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US PoliEra 2020 |OT 2| Dershowitz says "Quid Pro Quo on the Go?" [See Staff Post]
- Thread starter TheHunter
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Well, we saw how Iowa polling panned out for Biden when he was 2nd!
Nevada!
Political Polls on Twitter
“#Navada @AARP/@reviewjournal Poll (2/11-13): Sanders 25 Biden 18% Warren 13% Steyer 11% Buttigieg 10% Klobuchar 10%”twitter.com
If Biden's not second in NV, who is? Kaitos
That's closer than I expected to be honest.
Nevada!
Political Polls on Twitter
“#Navada @AARP/@reviewjournal Poll (2/11-13): Sanders 25 Biden 18% Warren 13% Steyer 11% Buttigieg 10% Klobuchar 10%”
If Biden's not second in NV, who is? Kaitos
Assuming this poll holds weight, that's a pretty good result for Bernie though a bit closer than I thought
Also 11% for Steyer and Amy tied with Pete
Bloomberg's Youngstown campaign office defaced less than a day after opening
Signs at the building readwww.wfmj.com
Signs left in front of the office and a small bit of tape wrapped around the building.
"Vandalism"
If no one has a majority of the votes going into the convention, does the nominee have to be one of the individuals on the primary ballot. Just speculating on the entire unlikely event that people would be able to agree to a "unity" candidate that isn't currently on the ballot.
Contested conventions are always the meme option every year.
This is true, caucuses are really tough to poll.
If we take the poll as accurate though, pete, amy, steyer, and warren all being under the viability threshold (is it 15?) Helps Biden a lot.
Even if the poll holds weight, second alignment with a ton of people being under 15 is gonna be something totally different.
There's no evidence of what you claim, that racially-profiled stops without PC led to a 50% drop in homicides in Philly. Crime stats don't work like that! You aren't going to show direct causation.
And what you are saying, a softshoe defense of racial profiling, is disgusting and unacceptable. Some voters may be ok with racial profiling, even some POC. I personally am not, as someone who has been stopped on multiple occasions when I was younger without probably cause.
Posted an article about that that explicitly stated this yesterday. I also had the benefit of living in Philadelphia during the Nutter administration when this debate took place. Ad nauseum.
You are however continuing to miss the point. The point is not whether stop and frisk is right, because it isn't. The point isn't whether its defensible, because it isn't. You aren't the only person that's been unfairly stopped by police in this thread, let alone overall.
The point- and i need you to pay attention- is whether or not voters care.
Both Bloomberg and Nutter were lit up by activists and the media over it. Nutter was easily reelected and remains the most popular philly official since Rendell. Bloomberg cruised to reelection twice.
Voters simply did not care, and these were the people directly impacted by it. I expect suburban and rural voters to care far, far less. If you're looking to sink Bloomberg, stop and frisk won't be the issue. It's a waste of time to hit him on it.
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It's 15 by caucus site, so even if someone is 10 statewide they'd still keep some sites.
Nevada!
Political Polls on Twitter
“#Navada @AARP/@reviewjournal Poll (2/11-13): Sanders 25 Biden 18% Warren 13% Steyer 11% Buttigieg 10% Klobuchar 10%”
If Biden's not second in NV, who is? Kaitos
Navada.
I was actually thinking (based upon a Mike Duncan's tweet that I was am shamefully stealing) of another former presidential nominee: Al Gore!
Nevada!
Political Polls on Twitter
“#Navada @AARP/@reviewjournal Poll (2/11-13): Sanders 25 Biden 18% Warren 13% Steyer 11% Buttigieg 10% Klobuchar 10%”
If Biden's not second in NV, who is? Kaitos
1/3 of the poll was done pre-NH
REV UP THOSE EMAIL SERVER STORIES CAUSE I AM SURE HUNGRY FOR ONE /s
It would be interesting to see if she would have made it to Iowa or if she would have dropped out like Kamala or Hickenlooper.
The second round of voting at the convention starts.
Music starts playing through the speakers, softly at first, a catchy pop tune but you can't quite make out lyrics. Then you hear it "this is my fight song......."
OMG IS THAT HILLARY CLINTON'S MUSIC
https://youtu.be/N5mxCv-4dF0?t=72
Music starts playing through the speakers, softly at first, a catchy pop tune but you can't quite make out lyrics. Then you hear it "this is my fight song......."
OMG IS THAT HILLARY CLINTON'S MUSIC
https://youtu.be/N5mxCv-4dF0?t=72
Pete being second means his campaign can say they're building a more diverse coalition which is just awful news for Biden.
I am sure that Trump will be prudent and not tweet or say anything at all about this decision.
Can we relitigate the 2000 Election at least. Because Gore would have had us living in a carbon-free paradise after his fifth term as president.
If a person is under 15% in a caucus site, their voters get to choose someone else. Is what the poster means.
My nightmare is bernie winning the first allignment by 8 points only to lose the final allingment
Lol - trying to dig up the deep trauma in us older members, I see.
Nevada!
Political Polls on Twitter
“#Navada @AARP/@reviewjournal Poll (2/11-13): Sanders 25 Biden 18% Warren 13% Steyer 11% Buttigieg 10% Klobuchar 10%”
Hopefully Sanders can pull out the win. At this point I just want to avoid a contested convention and Bernie seems like the candidate most likely to avoid that fate.
Some, yes. But more often than not they'll end up realigning.
In Iowa and New Hampshire we saw the Biden and Warren vote migrate to Pete/Amy, with very little crossover to Sanders.
Biden polling below the threshold and having voters split between Biden/Warren/Amy/Pete/Steyer is the best result for Sanders, because it keeps the moderate vote split without a clear leader.
A Biden that ends up viable in most places (as he probably will at 18%) on the other hand is going to overwhelmingly benefit.
Caucus polling is a mess tho. Good odds this poll isnt accurate.
Me a week before the bloomberg tape: "Man, in so bummed about warren, guess ill just reluctantly vote for sanders"
Me now: "LETS GO BERNIE LETS GO *clap clap*
Me now: "LETS GO BERNIE LETS GO *clap clap*
True, but in IA Pete was only able to make up like 2% from 1st to 2nd allignment.
The point you are making boils down to "well, voters in NYC and Philly didn't care enough to stop the reelection of mayors who supported stop-and-frisk". And then you are trying to extend that to voters everywhere across the US. It's a leap, which you haven't adequately supported, and it's a leap which has you offering sideways justifications of racial profiling as "saving lives", which even if it's true (and that hasn't been demonstrated) is entirely unacceptable here.
Criminal justice reform has become a major bipartisan issue since 2015. That said, I don't claim to know with certainty how voters will react. I do know that I am personally uncomfortable with racial profiling in policing, and I'm not alone in that. We saw yesterday that Trump already slapped Bloomberg in the mouth with his racist policies. I believe that this is an effective line of attack because Bloomberg actually supports racist policy. I believe that enough Democrats and left-leaning independents care about racism that, like we saw with Hillary Clinton, it may have a chilling effect on 2020 turnout should Bloomberg be the nominee. Let alone some of his other issues, like sexism and transphobia, and his very recent support of Republicans in the Senate.
I will say, again, that I never expected to hear a defense of racial profiling on ResetEra. I don't want to derail the thread on this further, though.
It would kinda mean that Bernie's only path to victory is flavor of the week not-Bernie candidates.
Which would also mean contested convention. Only plus-side is that Biden finally getting a win might crush Bloomberg so a contested convention would not be between Bernie and Bloomer.
There were more people viable in IA. And, even then, that almost had Pete overtaking Bernie in the popular.
While I was too young for 2000, 04 was the first election I paid attention to and I think it was important for setting my expectations for the American electorate.
You can tell just how many people never paid attention to politics until 2008, boarded the Obama hype train, didn't give a shit about the midterm elections and just assumed liberals always win.
Yeah let him get a distant second and give his campaign some hope
Voters don't live in the neat ideological lanes that pundits believe define this race. Warren supporters drift to Pete and Klob. Biden supporters drift to Bernie. And a lot of these decisions are made at the last minute, without much thought.
It's mathematically true that Biden's 18 + Pete's 10 + Klob's 10 in that poll adds up to a number bigger than Bernie's 25. But that doesn't mean that 48% share of voters will all coalesce around a single not-Bernie candidate on the final alignment.
It's mathematically true that Biden's 18 + Pete's 10 + Klob's 10 in that poll adds up to a number bigger than Bernie's 25. But that doesn't mean that 48% share of voters will all coalesce around a single not-Bernie candidate on the final alignment.
I'm more looking at Iowa's second choice drift. In Iowa Pete had Warren, Klob, Biden, and otherwise votes going mostly or almost equally to him. Bernie was doing terrible in second choice. Of course, Nevada's demos are different, but still.
If a few of them are between 10%-15% it's very possible for some of their supporters to come together and make another candidate viable. And it's not like Bernie isn't going to get some 2nd allignment votes, so a 7 point lead to start with would be a nice cushion.
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