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Oct 25, 2017
13,126
Looks like there's a new SC poll with Biden only +8 ahead of Bernie.

Biden is -9 since their last one and Bernie is +6.
surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com

ECU Center for Survey Research

South Carolina Democratic Primary: Biden's Lead Shrinks. Sanders Closing in. Steyer in Third.
African Americans:
Joe Biden 36%
Bernie Sanders 20%
Tom Steyer 17%,

followed by Elizabeth Warren (7%), Michael Bloomberg (5%), Pete Buttigieg (4%), Tulsi Gabbard (1%), and Amy Klobuchar (1%).
 

Pooh

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,849
The Hundred Acre Wood
Pretty high awareness from a Bush-appointed judge in that McCabe case: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/...rmer-fbi-deputy-director-andrew-mccabe-115251

"The public is listening to what's going on, and I don't think people like the fact that you got somebody at the top basically trying to dictate whether somebody should be prosecuted ... I just think it's a banana republic when we go down that road," Walton told government lawyers behind closed doors in September. "I think there are a lot of people on the outside who perceive that there is undo inappropriate pressure being brought to bear ... It's just, it's very disturbing that we're in the mess that we're in in that regard.

"I just think the integrity of the process is being unduly undermined by inappropriate comments and actions on the part of people at the top of our government," added Walton, an appointee of President George W. Bush. "I think it's very unfortunate. And I think as a government and as a society we're going to pay a price at some point for this."
 

Deleted member 31817

Nov 7, 2017
30,876
Like I get it, Bernie is divisive and isn't the best team player but the fact that people look at Bloomberg as being the friendlier candidate to dems is sad.

Screenshot_20200214-152934_Instagram.jpg
 
Oct 25, 2017
13,126
Biden leads with AA 55+ 49% while Steyer has 9%, Bloomberg has 8%, and Bernie has 7%
Bernie leads with AA 18-54 29% while Biden has 26%
Pretty stupid to include Bloomberg when he's not on the ballot and write ins aren't allowed. kinda invalidates the poll since that could be Biden or anybody else's support.

Also, Pete and Amy are gonna need a lot more earned media and fast:
 

Hopfrog

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,956
I feel like at the bare minimum if you are running to be POTUS you should at least know who the heads of state are in countries that share a border with us. Just saying.
 

Sheepinator

Member
Jul 25, 2018
27,941
Trump looking to bankrupt the country so the rich get richer (again). His top economics adviser is talking about plans in development to encourage as many people as possible to buy stocks (at these highest ever valuations except for maybe just before the 2000 crash). They're considering letting people invest $10K (annually I presume), and have it be like a 401K or traditional IRA where profits aren't taxed until they are withdrawn from the fund. It's a desperate attempt to try and buy votes, and if it succeeds, those with the most assets will be rewarded handsomely as more money flows into stocks. The media equates the stock market with the economy, which helps him get re-elected.

Kudlow and Vice President Mike Pence have suggested that the package could be unveiled in early fall, as voters are deliberating whether to elect Trump to a second term.

www.cnbc.com

White House considering tax incentive for more Americans to buy stocks, sources say

The proposal would be part of a new batch of proposed tax cuts.
 

studyguy

Member
Oct 26, 2017
11,282
Still absolutely wild that we're going to hit Super Tuesday with Bloomberg pitching a message of 'fuck those voters who already put a ballot down and picked someone who has been going through hell, pick me who literally just stepped out of my cave'

Trump looking to bankrupt the country so the rich get richer (again). His top economics adviser is talking about plans in development to encourage as many people as possible to buy stocks (at these highest ever valuations except for maybe just before the 2000 crash). They're considering letting people invest $10K (annually I presume), and have it be like a 401K or traditional IRA where profits aren't taxed until they are withdrawn from the fund. It's a desperate attempt to try and buy votes, and if it succeeds, those with the most assets will be rewarded handsomely as more money flows into stocks. The media equates the stock market with the economy, which helps him get re-elected.

Kudlow and Vice President Mike Pence have suggested that the package could be unveiled in early fall, as voters are deliberating whether to elect Trump to a second term.

www.cnbc.com

White House considering tax incentive for more Americans to buy stocks, sources say

The proposal would be part of a new batch of proposed tax cuts.

Broke: Give middle class americans an incentive to keep saving, 401ks (which a fraction of the population even max), IRAs (also the case with people not being able to throw enough in), fucking under their mattress or something which is probably more than most Americans save.

Woke:
2f0.png



Also this is an incredibly transparent attempt to keep high stock prices afloat as long as possible
 
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Kaitos

Tens across the board!
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
14,705
Pretty stupid to include Bloomberg when he's not on the ballot and write ins aren't allowed. kinda invalidates the poll since that could be Biden or anybody else's support.

Also, Pete and Amy are gonna need a lot more earned media and fast:

Exactly. It's gonna be Bloomberg v Bernie very quickly.
 

shadow_shogun

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,732
@NatashaBertrand
Judge Reggie Walton told the McCabe prosecutors: "The public is listening... I don't think people like the fact that you got somebody at the top basically trying to dictate whether somebody should be prosecuted ... I just think it's a banana republic when we go down that road." https://twitter.com/joshgerstein/status/1228406457919574016
Josh Gerstein

@joshgerstein
NEW: DOJ decision to drop McCabe probe came on deadline to release docs in related #FOIA case. They show the judge said he feared Trump comments about McCabe prosecution were turning US into a 'banana republic.' More: https://politi.co/2SNOCZk

15:43 - 14 Feb 2020
 
Oct 25, 2017
13,126
After NV, Bernie needs to go full in on GE mode. All in on attacking Trump only with a side of anti Bloomberg stuff from the surrogates. Leave PetesBillionaires and the other candidates behind.

The "Tonight is the beginning of the end for Donald Trump" and "Bernie Beats Trump" chants were great.
 

Deleted member 176

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
37,160
This poll gives me a lot more hope for NV and the rest of the primary


It seems that there aren't "Bernie" and "Moderate" voters, so a lot of voters for nonviable moderates could go to Bernie in second alignment. Warren also appears to be his biggest threat but she probsbly won't stick around.
 

aspiegamer

Member
Oct 27, 2017
10,458
ZzzzzzZzzzZzz...
However much I like the idea of Super Tuesday being super-er while earlier, yeah it does kinda mean every campaign has to throw its cash into a furnace for one single day and just hope it works out well enough to make more the next day. It's one reason a national primary is entirely unrealistic in this country.
 

IggyChooChoo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,230
I feel like at the bare minimum if you are running to be POTUS you should at least know who the heads of state are in countries that share a border with us. Just saying.
Even more pathetically, Klobuchar is on the commerce committee. You'd think she'd have retained the name of the president of our biggest trade partner.
 

Plinko

Member
Oct 28, 2017
18,562
That stocks plan is the most asinine thing I've seen in awhile and is going to backfire hard if Bernie is the nominee. He probably best messages the idea that the rich elites have no idea how to help the middle class.
 

fragamemnon

Member
Nov 30, 2017
6,814

Revenue neutral with money coming from increased short-term capital gains tax/fin transaction taxes and rolling in the HSAs program with it soon and ROTH IRAs down the road, and this is kind of OK?

No amount of these plans are going to fix retirement and health care for people. But traditional saving mechanism with banks and credit unions aren't great places for Americans to save money in long-term, yet people do that to some degree because other tax-advantaged saving vehicles have very fixed usage and access requirements with big penalties outside that usage.

People dip into 401ks and IRAs for all kinds of things-like home purchases, for example, even at great penalty, and many more don't have access to a 401k-like vehicle at all.

Democratic leadership at a later date could expand this savings program and fold it into turning the USPS into a banking organization to allow wider access to this kind of tax-advantaged savings to a wider array of the population.
 

AndyD

Mambo Number PS5
Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,602
Nashville
Also this is an incredibly transparent attempt to keep high stock prices afloat as long as possible
You are so correct. And we'll see a lot more and a lot worse between now and the end of the year is my guess. I fully foresee all China tarrifs waived under the pretext of "they suffered enough under Cornoavirus, time to help them out" with the real under-pretext of keeping the market strong for the election.

I don't understand why even look outside 401ks? Is it so average people can feel like they control it directly? That's a recipe for disaster.
 

FreezePeach

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
12,811
Stock market is a real great way to control the country if you get everyone all in. 'Fuck with me and you go bankrupt!'

Also i can see it now. Coronavirus everywhere right before election day. Trump brainwashes the trumpkins its all fine. Everyone else stays home.
 

Hopfrog

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,956
You are so correct. And we'll see a lot more and a lot worse between now and the end of the year is my guess. I fully foresee all China tarrifs waived under the pretext of "they suffered enough under Cornoavirus, time to help them out" with the real under-pretext of keeping the market strong for the election.

I don't understand why even look outside 401ks? Is it so average people can feel like they control it directly? That's a recipe for disaster.

Remember Bush's second term when Republicans wanted to privatize Social Security? That would have made 2008 even more interesting.
 

Seeya

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,984
That's also why you don't pay much attention to GE head to heads (the literal crux of the vote Biden arguement) this far out. Candidates H2Hs change overtime as they rise or fall in the primary polls. Case and point, Bidens have been getting worse while Sanders are showing strength.
 

fragamemnon

Member
Nov 30, 2017
6,814
I don't understand why even look outside 401ks? Is it so average people can feel like they control it directly? That's a recipe for disaster.

I mean average (well not average, let's be real about there's a large number of people that can't afford to save) people will go their bank and manage this account through some blend of low-cost index funds in a passive investing style alongside a separate checking and savings account.

The key thing here is that you have a place where you could park retirement on long-term investments/savings where if you do have a need to tap into for whatever reason, you can do so without the really big penalities and overhead that you have to do if your savings are 401k heavy (it should be hard to withdraw money from your 401k before retirement).

Also I don't see this having a huge prop-up effort on the overall market.
 

danm999

Member
Oct 29, 2017
17,096
Sydney
This poll gives me a lot more hope for NV and the rest of the primary


It seems that there aren't "Bernie" and "Moderate" voters, so a lot of voters for nonviable moderates could go to Bernie in second alignment. Warren also appears to be his biggest threat but she probsbly won't stick around.


So the stop Sanders movement should have coalesced around Warren.
 

adam387

Member
Nov 27, 2017
5,215
So, I actually disagree that the DNC would refuse to make Bernie the nominee in the event he has only a plurality. I actually do not think the DNC is as anti-Bernie as people want to pretend it is. If they were, they'd have changed the rules to make it harder for him to run, not literally give in to almost all of his demands. If you wanna fuck Bernie over you do it WAY before the process starts, not at the finish line. So, that makes no real sense to me.

Like, I totally think there are people the DNC would rather have anyone else as the nominee than Bernie. Without question. There are people within the DNC who would rather have Bernie than Biden. For a big chunk of the DNC a Bernie nomination is going to be a make lemonade out of lemons situation, but they're not totally stupid. What will happen is they'll force concessions out of him, probably on the Veep selection. Probably a few platform things as well, but it would be worked out way beforehand.

I doubt they even let it go to a second ballot. Let a few states go so each of the people who ran get their names on the roll, especially Pete as the first openly gay candidate to win delegates, and then move to nominate Bernie by acclimation.
 
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fragamemnon

Member
Nov 30, 2017
6,814
Fact: Stoneman Douglas' (the Parkland school) math program has one of the best competitive math teams in the nation, and has had so for decades.

also fact: I wanted to throw my graphic calculator on my desk at my computer screen reading that tweet.
 

Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,077
Minneapolis
So, I actually disagree that the DNC would refuse to make Bernie the nominee in the event he has only a plurality. I actually do not think the DNC is as anti-Bernie as people want to pretend it is. If they were, they'd have changed the rules to make it harder for him to run, not literally give in to almost all of his demands. If you wanna fuck Bernie over you do it WAY before the process starts, not at the finish line. So, that makes no real sense to me.

Like, I totally think there are people the DNC would rather have as the nominee than Bernie. Without question. There are people within the DNC who would rather have Bernie than Biden. For a big chunk of the DNC a Bernie nomination is going to be a make lemonade out of lemons situation, but they're not totally stupid. What will happen is they'll force concessions out of him, probably on the Veep selection. Probably a few platform things as well, but it would be worked out way beforehand.
The whole "the DNC would rather lose to Trump than win with Bernie" angle is borderline conspiratorial. Even the "Perez and crew would lose their jobs" line doesn't make any sense, as if they won't clean house if we somehow lose to Trump again (DNC chair isn't really a permanent career to begin with).

I think everyone understands that if Sanders is the plurality delegate winner only for the nomination to go someone else, his supporters will be furious and likely sit out the election, costing Democrats not only the presidency but countless House, Senate and state legislative seats. The cost of nursing some petty grudge is just way too high here.
 

Crocodile

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,071
So the stop Sanders movement should have coalesced around Warren.

This was obvious to me and the majority of the people posting in this thread back in October. She got the most second choice votes in the majority of polling and the least number of Democrats would be disappointed with her as the nominee per that same polling (and this was across a LOT of polls). Alas, the "establishment" (for whatever that term is worth) lost its shit rather than come around so here we are now.
 

fragamemnon

Member
Nov 30, 2017
6,814
I think looking at the situation in a purely binary decision tree (plurality of delegates-> must be nominee) is just too reductive and oversimplifies the situation.

The difference between Bernie getting 38-40% of the vote in a winnowed field in later contests vs. him winning a plurality with a drip-drip-drip of 26% or so is actually massive.

Thankfully I don't think this is going to be a problem and we're just churning scenarios out of boredom and anticipation.
 

AndyD

Mambo Number PS5
Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,602
Nashville
I mean average (well not average, let's be real about there's a large number of people that can't afford to save) people will go their bank and manage this account through some blend of low-cost index funds in a passive investing style alongside a separate checking and savings account.

The key thing here is that you have a place where you could park retirement on long-term investments/savings where if you do have a need to tap into for whatever reason, you can do so without the really big penalities and overhead that you have to do if your savings are 401k heavy (it should be hard to withdraw money from your 401k before retirement).

Also I don't see this having a huge prop-up effort on the overall market.
I mean if you max your 401k, then your IRA, then you would have this 10 in a "readily available" vehicle? I guess you can do this 10 before your 401k or IRA to retain that availability.
 

danm999

Member
Oct 29, 2017
17,096
Sydney
This was obvious to me and the majority of the people posting in this thread back in October. She got the most second choice votes in the majority of polling and the least number of Democrats would be disappointed with her as the nominee per that same polling (and this was across a LOT of polls). Alas, the "establishment" (for whatever that term is worth) lost its shit rather than come around so here we are now.

I mean she got the most votes from the NYT editorial board and they denied her a sole endorsement. I know they aren't part of the party establishment but they're one of the key liberal institutions and they absolutely failed to place their bets correctly.
 
Oct 27, 2017
16,552

twitter.com

Matt Binder on Twitter

“mike bloomberg on fox news in 2011: "i'm a friend of donald trump. he's a new york icon." he's then asked about trump's racist birther attacks on obama. bloomberg downplays trump's involvement: "this birther issue is more than one person, lots of groups have glommed on to this"...

more oppo

Yet Obama ain't saying shit about him using him in his ads.
 

Sheepinator

Member
Jul 25, 2018
27,941
Revenue neutral with money coming from increased short-term capital gains tax/fin transaction taxes and rolling in the HSAs program with it soon and ROTH IRAs down the road, and this is kind of OK?

No amount of these plans are going to fix retirement and health care for people. But traditional saving mechanism with banks and credit unions aren't great places for Americans to save money in long-term, yet people do that to some degree because other tax-advantaged saving vehicles have very fixed usage and access requirements with big penalties outside that usage.

People dip into 401ks and IRAs for all kinds of things-like home purchases, for example, even at great penalty, and many more don't have access to a 401k-like vehicle at all.

Democratic leadership at a later date could expand this savings program and fold it into turning the USPS into a banking organization to allow wider access to this kind of tax-advantaged savings to a wider array of the population.
It wouldn't be deficit neutral. As you're aware, those on higher incomes who are likely already investing in the market will be able to take full advantage of this tax shelter, which means they'll end up paying less taxes than they do now. It's also regressive, in that those on lower incomes won't be able to use it much or at all.

This would definitely boost the stock market, which benefits the wealthiest in the country the most. And clearly it would be floated at a time to try and juice the market before the election.

There are some merits to this sort of plan, however we're already at trillion dollar deficits before adding this tax shelter, and it's somewhat regressive, and it furthers wealth inequality, and being pushed by Republicans I can see it would be cover for later trying to reduce social security or other benefits.

Doesn't everyone have access to an IRA?
 
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