Realistically will Yu be able to put out so many games? I don't think Shenmue 3 is going to sell enough to fund another game.
There are so many factors to this that we can only weakly speculate at best. Given its
relatively smaller budget, the game likely does not have to sell as much as you might expect to break even and make profit. Across PC and PS4 i think it has the ability to sell well over 1 million, and I think it's possible for that to be a success for the game given its
relatively small budget and smaller team.
Shibuya Productions helped fund the game from its inception; Deep Silver helped them make it a bigger game and achieve more; Epic gave them a lot of money to put it on their store; Sony will probably have additional input on the marketing of the PS4 version. Next game around, you will have money made from S3 plus third party investment because publishers not named Sega are interested in supporting the IP. Sequel development would also be a lot more streamlined since they have the experience the look back on, the engine and technology built up, and the gameplay nailed down with the only thing needed to do is making improvements here and there based on feedback.
Let's see if people would actually be interested in more Shenmue after 3. I don't think especially after 3, anymore than a couple thousand people are gonna actually support the franchise just like Shenmue HD. There's no guarantee of financial security/support
Shenmue 3 has just been an internet snowball that people got behind because of legacy just like The Last Guardian from the few people that actually played and enjoyed Shenmue back in the day. Once the wave is over, it's over just like TLG. No way this series has 4-5 games left in it
First up, a couple of thousand units… I stop you right there. That is absolutely ridiculous and I'll have to discount your opinion right there if you think Shenmue III isn't going to sell more than 2K units across physical and digital stores.
Seconds, nobody is saying another 4-5 games. I think the scope allows for a total of 4-5 games in the series. After condensing the original 16 chapters to 11 chapters, Yu Suzuki has said that
he wouldn't mind wrapping up the series after 4-5 games, and that sounds about right. S4 by 2022 and S5 by 2025 if all goes to plan. The Last Guardian is a bad comparison to draw - sold in the
same ballpark as the previous Team Ico games which continued to be green-lit, but it's also a new IP, standalone vision and it will never get a sequel.
We think this way because it's not going to sell to the degree that they are wanting and they poisoned the well by how they have treated backers. I don't have any faith in them to deliver anything after shenmue 3.
Do you know what they're wanting or expecting it to sell? How do you know how much they'd have to sell to cover the budget not accounting for money made through Kickstarter? It could do very well for them and if it's a rock solid Shenmue sequel I think people will want to see more of that despite their gripes with how the Kickstarter has been handled. I doubt the next one will even need to be crowdfunded.