what do the results of the North Carolina special election held yesterday mean for 2020?

[thediamondage]

Yesterday, Sept 10th, North Carolina held a special election for the 9th Congressional District House seat. It was a race between Republican Dan Bishop and Democrat Dan McCready. Bishop won 50.8% to 48.6%. Both middle age white guys in a district that Trump carried by 12 points in 2016. However, republicans have had a number of blows against them in the district/state such as election fraud (republican), Trump, economy, etc. McCready ran previously in 2018 and tied the republican so this was technically a "drop" in votes for him in a single year. The election was a special election due to I believe the tie and the fraud issues.

McCready ran a campaign based upon health care and the economy. He didn't seem to attack Trump that much. Dan Bishop (the republican) attacked democrats as socialists, attacked the Green New Deal, attacked AOC, medicare for all - the things that will be talking points in the 2020 cycle.

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/opinion/article234960652.html

Early this year, when Republican Mark Harris called for a new election in North Carolina's disputed 9th Congressional District, top-tier Republicans wanted little to do with taking his place on the ballot. They cited varying reasons such as work and family, but there also was a clear political reality at play: The Republican nominee would be running against a well-moneyed Democrat who had barely lost in a race that was now tainted by Republican election fraud. Why spend time and political capital on such an uphill climb?

On Tuesday, Dan Bishop showed why. The Mecklenburg Republican beat McCready in a race that was close — but not as close as the disputed 9th District result last November. Bishop's win — and McCready's somewhat disappointing performance — should at least raise the eyebrows of Democrats looking ahead to the 2020 election.

Click to shrink...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...olina-but-its-not-all-bad-news-for-democrats/

On Tuesday, North Carolina played host to the most closely watched election since the 2018 midterms. On paper, it was Republicans who emerged victorious, going 2-for-2 in two separate congressional elections. But there was also a silver lining for Democrats — their final vote margin in the night's marquee race was much bluer than the district's baseline partisanship.

Individually, the results of these races can reasonably be dismissed as the result of unique circumstances. But taken together, the results of special elections3 do mean something for 2020. Specifically, if one party is performing consistently better than its normal partisan baseline, that has historically presaged a strong cycle for that party in the next regularly scheduled election.

Click to shrink...

So what does it all mean? Is this a unique one off that doesn't mean much? Why did the democrat candidate struggle so hard in a state that has been rocked by charges of republican election fraud? I've never been to North Carolina but I assume its going through the same sort of suburban political upheaval a lot of "midwest transitioning to knowledge economy" places are.

I don't really buy this whole "the republicans lost, but they lost by a lot less than they SHOULD HAVE!" Errr, losing is still losing. If Trump wins 2020 by only 0.001% its still a win for Trump. Is the fact that the left leaning Democrat candidates - Warren, Sanders - polling high among primary voters a good thing for 2020 nationwide general prospects or does it hurt in the 4-5 swing states that will really decide the presidential election?

 

[thediamondage]

oops meant to post this in Etc not hangouts, sorry I can't see to edit or move it myself

 

[Shard Shinjuku]

Bishop won by 2 points in a R+12 District and the special election was seen as having little to no actual stakes, the data point take away is that this is another bad sign for Congressional Rs in 2020.