What are the actual odds of a another country using Nukes again?

[I Am Captain America]

I was in one of my classes earlier and my professor believes it can honestly happen again since we were close about 30 years ago. made me nervous thinking about it. Thoughts?

he also showed this scene from this movie I never heard of

 

[Officer Big Mac]

It depends how big of a possible nuke area were talking about.

 

[Hollywood Duo]

0.1% chance.

 

[gdt]

I mean that's basically the most important post world war II question that's dominated world politics and shaped the entire history of the world since then.

It's complicated.

 

[Pein]

How long till we can make a dr Manhattan?

 

[MrRob]

I want to think less than zero due to MAD


But we've currently got at least two completely crazy fuckers with potential control of them

 

[Transistor]

The only way to win is not to play

 

[Deleted member 29676]

It is far more likely a non-state actor will use a nuclear weapon.

 

[Just Some Rando]

he also showed this scene from this movie I never heard of

Click to shrink...

You should watch that, and even better... Threads.

 

[Carbon]

I think a rogue detonation is much more likely than a state-launched one. Pretty much every nuclear-capable country (outside of maybe North Korea) knows that nukes are a zero sum game. At best, they are a deterrent.

A dirty bomb is probably even more likely than a real nuke though.

 

[Hollywood Duo]

It is far more likely a non-state actor will use a nuclear weapon.

Click to shrink...

I should rewatch Austin Powers

 

[UberTag]

I want to think less than zero due to MAD

Click to shrink...

That logic doesn't exactly apply when you now have foreign nations with nuclear arsenals getting compromised by rogue agents.

Russia orders Compromised Foreign Leader to nuke Country X. Country X responds by nuking Country Y.
Where's the fallout for Russia? They didn't launch the nukes. Country Y did.

 

[Burly]

Any time soon? Who knows. An infinite amount of time into the future? 100%.

The world as a whole in never going to get rid of all of them, and there have been enough close calls in the last 50 years that one of them is going to eventually slip through and some nation or organization is going to use a nuke.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls

 

[Deleted member 6949]

Honestly I would love it if a nuke dropped right where I live. No mess or cleanup or people having to deal with my belongings or anything. If I could just be deleted from existence that would be great.

 

[Plum]

Don't watch Threads, OP. It's the British version of 'The Day After' and it's much, much more depressing and dire. If you're curious, here's that film's 'nuke' scene:



As for the OP question, the thing about nukes is that their very existence makes the possibility of usage way too high. All it really requires is one crazed leader with nothing to lose and enough of a chip on their shoulder. Either that or an escalation of conflict that makes their use almost inevitable.

Even then I'll echo the same points being made in that it's much more likely that a rogue party will use one than a country.

 

[gdt]

It is far more likely a non-state actor will use a nuclear weapon.

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I must finished reading Fear, by Bob Woodword, and there's a little blurb where Obama tells Woodword that what really keeps him up at night is the though that a nuclear bomb guess off in an American city, and what that would do to the world.

Even a "small" one, would upend the world order. Like, what happens after that?

 

[Hey Please]

It will most likely happen within the next half a century unless dwindling resources allied to runaway climate change (that will keep on having dire effects on not only currently livable areas but also the global economy) can be rectified in some significant way. Given the cyclical human nature, the rise of right wing populist, xenophobic, tribal governments in various (currently) economic prosperous countries will be inevitable. The borders of some countries may look different and installation of new protectorate states may also see made flesh in return for continued supply of aforementioned finite resources post war.

 

[MrRob]

That logic doesn't exactly apply when you now have foreign nations with nuclear arsenals getting compromised by rogue agents.

Russia orders Compromised Foreign Leader to nuke Country X. Country X responds by nuking Country Y.
Where's the fallout for Russia? They didn't launch the nukes. Country Y did.

Click to shrink...

Very true and it's certainly more plausible that a non state would be the next to use a nuke.

 

[FUME5]

I think we may see a dirty bomb being used in our lifetimes.

 

[Mona]

100%

its going to happen eventually

 

[gdt]

Honestly I would love it if a nuke dropped right where I live. No mess or cleanup or people having to deal with my belongings or anything. If I could just be deleted from existence that would be great.

Click to shrink...

Damn bro cheer up. RE2 1/25

 

[Steel]

All it would take is a war between nuclear powers. Of course, that's why a war between nuclear powers probably won't happen. I'd say about a 3% chance that there will be another nuke used between now and space colonies.

 

[MistaTwo]

I don't think we will see a country drop one, but I am honestly surprised (happily so) that we haven't had some kind of dirty bomb terrorist plot.
Some of the stories about the unaccounted for nukes out there following the Soviet collapse are scary. I believe there are only like 50 or so that are considered missing, but that's still enough to worry....

 

[Deleted member 29676]

I must finished reading Fear, by Bob Woodword, and there's a little blurb where Obama tells Woodword that what really keeps him up at night is the though that a nuclear bomb guess off in an American city, and what that would do to the world.

Even a "small" one, would upend the world order. Like, what happens after that?

Click to shrink...

Yea, there is no good answer because there would be no appropriate response. If terrorists based in Pakistan did it do you invade there even if they didn't have government support? What if you can't attributed to anyone because IDing the nuclear signature just shows it is an old russian bomb. Do you attack them for not securing their nuclear stockpile? You have millions of dead americans and no one to go after.

 

[subpar spatula]

A dirty bomb, sure, by terrorists. A country attack on another? Almost zero. Any country using a nuke on another is a great excuse for "allies" to work together and crush you. Using a nuke would country suicide.

 

[smurfx]

That logic doesn't exactly apply when you now have foreign nations with nuclear arsenals getting compromised by rogue agents.

Russia orders Compromised Foreign Leader to nuke Country X. Country X responds by nuking Country Y.
Where's the fallout for Russia? They didn't launch the nukes. Country Y did.

Click to shrink...

i don't see this scenario taking place. unless they somehow compromised everybody working with that leader. plus other foreign nations spy on each other so they would likely have evidence of them getting orders to nuke a damn country. you're more likely to see them supply some group with nuclear material and have them detonate a dirty bomb. a lot harder to prove how they got that nuclear material if they then kill all those who committed the act to erase evidence.

 

[Mona]

A dirty bomb, sure, by terrorists. A country attack on another? Almost zero. Any country using a nuke on another is a great excuse for "allies" to work together and crush you. Using a nuke would country suicide.

Click to shrink...

if climate change continues the way it is, in 400 years who knows what strategies will be on the table when the world is in chaos

 

[DOBERMAN INC]

100%,you can't stop the knowledge getting out and then the production getting simplified, only slow it down.
All you need is one crazy bastard thinking they can move up the world ladder with one action, more likely to happen sooner with terrorists though.
The best thing for now would be countries to be working on getting counter-ICBM systems as fool proof as possible.

 

[Deleted member 3815]

No one really wants to fire a nuclear weapon as that is a declaration of war and makes them a target of retaliation.

Honestly I would love it if a nuke dropped right where I live. No mess or cleanup or people having to deal with my belongings or anything. If I could just be deleted from existence that would be great.

Click to shrink...

That's not a funny joke to make.

 

[Dark Knight]

I panic about this a lot, so my gut tells me there's a high chance.

 

[Tappin Brews]

i'd think its an inevitability.

 

[Heromanz]

Like 100%

 

[Betty]

I dreamed about being in a nuclear bomb blast very early this year, it's stuck with me because of how vivid and clear it was. Not that I put any stock into dreams being pre-cognitive but it was eerie all the same.

Spoiler: the dream

I was standing, looking out the living room window, enjoying the gorgeously sunny day, but wanted to be just a little cooler so wished out loud for some rain. Then just like a scene from a movie the skies clouded over and a downfall began.

Stunned, I quickly asked for it to go back to being sunny, just to test if it was real, and sure enough it did.

Then to really test I asked once more for rain, and again everything went dark, but this time it was too dark, everything was jet black or glowing white.

Feeling something ominous was happening I crept upstairs and was just in time to peer out my bedroom window and see the ground detonate outwards into the sky with series of racing explosions, just like from a nuke or atom bomb. I had just enough time to try and scream before feeling my entire body disintegrate.

It didn't hurt, it was like being shoved really hard but with no immediate sensation after.

The scary part was I could sense being dead but all I could see was darkness, and I wondered if the souls of everyone on the planet were like me and would be able to somehow communicate to figure out what the hell happened.

But then I woke up seconds later.

The sense of powerlessness is something i'll never forget.

I can't really fathom what would happen if such a bomb went off anywhere on populated land these days, the results and repercussions are too horrifying.

 

[Deleted member 4034]

Zero with Ethan Hunt around.

 

[lunarworks]

I grew up in the tail end of the cold war (the '80s), so this was actual nightmares for me.

 

[Plum]

EDIT: Deleted Post

 

[Daitokuji]

Very high

 

[Dark Knight]

I still think Trump or Putin doing it is super possible. What do these narcissistic sociopaths have to lose as they get older and start losing power? "fuck you, I had mine"

You don't think Trump would just love to go down in history as a world-ending demon if he can't go down in history as King America, the Emperor that MAGA?

Eh, I still think some equivalent of the deep state has removed or coerced some link in the president->launch nuke chain so there's that, maybe... but who knows what nihilistic trolls are manning the launch codes in Russia.

 

[Squarehard]

What are the actual odds it's the US again? ;)

 

[QuantumZebra]

Damn bro cheer up. RE2 1/25

Click to shrink...

 

[Gunny T Highway]

It is far more likely a non-state actor will use a nuclear weapon.

Click to shrink...

^This. It is far more likely some terrorist can get a hold of some old Soviet Union bombs before a nation state would ever launch one.

 

[Stouffers]

7

 

[Timeaisis]

99%. It will happen eventually.

 

[nemoral]

No one has any idea. All we know is the more they proliferate, the higher the chances.

Edit: Alternately, you can read the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, which say we're at 2 minutes to midnight, which is the closest we've been to nuclear catastrophe since 1953.
https://thebulletin.org/sites/default/files/2018 Doomsday Clock Statement.pdf

 

[Deltadan]

Don't watch Threads, OP. It's the British version of 'The Day After' and it's much, much more depressing and dire. If you're curious, here's that film's 'nuke' scene:



As for the OP question, the thing about nukes is that their very existence makes the possibility of usage way too high. All it really requires is one crazed leader with nothing to lose and enough of a chip on their shoulder. Either that or an escalation of conflict that makes their use almost inevitable.

Even then I'll echo the same points being made in that it's much more likely that a rogue party will use one than a country.

Click to shrink...

I cant believe the British have somehow found a way to make a version of an already dark and depressing movie, somehow, more dark and depressing.

Like I get that we Americans can be too optimistic sometimes, but damn.

 

[nemoral]

I cant believe the British have somehow found a way to make a version of an already dark and depressing movie, somehow, more dark and depressing.

Click to shrink...

And then, because some people weren't sad enough, they did an animated feature called When the Wind Blows, that makes Grave of the Fireflies look like super happy funtime.

 

[halcali]

The more integrated our world becomes, the less likely a nuclear strike becomes.
That's how I view it, but I'm not an expert like some of the nerds in here. =p

 

[ToddBonzalez]

Very, very low. MAD is a real thing. The real worry would be if a terrorist sect ever got their hands on one.

 

[jman2050]

Nobody knows. And it honestly doesn't matter, because only the next time is important.

 

[_Karooo]

If we poke Russia enough maybe it will happen.