US PoliEra 2020 |OT 2| Dershowitz says "Quid Pro Quo on the Go?" [See Staff Post]

Kusagari

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,664
Bernie's base is a chunk of the party at this point that the Dems simply cannot win without and if he enters the election with the most delegates/votes and is denied then...good luck to the Democratic Party.
 

Basileus777

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,235
New Jersey
Bernie's base is a chunk of the party at this point that the Dems simply cannot win without and if he enters the election with the most delegates/votes and is denied then...good luck to the Democratic Party.
It wouldn't even just be Bernie's base. I'm trying to imagine minority turnout after Bloomberg gets blasted for months on end for being even more racist than Trump.
 

DrROBschiz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,758
There is no reason not to vote for Bernie if he is the nominee

Its ridiculous. The whole "too far left" and socialism scare tactics are all horseshit

Hes been in public service for decades and knows how to 2ork with people and listen to reason. He isn't trump and anything people are scared about from a policy perspective can build a coalition to check him in midterms

I just dont get the fervor here
 

Manmademan

Member
Aug 6, 2018
6,707
Sanders getting a plurality of delegates going into a contested convention and not getting the nomination would ensure a massive shitfest.
Not really. The party could coalesce around a single candidate and move to declare a nominee by acclamation without a vote. If Sanders has 30% of the vote or less by the convention (which is likely, especially if he doesn't lead) there's no way to stop it.
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
11,081
There is no reason not to vote for Bernie if he is the nominee

Its ridiculous. The whole "too far left" and socialism scare tactics are all horseshit

Hes been in public service for decades and knows how to 2ork with people and listen to reason. He isn't trump and anything people are scared about from a policy perspective can build a coalition to check him in midterms

I just dont get the fervor here
If he is the nominee through a contested convention you will see a bunch of people get pissed by the fuckery from the other camps. Contested convention is something we do not want.
 

Iolo

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,903
Britain
To be fair, i agree. I don't think anyone wants a contested convention. The carter/kennedy fight was nasty and no one wants a repeat.

But here is what i DO expect to occur.

Candidates (warren, pete, Amy, steyer) who aren't viable suspend their campaigns, which keeps their delegates from going anywhere.

Those with the money and support to go the distance (bloomberg, biden maybe, sanders) continue to the convention. One of the two (biden or bloomberg, whichever leads) becomes the party preference. The other suspends.

The suspended candidates in turn release their delegates, with the caveat that (party favorite) be nominated by acclamation as Clinton did for Obama in 08. Biden and/or Bloomberg follow suit.

Party pick gets nominated with 70% of delegates by acclamation, contested convention is avoided, no superdelegates involved. Sanders ends up without a leg to stand on.
Like I said, suicide. Cutting out the top vote getter would permanently fracture the party, whoever that person is.

Here’s what would actually happen: either 1) the person with a plurality of delegates allies with enough people to gain the majority, or 2) the person with a plurality accepts some sort of deal which does not involve the nomination, though it’s hard to see what.

“Cutting out” the person with the most votes is electoral suicide and would be the end of the party. There can be no unity after such a move. Fortunately, Democratic delegates have shown no inclination they will follow this insane course of action, as they want to win.
 

fuchsdh

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,859
There is no reason not to vote for Bernie if he is the nominee

Its ridiculous. The whole "too far left" and socialism scare tactics are all horseshit

Hes been in public service for decades and knows how to 2ork with people and listen to reason. He isn't trump and anything people are scared about from a policy perspective can build a coalition to check him in midterms

I just dont get the fervor here
Not to mention his far-left tendencies can be effectively moderated by the legislature.

I’d prefer someone not as far left,’but you have to be a willful idiot at this point to think that a) the far right isn’t far more dangerous in this country and b) the US is going to suddenly turn socialist.
 

fragamemnon

Member
Nov 30, 2017
413
I don't see how a contested convention doesn't give Trump a good chance of a win no matter the layout.
I don't think a convention where Bernie wrapped up 40% of the vote in later contests is all that controversial if there are two other candidates running in the 25%/25% range. You go with Bernie, duh.

If Bernie has a narrow delegate lead and is winning later contests by 27-26% vs 2 others at 25%/22% and 3 others hanging around in the single digits-yeah THAT is the shitfest scenario. Also pretty unlikely!
 

Psychoward

Member
Nov 7, 2017
24,116
Not really. The party could coalesce around a single candidate and move to declare a nominee by acclamation without a vote. If Sanders has 30% of the vote or less by the convention (which is likely, especially if he doesn't lead) there's no way to stop it.
I'm saying it would ensure a massive shitfest come election day.

It would be a really, really, really bad idea to not give the nomination to whoever has the most delegates.
 

Manmademan

Member
Aug 6, 2018
6,707
Like I said, suicide. Cutting out the top vote getter would permanently fracture the party, whoever that person is.

Here’s what would actually happen: either 1) the person with a plurality of delegates allies with enough people to gain the majority, or 2) the person with a plurality accepts some sort of deal which does not involve the nomination, though it’s hard to see what.

“Cutting out” the person with the most votes is electoral suicide and would be the end of the party. There can be no unity after such a move. Fortunately, Democratic delegates have shown no inclination they will follow this insane course of action, as they want to win.
This assumes sanders has the most votes, which isnt a sure thing at all.

Second, it assumes he has a significant lead in votes if a lead exists. If Biden has 32%, Bloomberg has 33%, and Sanders has 35% for instance then theres no clear winner. The plurality is meaningless since 60+% of the field wants a different candidate.

Biden/Bloomberg suspending and backing each other on the other hand swamps Sanders 65-35, and he loses with a clear majority.

And Keep in mind, Sanders fucked himself here since there is plenty of tape with him making the argument that delegates should "vote their concience" and nominate him over Hillary even though she had the delegate lead in 2016.

All the party has to do is play his own words back at him.
 

Dahbomb

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,998
Might as well erase the Democratic party if Bernie gets plurality going into the convention (with a healthy lead over the next few candidates) and then they make Bloomberg the nominee. It doesn't matter if Bloomberg spends all of his 60 billion, he will get embarrassed by Trump anyway with such a fractured party.

More than anything though, you are just taking a massive dump on Democracy and admitting to the world that yeah.... US is a plutocracy.
 

Iolo

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,903
Britain
This assumes sanders has the most votes, which isnt a sure thing at all.

Second, it assumes he has a significant lead in votes if a lead exists. If Biden has 32%, Bloomberg has 33%, and Sanders has 35% for instance then theres no clear winner. The plurality is meaningless since 60+% of the field wants a different candidate.

Biden/Bloomberg suspending and backing each other on the other hand swamps Sanders 65-35, and he loses with a clear majority.
Your entire line of thinking is predicated upon Sanders winning the most votes and then being cut out, so I’m not sure what you’re getting at. If someone else gets the most votes then the same applies to them.

Anyway, I am impressed how you can discount people’s feelings as meaningless. Have you met many humans?
 

Iolo

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,903
Britain
And Keep in mind, Sanders fucked himself here since there is plenty of tape with him making the argument that delegates should "vote their concience" and nominate him over Hillary even though she had the delegate lead in 2016.
And they didn’t. Nor will they this time.

I think you’re just taking contrarian positions to play deval’s advocate.
 

Mekanos

Member
Oct 17, 2018
16,397
Might as well erase the Democratic party if Bernie gets plurality going into the convention (with a healthy lead over the next few candidates) and then they make Bloomberg the nominee. It doesn't matter if Bloomberg spends all of his 60 billion, he will get embarrassed by Trump anyway with such a fractured party.

More than anything though, you are just taking a massive dump on Democracy and admitting to the world that yeah.... US is a plutocracy.
It would certainly continue the trend of 2020 being a bruh moment.

I'm trying to remain optimistic. Praying for a clean win for Bernie in Nevada.
 

PKrockin

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,366
I'm not sure what this tells us, but I would point out that his best two challengers have no chance at the nom, so is this really valuable info?
It seems to be evidence against the idea that Sanders has a hard cap of 25% of Dem voters, that once more candidates drop out all of their support will go to whoever the anti-Bernie candidate is because they hate Bernie or think he's unacceptably progressive or whatever reason.
 

Manmademan

Member
Aug 6, 2018
6,707
Your entire line of thinking is predicated upon Sanders winning the most votes and then being cut out, so I’m not sure what you’re getting at. If someone else gets the most votes then the same applies to them.

Anyway, I am impressed how you can discount people’s feelings as meaningless. Have you met many humans?
The party has made it pretty clear that Sanders is the last person they want winning the nomination. Endorsements are the clearest indicator of this and Sanders is isolated. I expect politics to occur to prevent that because this is politics.

If someone else (bloomberg, biden) has the most votes that scenario doesn't apply, because those two didnt spend the last decade shitting on the DNC and calling democrats corrupt.

You cannot ignore the bad blood sanders has with the rest of the party in a scenario where party insiders (i.e. delegates) decide the winner. Sanders needs to rack up a majority or damned close to it to get himself nominated- but the math isn't there.

The hardcore sanders base isn't going to be happy with any nominee who isn't sanders, regardless of whether he wins or loses the popular vote. The nomination will not revolve around their feelings. It will revolve around which candidate best serves the needs of the country as determined by the party.

This won't be Sanders.
 

Arm Van Dam

Member
Mar 30, 2019
4,208
Illinois
March debate will be in Phoenix two days before Arizona primaries

NEW: The DNC & CHC BOLD announce that the 11th Democratic debate will be in Phoenix, Arizona on Sunday, March 15 and will be co-hosted by CNN and Univision The debate will take place just two days before primaries in Arizona, Florida, Illinois & Ohio
 

Rover

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,761
There is no reason not to vote for Bernie if he is the nominee

Its ridiculous. The whole "too far left" and socialism scare tactics are all horseshit

Hes been in public service for decades and knows how to 2ork with people and listen to reason. He isn't trump and anything people are scared about from a policy perspective can build a coalition to check him in midterms

I just dont get the fervor here
Frankly, with the state of the Senate and the judiciary after Trump, you'd need a far left candidate just to get things back to the middle.
 

less

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,147

PMS341

Member
Oct 29, 2017
4,035

Linkura

Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,605
You gotta be fucking kidding me

Hope Hicks too! So many returning guest stars!

none of them could get another job
 

DrROBschiz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,758

Arm Van Dam

Member
Mar 30, 2019
4,208
Illinois
You gotta be fucking kidding me

Priebus and Spicer will each join the President’s Commission on White House Fellowships, according to a White House announcement Tuesday. As a part of the commission, the pair will interview and recommend to their former boss national finalists for appointments.
They just keep crawling back to him
 

Rover

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,761
You gotta be fucking kidding me

Bannon is probably next.

God, as if we needed deja vu on top of the overall dread.
 

fragamemnon

Member
Nov 30, 2017
413
Priebus and Spicer will each join the President’s Commission on White House Fellowships, according to a White House announcement Tuesday. As a part of the commission, the pair will interview and recommend to their former boss national finalists for appointments.
This is horseshit, it's a way to get paid for working on the campaign. I don't think people realize how pivotal Priebus was in particular for dragging Trump's sorry ass over the finish line.
 

Poodlestrike

It's salt.
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
6,483
This assumes sanders has the most votes, which isnt a sure thing at all.

Second, it assumes he has a significant lead in votes if a lead exists. If Biden has 32%, Bloomberg has 33%, and Sanders has 35% for instance then theres no clear winner. The plurality is meaningless since 60+% of the field wants a different candidate.

Biden/Bloomberg suspending and backing each other on the other hand swamps Sanders 65-35, and he loses with a clear majority.

And Keep in mind, Sanders fucked himself here since there is plenty of tape with him making the argument that delegates should "vote their concience" and nominate him over Hillary even though she had the delegate lead in 2016.

All the party has to do is play his own words back at him.
This is a line of thinking that makes a lot of assumptions about the primary process that haven't been tested since the 70s.

The old model - the "smoke filled rooms" stuff - that was about picking the candidate with the broadest appeal to the party. They didn't always get it, but that was the point. But as primaries became more and more important, that's fallen away to a great extent. Now it's much more like a general election with whoever gets the most votes taking the whole thing. The res still some concessions arelound the edges, mind. I wouldn't expect Bernie to get carte blanche to set the party platform and you'll likely see a moderate-pleasing VP (even if it's just kn terms of personality), but if he goes jnto this with more votes than anybody else the pressure to find some way to put him at the top of the ticket will be tremendous.
 

MMBosstones86

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,923
You gotta be fucking kidding me

my god we just getting the whole fucking band together.
 

Wilsongt

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,052
Oct 25, 2017
3,043

Manmademan

Member
Aug 6, 2018
6,707
This is a line of thinking that makes a lot of assumptions about the primary process that haven't been tested since the 70s.

The old model - the "smoke filled rooms" stuff - that was about picking the candidate with the broadest appeal to the party. They didn't always get it, but that was the point. But as primaries became more and more important, that's fallen away to a great extent. Now it's much more like a general election with whoever gets the most votes taking the whole thing. The res still some concessions arelound the edges, mind. I wouldn't expect Bernie to get carte blanche to set the party platform and you'll likely see a moderate-pleasing VP (even if it's just kn terms of personality), but if he goes jnto this with more votes than anybody else the pressure to find some way to put him at the top of the ticket will be tremendous.
It hasn't been tested since the 70s because nobody wants a contested convention. Its damaging and toxic to the party.

The best way to avoid this is to have a candidate voted in on the first round- and the party can (and probably should) do this by settling on an establishment candidate beforehand. This candidate won't be Sanders for the reasons stated previously, and a slim lead in the popular vote won't be enough of an argument to hand the nomination to him. Sanders himself made that argument in 2016. It should be who is best suited to win in the General.

If it goes to "superdelegates" in the second round that makes things a whole lot worse.

Clearly we disagree, so its best to move on and we'll see how things shake out at the convention.