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legacyzero

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
4,252
Some of the Progrssive talking heads are having a bit of an issue with Beto. Like, ok fine. But I'll tell them the same way I'll tell Hillary-crats still wanting her to run.

Do you wanna be right? Or do you wanna fucking win?
 

iksenpets

Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,501
Dallas, TX
Those screaming moderate are not being logical. They ignore the fact he is pretty much identical in policy with ALLLLLL the major 2020 players outside Bernie/Warren.

Its just that Bernie fans most fear him so they will repeat moderate over and over and over and not say a peep about Kamala/Gillibrand/Klobucher/etc until they see them as a threat to Bernie.


He is absolutely not out of line in the mainstream ideology of the elected members of the party, aka the non Bernie wing.

So, Beto is very much a liberal, in the mainstream of the Dem party, like you said. He's probably marginally more conservative when it comes to actual votes than someone like Harris, and a decent amount more conservative rhetorically, because, well, he's from Texas. His language is always touched with a bit of Obama-esque bipartisanship fetishism.

I'm just talking about his actual ability to win a primary, where I struggle to see his path. Like you said, Bernie people are scared of him, because they see Obama all over again, swooning for style while missing that there's no leftism to the substance. And maybe that charisma will be enough to win over enough of the less plugged-in Bernie supporters that the protestations of the hardcore won't matter. But if he's pulling neither votes from the Bernie left, nor from black constituencies, what's his base? If it's just non-leftist white Dems, he probably comes second to Kamala, maybe third to her and Bernie. Maybe if he could get a surge of new Hispanic participation in the primaries, but his results in Texas suggest he doesn't actually have an above-average amount of pull among Latinos to do that.
 
OP
OP

Deleted member 5666

user requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
14,753
There's nothing wrong with being a moderate. "Moderate" is not a bad word. I'm not attacking O'Rourke.

I'm just saying that it's a bad time for white male moderates in America on an electability front and I was supporting the first message I quoted. It's a roadblock.
The isssue is....he isnt anything close to a moderate. He is a mainstream Democrat who votes consistent with your average Dem in congress.

That isn't moderate.
 

Deleted member 22490

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
9,237
Okay, what can he do to help black people in America realistically? Things he can actually do with an at best 51 seat Dem majority senate which is the realistic optimistic senate outcome?

Things that are realistic with the congress the next President will have. Free college is not one of those things nor is Medicare for All.
What could Beto do to realistically help black people in America?
 

Kirblar

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
30,744
So, Beto is very much a liberal, in the mainstream of the Dem party, like you said. He's probably marginally more conservative when it comes to actual votes than someone like Harris, and a decent amount more conservative rhetorically, because, well, he's from Texas. His language is always touched with a bit of Obama-esque bipartisanship fetishism.

I'm just talking about his actual ability to win a primary, where I struggle to see his path. Like you said, Bernie people are scared of him, because they see Obama all over again, swooning for style while missing that there's no leftism to the substance. And maybe that charisma will be enough to win over enough of the less plugged-in Bernie supporters that the protestations of the hardcore won't matter. But if he's pulling neither votes from the Bernie left, nor from black constituencies, what's his base? If it's just non-leftist white Dems, he probably comes second to Kamala, maybe third to her and Bernie. Maybe if he could get a surge of new Hispanic participation in the primaries, but his results in Texas suggest he doesn't actually have an above-average amount of pull among Latinos to do that.
There is a very good chance that Biden isn't running. The NYTimes had a well-sourced "state of the invis primarily" piece a month or so back, and the quotes they were getting on Biden very much sounded like "He's realizing his body is literally just not capable of withstanding a national campaign." That's the opening.
 

TarNaru33

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,045
Some of the Progrssive talking heads are having a bit of an issue with Beto. Like, ok fine. But I'll tell them the same way I'll tell Hillary-crats still wanting her to run.

Do you wanna be right? Or do you wanna fucking win?

Both... I was right about Hillary in her being a weaker candidate and we lost anyways.

It isnt about being right or wrong, it's about trying to get this country to its peers and better the lives of its citizens.

I dont see negotiation from the middle as the way to do that.
 

Autodidact

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,729
That was a quicker than usual response from you

šŸ¤”šŸ˜

Have you SEEN #ImWithHer Twitter?
I'm not even sure what that first line means.

But no, I don't spend my time scouring Twitter looking for random, irrelevant people whose opinions I can pretend are commonplace so I can have something to be angry about.
 

iksenpets

Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,501
Dallas, TX
There is a very good chance that Biden isn't running. The NYTimes had a well-sourced "state of the invis primarily" piece a month or so back, and the quotes they were getting on Biden very much sounded like "He's realizing his body is literally just not capable of withstanding a national campaign." That's the opening.

So, I guess the thing is, I don't think Biden would've survived a competitive primary either. He polls highest now off of name recognition, but he's too normal for the Bernie left, and doesn't have enough trust in minority communities to convince them not to just go for Harris or Booker. Beto's only path is in a hope that the Bernie folks fail to rally around anyone else, and he's able to sell them on "I'm not a leftist, but at least I'm kind of outsidery" better than anyone else.
 

TarNaru33

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,045
Okay, what can he do to help black people in America realistically? Things he can actually do with an at best 51 seat Dem majority senate which is the realistic optimistic senate outcome?

Things that are realistic with the congress the next President will have. Free college is not one of those things nor is Medicare for All.

This is a weird question.. that issue will be roadblocks any Democrat President will have to overcome. So why use it against Bernie?

Like someone can say the same thing about Harris or Beto
 
Oct 26, 2017
17,383
Beto/Gillum would be a waste of one or the other; they'd both make an exciting lead but whoever gets the VP spot would be useless. Both of them are fairly green and none of them have the experience to make for an effective VP. Neither of them know how to work legislation/nominations through the Senate, neither of them have seniority or influence to counterbalance a lack of experience, and they also both lost their respective races; it's gotta be one or the other.

Think JFK/LBJ or Obama/Biden
 

captive

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,000
Houston
I think this might be overestimating what Beto can do in a primary. Beto is well positioned, but his position is due pretty much entirely due to personal charm. Sans that charm, an honest assessment is that he's probably the rightmost of the frontrunners. And the similarities to Obama make people draw comparisons to that, where personal charm was able to smooth over Obama's pretty obvious centrism and turn him into the candidate of the insurgent left (combined with the Iraq War politics of the time), but I think that's a way harder trick to pull now, because the left is much more awoken to their power than they were in 2008 ā€” they no longer feel they have to pick their preferred Democrat, but that a candidate of their own choosing can win in their own right ā€” and Beto won't be running against someone with as much left-wing skepticism as Hillary had. He also won't have the reinforcements from minority voters that Obama had, since Harris and/or Booker will have a lock on that.

So basically, without that, he has to hope that Bernie doesn't run to unite the left behind him, that he's able to leverage his charisma and the left's distrust around someone like Harris to rally the left to him, despite being substantively to his competitors' right, and that that coalition is enough to beat back Harris' minority-led coalition and not be too chipped away at by others like Gillibrand or Klobuchar or whomever else. Otherwise, Beto is just the candidate of non-leftist white Democrats, which is not a winning coalition.
1. "like yea if you take away his charming personality he kind of sucks." what kind of non sense is this? you cant just take away a candidates likeability, some would say thats probably one of the most important things to getting elected president.
2. can we stop with the bolded? Assuming how entire blocks of minorities will vote or that they will automatically only vote for the minority?

I doubt booker even runs, but if he does he i doubt he lasts very long. Was not impressed at all by his performance during the Kavanaugh hearings.
 

Deleted member 4346

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,976
Some of the Progrssive talking heads are having a bit of an issue with Beto. Like, ok fine. But I'll tell them the same way I'll tell Hillary-crats still wanting her to run.

Do you wanna be right? Or do you wanna fucking win?

Yeah, I think I agree with this. Beto isn't my first or even fifth choice but if we need another empty-suit but charismatic mainstream Dem to course-correct after the Trump disaster then I would prefer that to a vicious no-holds-barred primary that damages our party's unity for the general election. My patience isn't endless with the Dems and shitty half-measures but Trump is too dangerous. Ultimate goal is getting him out.
 

Kirblar

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
30,744
So, I guess the thing is, I don't think Biden would've survived a competitive primary either. He polls highest now off of name recognition, but he's too normal for the Bernie left, and doesn't have enough trust in minority communities to convince them not to just go for Harris or Booker. Beto's only path is in a hope that the Bernie folks fail to rally around anyone else, and he's able to sell them on "I'm not a leftist, but at least I'm kind of outsidery" better than anyone else.
Bernie's coalition was ideological lefties, young people, rural people, and independents. Only the first was ideologically attached to the agenda as a group. And the third/fourth are groups that are to the right of the median Dem on social issues. (good rundown on raw data here)

The thing about 2016 is that it was not really ideology that was the biggest gap between predicting Clinton/Sanders support. (see: figure 11 here- https://www.voterstudygroup.org/publications/2016-elections/political-divisions-in-2016-and-beyond ) We saw this play out in the Lipinski/Newman primary, which was a race 100% about ideology, in which the voting map did not look a thing like the Clinton/Sanders primary 2 years earlier. The battle lines for an actual left vs center primary are not the battle lines we were seeing in 2016- they were more complicated than that.
figure11_drutman_e4aabc39aab12644609701bbacdff252.png
Framing Beto as "the center" in a hypothetical 2020 primary field is a fundamental misunderstanding of what the coalitions in both '08 and '16 looked like and what sorts of things were actually going on, because in both cases it was a multifaceted coalition with diverse ideological components.
 

legacyzero

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
4,252
Oh, you sweet summer child. You will understand soon what many of us were telling you the last few years.
Nah, how bout now. Otherwise how cohld I possibly take you seriously, with that obvious snark.

At this point they must be trolling or their perception completely fails to conform to reality
Thats ok, Kirblar is here to help us understand that Hillary NAFTA TPP ACA WALL STREET IRAQ WAR Clinton is a "Progressive".
 
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Kirblar

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
30,744
Nah, how bout now. Otherwise how cohld I possibly take you seriously, with that obvious snark.
I'll PM you. It's not meant as snark, it's a "you're now seeing what many of us have been dealing with for years."
Thats ok, Kirblar is here to help us understand that Hillary NAFTA TPP ACA WALL STREET IRAQ WAR Clinton is a "Progressive".
No. I would not give her that label. (She is also very much not a centrist, not even Biden is that out of the big mainstream names, which is the point I was trying to make.)
 
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Armadilo

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
9,877
Obama probably felt like he has to take a bigger role to help back a candidate that can actually beat trump, better to have one early than later
 

rycisko

Banned
Nov 1, 2017
489
I love Beto but the L to Cruz will get brought up A LOT and I dont know if "the degenerates" will be smart enough to look past what state he lost in.

Still pulling for Kamala Harris as the lead. It's time the women in this nation get their voice and who better to give it back at Trump than her? Also dont have any faith in Trump not running his mouth and saying something stupid and sexist in a debate. Could backfire very easily.

Harris/Beto/Booker for me
 

Kangi

Profile Styler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,949
He's neither my first nor second choice but if he makes it that much less likely that our nominee is freaking Biden or something then I'm of the "Sure why not" group.
 

CrocM

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,628
Vote in the primary for the candidate you like best, and regardless of who wins vote D in the general. I just don't have the energy or mental health anymore to deep dive into polls, likability or speculate at who has the best chance mathematically against Trump.
 

rjinaz

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
28,410
Phoenix
Bernie's cultists certainly played a part in Trump's election.

Some of them voted for him. Some of them stayed home. Some of them convinced others to stay home.
More Bernie voters voted for Clinton than Clinton voters voted for Obama. Point is, in a democracy where people are free to run, this is a normal occurrence. There was nothing special about Bernie voters.
 

Piecake

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,298
I find it interesting that we just had an election where center-left dems outperformed progressive dems in competitive races by a decent margin and some people in this thread are still demanding a progressive candidate.

I find that kind of insane as I am not really willing to gamble on another 4 years of Trump.
 

sphagnum

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
16,058
I vote we stop using variable and meaningless terms like "moderate", "centrist", "progressive" etc. and force all politicians to take the political compass test and make the results public.
 

MisterSnrub

Member
Mar 10, 2018
5,907
Someplace Far Away
I believe Beto is somebody who would take on climate change, election reform and Medicaid expansion. He's not the leftiest leftist but with a good congress by his side he could achieve a lot. People might be disappointed that he's a little pro-corporate, but when it comes to global warming I don't care how it happens. I just want a livable planet. Right now I think he's the most viable and exciting candidate, though he isn't my favourite.

That favourite is Stacey Abrams, who would make an amazing running mate for Beto if she doesn't run or secure the nomination for herself. She is enormously likable, an amazingly stirring speaker with buckets of the personality some say Beto lacks (also the experience). Her not-a-concession speech was such a perfect and honest distillation of this point in history - everybody else, even Beto, has sanitised their language to some degree - and I would like to see a great deal more from her. Definitely a dark horse to watch out for 2020, if she runs
 

rjinaz

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
28,410
Phoenix
I believe Beto is somebody who would take on climate change, election reform and Medicaid expansion. He's not the leftiest leftist but with a good congress by his side he could achieve a lot. People might be disappointed that he's a little pro-corporate, but when it comes to global warming I don't care how it happens. I just want a livable planet. Right now I think he's the most viable and exciting candidate, though he isn't my favourite.

That favourite is Stacey Abrams, who would make an amazing running mate for Beto if she doesn't run or secure the nomination for herself. She is enormously likable, an amazingly stirring speaker with buckets of the personality some say Beto lacks (also the experience). Her not-a-concession speech was such a perfect and honest distillation of this point in history - everybody else, even Beto, has sanitised their language to some degree - and I would like to see a great deal more from her. Definitely a dark horse to watch out for 2020, if she runs
Definitely down for Beto/Abrams
 

Game2Death

Member
Oct 25, 2017
157
Bernie's cultists certainly played a part in Trump's election.

Some of them voted for him. Some of them stayed home. Some of them convinced others to stay home.

In that survey, Schaffner found that 12 percent of people who voted in the primary and reported voting for Sanders also voted in November and reported voting for Trump.

There is no way to know whether 12 percent or 6 percent or some other estimate is The Truth, and there are enough differences among these surveys that we cannot easily pinpoint why the numbers differ. So we should take these estimates with some caution.

Another useful comparison is to 2008, when the question was whether Clinton supporters would vote for Barack Obama or John McCain (R-Ariz.) Based on data from the 2008 Cooperative Campaign Analysis Project, a YouGov survey that also interviewed respondents multiple times during the campaign, 24 percent of people who supported Clinton in the primary as of March 2008 then reported voting for McCain in the general election.

An analysis of a different 2008 survey by the political scientists Michael Henderson, Sunshine Hillygus and Trevor Thompson produced a similar estimate: 25 percent. (Unsurprisingly, Clinton voters who supported McCain were more likely to have negative views of African Americans, relative to those who supported Obama.)


WP Source

Can we stop with this claim please.
 

brainchild

Independent Developer
Verified
Nov 25, 2017
9,482
That favourite is Stacey Abrams, who would make an amazing running mate for Beto if she doesn't run or secure the nomination for herself.

If she is in the running, I'd rather have Beto as her running mate. She is an incredibly articulate speaker and would absolutely slay during the primary and presidential debates. She just exudes confidence and is as smart as whip.

Now I'm mad that you mentioned her because I'm getting all excited for something that is likely never going to happen. šŸ˜«
 

Indiana Jones

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,177
I find it interesting that we just had an election where center-left dems outperformed progressive dems in competitive races by a decent margin and some people in this thread are still demanding a progressive candidate.

I find that kind of insane as I am not really willing to gamble on another 4 years of Trump.

People see what they want to see.
 

Kirblar

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
30,744
People see what they want to see.
Amy McGrath losing in KY was an unfortunate, horrifying lesson. Incredible candidate. Ran to the left of the other guy in the primary, who was also a great candidate. And still lost.

I expected losses elsewhere from that phenomenon, but I was not expecting her to be among them.
 

MisterSnrub

Member
Mar 10, 2018
5,907
Someplace Far Away
If she is in the running, I'd rather have Beto as her running mate. She is an incredibly articulate speaker and would absolutely slay during the primary and presidential debates. She just exudes confidence and is as smart as whip.

Now I'm mad that you mentioned her because I'm getting all excited for something that is likely never going to happen. šŸ˜«
I dont think Beto would make an interesting or worthwhile VP, that's the funny thing. But anywhere Abrams lands on the ticket is golden for me. I think Beto/Abrams overall is the most exciting/worthwhile ticket, maybe even a 2008 beater.

Man I am actually going to go live in the woods if we end up with something like Bloomberg/Kerry. There's so much talent on the table right now we can't afford to waste.
 

Autodidact

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,729
Amy McGrath losing in KY was an unfortunate, horrifying lesson. Incredible candidate. Ran to the left of the other guy in the primary, who was also a great candidate. And still lost.

I expected losses elsewhere from that phenomenon, but I was not expecting her to be among them.
KY-06, PA-01, and NE-02 are the most glaring examples.

We could've had all three of those seats.