US PoliEra 2020 |OT 1| THE ANTI BENGHAZI (Read Staff Post)

[daschysta]

Not really. Bernie's criminal justice and immigration bills are based off bills that one of those "moderates" wrote and he cosponsored.

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Speaking economically. I have no problem obviously with Bookers or Castros positions on immigration or Crime. Someone with the same policy socially, but moderate economically is indeed moderate in comparison. To argue otherwise dismisses economics, which are just as important to sanders and warren voters.

I think pretty it's obvious that to pull voters away from Bernie and Warren you needed the economic component as well. Hence the youth vote coalescing around the oldest candidate. He is offering something the others don't including all of the candidates closer to their own age.

 

[Blue Skies]

• 3feb 41 Iowa caucuses
• 11feb 24 New Hampshire primary
• 22feb 36 Nevada caucuses
• 29feb 54 South Carolina primary
• 3mar (Super Tuesday)
  • 52 Alabama primary
  • 6 American Samoa caucuses
  • 31 Arkansas primary
  • 415 California primary
  • 67 Colorado primary
  • 24 Maine primary
  • 91 Massachusetts primary
  • 75 Minnesota primary
  • 110 North Carolina primary
  • 37 Oklahoma primary
  • 64 Tennessee primary
  • 228 Texas primary
  • 29 Utah primary
  • 16 Vermont primary
  • 99 Virginia primary

I know IOWA is important for momentum, but look at these delegate counts. Who takes Cali/Texas/North Carolina/Minnesota?

 

[NihonTiger]

Kamala, Castro, Booker.

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You're right, but l guess I suspected the Sanders camp would pull a VP from the progressive pool. Someone like Rashida Tlaib or something like that.

It's a shame Jayapal is ineligible to be president, because she's a pretty solid VP consideration on the progressive side otherwise.

 

[Aaron]

Madam Speaker with the high favorability (for a congressional leader).

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I want to see what it looks like once Democrats have the trifecta again and all the amazing bills she's passed actually stand a chance at becoming law.

All that stuff needs to happen within the first hundred days, even if it takes killing the filibuster. Gotta restore peoples' confidence in government's ability to do anything and the Democrats' ability to legislate, as opposed to the Republicans who took a fucking year to pass a bill of any consequence after the other bill of any consequence died a fiery death.

 

[Zeroro]

My favorite kind of attack is when Trump Campaign/The GOP lay out Bernie/AOC's agenda and try their damn hardest to make it sound bad and it still ends up sounding good lmao

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Saw an ad on YouTube yesterday meant to attack AOC and "Socialism," and it was a clip of her saying all people should have due process with scary music behind it.

 

[Sheepinator]

Saw an ad on YouTube yesterday meant to attack AOC and "Socialism," and it was a clip of her saying all people should have due process with scary music behind it.

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Turn it into a Dem ad, and add in Trump's comment to, "Take the firearms first, due process second. I like to take the guns quickly."

 

[Blue Skies]

• 3feb 41 Iowa caucuses
• 11feb 24 New Hampshire primary
• 22feb 36 Nevada caucuses
• 29feb 54 South Carolina primary
• 3mar (Super Tuesday)
  • 52 Alabama primary
  • 6 American Samoa caucuses
  • 31 Arkansas primary
  • 415 California primary
  • 67 Colorado primary
  • 24 Maine primary
  • 91 Massachusetts primary
  • 75 Minnesota primary
  • 110 North Carolina primary
  • 37 Oklahoma primary
  • 64 Tennessee primary
  • 228 Texas primary
  • 29 Utah primary
  • 16 Vermont primary
  • 99 Virginia primary

I know IOWA is important for momentum, but look at these delegate counts. Who takes Cali/Texas/North Carolina/Minnesota?

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Is anyone here an expert on how exactly these primaries work?

ill Venmo you $0.69 if you make an informative thread

 

[Steel]

Speaking economically. I have no problem obviously with Bookers or Castros positions on immigration or Crime. Someone with the same policy socially, but moderate economically is indeed moderate in comparison. To argue otherwise dismisses economics, which are just as important to sanders and warren voters.

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Immigration and crime are absolutely economic issues. Gun control intersects economics from multiple angles, as well. From the electoral side, most of these candidates have more robust plans to reform the electoral and legislative system than Bernie does. You're dismissing everything that isn't healthcare and overemphasizing differences in taxation.

I think pretty it's obvious that to pull voters away from Bernie and Warren you needed the economic component as well. Hence the youth vote coalescing around the oldest candidate. He is offering something the others don't including all of the candidates closer to their own age.

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I don't see voters voting based on policy here, at all, so I don't agree. The public option is more popular than single payer, so... Anyway, Booker was too nice and inoffensive to stick out, Castro was too unknown. It's all about name rec for those two and neither of them had it. Beto had the weirdest campaign apparatus possible that consisted mostly of in person stand on table speeches. Harris de-railed her points at every opportunity.

Meanwhile you had Bernie and Biden starting the race with 98% name recognition and Bernie already having a base cultivated as the not-Hillary candidate in 2016. Those points more easily explain their positions. Warren taking off was the anomaly, but she dived back down when Pete started his advertising blitz to gain name rec.

 

[RastaMentality]

Lo fucking l

 

[Surfinn]

I really fucking hate Tom Cotton

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They both know he doesn't believe what he's arguing

 

[Vector]

I think a huge part in people's perception of politicians as progressive or moderate is played by their rhetoric, and Booker and Kamala were incredibly weak on this and served up platitude salad while Warren ans Sanders were going full class warfare.

You won't be taken seriously as a progressive unless you tap into that energy. Pete understood this, which is why he took off initially within progressive circles, but opted out of it because he thought he could take Biden's lane.

 

[Tfritz]

weird that the Klobmeister got the endorsement of The Big City Coastal Elites but not from the Working Class Salt Of The Earth Midwestern Heartlanders, who i have been assured loooooove her folksy storyteller schtick

 

[Linkura]

Ugh the campaign surrogates this cycle are so damn annoying.

One thing I do see is that Forma doesn't really have an annoying surrogate like Biden/Booty/Bernard do.

 

[Blue Skies]

I think a huge part in people's perception of politicians as progressive or moderate is played by their rhetoric, and Booker and Kamala were incredibly weak on this and served up platitude salad while Warren ans Sanders were going full class warfare.

You won't be taken seriously as a progressive unless you tap into that energy. Pete understood this, which is why he took off initially within progressive circles, but opted out of it because he thought he could take Biden's lane.

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and he miscalculated. Bidens lane isn't "moderate" its "biden"

 

[Blue Skies]

weird that the Klobmeister got the endorsement of The Big City Coastal Elites but not from the Working Class Salt Of The Earth Midwestern Heartlanders, who i have been assured loooooove her folksy storyteller schtick

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I think I know more about her Uncle that I know about her

 

[Aaron]

weird that the Klobmeister got the endorsement of The Big City Coastal Elites but not from the Working Class Salt Of The Earth Midwestern Heartlanders, who i have been assured loooooove her folksy storyteller schtick

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Curious who Star Tribune endorses in the race, if Klobuchar is still in it by Super Tuesday they might feel obligated to endorse her. Her dad used to run the paper.

 

[Y2Kev]

Klob talks like you imagine a bobblehead would talk.

 

[Iolo]

CBS has Biden and Sanders virtually tied in IA, with Pete a hair behind.

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Definitely concerned Amy's failure to hit viability will put Biden over the top.

 

[Blue Skies]

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination

www.realclearpolitics.com

don't want to discourage y'all bernie folk, but Bernie's current 22.7 RCP avg still hasn't met his national average peak of 24 percent, Warrens peak of 26.8 percent, or Bidens current 29.1.

 

[daschysta]

Immigration and crime are absolutely economic issues. Gun control intersects economics from multiple angles, as well. From the electoral side, most of these candidates have more robust plans to reform the electoral and legislative system than Bernie does. You're dismissing everything that isn't healthcare and overemphasizing differences in taxation.


I don't see voters voting based on policy here, at all, so I don't agree. Booker was too nice and inoffensive to stick out, Castro was too unknown. It's all about name rec for those two and neither of them had it. Beto had the weirdest campaign apparatus possible that consisted mostly of in person stand on table speeches. Harris de-railed her points at every opportunity.

Meanwhile you had Bernie and Biden starting the race with 98% name recognition and Bernie already having a base cultivated as the not-Hillary candidate in 2016. Those points more easily explain their positions. Warren taking off was the anomaly, but she dived back down when Pete started his advertising blitz to gain name rec.

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If you dont think Bernie's economic platform, along with healthcare are huge differentiators I don't know what to tell you. The focus on inequality is a fundamental part of his appeal.

I don't, obviously disagree (I am a Sanders supporter!) about the intersectionality of immigration and crime policy and economics, but Bernie goes a fair bit further in addressing Climate, Housing, Healthcare, Inequality, Corporate regulation and many other things on comparison.

Trust is also a component here as well. Bernie has far more credibility from his long history of activism on these issues in voters minds as well. Let us not pretend there were a bunch of 40 year olds with platforms just as left that we simply ignored in favor of the 78 year old.
It's a bit insulting.

 

[Blue Skies]

 

[Steel]

If you dont think Bernie's economic platform, along with healthcare are huge differentiators I don't know what to tell you. The focus on inequality is a fundamental part of his appeal.

I don't, obviously disagree (I am a Sanders supporter!) about the intersectionality of immigration and crime policy and economics, but Bernie goes a fair bit further in addressing Climate, Housing, Healthcare, Inequality, Corporate regulation and many other things on comparison.

Trust is also a component here as well. Bernie has far more credibility from his long history of activism on these issues in voters minds as well. Let us not pretend there were a bunch of 40 year olds with platforms just as left that we simply ignored in favor of the 78 year old.
It's a bit insulting.

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First, I'm not assuming your process for picking a candidate, I'm talking about the broader electorate (which, in fact, prefers the public option by double digits, for example), in which case it's based on name rec and likability, not anything else. I'm also not saying Sanders and anyone else are exactly the same. I'm just saying the "moderate in comparison to platforms" that actually aren't that far off and in some cases go further isn't really accurate.

Personally I don't "trust" politicians, so it's not a factor for me. It's a matter of what they've done and what the congressional environment will be, the latter weighing more heavily.

 

[daschysta]

Definitely concerned Amy's failure to hit viability will put Biden over the top.

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True, though the 15 percent threshold is district by district. Polling at 15 percrnt leaves the possibility that Warren also doesn't reach viability in certain districts as well which would benefit (if polling holds I vould see a small DMR bump).

 

[Blue Skies]

What happens to peoples delegates if they drop out before convention?

lets sayPete Buttigieg and Amy drop out after super Tuesday, where do there delegates go

 

[daschysta]

First, I'm not assuming your process for picking a candidate, I'm talking about the broader electorate (which, in fact, prefers the public option by double digits, for example), in which case it's based on name rec and likability, not anything else. I'm also not saying Sanders and anyone else are exactly the same. I'm just saying the "moderate in comparison to platforms" that actually aren't that far off and in some cases go further isn't really accurate.

Personally I don't "trust" politicians, so it's not a factor for me. It's a matter of what they've done and what the congressional environment will be, the latter weighing more heavily.

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I get that voters on a whole are less ideological, but Sanders voters in particular care pretty deeply about those differences. Authenticity and trust certainly move the needle with a general electorate as well.

We can agree to disagree of course, but in my view the differences in healthcare, taxation aand others aren't negligible and cannot simply be handwaved when comparing a how transformative a campaigns platform is candidates, nor can trust be dismissed when evaluating whether voters believe a candidate will actually push to implement it.

 

[Tamanon]

What happens to peoples delegates if they drop out before convention?

lets sayPete Buttigieg and Amy drop out after super Tuesday, where do there delegates go

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Generally, they just hang around until the convention, where their candidate asks them to vote a certain way.

 

[RastaMentality]

 

[daschysta]

What happens to peoples delegates if they drop out before convention?

lets sayPete Buttigieg and Amy drop out after super Tuesday, where do there delegates go

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They should stay till the convention at which time they can pledge to another candidate if theirs are not viable. Current polling suggests that Amy should have no delegates after Iowa, if she won any there and Pete shouldn't have any after NH, though that can change of course. I would imagine they pledge to Biden.

 

[Tukarrs]

What happens to peoples delegates if they drop out before convention?

lets sayPete Buttigieg and Amy drop out after super Tuesday, where do there delegates go

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The delegate can vote for whoever they want.

Generally, they just hang around until the convention, where their candidate asks them to vote a certain way.

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The delegate is under no obligation to listen to the candidate's preferred choice.

 

[Ogodei]

I don't think your wrong about this. Though I'm sure the Hutu extremists would have wanted to hold onto Rwanda, they probably calculated that they could do the same as the RPF and regain strength in the Congo, part of what led to the Congo Wars. One reason why "part of a UN coalition" is lacking, is the fact as a superpower, the U.S ability and capacity for mustering influence and weight internationally means if the U.S does not take action, other countries don't have the ability to do so. Most of the time, when people support isolationist policies, that includes no longer agitating for UN coalitions, but that not realize, as the world superpower, our lack of effort is a stance.

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We have to be cautious about this way of thinking too, though. The problem with framing foreign policy in terms of "stability" is that it goes right back to imperialism as you work your way through a twisted Game Theory and then you're back in Vietnam, or have another World War I. Any sort of preventive war should be first-order, like if there's a situation where a country is clearly mobilizing for aggressive war or clearly preparing for genocidal actions (a la Yugoslavia in 1999).

The only driving forces should be a firm international response against interstate aggression, and a decisive response for humanitarian crises.

 

[Tamanon]

The delegate can vote for whoever they want.

The delegate is under no obligation to listen to the candidate's preferred choice.

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I never said they were. I just said that the candidate will ask them to.

 

[Blue Skies]

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Biden getting states we need in the general. that's good.

 

[Steel]

I get that voters on a whole are less ideological, but Sanders voters in particular care pretty deeply about those differences.

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The very online supporters, yeah. The average real life Sander's supporter? No.

Authenticity and trust certainly move the needle with a general electorate as well.

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I agree that perception of authenticity and trust are absolutely vital for a politician.

We can agree to disagree of course, but in my view the differences in healthcare, taxation aand others aren't negligible and cannot simply be handwaved when comparing a how transformative a campaigns platform is candidates, nor can trust be dismissed when evaluating whether voters believe a candidate will actually push to implement it.

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I never said they were negligible difference, I'm disagreeing with the assertion that they're moderate in comparison as, for example on healthcare, they're basically a single step away from one another and it's more likely than not a healthcare plan the Bernie passes will end up being a public option due to Congressional make up.

I don't dismiss the perception of trust as a way that voters determine who to vote for at all, either. I don't agree that that's a good metric, as anyone running in a democratic race's goal is to get you to trust them and believe they are authentic.

What happens to peoples delegates if they drop out before convention?

lets sayPete Buttigieg and Amy drop out after super Tuesday, where do there delegates go

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I think they still vote for the person that drops out in the first round. If the first round of delegate votes doesn't produce a clear winner then they're free. Which, contested convention.

 

[Tukarrs]

I never said they were. I just said that the candidate will ask them to.

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I just wanted to provide additional context. Never meant to say you said something. Sorry.

 

[Tamanon]

Sanders supporters aren't some mythical "We're the only ones that follow our candidate because he has the best policies" folks.

Otherwise, Biden wouldn't be the #2 for many of them. There's true believers for each candidate.

 

[Arm Van Dam]

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Indiana is a real funky one on this map

 

[Ogodei]

• 3feb 41 Iowa caucuses
• 11feb 24 New Hampshire primary
• 22feb 36 Nevada caucuses
• 29feb 54 South Carolina primary
• 3mar (Super Tuesday)
  • 52 Alabama primary
  • 6 American Samoa caucuses
  • 31 Arkansas primary
  • 415 California primary
  • 67 Colorado primary
  • 24 Maine primary
  • 91 Massachusetts primary
  • 75 Minnesota primary
  • 110 North Carolina primary
  • 37 Oklahoma primary
  • 64 Tennessee primary
  • 228 Texas primary
  • 29 Utah primary
  • 16 Vermont primary
  • 99 Virginia primary

I know IOWA is important for momentum, but look at these delegate counts. Who takes Cali/Texas/North Carolina/Minnesota?

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Without getting into the weeds of who gets what portion of delegates, I think:

Iowa - near-tie Warren win (I think this will surprise us)
NH - Sanders
NV - near-tie Biden win
SC - Biden
AL - Biden
AR - Biden
CA - Biden
CO - Sanders
ME - Sanders
MA - Warren
MN - Biden
NC - Biden
OK - Warren
TN - Biden
TX - Biden
UT - Biden
VT - Sanders
VA - Biden

I think it's down to Biden and Bernie after Super Tuesday.

 

[kess]

Gotta wonder if the Democratic field hadn't cleared the table for Hillary in 2016, that Sanders would have been stapled by someone like Klobuchar. Instead, his support base consolidated, and was emboldened by her loss.

I think it's remarkable that no one has really laid into him thus far in any meaningful way at the debates. Biden is too congenial towards fellow senators, and everybody else is distracted by the awfulness of Buttigieg.

 

[Huncho_Houdini]

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Seeing that Warren curve breaks my damn heart. She was so close...how M4A had such a major effect still boggles my mind a bit.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

It hurts how true this surely is haha

Spoiler

Funny thing is that we see how these Ukraine goodfellas ginned Trump up about the Ambassador. But somewhere there's probably a tape of some lobbyist getting him worked up about the decline of American dishwashers.

 

[CrabDust]

Biden getting states we need in the general. that's good.

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Yep, and ultimately that's all that matters - who can win enough battleground states to hit 270. The rest is already decided.

 

[daschysta]

Seeing that Warren curve breaks my damn heart. She was so close...how M4A had such a major effect still boggles my mind a bit.

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I dont think it was M4A itself so much as being evasive about her answer on taxes. It ate at the brand she made for herself. I also think promising bo middle class taxes would rise boxed herself in.

 

[Wilsongt]

Gotta wonder if the Democratic field hadn't cleared the table for Hillary in 2016, that Sanders would have been stapled by someone like Klobuchar. Instead, his support base consolidated, and was emboldened by her loss.

I think it's remarkable that no one has really laid into him thus far in any meaningful way at the debates. Biden is too congenial towards fellow senators, and everybody else is distracted by the awfulness of Buttigieg.

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Hillary treated Sanders with kid's gloves. Now when anything comes out that takes a little bit of shine off of Bernie that he might not be perfect, his supporters get highly defensive.

 

[Kaitos]

Biden getting states we need in the general. that's good.

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Yes that definitely helped Hillary carry Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Iowa, and Ohio.

 

[Deleted member 28564]

I'm a little surprised that Steyer is doing so poorly, given that he made it to the last debate. He seems like a nice person, even if he isn't really the candidate anyone (okay, okay. 2%) is particularly excited for. And Yang is doing a bit better than I gave him credit for. I didn't think he'd have 4% support by now. I sort of joked that he'd be at around 2% by now. According to the RCP tracker posted above. Maybe the support tracker looks different elsewhere.

And, hey, Delaney and co are still in the race! Mesmerising.

 

[SatelliteOfLove]

The worst part is this is an audio of a bunch of insanely powerful people talking about how to manipulate trade for their own benefit.

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This is late, but I've been seeing those takes about exactly sort of thing and he'd get kickbacks to keep him happy.

ie, the reason they're sliming Biden for this very same issue.

Indeed. In the case of China, its not simply the Zero Sum I'm worried about, but the notion that we have a obligation to maintaining international law, and one of the tenets of it as you know (more than me likely) is the concept of sovereign states and unchanged borders, and maybe its just the anti-China in me, but I have no wish to abandon or risk another China-Vietnam War, or a South China Sea sovereignty fight that goes hot, and part of it is the undue balance of power between China and the SE Asian states, and I hate the little guy getting fucked over. (though i know we fuck over plenty of little people)

And which circles back to opening the door to China...yeah, nah Xinjiang, Tibet, HK and Taiwan...nope.

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That's what's terrifying me. All the little-l liberal and Leftist values and rule of law between nations means bunk when a pre-UN Great Powers system of might making right exists. Hell, it's hard to get any traction on defending one's own country *cough*electionattacks*cough* when there's no expectation for better behavior and weak mechanisms for enforcing it.

And all this came after increasing muzzling of US agency dirty business after the 60s too. Its like, hitting that sweet spot of Good Cop is extremely difficult.

Florida Man stuck at 41-42% against everyone.

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It'll be a relief to see this translate in 10 months to 300+ EVs and the Senate. Every % a buffer for wafflers.

 

[Blue Skies]

Yes that definitely helped Hillary carry Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Iowa, and Ohio.

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Hillary was a hated figure. Biden is only disliked because he's not progressive enough. Which isn't a big deal in those states.

I think it's ridiculous to think the Biden would perform worse than Hillary.

yes, Bernie/Warren have the better ideas, but some parts of this country just aren't ready yet. Democracy sucks sometimes

 

[daschysta]

Hillary was a hated figure. Biden is only disliked because he's not progressive enough. Which isn't a big deal in those states.

I think it's ridiculous to think the Biden would perform worse than Hillary.

yes, Bernie/Warren have the better ideas, but some parts of this country just aren't ready yet. Democracy sucks sometimes

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I mostly worry that Biden doesn't seem mentally sharp this last year. Hillary was still quick as a whip. We also have to make sure the convention isn't too divisive if he wins, and that is a responsibility if BOTH sides.

 

[Seeya]

Hilary stays lying. Still wish she was President.

Biden getting states we need in the general. that's good.

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The map will look nothing like this in 2 weeks

 

[eebster]

Generally, they just hang around until the convention, where their candidate asks them to vote a certain way.

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Isn't that like super undemocratic? Who says people who voted for Buttigieg would have voted for whoever his candidate of choice is