Because they hated Hillary more. It was more of a "I hate Hillary" vote than liking Trump.
Could it happen again? Sure. I doubt it this time.
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US PoliEra 2020 |OT 3| "I think he's learned his lesson" says The Concerned Immoderate Darling Collins.
- Thread starter TheHunter
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Because they hated Hillary more. It was more of a "I hate Hillary" vote than liking Trump.
Could it happen again? Sure. I doubt it this time.
According to polling, people who hate both candidates this time around are swinging hard toward Dems
G. Elliot Morris has looked into that- it appears to be partisan non-response bias showing up, if you normalize the amounts of R/D/Is, its basically constant.
One of the problems four years ago was Trump winning most voters who viewed both candidates unfavorably. Would at least be nice to reverse that.
That's the only thing I can take from it.
I know that shy Republicans are going to come home over the next few months, but Trump is incompetent and will fuck up the Coronavirus response (and of course that will only help to fuck up the economy), so what I mean is that this will be a long nine months in terms of polling/favorability for him.
iirc, it's that some of the gains are real, but some of it is partisan non-response bias. I think a lot of it is soft partisan inevitably coming home too, which I think both Cohn and Silver have talked about too.
He is finally almost over the electability hurdle that has been plaguing his campaign for months now. It suppressed both his GE matchup numbers and national poll numbers. I'm not sure we've seen his ceiling yet. I expect that we'll finally know by Super Tuesday. I'm personally hoping for his RCP national average to sit comfortably above 35%
I've decided to vote for Biden. I am not comfortable with Sanders as the nominee. I no longer need to vote for him to stop Bloomberg because Biden led the latest poll in OK. Warren has no chance in hell.
MULawPoll on Twitter
“Trump job approval: 48% approve of the job he is doing, 48% disapprove. This the first @mulawpoll since Trump took office in which his disapproval was not higher than his approval. #mulawpoll”twitter.com
I want off this timeline.
No Democratic candidate in the last 40 years has been reviled as much as Hillary Clinton.
I was referring to the part about this year's Iowa, where the lack of results really sapped Pete and Bernie hard. It takes days, even more than a week, to get the final results out for a race that's close.
This will be close, if not, his high point; the corona virus is going to take a bite out of that.
WA more diverse than NV when it has 10% more white people and not nearly as large of a Latino population?
Gotcha, no doubt. Washington sometimes gets a rep for being less diverse than it actually is, I think from being lumped with Oregon
Hillary was known, Trump was not. People who didn't like both figured they weren't going to get what they wanted with Hillary but took a gamble on Trump. Now Trump has been president for four years. He could still win, but voters can't project what they want out of Trump onto him now.
I just want you to know that I read everything you post in Looking Glass's voice and this post in particular cracked me up.
MULawPoll on Twitter
“Trump job approval: 48% approve of the job he is doing, 48% disapprove. This the first @mulawpoll since Trump took office in which his disapproval was not higher than his approval. #mulawpoll”
I wonder if that'll change after his disastrous mishandling of the caronavirus situation.
The difference between 2016 and now is that, while I think the notion of Trump as an outsider is obviously laughable, it's at least true that Trump didn't have a legislative record to point to the way Clinton did. 4ish years of Federal office makes that not true any more.
For those following the markets...
Multiple day big slides are way worse than a one-day crash, and that's what's happening. During Trump's term so far big drops are followed by big gains. I don't think we've seen a week of sustained losses this big at all. Will be interesting to see if there's a rally afterwards, if this settles somewhere as a correction, or if the slide continues.
Multiple day big slides are way worse than a one-day crash, and that's what's happening. During Trump's term so far big drops are followed by big gains. I don't think we've seen a week of sustained losses this big at all. Will be interesting to see if there's a rally afterwards, if this settles somewhere as a correction, or if the slide continues.
Trump's record this 3 years has been so awful I don't even know which angle the candidate even starts at. It's like choice paralysis on the debate stage.
There hasn't been a SINGLE aspect in politics where he hasn't completely shit the bed in. Yes even including his house of cards economy with his bad trade deals, shitty tariffs, farmer/manufacturing decline, stagnating wages/inequality, worst stock decrease since 2008 etc.
There hasn't been a SINGLE aspect in politics where he hasn't completely shit the bed in. Yes even including his house of cards economy with his bad trade deals, shitty tariffs, farmer/manufacturing decline, stagnating wages/inequality, worst stock decrease since 2008 etc.
Why? Biden basically staked everything on SC and iirc he won the black vote in NV, so he was expected to do well there. And the WI General Election polls show that despite people being even on Trump's approval and having a more favorable opinion of him than any of the Dems by a lot, the Dems are basically even/slightly ahead
Can I ask why you are more comfortable with Biden over Sanders?
The beginning of new cases in the US doesnt sound like it will inspire a big boost.
It certainly doesn't. That's going to affect travel in the US and the international situation is going to start materially affecting all sorts of commerce.
That said, I'm hesitant to ever be a predictor. I just watch.
If Yang takes the offer I hope it kills his fucking brand as an outsider politican.
I thought the blowout NV win + the Steyer effect would give Bernie a narrow win in SC or at least keep Biden to single digits. but we'll see.
Because I trust Biden to do what the party says, nominate and staff his administration with competent people, and not be - or let his zealots be - antagonistic toward congressional Democrats.
Well, plenty of people still will do exactly that. But hopefully fewer people.
Yeah I am not buying this idea that Sanders is incabable of the same thing
At least with the majority of Democratic nominees... many of them have served in the Public sphere for a very long time
Why are we so hyperfocused on extreme elements all the time as a motivator for our decision making. Not saying I inherently think supporting Biden or your reasoning is bad or misplaced
But by the same token the negative labeling on Bernie definitely does seem misplaced
wouldn't be surprised if this worked, frankly. he was always a genuine neoliberal in anti-establishment/populist clothing.
Next election they're going to be essential when they can vote!
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