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US PoliEra 2020 |OT 1| THE ANTI BENGHAZI (Read Staff Post)
- Thread starter TheHunter
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I thought this tweet thread was interesting as regards Warren:
Basically, Warren's candidacy was meant by some to help square the circle — for people who said they liked leftist policies but thought Bernie was bad on social issues, Warren could do both. (I think this telling underrates the elite personal animus against Bernie a bit, but Warren solves both.) Whether you personally think Bernie is bad on social issues or not, there's no denying a lot of people think it.
In this model, Warren doesn't need to win all of Bernie's supporters. She just needs to win some of them while also consolidating the Clinton voters who cared about both economic and social justice. And she did win those Clinton voters, if Poliera's love affair is any indication. The problem was that she failed to pull together elite support or moderate Dems, because it turned out it wasn't about Bernie being untrustworthy on race — they really just don't want the policies. Warren couldn't overcome that.
Basically, Warren's candidacy was meant by some to help square the circle — for people who said they liked leftist policies but thought Bernie was bad on social issues, Warren could do both. (I think this telling underrates the elite personal animus against Bernie a bit, but Warren solves both.) Whether you personally think Bernie is bad on social issues or not, there's no denying a lot of people think it.
In this model, Warren doesn't need to win all of Bernie's supporters. She just needs to win some of them while also consolidating the Clinton voters who cared about both economic and social justice. And she did win those Clinton voters, if Poliera's love affair is any indication. The problem was that she failed to pull together elite support or moderate Dems, because it turned out it wasn't about Bernie being untrustworthy on race — they really just don't want the policies. Warren couldn't overcome that.
Kaitos could just PM willing members of PoliERA, nobody else needs to know he's running heh
Yeah I don't want to discount the rampant sexism against Warren, but it doesn't explain everything neatly. Her campaign was always the hard mode setting. The constitutional horror that is the Republican party has been on full blast over the last few months, and voters are being driven to madness by their projected electability calculus.
For most voters, picking who you like most is a luxury you might not feel you can afford. That's why Bernie stans are special, they just dgaf about electability because they know if they get their guy they can extort the rest of the party just like Trump did for the GOP in 2016.
For most voters, picking who you like most is a luxury you might not feel you can afford. That's why Bernie stans are special, they just dgaf about electability because they know if they get their guy they can extort the rest of the party just like Trump did for the GOP in 2016.
I wouldn't bet on that!!!!!
wait actually lol both of my accounts on G*F only have like 2 days of posts on them. I guess their archiving got fucked up.
Honestly, the guy's twitter thread put a loooottt more thought into the who's and why's of Warren's drop than the people who just drifted away from her did. Warren's issue is that her support was soft and tuned out, not sold but not against, sorta just picking her to pick someone. There were polls on how loyal her support base was and she was 20 points behind Sanders/Biden in that regard, so a blow up was fully possible. All that was needed was a new flavor of the week to get on the radar, Buttigieg spent his money, he got his share. Bloomberg then lapped up at Buttigieg and here we are.
Her boost was mostly from people dropping out and kinda settling on her without thinking much about it, which was her strength. If people kept dropping out, if Buttigieg, for example, had dropped out, she would have had a real shot, but the opposite happened, torpedoing her.
I don't actually buy that it had much to do with her explaining M4A. That's the always online talk. Voter drift is usually a lot more basic than that.
lol how are these big numbers going to play in the GE alongside "taking away people's healthcare".
People want a fixed health care system more than they care about the price tag. That's the gamble at least. I think it's a good gamble.
That is absolute bullshit if I'm being honest. People want healthcare to get magically better without getting more expensive and without anything changing on their end. Look how the ACA killed Obama. For a lot of people there was almost no visible chance and they still turned on him.
I'd argue that the ACA was far too complicated to pitch to regular people. The pros and cons got simplified to "No more pre-existing conditions" vs "Everyone not on it has to pay a fee".
The bigger problem was that because it wasn't an easy to understand plan, the GOP were able to lie about it and make up crazy shit. It also didn't help that the ACA didn't fix a lot of the problems that regular people have with the health care system like prescription prices.
Now I'm not saying that M4A is going to be free from GOP bullshit, but the plan is easy enough to pitch people on that they'll have a MUCH tougher time dragging it. This is pretty apparent when you compare people's thoughts on Biden's plan vs Bernie's plan. We'll have to see how the GOP handles a plan where the elevator pitch is "Everyone gets healthcare, it's cheaper, and it's way less complicated."
It'll all come down to who wins the information battle. The GOP and the Health Insurance industry will come out swinging, it'll be up to Sanders and the movement of activists to make the case. Luckily, I think M4A has the advantage due to how completely fucked the health care system is and how simple the advantages of M4A are. We'll have to see how it shakes out, but I have hope. This shit needs to happen.Not sure.
That thread pigeon linked to is really fantastic, but I think missed the mark a little bit in that moderates/Clinton primary voters in 2016 like Warren. A lot. They were never were sold in her ability to beat Trump, and that was all that mattered because that issue is so existential. They then go into a sorting exercise between "Biden is great" and "Biden is a wreck" options (AmyK, Pete).
If Pete wasn't around, then it would be AmyK that Clinton supporters would have left Warren for in Iowa. Those Clinton supporters still love Warren, but not as a candidate in this election. Just as someone that stands for an idea that a place like Elizabeth Warren's America could exist. An ideal you can't have because you can't see a world where the margin play in swing states is favorable to her.
It's super fucked up. But I believe it because it's the tortured calculus I've had to wrestle with myself as an older moderate white Clintonite (2008, then 2016) Democrat.
If Pete wasn't around, then it would be AmyK that Clinton supporters would have left Warren for in Iowa. Those Clinton supporters still love Warren, but not as a candidate in this election. Just as someone that stands for an idea that a place like Elizabeth Warren's America could exist. An ideal you can't have because you can't see a world where the margin play in swing states is favorable to her.
It's super fucked up. But I believe it because it's the tortured calculus I've had to wrestle with myself as an older moderate white Clintonite (2008, then 2016) Democrat.
It's super easy to drag Medicare for All: Bernie Sanders wants to take away your healthcare benefits and raise your taxes.
That message isn't even winning a majority of the Primary electorate; so it will be interesting if and when the negative message is deployed by the GOPs spin machine.
And before the primary polling showed both these arguments were very effective!
The question is really what happens when and if the entire Democratic Party starts supporting the idea instead of fighting it.
The entire Democratic party isn't going to unite behind it though lol. Randos running in purple seats are gonna run the f away from it.
Just wait for the first few studies that come out and show how many hospitals/clinics will have to close when they only get medicare rates. It's why Warren had the right idea of actually walking through the plan and any pitfalls.
Either way, it's meaningless, again. Medicare for All won't even pass a Dem senate.
Either way, it's meaningless, again. Medicare for All won't even pass a Dem senate.
Thankfully(?) the first half of that would never get through a senate with anything less than like 70 D senators. I'm admittedly a jerk on primate insurance. I freaking love the caddilac plan I accidentally found myself with, but that's also given me an appreciation that there's nooooo way the system could cope with 1) an influx of new patients at is already operates to maximize profits and barely keeps up, and 2) keep up the same level of care just with just government medicare cash. Oh, and there's the whole matter of a gagillion jobs the insurance companies offer being wiped out and the additional strain of government services that are stretched to the limit as it is.
If you phased it in over a decade+ maybe, but god it'd be hard. Promoting it is easy. Doing it? Yikes. And I'm ignoring all spending concerns. Just taxing the rich won't cover everything.
I'm voting for whoever is most likely to beat Trump. Only question is who (and I have a sneaking suspicion it isn't Bernie).
Better things are possible doesn't actually mean this exact thing you want is possible immediately and also magic is not real and neither is Santa sorry.
I've got an extremely loud and obnoxious suspicion that Biden will get absolutely creamed by Trump and the only decent electable choice is Bernie with a slight *maybe* for Bloomberg.
Just wanted to say, before Biden jumped in I thought that Pete would make it to the top 2. Now I'm not so sure, but I guess we'll see how Iowa goes.
You should run for a public office. How would anyone be able to identify you on a message board?
Not with that attitude it's not. We better fucking be able to get M4A done because stoping climate apocalypse is gonna be WAY harder. We're gonna need some practice.
Better things are possible, like a public option and a transition period that won't immediately boot people off their existing health insurance.
Really all Bernie needs to do is lie to the public that they can keep the insurance they like. It's so easy! People don't want truth.
I hope a lurch left on immigration enforcement can prepare people for the climate migrants coming in the future. Especially when the first groups will likely be Black Caribbean people that the US has historically wronged.
Who am I kidding? We'll probably elect a fascist again.
Who am I kidding? We'll probably elect a fascist again.
What a bizarre supposition.
The complexities of transitioning an entire health care system immediately doesn't really have any bearing on emissions reduction policy...
Getting ourselves off of fossil fuels by 2030 and passing the GND is going to be a significantly harder set of challenges than M4A imo. Maybe it's not easy to compare, but it's gonna be crazy difficult. There's a lot more industries that we'd be fucking over with that one, not to mention the global aspect of it.
Yeah, I'm sure all those nno-college educated white men will stay with Bernie, after he openly has to actually campaign on all the things that group would hate that he currently just doesn't mention when talking to them..
Plus, I don't tihnk Ron DeSantis is going to be getting us off fossil fuels after he and Nikki Haley win 350 EV's in 2024 as Bernie hangs around 39% approval after trying to primary half the Democratic caucus and nearly 400 EV's in 2028 w/ only 42% of the vote when the DSA runs a third party campaign with AOC.
I mean, it has a far more likely to happen than Bernie winning the general, and magically creating a new movement that will cause Democratic Senator's to vote for is wish list of policies, and for it to receive zero blow back in the mid-terms. Chris Coons and John Hicklenlooper is going to look at whatever Bernie wants, and laugh for the next six years in their safe Senate seats.
If Bernie Sanders was truly this magical organizer and leader of people, then maybe he would've organized enough in Vermont that Republican's still can't regularly win statewide elections.
Well if you guys are supporting it I need to call my senator too lol. Had no idea about the bill or vote and my senator didn't vote.
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I mean, you're not entirely wrong. This is hypothetical territory and the US has an abysmal protest and activist culture. However, if we were going to reboot American activism, Bernie Sanders is the guy to light the flame on it. The advantage here is that Bernie's campaign is building a large scale grassroots movement across the country that can be repurposed into a structure for activism.
This may still count as fanfiction, but it's a lot more possible than you give it credit for. But tbh, the rational side of my brain isn't fully on board either. The other side of my brain really doesn't give a fuck because we need shit to get done right fucking now. I don't care if I'm the only idiot standing outside the Governor's mansion I'll still chant dumb shit until we got a movement.
"Better the devil you know than the devil you don't."
I think much of the M4A hurdles boil down to this for a lot of people. Maybe the current devil isn't bad enough, I don't know, but I certainly can understand the view many people seem to have that the government isn't necessarily gonna do a better job. It's probably why I can see how maybe a decent transition period or a very robust public option is going to be the way we get there.
I think much of the M4A hurdles boil down to this for a lot of people. Maybe the current devil isn't bad enough, I don't know, but I certainly can understand the view many people seem to have that the government isn't necessarily gonna do a better job. It's probably why I can see how maybe a decent transition period or a very robust public option is going to be the way we get there.
Well I certainly wasn't one of those weird Biden with a Dem Senate people. Gross. I can't believe that was an option that people actually picked.
Surely you're in this thread enough to know that Sanders sitting in the Oval with a GOP Senate would literally just amount to that and nothing else.
And you'd take that over a Biden Presidency with full legislative control to pass a public option? O.o Not to mention judicial appointments.
I'll take my chances with a Sanders' lead executive branch and the changes he could make with all of the agencies and executive orders until he could secure a majority in 2022.
Certainly better than having a racist old senile republican in office. Biden that is, not Trump.
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