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US PoliEra 2020 |OT 1| THE ANTI BENGHAZI (Read Staff Post)
- Thread starter TheHunter
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that brief moment where i thought everything was going to be alright
jesus
Who cares what the Des Moines Register says
Iowa's a red state don'tchaknow
tbh this just makes me even more upset NYT chickened out and didn't just endorse Warren
the only reason it's not sanders leading is because those 2 terrible polls are included in the aggregate.
just go with the aggregate and take it for what it is
also sanders is leading
Everyone here all agreed that the polls were off. That said they showed positive movement for Sanders. As an example, one of them had Sanders at 9 in their previous poll at a time when his average was near 20.
We'll see if this moves things around. The NYT endorsement did nothing. Des Moines did nothing for Clinton in 2016. I don't think the needle moves.
I feel like Warren might even be down in the next DSR poll but maybe not. If she's able to create comanding momentum that's good too. Warren or Sanders winning Iowa is alright but Elizabeth needs to prove she can create an electoral alliance beyond white people.
Yeah, that happens when you have seven candidates you running abou 5% you know?
He has a less white demographic this time around and decisive lead with Hispanics, who broke for Clinton mostly in 2016.
I feel like Warren might even be down in the next DSR poll but maybe not. If she's able to create comanding momentum that's good too. Warren or Sanders winning Iowa is alright but Elizabeth needs to prove she can create an electoral alliance beyond white people.
Yeah, that happens when you have seven candidates you running abou 5% you know?
He has a less white demographic this time around and decisive lead with Hispanics, who broke for Clinton mostly in 2016.
A theory of how economics works that works purely on faith where no amount of evidence will dissuade its followers. Modern austrian economics also falls into this category.
Again -- don't make excuses for an aggregate you don't like. Just take it for what it is. 538's been doing this for a while and has been pretty good.
lol, in that video Trump talks about he wanted anyone but Bernie and they laugh about hoping Biden runs in 2020.
Please don't make me explain the difference between a 2 person race and a 5 person race.
Again, I accept the aggregate, but even Nate will tell you —and has in the past— that a few polls at a certain time can make the aggregator do funky things. Nate has even talked about how the aggregator was funky a few weeks back due to the lack of sufficient polling at state level.
The weighting from those pollsters will be rectified with time as they have more polls to judge them by.
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How many polls have actually been conducted in full since the NYT endorsement? Sort of early to say it "did nothing" and this seems like wishcasting.
It's the same coalition of voters.
Young, very liberal. (9% of voters over 65)
He won young people of colour last time around.
What he doesn't have is the advantage of being a man against a woman.
And that woman being Hillary Clinton.
So the lack of caucuses that amplify (loud) young, very liberal people, doesn't help.
Young, very liberal. (9% of voters over 65)
He won young people of colour last time around.
What he doesn't have is the advantage of being a man against a woman.
And that woman being Hillary Clinton.
So the lack of caucuses that amplify (loud) young, very liberal people, doesn't help.
it can, but take it for what it is and don't try to put asterisks on it.
*whispers*
I'm kinda with you on this one. I think Bernie more than likely doesn't get the Senate because of ticket splitters so like, what's the point then?
Except this time in a more fractured field it's much more possible he could win. Cohn had a good article about this the other day and dismissing it outright at this point seems fairly foolish.
This is the fundamental weakness of the campaign that I see- I can't see him beating Biden heads up because Biden will be far more attractive to the conservative, predominantly white voters he was winning on top of his core ideological fanbase. The primary going heads up would be awful for him.
Not just foolish, it's a really weird take to have after the last 3-4 weeks.
We get to answer the question "What can a progressive in office do?"
Understanding political realities will be a net positive for the current generation.
The most viable fracture is Warren / Sanders though.
I mean maybe Steyer and Bloomberg continue on after Iowa. I don't expect so.
Buttigieg basically tanks after Iowa. As does Amy.
This vote does not coalesce to Sanders.
Even in the Siena poll, 55% would rather have a more moderate candidate.
I think I need a coffee mug with this on it 🤔
Take it for what it is.*
*and don't try and put an asterisk on it.
Emerson polled after the endorsement, Monmouth 1/16 - 1/20 (endorsement happened 1/19). She was +1 in E and -3 in M. The Economist also polled after the endorsement and she was +3 but they don't count hihi.
Bernie, Biden and Warren are all pretty old.
VP pick has never been more important
I feel like this article does a good job explaining the possibility of him winning. It's not a large one, but it's certainly there and larger than 2016, and dismissing it seems silly.
Sure. But only one of them has had heart surgery in the past 6 months.
yes, a new generation for the third way sounds fantastic.
He will do better against Biden with AAs and Latino voters vs Hillary but it remains to be seen if it will be by enough of a margin to win. We will find out in about a month after the first 4.
This assumes that said generation doesn't take as its lesson, "Even Bernie was a fraud because he didn't end debt, so voting doesn't matter anyway because politicians just let you down"
Ding ding ding!
Jeb! to take is all then.
I panicked when it clicked to me that The Economist poll happened right after the endorsement lol.
Anyyyyyyyyway, Warren dropping in Iowa comes from diminishing numbers with young people, and I pretty much doubt they will be sensible to a DMR
She's adorable ugh. Alaska!
OP
OP
Or the most likely people she could pick up are col+ whites from Pete who would care about endorsements.
While everyone's focused on Iowa, what would y'all say is the second most important win?
Nevada?
Nevada?
I mean, I feel like it's going to happen and that's one of my frustrations. Look at the reaction towards Warren for having the audacity to actually announce an implementation strategy for M4A.
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