What are Trump's chances for reelection?

[Deleted member 31923]

I've been stunned at how many people here have been saying that Trump has 2020 on lock now, or that he is going to win in a landslide after the Russian probe has ended. While it's still very early, it looks like the Democratic field is about complete, and it's going to be either Biden, O'Rouke, Sanders, or Harris (I'll give Warren an outside shot, plus there could always be a dark horse). So we have that information now. And I've always said that Trump has the incumbency advantage, and yes, incumbents rarely lose. He also has the economy for now, but there's always a chance for a recession, and it's fair to say one is likely coming in the next couple of years. But Trump is still wildly unpopular when you consider the economy, and 2018 looked bad for him, especially in states he needs to win.

And look at the electoral map math. Where is that people think a landslide is coming from? Is Trump going to win New York or California? All the Democratic candidate has to do is win the states Hillary won, plus Maine 2, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, and they win the election (recall that Trump won MI, WI, and PA by only 77k votes combined). Here is that scenario at 270 to win.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/e4yXP

Also, if you take away Wisconsin and give it to Trump, then you have an electoral college tie, which would go to the House and the Democrat should win. I think we need less bedwetting about Mueller. Be thankful this happened far from the election and not the week or two before like the Comey letter. Anyway, what are your thoughts on Trump's reelection chances?

 

[EJS]

He's got a very good chance.

 

[The Vathlonian]

This whole shady fiasco just gave him the election.

 

[Saya]

I think Dems have a real good chance of winning, THEY JUST NEED TO GET OUT AND VOTE



http://firehousestrategies.com/2020battlegroundsurvey/

 

[Lunar Wolf]

He's got a high chance atm.

 

[BWoog]

Really depends on who the Democratic frontrunner is I think.

 

[Sephzilla]

He doesn't have as good of chances as some on Era want to think he has. A lot of people like to forget that Trump winning in the first place was an absolute perfect storm of shit falling perfectly in order to just give him a chance, and even with that he needed a giant alley oop from Comey plus some bad campaign moves by Hillary in order to get him over the hump. It's highly unlikely that Trump is going to be able to replicate his path to winning twice, especially if the Democratic candidate is generally more likable than Hillary.

Sometimes the pessimism about Trump clouds rational thought around here.

 

[TacomaSCDisaster]

Better than a lot of people want to admit to themselves. It's incredibly difficult to unseat a sitting president, his party loves him, and they do everything in their power to gerrymander and undermine the will of the American people. If the dems remain divided between those who are real progressives and older establishment people who want to maintain their status quo, we could end up with someone like Beto who won't muster much enthusiasm and likely give Trump another four years.

 

[Bear]

His chances have certainly increased the past few days. If the election were tomorrow, he'd probably win.

 

[DrewFu]

His chances are realistic, but not likely.

 

[Betty]

In an effort to try and not to be so negative i'll just say he has a very good chance of reelection.

 

[NotLiquid]

Better than people think, but also worse than people think

 

[Hollywood Duo]

Highly unlikely, he might get a tiny boost from Mueller, but he'll shit himself 200 more times before the election.

 

[Retropug]

We can't underestimate him for 2020, as we saw in 2016 not enough people voted because they assumed he would lose. We need to go full force and everyone vote.

 

[Speevy]

Well, unless we find some magical "chosen one" figure hidden in the US somewhere, I'd say it's a lock.

 

[HamSandwich]

Better than a lot of people want to admit to themselves. It's incredibly difficult to unseat a sitting president, his party loves him, and they do everything in their power to gerrymander and undermine the will of the American people. If the dems remain divided between those who are real progressives and older establishment people who want to maintain their status quo, we could end up with someone like Beto who won't muster much enthusiasm and likely give Trump another four years.

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How will Beto not muster much enthusiasm? He did so in his own state and had people around the country rooting for him

 

[gutter_trash]

high chance to get re-elected.

if Dems can't build a narrative, Trump will define his opponent (socialist!!!) and run on that.

If Dems go all ''woke'' and ''ally'' internet meme talk , Trump wins

 

[Duxxy3]

If it's Biden v. Trump, I'd give the slight nod to Biden. If it's anybody else v. Trump, it's either too close to call or in Trump's favor. It will depend entirely on how a handful of states vote. They're so fickle that it's easy to slide one way or another.

Trump definitely got a bump this week. That could go away if the full reports is more damning, but right now he gets the bump.

 

[The Albatross]

Well, I can put it to you this way:

Trump has a better chance today March 2019, of being elected president in November 2020, then he did four years ago on March 2015, of being elected president in November 2016.

 

['3y Kingdom]

His chances have certainly increased the past few days. If the election were tomorrow, he'd probably win.

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Nah, generic Democrat would have it in the bag.

 

[kyle mechlachlan]

Medium-high. The report coming out now gives a chance that any momentum from it will die down by election season. There's a lot of time between now and then. A lot can happen.

 

[TacomaSCDisaster]

How will Beto not muster much enthusiasm? He did so in his own state and had people around the country rooting for him

Click to shrink...

He did well there initially but since then he has come out and criticized if not outright denounced the idea of Medicare for All, one of the key things many dem voters want. If he's willing to give on things like that for the sake of centrism, it'll probably kill a lot of said enthusiasm.

 

[Fleet of Foot]

I don't care what the polls say or what the media tells me - I won't believe he can't win until he actually doesn't win.

 

[DrewFu]

Well, unless we find some magical "chosen one" figure hidden in the US somewhere, I'd say it's a lock.

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His approval rating is still in the toilet. Unless something completely unforeseen happens, this is still the Dem's election to lose.

 

[Swauny Jones]

He's getting re-elected. Y'all done fucked up because once he is he'll overhaul everything with the additional 4 years.

 

[FTF]

He's got a very good chance.

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Yeah this unfortunately.

It's 50-50 and everyone needs to go vote to get this pos out of office!

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

I've been stunned at how many people here have been saying that Trump has 2020 on lock

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Hillary Clinton had 2016 on lock. That was the most surefire presidential win ever. How did that turn out?

 

[Steve Winwood]

Gambling and prediction markets have Trump around 40% (Pinnacle, Predictit). I'd tend to see this as a slight overestimate, but given the predictive power of markets it's probably in the vicinity of correct.

 

[ElectricBlanketFire]

Without looking at actual data, 50/50.

 

[Ahhthe90s]

Very good.

 

[Deleted member 13798]

Don't count him out. He has a pretty solid chance as he seems to keep torpedoing himself but never sinking, which was characteristic of the 2016 run up. The Dems are not as sure fire for a win as people think, unless they really bring some strong heat this time.

This seems like a toss-up election though.

 

[Box]

Depends what's in the news when people are going to vote?

 

[Ac30]

Well, I can put it to you this way:

Trump has a better chance today March 2019, of being elected president in November 2020, then he did four years ago on March 2015, of being elected president in November 2016.

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Accurate.

What I can tell you is that Trump will easily lose the popular vote in 2020.

 

[Hey Please]

Between continued efforts towards voter disenfranchisement and his current "victory", it is decent.

 

[Ortix]

Barr's letter won't be relevant in 2020. His chances aren't great but still exist. He needs to defend all states he won in 2016, and that's just very hard.

 

[Sephzilla]

Hillary Clinton had 2016 on lock. That was the most surefire presidential win ever. How did that turn out?

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Like I pointed out in my original post, Trump winning in 2016 was a ridiculously rare perfect storm that we'll probably never see again.

 

[maxxpower]

If anyone who is remotely a Democrat and doesn't want to vote for a racist bigot POS voted for the Democratic nominee then it should be an easy win. Unlike Republicans though, our people don't fucking vote.

 

[Xx 720]

In 2020, we can win the election but there needs to be a reality check wake up call, and sadly I just don't see that happening and it fucking sucks.

 

[PanzerKraken]

"He has no chance of winning" was what everyone was saying back then.

 

[Zemst]

Pretty high I think. His base ignores everything he does and barely anything sticks to him. Blantantly lying, calling all press fake news, refusing to ever denounce white supremacy, a perfect rally cry for republicans. I think it depends more if we actually get folks to be enthusiastic to actually go vote him out.

 

[skillzilla81]

America is racist, so really likely.

 

[Deleted member 22649]

The people who voted for him last time weren't voting for him; they were voting against everyone else. They'll do that again. I suspect there are going to be even more people doing the same next time; I've never seen a more hate-filled America in my entire life than the one I live in right now.

 

[Prophet Five]

He doesn't have as good of chances as some on Era want to think he has. A lot of people like to forget that Trump winning in the first place was an absolute perfect storm of shit falling perfectly in order to just give him a chance, and even with that he needed a giant alley oop from Comey plus some bad campaign moves by Hillary in order to get him over the hump. It's highly unlikely that Trump is going to be able to replicate his path to winning twice, especially if the Democratic candidate is generally more likable than Hillary.

Sometimes the pessimism about Trump clouds rational thought around here.

Click to shrink...

People here who are just like "he's gonna win guaranteed!!!" are just playing the edgy, internet apathy card. Nothing about that man is guaranteed and wasn't guaranteed the first time, either. Like you said: perfect storm. If we all give up and give in to this fear of him winning like his lackeys and the idiot republicans want then sure. He's guaranteed. But we need to fight and vote to make sure this doesn't happen. A defeatist attitude is not helping anyone and, honestly, people who come around and say shit like that just need to shut the fuck up.

 

[PintSizedSlasher]

Trump is going to make the election all about this "fake, illegal, partisan investigation" because he just can't help himself, while dems are going to be about substance and talk about issues the majority of the people care about. So no, I don't think this whole kerfuffle upped his chances, but it certainly didn't lower them.

 

[Hollywood Duo]

I don't care what the polls say or what the media tells me - I won't believe he can't win until he actually doesn't win.

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He obviously "can" win. Anyone arguing that its impossible for him to win isn't being realistic. However, given how horrible he is at his job he'll keep reminding people how terrible he is for the next 1.5 years.

 

[DrewFu]

There is also the very real chance of at least economic slowdown (or worse) by the time the election rolls around. If that's the case, Trump has almost no shot at winning.

 

[Bliman]

It's much to soon to know that. There can be lot's of stuff happening till then.

 

[Powdered Egg]

He's going to be re-elected.

 

[PositivePolitique]

His opponent is all that matters. He won't win against a generic status quo democrat. "Im not Trump" isn't going to win for them. They have to believe in what they're saying and fight aggressively on their progressive policies like Bernie Sanders.

 

[Tempy]

My prediction is that he's going to commit more fuckups and that his health will deteriorate so badly that he won't even be able to participate. It'll be some other Republican goon.