What is this even?? Why!?!
Are we sure the mods didn't replace adam with a dopelganger during the ban? Like we lose adam386 and they roll in a new adam387 who starts liking Bernie and has horrible taste? Is new adam actually just Lis Smith?
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US PoliEra 2020 |OT 2| Dershowitz says "Quid Pro Quo on the Go?" [See Staff Post]
- Thread starter TheHunter
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What is this even?? Why!?!
Are we sure the mods didn't replace adam with a dopelganger during the ban? Like we lose adam386 and they roll in a new adam387 who starts liking Bernie and has horrible taste? Is new adam actually just Lis Smith?
So I got curious again, and I decided to see how Super Tuesday is looking for Bernie.
These are the states that will be voting that day.
Bernie won Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma and Vermont on Super Tuesday 4 years ago. And if recent polling holds, he's leading in California, Texas and Utah. If Bernie were to win all of those, that's already half of the Super Tuesday states. The polling for the other half of states is from months ago, and a lot has changed since then. And there are some haven't even been polled yet. The only state that is an exception to both of those factors is North Carolina, and even then, the last polls were conducted between Iowa and New Hampshire, with Sanders behind Biden at 6. I'm wondering if Bernie's now leading there, too.
But all Bernie would have to do is win one other state, plus the 7 I previously mentioned, and he would win the most states on Super Tuesday. And it's very possible he could win more than that. It depends on how much more momentum he gains following Nevada and South Carolina.
tl;dr Bernie's in a good position to win, if not dominate, Super Tuesday. He needs to win the states he got in 2016 + 4 more (3 of which he's currently leading in recent polling).
These are the states that will be voting that day.
Bernie won Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma and Vermont on Super Tuesday 4 years ago. And if recent polling holds, he's leading in California, Texas and Utah. If Bernie were to win all of those, that's already half of the Super Tuesday states. The polling for the other half of states is from months ago, and a lot has changed since then. And there are some haven't even been polled yet. The only state that is an exception to both of those factors is North Carolina, and even then, the last polls were conducted between Iowa and New Hampshire, with Sanders behind Biden at 6. I'm wondering if Bernie's now leading there, too.
But all Bernie would have to do is win one other state, plus the 7 I previously mentioned, and he would win the most states on Super Tuesday. And it's very possible he could win more than that. It depends on how much more momentum he gains following Nevada and South Carolina.
tl;dr Bernie's in a good position to win, if not dominate, Super Tuesday. He needs to win the states he got in 2016 + 4 more (3 of which he's currently leading in recent polling).
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On top of that, Sanders should be viable in every state so he'll be racking up delegates everywhere.
No, but Klob might
I really think Bernie's gonna pull through with the challenge run tho
I gots to go.
Also, my tastes have always been shit....and i still don't like Bernie, but he's better than Bloomberg....so here we are
I didn't even think about that. So even in that minority of states he doesn't win in, he'll be at minimum 3rd, likely 2nd in most of them, so he'll still be getting plenty of delegates. And it's possible that, with the moderates so splintered, he could get even more delegates due to non-viable candidates.
Fucking hell. I'm beginning to feel like Bernie could actually net over half of the 1,344 delegates up for grabs that day (672) even with such a crowded field of candidates. And even then that might be an understatement.
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It's his job right now to make the margins in delegate-rich states as wacky as possible. Even if he's out here winning states, it won't matter much if he goes into a contested convention in which no party actors or other candidates want him to be the nominee. He needs to reach 1991 as soon as possible and clench the nomination outright (I think he can).
Sour cream and onion is the best dip, tho. Well, not better than queso, but still the best "party dip."
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I'm seriously thinking that Super Tuesday will decide who will become the nominee. Looking at past Super Tuesdays, every person that won the most Super Tuesday states for their party's primary went on to become their party's presidential nominee. And a lot of them didn't win as convincingly as Bernie may very well do. For example, Obama only won 13 more delegates than Hillary did in 2008, and Trump only got 37 more than Ted Cruz (3 other candidates trailed Cruz) in 2016.
I feel like it's all going to come down to the remaining amount of moderate candidates, and if their voters have coalesced around one of them yet. That, and fuck knows what will happen with Bloomberg.
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I really hope that Warren sticks around at least for the Florida primaries so I can vote for her.
A scene from the debate:
Moderator: Senator Warren, this question is to you. You've called for--
Warren: LEMME STOP YOU RIGHT THERE. YOU SEE THAT MUTHAFUCKA OVER THERE? THAT BILLIONAIRE
Steyer: What did I---
Warren: WHEN MY HAND GOES UP YOUR MOUTH GOES SHUT STEYER. I'M TALKING ABOUT THE SHITTY MAYOR
Pete: Wait, what did I?
Warren: NOT YOU LITTLE BOY THE ONE WHO OWNS THE WINE CAVE AND IS OLD AND RACIST.
Biden: I'm not racist-look I talked about this with Bran Flake and Corn Pop back in the
Warren: LET ME TEAR INTO THIS BILLIONAIRE TRASH I COULD THROW SOMETHING
Amy: I got you fam.
Moderator: Senator Warren, this question is to you. You've called for--
Warren: LEMME STOP YOU RIGHT THERE. YOU SEE THAT MUTHAFUCKA OVER THERE? THAT BILLIONAIRE
Steyer: What did I---
Warren: WHEN MY HAND GOES UP YOUR MOUTH GOES SHUT STEYER. I'M TALKING ABOUT THE SHITTY MAYOR
Pete: Wait, what did I?
Warren: NOT YOU LITTLE BOY THE ONE WHO OWNS THE WINE CAVE AND IS OLD AND RACIST.
Biden: I'm not racist-look I talked about this with Bran Flake and Corn Pop back in the
Warren: LET ME TEAR INTO THIS BILLIONAIRE TRASH I COULD THROW SOMETHING
Amy: I got you fam.
I'd die. And then buy some Warren merch with those crazy lines on them. But you know she'll get attacked for being "too negative" any day now, just look at this topic already.
Oh my god, if that happened I would literally die. Hilarious.
She would never do it though. :/
I see that while Pete is channeling the power of wine caves and Kevin Costner, Joe Biden now has Cher, Amy with old reliable (her stapler) Bernie with..... the Squad? Tom Steyer probably a waifu pillow of Bernie and Bloomberg sacks of money.
I cant think of a stand for Warren tho sadly.
I cant think of a stand for Warren tho sadly.
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Okay, even though I have a degree in creative writing, I only know how to write one character. And it's not not my mom.
Except my mom would be way more vulgar.....
She also said tonight she would vote, and I quote "for that old fuck to stop the racist old fuck from winning so it's just going fucking great for me, Jesus Christ."
That's as close to a Bernie endorsement as you'll get from her.
Biden will call Mike a former Republican
twitter.com
Jennifer Epstein on Twitter
““Who’s most likely to beat him? Is a former Republican who just turned Democrat likely to defeat Donald Trump? Is Bernie, a Democratic socialist, a good guy, most likely to defeat Donald Trump? Who’s most likely to defeat Donald Trump?" Biden asks.”
twitter.com
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Student loan debt is the thing that people are going to talk about from that policy proposal. I think its outcomes-obsessed approach tied to labor market needs with a focus on beating up state underfunding and four-year college costs is a moderate neoliberal approach to some of the problems with higher ed.
I feel like there's a really bright line around student loan debt in the primary. Bernie's maximalist position is the most important thing to his durable base of economically "sensitive" young college educated voters, and for them is kind of single-issue. Bernie as a candidate probably couldn't exist w/o that position.
Those voters can't vote for someone who takes an approach to it like Pete/Amy/Bloomberg while an absolutist candidate exists.
If you're not in that group, the maximalist position is full of moral hazard and comes at a huge opportunity cost to do other things. I don't know if there is a viable position in between-Warren tried to walk between worlds here and I think it was a big part of why she never took off with Bernie's people even when he hit rock bottom.
I feel like there's a really bright line around student loan debt in the primary. Bernie's maximalist position is the most important thing to his durable base of economically "sensitive" young college educated voters, and for them is kind of single-issue. Bernie as a candidate probably couldn't exist w/o that position.
Those voters can't vote for someone who takes an approach to it like Pete/Amy/Bloomberg while an absolutist candidate exists.
If you're not in that group, the maximalist position is full of moral hazard and comes at a huge opportunity cost to do other things. I don't know if there is a viable position in between-Warren tried to walk between worlds here and I think it was a big part of why she never took off with Bernie's people even when he hit rock bottom.
I sent my husband down to the wine cave and requested, kindly, that my 2 hours of Adam time come Wednesday night. I get 2 whole hours a week now!
If I were his advisers, I'd probably just take the bad press and stay home and continue to blanket the airwaves on the commercial breaks tbh.
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Same, but I think his ego prevents him from skipping out. Rich white men have the most fragile little egos in the entire world.
Also, maybe someone should just put a stapler on Amy's podium and we just see what happens?
Yep no upside for him getting on that stage.
However he probably thinks he is a master debater and won't miss out.
An anthropomorphic cell phone displaying a picture of Warren and Bailey taking a selfie.
His supporters probably don't even watch the debates. But they might hear about him getting steamrolled!
He has no choice tbh. I think it's a very lose lose situation for him.
Yeah, if he's too chicken to get on the debate stage against other dems the narrative will be that he couldn't possibly take on Trump if he's scared of dems.
Bloomberg isn't a master debater from what I've seen nor is he anywhere close to Trump at bullying his opposition into submission. He's got the charisma of poorly made lukewarm oatmeal.
He's also got a problem where there's something that everyone hates.
Bernie supporters hate him because he's Wall Street personified.
Minorities hate him for stop and frisk and support for redlining.
2nd amendment supporters hate him because he's super pro gun control.
Anyone with a Libertarian streak hates him for his war against soda.
If you're a woman you hate him because he's a sexist who probably encouraged or committed sexual harassment in his business.
If you're LGBTQI, you hate him because he's transphobic and more.
No matter who you are, you're going to have something actually tangible to attack him with. It doesn't matter if you're Bernie or Pete, you're going to make sure he's not getting away from that debate unscathed.
He's also got a problem where there's something that everyone hates.
Bernie supporters hate him because he's Wall Street personified.
Minorities hate him for stop and frisk and support for redlining.
2nd amendment supporters hate him because he's super pro gun control.
Anyone with a Libertarian streak hates him for his war against soda.
If you're a woman you hate him because he's a sexist who probably encouraged or committed sexual harassment in his business.
If you're LGBTQI, you hate him because he's transphobic and more.
No matter who you are, you're going to have something actually tangible to attack him with. It doesn't matter if you're Bernie or Pete, you're going to make sure he's not getting away from that debate unscathed.
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I forgot that it destroys his beats Trump narrative. Yeah the media coverage would be brutal.
If she does burn down Bloomberg's chances at the debate should definitely meme it with a Play of the game kinda selfie like that BotW one from way back then.
Obama endorsing and legitimizing Bernie to moderate Dems is going to be huge. As much as rose twitter hates it.
What Obama Is Saying in Private About the Democratic Primary
Sure, he’s got thoughts about Sanders and Bloomberg — and others in the field. But keeping mum is part of a much bigger plan.nymag.com
But Politico was telling us Obama would totally speak out to stop Sanders?! Who do I believe omg
edit: sorry for the DP it's early morning here and usually this thread moves at a breakneck pace lol
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