US PoliEra 2020 |OT4| Disaster Voltron

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Surfinn

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Oct 25, 2017
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And hopefully this is the last time I have to post Krystal Ball related content.
This woman is incredibly brave. Her emotion and response as a victim of sexual assault feels completely genuine.

She deserves to have this make national news, and I hope it happens.

But I also know she's gotta be even braver during these crazy times because she's gonna catch a lot of heat for this as things escalate.
 

Pooh

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,520
The Hundred Acre Wood
Biden will deny it and nominate a woman to be his VP, and everyone will move on to that news, because people will be focused on beating Trump and we've seen that "he said/she said" stuff has no real effect on politicians anymore as long as they deny it and people hate something else more

I'm not condoning it but I just don't see how this affects anything. Had these exclusives come out several months ago it would've ended his campaign, but now it's too late.
 

LGHT_TRSN

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,875
In a perfect world, he'd step down from this primary to demonstrate that yes, there is indeed a difference between Democrats and Republicans when it comes to this shit.
Honestly might be the only path forward, regardless of whether the accusation is true or not. There is no way out of this short of him stepping down that will give Dem's the moral high ground required to convince suburban women and younger demographics that they need to vote against Trump. We already see the normalization of Trump to such a degree that some people have trouble distinguishing the two parties. If we run an accused rapist, that issue becomes unbearably worse.

We need turnout to win, and I don't see how this isn't going to impact turnout in the demo's we need.
 

Jay Mcsaros

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Oct 27, 2017
1,461
The clue lies in media disapproval numbers. People hate the media in this country more than anything.
This is exactly right, Gallup just released data showing that even with COVID-19 news, they have the lowest approval ratings by far, way behind Trump, Pence, hospitals, anyone.

This is 2nd most followed event since Gallup began measuring, trailing only 9/11.
 

Ac30

Member
Oct 30, 2017
13,547
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What if he believes it didn't happen? I don't understand what you're saying. He should apologize to her anyway?
There’s no real way to defend yourself here if your were Biden, let’s be honest. It’s he-said she-said unless they can find that scheduler (if I heard that right?) she mentioned in interview with Krystal and partisans will just pick sides.


I feel the only option moving forward is an investigation.
I’m sure WaPo is already on it.
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,193
There’s really no “good” options for Biden here. Talking about it acknowledges it. Him apologising will sink him. Him denying it will sink him. Sigh. What a sucky year.
No, he can deny it and be just fine. That's probably his best option.

I know Lt. Governor of Virginia is lower-profile, but Justin Fairfax was just like, "Nah fam, didn't happen, she's lying," and everyone stopped caring.
 

plagiarize

Don't touch your face!
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Oct 25, 2017
11,389
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What if he believes it didn't happen? I don't understand what you're saying. He should apologize to her anyway?
For the record, I believe it happened.

I expect it'll be the same crap we've heard from Weinstein on down.

But yeah, wouldn't it be something if he apologized to her face to face? Even if she didn't accept the apology.

I want *better* from our next leader than we've had from Trump on issues exactly like this. I didn't want to have to cede the 'probably guilty of sexual assault' line of attack against Trump. I don't really care what he believes happened. The very best case scenario you can craft, is that he didn't get verbal consent, 'made a move', and the woman wasn't into him at all.

It would be something else to see the accused take some responsibility for how they made the victim feel.

Look, I hate the choice. It's clear what the choice is, but that doesn't mean I have to like it. But, you know, 'hey, sure he probably victimized women, but he won't force you to have a baby you don't want' isn't an argument I want to find myself having to make when I try and encourage people to do the thing that gives us the best chance of removing Trump (voting for Biden).
 

Aaron

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Oct 25, 2017
14,437
Honestly might be the only path forward, regardless of whether the accusation is true or not. There is no way out of this short of him stepping down that will give Dem's the moral high ground required to convince suburban women and younger demographics that they need to vote against Trump. We already see the normalization of Trump to such a degree that some people have trouble distinguishing the two parties. If we run an accused rapist, that issue becomes unbearably worse.

We need turnout to win, and I don't see how this isn't going to impact turnout in the demo's we need.
If he didn't do it - and just to be perfectly clear, I am not saying he didn't! - what could we take away from forcing him out of the race anyway?

Should Buttigieg or Warren have exited the race when Jacob Wohl brought up accusations against them?

There should absolutely be an investigation. I have no reason to not believe the accuser. But adopting this mentality allows the right to weaponize our morality against us.
 

Power Shot

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Oct 27, 2017
580
I've been sitting here thinking about how to feel about all the Biden stuff. It's so utterly pessimistic as a lurker in this thread.

1. Believe women. Flat out, always. However, my version of belief may be different from other peoples. I believe people have a right to tell their story. I believe people ought to be taken at face value. I believe people should be able to seek whatever form of justice they want/deserve. This woman deserves to be believed, her story deserves to be told, she has a right to not be ignored. This is so often the case (case in point, Ford).

2. How Biden deals with this story will impact how it's told. I've heard a lot of similarities to Ford with this case, and that's not true- yet. The problem with comparing this to Kav or Trump's assault allegations was the fact that the women were ignored, justice was not done. Ford flat out gave them the go ahead to find evidence and they refused to find that evidence. So, no, this case is not like Ford's (again- yet). The problem with comparing this to right-wing scandals is that major journalists haven't had an opportunity to vet the information yet. I'm fine withholding my emotions and waiting for news- I'm sick and tired of immediate, emotional reactions.

3. These immediate, emotional reactions, by the way, are what keep these stories from making the impact they should. By relying on raw emotion (pathos), the argument is immediately weakened. She has credibility-she has already accused Biden of making her feel inappropriate and he's acknowledged that-but we're going to need data to get the full scope of this (something akin to Beach Week, and the revelations about Kav's calendars). Likewise, Ford had affidavits from witnesses from the time which matched her story. I have no problem waiting for this information to come out, and history has shown that it will.

Please note that this is not an assessment of whether the victim should or shouldn't be believed, but more how I've come to think about the accusation in the last day. Neither is it an endorsement of a candidate.
 

thefro

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Oct 25, 2017
4,735
I don't disagree but it really has to blow up on mainstream news first. Reddit/Twitter/ResetEra is a bubble. If Ronan Farrow does an expose or CNN/MSNBC/FoxNews runs with it, all bets are off. If it stays in the "very online" arena, I don't think it has any measurable effect, and that really sucks, but I also think it's our sad reality. I've vocally defended Biden from the "brain rot/dementia" crowd because of how that rhetoric affects me personally, but he was always my bottom barrel choice to be the nom and dear god do I wish we had literally anyone else.
I watched the whole interview. I'd like to hear all the context from news outlets as to why this wasn't previously covered and why the Warren campaign (who Reade said she contacted) and others never followed up on this. In the interview Reade said she let them know there was more to the story that she hasn't told yet.

My current opinion is I don't find this to be a story that is credible that I can fully believe (and I'm trying to believe it). I'll wait for other evidence/reporting here.

I trust that Obama's team did extensive vetting on Biden in 2008. I also don't believe Biden (pre-2008) was competent or powerful or rich enough to be a serial sexual predator. If more people come forward and that's the case, I'll be surprised and very disappointed/disgusted.

I'm still going to vote for whoever's on the D side against Trump, whether that's Biden (who never was my first choice) or it ends up being someone else.
 

Y2Kev

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Oct 25, 2017
8,073
I think what would force him to step down is if more people come out and they are heard. Not on Krystal Ball's show. Otherwise I don't know.
 

Jehuty

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Oct 25, 2017
72
Looks like Trump is forming his backup plan in case his poll numbers don't look good come the fall. War with Venezuela seems to be the course he will take
to try to secure his reelection.
 

Yoma

Member
Oct 25, 2017
604
I'm not going to make a judgement on the matter until more reputable sources show more light on this. I don't want to jump into any assumptions just yet without more verification.
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,193
Honestly might be the only path forward, regardless of whether the accusation is true or not. There is no way out of this short of him stepping down that will give Dem's the moral high ground required to convince suburban women and younger demographics that they need to vote against Trump. We already see the normalization of Trump to such a degree that some people have trouble distinguishing the two parties. If we run an accused rapist, that issue becomes unbearably worse.

We need turnout to win, and I don't see how this isn't going to impact turnout in the demo's we need.
Younger demos don't vote anyway.

Again, let's separate whether or not Biden did this (c'mon, he probably did) from how the electorate will react and what we know about the electorate.

1. We have evidence that in this sort of he-said/she-said situation, denying and ignoring the claim post-denial works...even for Democratic pols.
2. We have evidence that calling on someone to step down for sexual assault harms the person who calls for it (see Gillibrand/Franken)
3. We have evidence that public trust in the media has eroded (largely for conservatives, but for moderates and liberals as well)

Put these things together, and a "he-said/she-said" situation played out in the news media is, and I'm sorry to say this, not even a fucking problem for the voters at large.

Black voters are going to come out for Biden and suburban voters are probably not going to be turned off in any significant way. Hell, the moderates-who-want-to-look-like-independent-thinkers already distrust the media and would probably appreciate a Biden denial (whether it is gentle or angry) more than an apology or acknowledgement of wrongdoing. There you go. Those are the populations that you need to come out.
 

LGHT_TRSN

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Oct 25, 2017
3,875
If he didn't do it - and just to be perfectly clear, I am not saying he didn't! - what could we take away from forcing him out of the race anyway?
We risk alienating voters who feel like their votes been taken away from them, and if they just select another candidate who isn't Bernie we risk alienating those supporters who will probably feel like they've been cheated since he was running 2nd in the primary.

The big unknown in all this is whether selecting Bernie would legitimately hurt our votes with older people and suburban voters. If it doesn't, then he would seem to be the safest choice as we'll get the passionate youth and hopefully retain the advantage in the suburbs. The risk is we lose enough suburban voters and don't make up for it with youth voters.
 

Vena

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Oct 25, 2017
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I watched the whole interview. I'd like to hear all the context from news outlets as to why this wasn't previously covered and why the Warren campaign (who Reade said she contacted) and others never followed up on this. In the interview Reade said she let them know there was more to the story that she hasn't told yet.
It was nearly 30 years ago. Other campaigns almost certainly would have done basic oppo on this when given that info, especially Warren's campaign or Bernie's and I'd be surprised if the latter hadn't also been given this information months ago based on the video.

30 years + campaigns not going anywhere with it, probably means no one could find anything to substantiate.

I don't know. It's really hard to believe that Warren's campaign wouldn't have done due-diligence on this, or Bernie's. And if they didn't, this bodes ill of their campaigns as well.
 

JVIDICAN

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Oct 25, 2017
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Chicagoland
I'm not going to make a judgement on the matter until more reputable sources show more light on this. I don't want to jump into any assumptions just yet without more verification.
I have no issue with this take. The convention isn't untill July. We likely won't have another primary until June. There's time for this to play out.
 

Blue Skies

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Mar 27, 2019
7,990
Looks like Trump is forming his backup plan in case his poll numbers don't look good come the fall. War with Venezuela seems to be the course he will take
to try to secure his reelection.
There won’t be a war with Venezuela. He’s just trying to shore up his Florida support. Now that Biden is gonna be the nom, Florida isn’t as guaranteed as it used to be
 

JVIDICAN

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Oct 25, 2017
2,811
Chicagoland
We risk alienating voters who feel like their votes been taken away from them, and if they just select another candidate who isn't Bernie we risk alienating those supporters who will probably feel like they've been cheated since he was running 2nd in the primary.

The big unknown in all this is whether selecting Bernie would legitimately hurt our votes with older people and suburban voters. If it doesn't, then he would seem to be the safest choice as we'll get the passionate youth and hopefully retain the advantage in the suburbs. The risk is we lose enough suburban voters and don't make up for it with youth voters.
Never count on youths.
 

plagiarize

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Oct 25, 2017
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I think what would force him to step down is if more people come out and they are heard. Not on Krystal Ball's show. Otherwise I don't know.
Behavior like he's accused of was normalized (in ways it never should have been) for a lot of Biden's political career. I'm sure secret service types could tell us some really horrendous stories of handing cash to distressed women at the White House before sneaking them out a back door and driving them home. I'm sure you've got equivalent stories going back a ways at the House and Senate to boot. Look at Lewinski. At the time, barely anyone dared point out that an intern isn't exactly going to feel safe saying 'no' to the President. We acknowledge the danger of power imbalances in jails and schools and universities, and I can't think of a much bigger imbalance than that.

There's no way we can rule out more people coming forwards, and were we to throw a balled up piece of newspaper at a room full of 70+ year old career politicians, chances are we'd hit someone who did something like this.

I really hope we don't have to wait another decade or more before it becomes much more of a rarity for someone to have something like this in their past.
 

Blader

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Oct 27, 2017
13,665
No, he can deny it and be just fine. That's probably his best option.

I know Lt. Governor of Virginia is lower-profile, but Justin Fairfax was just like, "Nah fam, didn't happen, she's lying," and everyone stopped caring.
Keith Ellison was accused of sexual assault I think a year ago by his ex-wife, and then that just didn't go anywhere. But if I remember right, some of the details in that case were weird, like she changed her story later or something.
 

Ac30

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Oct 30, 2017
13,547
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Looks like Trump is forming his backup plan in case his poll numbers don't look good come the fall. War with Venezuela seems to be the course he will take
to try to secure his reelection.
The drug lord shit is a dumb distraction attempt, he’s not going launch a Panama-style overthrow.
[
It was nearly 30 years ago. Other campaigns almost certainly would have done basic oppo on this when given that info, especially Warren's campaign or Bernie's and I'd be surprised if the latter hadn't also been given this information months ago based on the video.

30 years + campaigns not going anywhere with it, probably means no one could find anything to substantiate.

I don't know. It's really hard to believe that Warren's campaign wouldn't have done due-diligence on this, or Bernie's. And if they didn't, this bodes ill of their campaigns as well.
If I’m honest them using this as oppo would be make me queasy. By all means let her tell her story but the Warren campaign shouldn’t be the one telling it.

Unless I’m reading this post chain weong
 

LGHT_TRSN

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,875
Younger demos don't vote anyway.

Again, let's separate whether or not Biden did this (c'mon, he probably did) from how the electorate will react and what we know about the electorate.

1. We have evidence that in this sort of he-said/she-said situation, denying and ignoring the claim post-denial works...even for Democratic pols.
2. We have evidence that calling on someone to step down for sexual assault harms the person who calls for it (see Gillibrand/Franken)
3. We have evidence that public trust in the media has eroded (largely for conservatives, but for moderates and liberals as well)

Put these things together, and a "he-said/she-said" situation played out in the news media is, and I'm sorry to say this, not even a fucking problem for the voters at large.

Black voters are going to come out for Biden and suburban voters are probably not going to be turned off in any significant way. Hell, the moderates-who-want-to-look-like-independent-thinkers already distrust the media and would probably appreciate a Biden denial (whether it is gentle or angry) more than an apology or acknowledgement of wrongdoing. There you go. Those are the populations that you need to come out.
I just don't know that we have evidence of this working on a national level for a Dem.
This is a known and the answer to that is Florida.
All we know is older voters prefer Biden to Bernie in massive numbers. We don't know that they will decide not to participate in a GE if Bernie is the candidate.
 

Vena

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Oct 25, 2017
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If I’m honest them using this as oppo would be make me queasy. By all means let her tell her story but the Warren campaign shouldn’t be the one telling it.

Unless I’m reading this post chain weong
The oppo would be to corroborate her and give her a voice. Warren did this with Bloomberg + sexual assault + NDAs, why would she not give power to another woman against another man on the stage? Why wouldn't Bernie? Or Klob? Or anyone else for that matter if this was given to them months ago?
 

Vena

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Oct 25, 2017
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I just don't know that we have evidence of this working on a national level for a Dem.
Bill Clinton. I don't know how one gets more national than the President.

And unfortunately, sentiment in the general populace is still very much regressive when it comes to this stuff.
 

konka

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Oct 25, 2017
2,804
I feel like this thread is existing in another dimension. I haven’t seen or heard anyone talk about this Biden stuff not on the internet. He isn’t going to step down, it’s kinda weird to see people saying here he has to or they expect that in any way.
 

Chaos Legion

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Oct 30, 2017
5,309
It was nearly 30 years ago. Other campaigns almost certainly would have done basic oppo on this when given that info, especially Warren's campaign or Bernie's and I'd be surprised if the latter hadn't also been given this information months ago based on the video.

30 years + campaigns not going anywhere with it, probably means no one could find anything to substantiate.

I don't know. It's really hard to believe that Warren's campaign wouldn't have done due-diligence on this, or Bernie's. And if they didn't, this bodes ill of their campaigns as well.
I think she mentioned Yang as well. So I'm wondering if those who have dropped out and endorsed Biden were aware of this and still endorsed him.
 

MizerMan

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Oct 25, 2017
8,483
I just don't know that we have evidence of this working on a national level for a Dem


All we know is older voters prefer Biden to Bernie in massive numbers. We don't know that they will decide not to participate in a GE if Bernie is the candidate.
specifically. GOP of course don't give a shit.
If Bernie's performance in FL and other southern states are an indication, he clearly has a problem with older voters. They may have a problem with Trump, but would they bother to vote for Bernie? If he loses a good chunk of them in a GE, he's done. Sanders would have to overperform greatly with younger voters to have a chance at that point.
 

less

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Oct 25, 2017
4,877
I feel like this thread is existing in another dimension. I haven’t seen or heard anyone talk about this Biden stuff not on the internet. He isn’t going to step down, it’s kinda weird to see people saying here he has to or they expect that in any way.
Give it time for the media to look into it...if they feel comfortable in reporting this story then it will explode.
 

plagiarize

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Oct 25, 2017
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I feel like this thread is existing in another dimension. I haven’t seen or heard anyone talk about this Biden stuff not on the internet. He isn’t going to step down, it’s kinda weird to see people saying here he has to or they expect that in any way.
I didn't want to be in a position to encourage people to get out there and vote for the *other* sexual assault guy.

I know that if the victim can't corroborate her story (which realistically, how the hell is she supposed to do that anyway) that people will ignore it and a month after the story hits the major papers that no one will give a shit.

But, you know, I hope for a better response than 'exactly what Donald Trump does' when faced with this stuff. *Hope*. I sure as shit don't expect it.
 

Blue Skies

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Mar 27, 2019
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If Bernie's performance in FL and other southern states are an indication, he clearly has a problem with older voters. They may have a problem with Trump, but would they bother to vote for Bernie? If he loses a good chunk of them in a GE, he's done. Sanders would have to overperform greatly with younger voters to have a chance at that point.
I think if older whites people are faced with the choice of Bernie or trump, they’ll swallow their dislike of trump and go for him.
 
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