Which Exclusive will end up selling the most? ( SSB: Ultimate, TLOU:Part 2, Halo Infinite)

[Ryng™]

The fight is between Smash and pokémon.

I expect Smash to sell in the 25-30 million range. A mainline Pokemon game use to sell 15-18 million on the GBA/DS/3DS era, but we know Switch is s whole different story.

Though right now i'm not ready to bet on those high numbers. Smash Ultimate success wasn't only because Switch...

TLOU2 could sell 20 million, but i don't think it's gonna sell Mich more than that.

About Halo, eh... I don't even know if it's gonna reach 10 million. Definitively out of the competition.


Imo right now i expect: Smash > Pokemon >> TLOU >>>>> Halo Infinite

 

[Logan Hardy]

My heart says tlou2 but my mind says smash , Oh god what a dilemma lol

 

[dlauv]

By the end of the console's life, probably Smash. But the first Last of Us sold 17 million across two consoles and I expect TLoU2 to come close to that. To keep up, Smash would need a 1:1 attachment ratio per Switch owner.

 

[sfortunato]

By the end of the console's life, probably Smash. But the first Last of Us sold 17 million across two consoles and I expect TLoU2 to come close to that. To keep up, Smash would need a 1:1 attachment ratio per Switch owner.

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?

Smash has already sold 12m units. Switch has sold about 32m units.

If Switch is going to sell about 15m units in FY 2019 (I'm being conservative, this FY Switch will be over 17m units), Smash needs to sell to 1/3 of new purchasers to reach 17m units.

 

[dlauv]

?

Smash has already sold 12m units. Switch has sold about 32m units.

If Switch is going to sell about 15m units in FY 2019 (I'm being conservative, this FY Switch will be over 17m units), Smash needs to sell to 1/3 of new purchasers to reach 17m units.

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O my bad. I got that 20 million goal figure confused for the total.

 

[Saint-14]

it's already been outsold (on 1/3 of the userbase) so how would it end up the best selling exclusive game?

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Outsold by what? For someone who asks for sources you sure have nothing to back that claim of yours, Spider-Man sold through (not shipped) over 9 million in less than 3 months, we don't have December numbers and we also don't have shipped numbers.

 

[Deleted member 10737]

Outsold by what? For someone who asks for sources you sure have nothing to back that claim of yours, Spider-Man sold through (not shipped) over 9 million in less than 3 months, we don't have December numbers and we also don't have shipped numbers.

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someone said spider-man, meaning they think it can be the best selling exclusive game of the generation
mario odyssey and smash have already outsold spiderman. spiderman was at 9 million by the end of november, and anyone who knows anything will tell you that those games will keep selling for longer and at a higher pace than spiderman.
and they're not exactly exclusives but it has been outsold by mario kart 8, and will probably be outsold by botw.
you're free to believe that spiderman will somehow go from 9 million to the the 25 or higher that the best selling exclusive game of the generation will end up at, but most people will tell you that's just impossible.

 

[BladeRunner2099]

i can guess why...
also people who consider a hypothetical ps5 port for tlou2, i thought the thread was about exclusives? as in, only what the game can do on ps4

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You are right, on hindsight, I should have included MK8D since it would probably be the winner.

 

[BassForever]

Pokemon as a combined sku > smash as a single sku

 

[Andromeda]

i can guess why...
also people who consider a hypothetical ps5 port for tlou2, i thought the thread was about exclusives? as in, only what the game can do on ps4

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Why ? It's going to be the same game on PS5 (if they even port the game as the game will be available via BC on PS5 and probably enhanced). Similarly people count all versions of GTA5 because it's the same exact game.

And TLOU2 will continue to sell on PS5 and PS6. It's a game with a story. In the end (like in 10 years), with the huge install base of PS4 (and probably PS5), I could see TLOU2 outseling all those Nintendo games which are iterative games and won't be selling much when the new versions will be available.

 

[Deleted member 10737]

Why ? It's going to be the same game on PS5 (if they even port the game as the game will be available via BC on PS5 and probably enhanced). Similarly people count all versions of GTA5 because it's the same exact game.

And TLOU2 will continue to sell on PS5 and PS6. It's a game with a story. In the end (like in 10 years), with the huge install base of PS4 (and probably PS5), I could see TLOU2 outseling all those Nintendo games which are iterative games.

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because the title of the thread says best selling exclusive
an exclusive game is only available on a single platform
if we're counting cross generation releases then mario kart 8 will outsell everything in the poll between the wii u and switch versions.

 

[goldenpp73]

Why ? It's going to be the same game on PS5 (if they even port the game as the game will be available via BC on PS5 and probably enhanced). Similarly people count all versions of GTA5 because it's the same exact game.

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In that case MK8 is over 20 million already. The issue here is you're comparing repeat purchases to non repeat purchases. Most people who had MK8 on Wii U probably own it again, well over half I'm sure. It's a cheap way to inflate your numbers.

In the case of GTAV it has sold such a grotesque amount that no one cares to be specific at this point. It's also why people usually want to know if a game was bundled for free, as such things also artificially boost numbers in ways that don't show true sales potential.

Let's say if Metroid Prime on Gamecube sold 3 million, then they ported it to Wii and it sold a million, then they ported it again to Switch and it sold a million, and a 3ds port sold 2 million. Is Prime now a 7 Million seller IP? Do we put those 4 versions against one release of Prime 4?

If you do you're a fool, which is why it's best to compare like for like. Otherwise you end up having to wait 20 years to settle the poll. Hell we still have releases of Sonic 1 coming out along with old Mario games, the battle never ends!

 

[Ultra]

If we're counting remasters/ports then it's not going to be Smash, TLOU2 or Pokemon but Mario Kart 8 rofl

 

[Kyzer]

I think pokemon switch will be the best selling entries ever unless they don't deliver on what fans want, which is also poasible

 

[Andromeda]

If we're counting remasters/ports then it's not going to be Smash, TLOU2 or Pokemon but Mario Kart 8 rofl

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Well, that's certainly possible.

 

[Deleted member 52190]

someone said spider-man, meaning they think it can be the best selling exclusive game of the generation
mario odyssey and smash have already outsold spiderman. spiderman was at 9 million by the end of november, and anyone who knows anything will tell you that those games will keep selling for longer and at a higher pace than spiderman.
and they're not exactly exclusives but it has been outsold by mario kart 8, and will probably be outsold by botw.
you're free to believe that spiderman will somehow go from 9 million to the the 25 or higher that the best selling exclusive game of the generation will end up at, but most people will tell you that's just impossible.

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You are comparing a game that release in Oct 2017 and feb 2017. Soo, Spider Man can outsell both BOTW and Mario, not Smash tough.

EDIT: Just to give more information, this are the sales for BOTW and Mario for the Switch as of 31/12/2018:

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild 11.68 million.
Super Mario Odyssey 13.76 million.

Spider Man has 9+ milion sold has of 25/11/2018.

Base on the data reveal by both Sony and Nitendo, it is clear that both Spider Man and Smash will be above Zelda and Mario.

 

[Kordelle]

If Gamepass counts: Halo

 

[BeforeU]

hollyshit at the poll number. TLOU bigger than Halo? do people know Halo coming to Windows too and on gamepass? lol

 

[Le Dude]

You are comparing a game that release in Oct 2017 and feb 2017. Soo, Spider Man can outsell both BOTW and Mario, not Smash tough.

EDIT: Just to give more information, this are the sales for BOTW and Mario for the Switch as of 31/12/2018:

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild 11.68 million.
Super Mario Odyssey 13.76 million.

Spider Man has 9+ milion sold has of 25/11/2018.

Base on the data reveal by both Sony and Nitendo, it is clear that both Spider Man and Smash will be above Zelda and Mario.

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I wouldn't say it's clear. Nintendo games have unprecedented legs and they will likely continue to sell for much longer than Spider-Man does, especially considering the PS4 is on its way out soon and the Switch isn't even halfway through its life.

EDIT: Both SMO and BOTW are charting above Spider-Man in the UK and in Japan. Spider-Man sold more in the US in December, but wasn't it bundled? SMO and BOTW will likely each outsell Spider-Man this year.

 

[BladeRunner2099]

If Gamepass counts: Halo

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hollyshit at the poll number. TLOU bigger than Halo? do people know Halo coming to Windows too and on gamepass? lol

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I am surprised too.

Xbox GP+PC+ Launch Title for Next Gen+ xCloud are all going to elevate Halo unlike 4,5. Twitch is a dark horse too, if streamers like Summit1G, Dr.Disrespect, Ninja, Shroud take to Halo even for 1 month. 20-30 Million is not unreasonable to expect at all.

But lets see :)

 

[Deleted member 52190]

I wouldn't say it's clear. Nintendo games have unprecedented legs and they will likely continue to sell for much longer than Spider-Man does, especially considering the PS4 is on its way out soon and the Switch isn't even halfway through its life.

EDIT: Both SMO and BOTW are charting above Spider-Man in the UK and in Japan. Spider-Man sold more in the US in December, but wasn't it bundled? SMO and BOTW will likely each outsell Spider-Man this year.

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Yes but the UK and Japan arent the only places on the planet.

SMO and BOTW have been around for 1 year and 3 month and 1 year and 10 moths as of 31/12.

The bundles arent account for the 9+ as of 25/11.

 

[Betty]

As far as i'm aware we don't even have official sales figures for Halo 5, just numbers about how much it made and that it sold at least 5 million +.

Unless Halo Infinite becomes a phenomenon I doubt MS will be sharing the sales for it either.

 

[Le Dude]

Yes but the UK and Japan arent the only places on the planet.

SMO and BOTW have been around for 1 year and 3 month and 1 year and 10 moths as of 31/12.

The bundles arent account for the 9+ as of 25/11.

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Of course they're not the only places on the planet. But there's a good chance SMO and BOTW chart above Spiderman in the US in January since holiday bundle sales will be done and over with. As it is they were barely below Spider-Man in the US in December and that's not counting digital sales for the Nintendo games.

It doesn't matter how long it's been since release of SMO and BOTW if they are outselling Spider-Man on a weekly basis. If that's the case then it has no chance of ever catching up or surpassing them. If January NPD comes in and SMO and BOTW are above Spider-Man then it will never catch up. As I said it was already close in December and Spiderman had bundles and it include digital sales, unlike Nintendo games

 

[Logan Hardy]

Nintendo have a much higher attach rate than the other first parties.

If 70-80% of switch owners buy smash or Pokémon, no other exclusives are going to be able to match that

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Context is everything , Nintendo games are not fighting with big 3rd party games for their survival unlike Sony and Xbox.

 

[Jbone115]

Context is everything , Nintendo games are not fighting with big 3rd party games for their survival unlike Sony and Xbox.

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More like: People buy Nintendo hardware for first party games, while people buy Playstation/Xbox (mostly) for third party games. It's been that way for several generations now.

 

[Deleted member 52190]

Of course they're not the only places on the planet. But there's a good chance SMO and BOTW chart above Spiderman in the US in January since holiday bundle sales will be done and over with. As it is they were barely below Spider-Man in the US in December and that's not counting digital sales for the Nintendo games.

It doesn't matter how long it's been since release of SMO and BOTW if they are outselling Spider-Man on a weekly basis. If that's the case then it has no chance of ever catching up or surpassing them. If January NPD comes in and SMO and BOTW are above Spider-Man then it will never catch up. As I said it was already close in December and Spiderman had bundles and it include digital sales, unlike Nintendo games

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Yes you are rigth, but you are only tanking it to account the USA, UK and Japan as is the only markets we have info about the sales on a month basis.

And legth does matter, as the games tends to go cheaper. For example, as of last year, Horizon Zero down has a feature all year long on the big markets in top10 and top 20. The game is close to 10M or even above that and Horizon is not bigger that Spider Man.

EDIT: 10M, not 15M.

 

[PSOreo]

You guys are crazy. Smash is no where near as popular as you all think. It's not Pokemon or GTA levels.

 

[Deleted member 10737]

You are comparing a game that release in Oct 2017 and feb 2017. Soo, Spider Man can outsell both BOTW and Mario, not Smash tough.

EDIT: Just to give more information, this are the sales for BOTW and Mario for the Switch as of 31/12/2018:

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild 11.68 million.
Super Mario Odyssey 13.76 million.

Spider Man has 9+ milion sold has of 25/11/2018.

Base on the data reveal by both Sony and Nitendo, it is clear that both Spider Man and Smash will be above Zelda and Mario.

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I disagree. both botw and odyssey will keep on selling long after spiderman has stopped. i guess we can't be sure now and will have to wait until those two titles are completely done selling, but i feel confident that both will end up with considerably higher LTDs than spiderman. spiderman may be above botw at right now tho since we don't know how much it sold in december, but it won't keep the lead for long.

 

[Jbone115]

I do get the impression that Spider-Man will have unusually long legs for a Sony First-Party title, so I wouldn't be surprised if it does end up outpacing Mario Odyssey (especially if a new 3D Mario is announced next year).

 

[Le Dude]

Yes you are rigth, but you are only tanking it to account the USA, UK and Japan as is the only markets we have info about the sales on a month basis.

And legth does matter, as the games tends to go cheaper. For example, as of last year, Horizon Zero down has a feature all year long on the big markets in top10 and top 20. The game is close to 10M or even above that and Horizon is not bigger that Spider Man.

EDIT: 10M, not 15M.

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And those markets make up the majority of game sales. If Odyssey and Breath of the Wild are charting higher in those territories, while not even counting digital sales, then you can be certain other territories won't make up the difference for Spider-Man. But we won't know what's selling more in the US until January NPD results here in a week or two.

Spider-Man won't catch Odyssey, but I could see it catching BOTW, though long term BOTW will sell more because the PS4 will be on its way out and the Switch is only halfway through its life.

 

[Le Dude]

I do get the impression that Spider-Man will have unusually long legs for a Sony First-Party title, so I wouldn't be surprised if it does end up outpacing Mario Odyssey (especially if a new 3D Mario is announced next year).

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Even if a new 3D Mario is announced next year, the PS5 is getting announced next year which will dent Spiderman's legs.

 

[Jbone115]

You guys are crazy. Smash is no where near as popular as you all think. It's not Pokemon or GTA levels.

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We're talking exclusive sales, so GTA doesn't count here. Individual Pokémon games are limited by having annual sequals while smash won't have a sequel for many years.

I still voted for Pokémon, but I'm not confident about it tbh.

 

[Jbone115]

Even if a new 3D Mario is announced next year, the PS5 is getting announced next year which will dent Spiderman's legs.

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...unless Spider-Man gets a PS5 port (or PS5 backwards compatibility is heavily advertised).

Edit: Then again, if we are counting ports, than MK8/MK8D would probably win.

 

[Le Dude]

...unless Spider-Man gets a PS5 port (or PS5 backwards compatibility is heavily advertised).

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Even if backwards compatibility is heavily advertised, I think it's safe to say that a new console will hurt its legs. Generally speaking, most people don't buy a new console to buy old games. I think BC is more of an incentive to upgrade than an incentive to buy older games.

If it gets a PS5 port then you have to add in BOTW's Wii U sales. And even that wouldn't really be a fair comparison since BOTW launched same day on both platforms and likely didn't have many repeat sales, whereas Spider-Man would since the new upgraded version would launch later and likely feature performance improvements.

 

[Deleted member 49804]

30 million copies on a console base of 40 million? I just don't see it. Even with PC sale included, it's still a console focused game, and with the most successful games in the franchise being developed by Bungie, I just don't think 343 have it in them to create something that captures an audience that large. But hey, it'd be cool to be proved wrong.

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30 million copies is a pipe dream, but 30 million players is definitely possible.
Your install base assumption is wrong. Halo: Infinite will be cross gen and when the game releases in 2020, there will be 50 million Xbox One. On top of that you get every of the next gen Xbox as additional console install base.

 

[Andromeda]

Even if a new 3D Mario is announced next year, the PS5 is getting announced next year which will dent Spiderman's legs.

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With BC Spiderman will continue selling on PS5 most particularly considering the game has a dynamic resolution so it's going to be locked at max resolution of native 4K on PS5 so worthwhile for many.

 

[Logan Hardy]

I disagree. both botw and odyssey will keep on selling long after spiderman has stopped. i guess we can't be sure now and will have to wait until those two titles are completely done selling, but i feel confident that both will end up with considerably higher LTDs than spiderman. spiderman may be above botw at right now tho since we don't know how much it sold in december, but it won't keep the lead for long.

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You sure are in full force today lol

 

[SuperFakerBros]

With BC Spiderman will continue selling on PS5 most particularly considering the game has a dynamic resolution so it's going to be locked at max resolution of native 4K on PS5 so worthwhile for many.

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That's not quite how it works. For the overwhelming majority of games, their sales slow to a crawl after some time. The game isn't going to keep selling well all throughout the PS4's last years or on the PS5. At some point, sales of the game will become negligible

 

[Deleted member 10737]

You sure are in full force today lol

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i'm sorry if in sales threads people talk about actual sales and not wishes 🙃

 

[SuperFakerBros]

Context is everything , Nintendo games are not fighting with big 3rd party games for their survival unlike Sony and Xbox.

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A huge chunk of Switch owners are multiplatform owners, I believe over 50% in the US, so, for many of us, it is having to fight against big 3rd party titles. Besides, considering that the big reason to get a Switch are Nintendo's games, that also has to mean you want their games enough in particular to get the system in the first place

 

[Zelretch]

just a little fact for those Super Mario Odyssey vs Spider-man conversations: Super Mario Odyssey got to 9m faster than Spider-man (relatively to their respective launches)

And also if we count TLOU numbers for PS3 and PS4 we should also count Wii U BotW numbers which will probably put it at around +13m.

Also as a last comment, i think people are underestimating the probable growth of Switch userbase this 2 years and what that will mean for their first party evergreens, right now they have sold and incredible amount in a 32m userbase and its beast years are still ahead.

 

[Deleted member 8674]

Pokemon on the Switch. I mean are you kidding?

 

[goldenpp73]

You guys are crazy. Smash is no where near as popular as you all think. It's not Pokemon or GTA levels.

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Smash sold 12 million its first month. Smash will outsell every pokemon game ever made aside red and blue and possibly gold and silver. Don't be one of those people.

 

[Sony]

A popular game for the console with the biggest install base.

 

[Deleted member 10737]

A popular game for the console with the biggest install base.

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username checks out
as it has been pointed out several times in this threads, ps4's userbase isn't really that important in the context of this thread. it has sold 3 times as much as switch, but doesn't have any first party title that has sold as much as the biggest selling first party title on switch (mario kart at 15 million). the attach rate of first party titles on nintendo platforms has always been much higher than other platforms, but specially with switch it's extremely high and people seem to be buying the switch for these games, whereas the vast majority of people are buying the ps4 for the 3rd party multiplat games and not the exclusives.

 

[Geinrendour]

I understand there's a lot of people who like it, but I don't know why people Part II will sell tons of tons of copies. It will do pretty good but no insane numbers.

 

[Jbone115]

I understand there's a lot of people who like it, but I don't know why people Part II will sell tons of tons of copies. It will do pretty good but no insane numbers.

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I think the Last of Us Pt 2 will have insane sales right out of the gate (8-10M in first 2 months) and then moderate legs. The PS5 is really the biggest factor limiting its potential imo.

 

[Saint-14]

someone said spider-man, meaning they think it can be the best selling exclusive game of the generation
mario odyssey and smash have already outsold spiderman. spiderman was at 9 million by the end of november, and anyone who knows anything will tell you that those games will keep selling for longer and at a higher pace than spiderman.
and they're not exactly exclusives but it has been outsold by mario kart 8, and will probably be outsold by botw.
you're free to believe that spiderman will somehow go from 9 million to the the 25 or higher that the best selling exclusive game of the generation will end up at, but most people will tell you that's just impossible.

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That's not what I'm talking about though, you claimed that it got outsold while there is nothing to support your claim.

I'm also not sure why you're downplaying the sales power of Sony exclusives throughout their lifetime, Horizon sold 2.6 million in its first two weeks and ended up over 7.4 in a year, Uncharted 4 did 2.7 million in a week and ended up over 8,7 million in less than 8 months, Spider-Man is already much bigger than all of them so it's not impossible or some far fetched thought for people to think it will be the best selling exclusive.

 

[CanisMajoris]

I understand there's a lot of people who like it, but I don't know why people Part II will sell tons of tons of copies. It will do pretty good but no insane numbers.

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First one did 17+m and when people say it released on 2 platforms they somehow forget that PS4 launched few months after games release. ~20m is very doable and that's pretty "insane" for an exclusive.

 

[Deleted member 10737]

That's not what I'm talking about though, you claimed that it got outsold while there is nothing to support your claim.

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based on the numbers we have, it has been outsold. should we make up numbers because we don't have them? spiderman likely did super well in december but it won't be enough to even get it in the running to be a contender for best selling exclusive of the generation.

I'm also not sure why you're downplaying the sales power of Sony exclusives throughout their lifetime, Horizon sold 2.6 million in its first two weeks and ended up over 7.4 in a year, Uncharted 4 did 2.7 million in a week and ended up over 8,7 million in less than 8 months, Spider-Man is already much bigger than all of them so it's not impossible or some far fetched thought for people to think it will be the best selling exclusive.

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i'm not downplaying anything. sony this gen has had amazing first party output and the games are doing extremely well.
i don't know what to say, you're free to think spiderman has a chance of being the best selling exclusive of the generation but from what we know, it's impossible. there's a reason it has only be mentioned by very few people in this thread.