurate then Bernie is capitalizing on Kamala dropping out which is hilarious considering how much their online supporters utterly despise each other

So Sanders, Biden and Warren basically split the delegates three ways. Neat!
 

Jiggy

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
9,278
wherever
So Sanders, Biden and Warren basically split the delegates three ways. Neat!

If either Bernie or Warren don't win the first three states and shift the electability narrative away from Biden then he'll probably end the race on Super Tuesday.

(I exclude Pete cause I don't think he's ever picking up black voters)
 

Ogodei

One Winged Slayer
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
10,256
Coruscant
Schiff on MSNBC just said he found out about the Russian hacking of Burisma via news reports, not from intel community sources or the trump admin. Still a bit of surprise hearing that.

It's clear they're icing the Gang of Eight out on pretty much all matters. Trump's cronies like Graham or Nunes get a heads up... maybe.
 

UberTag

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
15,338
Kitchener, ON
If either Bernie or Warren don't win the first three states and shift the electability narrative away from Biden then he'll probably end the race on Super Tuesday.

(I exclude Pete cause I don't think he's ever picking up black voters)
That's been the safe money bet for the past 2-3 months (since Warren started her slide).

Hell, the only thing that's changed is now it's looking like Biden is competitive in IA/NH (where he was buried before) and may just make his nomination a virtual certainty even before Super Tuesday.

That said, Bernie's not dropping out until the convention even if he has zero delegates at that point (he'll have some, but you get my point).
 

patientzero

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,729

tumblr_mhky4jMSsU1qc0ctfo1_r1_400.gif


Yeah I'm finding it very telling that "I'm not even sure you lifelong committed Democratic voters are even going to vote for this Democratic nominee!" is the first idea

It is infuriating, constantly and consistently, to think that a host of motherfuckers who are presumably younger than me can cast any judgment on voting patterns when I've been voting constant Democratic since 2004, as someone who has paid attention to politics since the late 90s in my nascent teen years.

Go figure, some of us have been here before, realized decades ago that ALL Republicans are shit, and have committed to the cause ever since. But somehow we are suspect.

Speaking of, doing my weekly Facebook check-in, of fucking course I see this shared via an old colleague -

82469696_128386855315907_1451967862540337152_n.jpg


And here is the goddamn problem. In what world, in what reality, in what bubble do you possibly find yourself where not only are Warren and Sanders the ONLY available choices, but somehow so far apart as to engender this shit? It's the leftist version of my conservative grandmother who somehow thinks Catholics and evangelicals are the opposite end of a spectrum; it negates so much of reality as to render you moot to 95% of people that exist.
 

VectorPrime

Banned
Apr 4, 2018
11,781
tumblr_mhky4jMSsU1qc0ctfo1_r1_400.gif




It is infuriating, constantly and consistently, to think that a host of motherfuckers who are presumably younger than me can cast any judgment on voting patterns when I've been voting constant Democratic since 2004, as someone who has paid attention to politics since the late 90s in my nascent teen years.

Go figure, some of us have been here before, realized decades ago that ALL Republicans are shit, and have committed to the cause ever since. But somehow we are suspect.

Speaking of, doing my weekly Facebook check-in, of fucking course I see this shared via an old colleague -

82469696_128386855315907_1451967862540337152_n.jpg


And here is the goddamn problem. In what world, in what reality, in what bubble do you possibly find yourself where not only are Warren and Sanders the ONLY available choices, but somehow so far apart as to engender this shit? It's the leftist version of my conservative grandmother who somehow thinks Catholics and evangelicals are the opposite end of a spectrum; it negates so much of reality as to render you moot to 95% of people that exist.

How is teaching at Ivy League school a bad thing?
 

shadow_shogun

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,732

@kylegriffin1

Senate Minority Leader Schumer confirms to @maddow that the New York Times report is news to him, too: "It shows the great need for election security." https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1216907837370257408 …
Kyle Griffin

✔@kylegriffin1

Chairman Schiff tells @maddow that he is a "bit distressed" that he first learned about the Russian hacking effort of Burisma from the New York Times report and that the Intelligence Community has not come to the Intel Committee with any information about it.

602

9:35 PM - Jan 13, 2020
 
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