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Which game will sell more in its lifetime?

  • Super Smash Bros: Ultimate

    Votes: 1,236 47.6%
  • The Last of Us: Part 2

    Votes: 504 19.4%
  • Halo Infinite

    Votes: 103 4.0%
  • Something else will overtake all of these

    Votes: 106 4.1%
  • Pokemon

    Votes: 647 24.9%

  • Total voters
    2,596

Jaded Alyx

Member
Oct 25, 2017
35,352
The Lat of Us Part 2 will be the biggest exclusive in this list, in my opinion. The PlayStation has an incredibly large install base. Don't settle for anything under 15 million copies.

Pokémon will sell 15 million copies or more if it's any good.

Halo will be on PC for the first time in years, but it will also be on Gamepass. Don't think it will be close. ~12 million is my guess.

Those were my predictions out of thin air. No problem.
But Smash is probably around 15m already.....
 

'V'

Banned
May 19, 2018
772
Nothing can compete with Pokemon IMO. It's a franchise that attracts people who don't normally play video games, I mean just look at the Pokemon GO during it's peak. Everyone has heard of Pokemon before and it's that kind of brand recognition why I think it'll sell the most. I'd say Halo will be the 2nd best since it's a game that attracts the whole FPS shooter audience. 3rd would probably be SSB followed by TLOU 2 (which I won't be buying for several reasons and from browsing other forums it seems there are a lot of people who share my opinion of the game).
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
its even worse if they own other platforms. there is even less reason to buy anything but exclusives then cause third party games run better everywhere else and look way better too.

Think about what you're saying for a moment. You're claiming that people who own a Switch plus another platform have even less choice because they will choose to play multiplats on their other platform (again this is not necessarily true considering portability) and that this somehow means Nintendo's exclusives get unfairly inflated numbers?

Choice is choice, whether it's on a single platform or on all platforms you own. People aren't buying Smash because they can't buy KH3 on their Switch, they're buying Smash on their Switch and KH3 on their PS4. So how do Nintendo games have an unfair advantage?
 

goldenpp73

Banned
Dec 5, 2017
2,144
its even worse if they own other platforms. there is even less reason to buy anything but exclusives then cause third party games run better everywhere else and look way better too.

How does that explain first party Nintendo outselling other stuff if the people have access to other systems in the first place? It literally means they prioritize the Nintendo game despite having other options lol.
 

ShinobiBk

One Winged Slayer
Member
Dec 28, 2017
10,121
The real answer is Mario Kart 8, which won't stop selling unless they release a Mario Kart 9
 
Oct 27, 2017
42,700
Question: Which game will sell more in its lifetime?

Answer: TLou2, easy with the 100M installed base...

Not that hard to understand. My answer is Tlou2. Don't like it, no my problem.

Unreal lol

This answer seems to have no basis in reality, history, facts or anything really. If installed based was the only factor, then Pokemon R/B, G/S, R/S, D/P and S/M wouldn't have all outsold TLOU1 despite the install bases on their systems being less than the PS3 + PS4

Smash Ultimate wouldn't be approaching TLOU1 sales despite the Switch having a significantly smaller install base than the PS3/PS4 separately, let alone combined. It wouldn't have outsold Smash Brawl despite the Wii have a larger install base than the Switch.

Looking purely at install base requires you to ignore EVERYTHING else about those respective series and their prior and current sales trends
 

Jaded Alyx

Member
Oct 25, 2017
35,352
This answer seems to have no basis in reality, history, facts or anything really. If installed based was the only factor, then Pokemon R/B, G/S, R/S, D/P and S/M wouldn't have all outsold TLOU1 despite the install bases on their systems being less than the PS3 + PS4

Smash Ultimate wouldn't be approaching TLOU1 sales despite the Switch having a significantly smaller install base than the PS3/PS4 separately, let alone combined. It wouldn't have outsold Smash Brawl despite the Wii have a larger install base than the Switch.

Looking purely at install base requires you to ignore EVERYTHING else about those respective series and their prior and current sales trends
Careful, this poster doesn't like people quoting their posts to discuss their 'opinion'.
 

N.Domixis

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
9,208
With Xbox GP, Play Anywhere and a freaking 60$ price point it may affect if Halo even gets actual sales. It will all just be rentals.
 

Dr. Mario

Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,841
Netherlands
The real answer is Mario Kart 8, which won't stop selling unless they release a Mario Kart 9
Crap you're right, I should change my vote. Kart is still some 3M ahead (and if you include Wii U sales there's no competition whatsoever), and Switch sales should progress to more casual buyers. I think Smash will round out at 20M, but Kart can easily go further.

The only wild card is if TLoU has some insane GaaS going or if Detective Pikachu causes another Go like run for Pokemon. The latter is a bit more likely than the former, but I doubt they can reach Mario Kart levels.
 

ShinobiBk

One Winged Slayer
Member
Dec 28, 2017
10,121
Crap you're right, I should change my vote. Kart is still some 3M ahead (and if you include Wii U sales there's no competition whatsoever), and Switch sales should progress to more casual buyers. I think Smash will round out at 20M, but Kart can easily go further.

The only wild card is if TLoU has some insane GaaS going or if Detective Pikachu causes another Go like run for Pokemon. The latter is a bit more likely than the former, but I doubt they can reach Mario Kart levels.
People are combining TLoU PS3 & PS4 sales, so Wii U sales definitely count for MK8, which puts it around 23.5 mil (just under) and it has shown absolutely no signs of slowing down. I think it has a shot to hit MK Wii levels when all said and done
 

Geinrendour

Member
Jun 3, 2018
362
have you seen the kind of games that actually sell the most in the current video game market? it's a third person cinematic action adventure game with super high production values, a giant dev behind it and published by a big publisher. if this isn't a "game for everyone" then no game is.

Good point there.
Still, TLoU doesn't have the heavy name CoD or Rockstar-everyone-will-buy-it-anyways thing going for them.
 

Avada Kedavra

Banned
Jan 23, 2019
756
have you seen the kind of games that actually sell the most in the current video game market? it's a third person cinematic action adventure game with super high production values, a giant dev behind it and published by a big publisher. if this isn't a "game for everyone" then no game is.
I wouldn't say a game that challenges religious conventions and "pushes a feminist agenda" (as haters would put it) is for everyone. An AAA game with a lesbian protagonist is unprecedented, mainly because market research shows it's not the most profitable approach. And The Last of Us Part II is already banned in a few countries and I'm expecting many boycotts. All of that won't affect most of its sales but it's not the perfect AAA formula that's targeted at every gamers.
 

Rndom Grenadez

Prophet of Truth
Member
Dec 7, 2017
5,633
The only real answer is Mario Kart 8 Deluxe. If we're counting TLOU as 17 million, then across both platforms MK8/D has already sold 23 million. Smash, Pokémon, Halo and TLOU2 won't catch up.
 

HK-47

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,586
Ah yes, Smash Ultimate and its drastic change of its old formula and leap in graphics from worse than ps2 graphics to Switch graphics

You do realize no Smash game even ever sold 18m?
Do you even know what you are vomiting all over this thread? Worse than ps2 graphics what am I reading
 
Oct 28, 2017
295
In terms of individual SKUs:

Smash > TLoU 2 > Pokemon A > Pokemon B > Halo

As a whole though, Pokemon's combined sales will likely beat TLoU 2, but I don't think it'll overtake Smash. I don't see Halo coming anywhere close to any of them in terms of sales, regardless of whether it takes off on Twitch or not.
 

Unknownlight

One Winged Slayer
Member
Nov 2, 2017
10,560
Why is this thread suddenly talking about how Smash will hit 30 million? The game's selling amazingly well, but not that well.
 

foxuzamaki

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,550
no 3d mario game did as well as odyssey
no smash did as well as ultimate
no zelda did as well as botw
now of course these games are excellent so that helped too, but switch really elevated them to new levels, no reason it's not gonna do it for pokemon. plus this one will have the actual novelty of being the first proper pokemon game you can play on the tv.
To add to this, kirby star allies is either the fastest or 2nd fastest selling kirby to date and on pace to be one of the best selling kirbys(tho we cant claim it to be the best selling, yet) mario tennis is also the fastest selling MT game and may or may already be the best selling entry(someone check). xenoblade 2 is now is nearly at 2 million and is the best selling in the franchise, just growth after growth for pretty much almost every nintendo franchise so far.
 

Deleted member 10737

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
49,774
To add to this, kirby star allies is either the fastest or 2nd fastest selling kirby to date and on pace to be one of the best selling kirbys(tho we cant claim it to be the best selling, yet) mario tennis is also the fastest selling MT game and may or may already be the best selling entry(someone check). xenoblade 2 is now is nearly at 2 million and is the best selling in the franchise, just growth after growth for pretty much almost every nintendo franchise so far.
yep. and the fact that all this has happened in less than two years where the other LTDs we're talking about are for games that have had 5 or 6 years to sell shows that switch on a whole another level when it comes to selling nintendo software, and past entries really shouldn't be looked at as the ceiling for how a switch entry in a series can sell.
 

WestEgg

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,047
I voted for Smash, but honestly, even if we choose not to count the original Wii U release, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe STILL has a good shot at being the best selling exclusive this gen, as it's not going to stop selling until it is either replaced or the Switch dies. I think it's going to be north of 20 million easily by the end. If we are factoring in cross gen versions, this moves from a possibility to a certainty.
 

Logan Hardy

Member
Dec 26, 2018
1,790
But most Switch owners also own a PS4, PC, and/or XB1 so that doesn't matter too much as most of them are still going to have to choose between games across multiple platforms, never mind the fact that the Switch has had plenty of indie and 3rd party titles do fairly well
I am just saying if you have a combo of Ps4 or Xbox with switch , There is competition from two side in the ps4 side i.e 3rd party and exclusives but in the switch there is less competition , That's all i am saying.