Updating my post about the Senate in 2020: presuming Sinema wins, and Nelson loses Florida due to Repubshenanigans (and Hyde-Smith will win MS-special), that puts the Dem caucus at 47 and Republicans at 53.
In 2020, 34 Senate seats are up for the vote (which includes replacing the resigning Arizona Senator Jon Kyl, who himself had replaced McCain) -- i.e., 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans, bringing the preliminary total, as at November 3, 2020 (barring any resignations/indictments) to:
D - 35
R - 31
So Dems need to gain at least 15, e.g. holding all of their 12, plus flipping 3 of the 22 Republican seats. (They'd need 16 if Trump wins re-election.)
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Safe Republican: -- AK (Sullivan), AR (Cotton), LA (Cassidy), OK (Inhofe), SD (Rounds), WV (Capito), WY (Enzi).
Probable R: -- NE (Sasse), ID (Risch), KY (Turtle), MT (Daines), SC (Graham), TN (Alexander), TX (Cornyn).
Competitive R: -- AZ (ret. Kyl), CO (Gardner), GA (Perdue), IA (Ernst), KS (Roberts), ME (Collins), NC (Tillis).
Competitive D: -- AL (Jones), MI (Peters), MN (Smith).
Probable D: -- NH (Jeanne Shaheen), VA (Warner).
Safe Democratic: -- DE (Coons), NJ (Booker), IL (Durbin), MA (Markey), NM (T. Udall), OR (Merkley), RI (Reed).
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The THREE best chances would probably be Dems picking up:
1. NC (In 2014, Thom Tillis beat Kay Hagan 48.8% to 47.3%);
2. CO (In 2014, Cory Gardner beat Mark Udall 48.2% to 46.3%);
3. AZ (given the strong Democratic showing this year, that bodes well for John McCain's former 'maverick' seat flipping blue, too).
Now, they may need one or two buffer wins, if Doug Jones's unexpected tenure is cut short in Alabama (Jeff Sessions is probably going to run), and likewise if Pence retains veto power upon re-election (Jesus please save us). The best shots are:
4. IA (Joni Ernst beat Bruce Braley 52.1% to 43.8%; this was a Dem seat the preceding three decades!);
5. ME (Susan Collins controversially supported Kavanaugh, and may be primaried by Trump diehard Max Linn);
6. GA (David Perdue beat Michelle Nunn 52.9% to 45.2%);
7. KS (Pat Roberts, who'll be 84 if he runs, beat Independent Greg Orman 53.1% to 42.5% -- with an inspiring candidate this could be doable);
8. TX (I'm tossing Texas in here just in case O'Rourke decides to run again, especially given the impressive legwork from this year).
These 12 Dems and candidates for these 8 states need to get cracking.
