We came from "Game demos halve sales" to games that sell much more thanks to Gamepass

[Era of not Yakuza]

Seven years ago, we talked about how creating demos could hurt sales. It's funny if you think some companies (Capcom) have literally tried to sell demos.
Now in the age of Streaming, social media and Game Pass we have games available for "free" that are driving consumers to actually buy that game and keep.
Who would have thought? I wouldn't, and that is cool. This industry is big enough to accept "crazy" ideas.



He starts at 10:00

News: Game demos halve sales, new data suggests - CVG UK

Publishers and developers are discovering that game demos on consoles can have a negative effect on game sales, according to newly released data.

web.archive.org

Publishers and developers are discovering that game demos on consoles can have a negative effect on game sales, according to newly released data.


Game designer Jesse Schell made the revelation during an industry keynote at the Gamelab conference in Barcelona on Friday, where he presented information gathered by analytics firm EEDAR.


The presentation slide suggests that the average Xbox 360 game that is promoted by a release trailer, but has no demo, on average sells about 525,000 units after six months.


But the average Xbox 360 game that carries both a demo and trailer will sell about 250,000 units in the same period.


A game with neither, meanwhile, on average sells less than 100,000 units.


The major caveat to the data is the unanswered question of whether game demos actively discourage sales, or if the best-selling games don't carry demos in the first place. Call of Duty game demos, for instance, are issued several months after the full retail game release.


Another limitation on the data is that it only examines Xbox 360 games.


In February, Schell gave an presentation at DICE 2013 claimed that games which sell the most are ones that build an expectation in players, that people wanted to try, but that didn't offer them the opportunity to do so through a demo.


"You mean we spent all this money making a demo and getting it out there, and it cut our sales in half? Yes, that's exactly what happened to you," he said.

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Demos Are Great For Gamers, Not-So-Great For Game Sales

Giving players a chance to try before they buy is a noble gesture, but it may not be a wise. According to research presented by game designer Jesse Schell at the Gamelab conference in Barcelona today, a demo can cut into a game's sales by more than 50 percent, CVG reports.

kotaku.com

Phil Spencer: Game Pass leads to more game sales

This past weekend's X018 event was, arguably, a two-hour long advertisement for Game Pass, and given what Microsoft gam…

www.gamesindustry.biz

Descenders' weekly sales increased five times thanks to Xbox Game Pass

No More Robots has renewed the licensing deal for Rage Squid's Descenders on Xbox Game Pass, due to the huge sales bene…

www.gamesindustry.biz

We can conclude that it is all about awareness. More people playing, more people watching and the games ends up in the hand of those who wouldn't either sub GP or buy the game otherwise.

 

[boris_feinbrand]

Only bad demos decrease sales. Always been that way. But to some executives an informed consumer is an abject horror.

 

[MJForum Poster]

Not sure if you are trying to make a point against Game Pass or what. But I don't think it's hard to see that for games with multiplayer components (like Sea of Thieves), more players in total is good for any player, whether they got it via Game Pass or bought the game on Steam/XBox.

I've also championed games that I got to play on Game Pass, like Ashen and Mutant Year Zero, to my friends who would otherwise have not even given them the time of day.

 

[ItchyTasty]

It takes a time for games to click sometimes and if you already payed for it then you might as well get into it. Easier to ditch a demo.

 

[Era of not Yakuza]

Not sure if you are trying to make a point against Game Pass or what

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What?
No no no
game pass is awesome
I just want to point how wrong people can be about consumer behavior. Like when used games would destroy the world

 

[AntiMacro]

A demo lets them play and maybe get their fill of it. I know there are a few fishing games that we just played the demo of and never felt the need to buy the game.

With GamePass people on your friends list see you playing the game and it incentivizes them to buy it and play.

 

[Cactuar]

I'm not sure that there's concrete evidence of either. I would think it would come down to the quality of the demo. FF7R's demo did not halve sales.

 

[Squirrel09]

What?
No no no
game pass is awesome
I just want to point how wrong people can be about consumer behavior. Like when used games would destroy the world

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I think it's obvious that consumer trends would change over 7 years (2013-2020). Also, you pay for gamepass, you don't pay for demos. So with gamepass you've already made some type of transaction.

 

[GringoSuave89]

Only bad demos decrease sales. Always been that way. But to some executives an informed consumer is an abject horror.

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One and done.

If you make a game that I feel I will get all the enjoyment out of it just with the demo, that's on you.

Edit: oh wow his comments on 5.1 surround... What a boob.

 

[Lobster Roll]

Only bad demos decrease sales. Always been that way. But to some executives an informed consumer is an abject horror.

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First post absolutely nails it.

 

[CharlesAznable]

Only bad demos decrease sales. Always been that way. But to some executives an informed consumer is an abject horror.

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Yup. I used to never be into Tactical rpgs, but then I played the Fire Emblem awakening demo on a complete whim and that made me go out and get the game (which I loved). Now I'm a fan of both the franchise and the genre as a whole, all because of that 1 demo.

 

[Aaron D.]

Only bad demos decrease sales. Always been that way. But to some executives an informed consumer is an abject horror.

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I'll never forget how over-the-moon hyped I was after playing BioShock 1 and Arkham Asylum demos pre-launch.

 

[Praedyth]

I want numbers for current gen games on Game Pass, OP. I think some Microsoft exec said that but never provided sales number inside the Xbox ecosystem. It would be nice to have them.

 

[Lord Azrael]

What?
No no no
game pass is awesome
I just want to point how wrong people can be about consumer behavior. Like when used games would destroy the world

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People on this board love to invent behaviors and personas that aren't rooted in any logic, facts or data, merely in what makes sense to them personally. You'll see bullshit like "Parents aren't gonna go out and buy little Timmy this or that..." or "This won't satisfy the type of consumer that wants [specific thing that I want]". It's often complete nonsense fantasy.

 

[Lant_War]

I think Game Pass works better for that because I know I'll be able to play throught the full game if I want. I never get too invested in demos because they all end as soon as it starts getting good.

 

[pswii60]

Both can be true.

A shit demo will certainly put me off buying a game. On the flipside I've discovered some real gems via Game Pass and told friends etc about them.

 

[Midgarian]

Game demoes should be mandatory in this digital day and age. Amazon Kindle style.

 

[infinityBCRT]

Only bad demos decrease sales. Always been that way. But to some executives an informed consumer is an abject horror.

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I've always thought the Castlevania Lords of Shadow demo was one of the most hurtful demos to sales in the history of games. The game starts off extremely dull but then keeps getting better from there.

 

[Era of not Yakuza]

I want numbers for current gen games on Game Pass, OP. I think some Microsoft exec said that but never provided sales number inside the Xbox ecosystem. It would be nice to have them.

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To be fair, we only have the Top Sellers of Steam and interviews given by some developers, no real number with research to confirm them.

 

[dgamemaster]

Only bad demos decrease sales. Always been that way. But to some executives an informed consumer is an abject horror.

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I'd disagree partially. While it is true that demos that are bad will always decrease sales, sometimes if they make a demo that's really, really good, people will see no real reason to buy the full version since the demo version already provides a good experience on its own.

Puyo Puyo Tetris demo for example, already provides essentially a free version of Puyo Puyo and multiplayer Tetris, since you can play multiplayer. Sure, the full game has stuff like the Story Mode, online, and single-player focused challenges, but since those modes are just essentially variants on the same core gameplay loop, the people that just want to be able to play Puyo Puyo with their friends, or the people that want to play Multiplayer Tetris, they no longer have a reason to buy the full version since the demo gives them what they want. Puyo Puyo Tetris had a demo that was way too generous, and while that makes it a good demo, it isn't exactly one that would increase sales.

Game demoes should be mandatory in this digital day and age. Amazon Kindle style.

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The Ouya did that initially. Look where it ended up. Not a lot of developers will want to spend the resources needed to create a full length demo. Maybe a free timed trial would be nice, but a full demo might be a bit too much for developers.

 

[Oreiller]

I think Benji-Sales said on twitter that the FF7R demo led to a huge spike in preorders when it dropped.
I get how a demo would be hurtful though, some games just don't demo well.

 

[Era of not Yakuza]

I think it's obvious that consumer trends would change over 7 years (2013-2020). Also, you pay for gamepass, you don't pay for demos. So with gamepass you've already made some type of transaction.

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That is fair but we also have the phenomenon of people buying those games, even when they are available on GP.

 

[boris_feinbrand]

I'd disagree partially. While it is true that demos that are bad will always decrease sales, sometimes if they make a demo that's really, really good, people will see no real reason to buy the full version since the demo version already provides a good experience on its own.

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Then it's not a good demo. A good demo needs to leave you wanting for more. Like a good aperitive it needs to Stoke the hunger not still it.

 

[hey it's that dog]

The claim that demos decrease sales has poor evidence, because not every game has a demo. If every game had a demo, then we'd at least have a complete dataset on which to base such a claim. Similarly, unless we have sales data from every game on gamepass (or at least a large, random sample of games on gamepass), it's impossible to draw conclusions about gamepass's overall effect on sales.

Additionally, how can anyone claim a game sold more even though it was on gamepass when we don't have an alternate universe in which that same game was not on gamepass for comparison? I'd take any such claims with a grain of salt because of these empirical shortcomings. We're limited to looking for sales bumps for games that were available for a while, then went to gamepass later on. Gamepass may increase sales simply via visibility and awareness, as the library, especially on PC, is relatively small so each individual game is less likely to be completely lost in the crowd. What happens when this library becomes huge? Will games that would have sold poorly still get a boost?

There are so many questions about the model that as casual observers we will never be able to actually answer.


edit: if anyone can tell me more about the methodology used to analyze sales I'm open to corrections

 

[zoodoo]

If I develop a game I would be scared to publish a demo. It can badly represent your game and hurt sales. A good game can have a bad demo or vice versa. I don't think it is worth it for a dev to put time in a demo. You have to do a separate build for it and all. A time trial of the full game might be a better approach.

 

[boris_feinbrand]

If I develop a game I would be scared to publish a demo. It can badly represent your game and hurt sales. A good game can have a bad demo or vice versa. I don't think it is worth it for a dev to put time in a demo. You have to do a separate build for it and all. A time trial of the full game might be a better approach.

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That's why Gamepass is a brilliant solution. At least for now... Let's wait to see how it performs once the inevitable saturation sets in... Curation might solve that maybe.

 

[StallionDan]

Only bad demos decrease sales. Always been that way. But to some executives an informed consumer is an abject horror.

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Are there actually bad demos though? Most I've ever played have been pretty representative of the final game.

I'd argue a lot of sales come from hype (which is why shit like Anthem still sold a shit load) and even good demos that are fully representative just present reality, which is likely well below what hype imagined.

I can't think of many demos that weren't very representative, at least in terms of good games with bad demos.

Plenty bad games are misrepresented in demos, RE3 Remake made it seem like had exploration of the streets, but the 3 or so streets in the demo are literally it.

 

[Deleted member 9290]

I was so hyped for just cause 2 that I took my Xbox to my friends house just to download the demo. I played the demo for hours and it only got me even more hyped.

I loved demos.

 

[Era of not Yakuza]

I was so hyped for just cause 2 that I took my Xbox to my friends house just to download the demo. I played the demo for hours and it only got me even more hyped.

I loved demos.

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I bought Arkham Asylum because I loved the demo so much, thought the combat was insase