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Which Exclusive will end up selling the most? ( SSB: Ultimate, TLOU:Part 2, Halo Infinite)
- Thread starter BladeRunner2099
- Start date
You know what ? Im gonna say it. TLOU Part II will sell 20-25 millions of copies between PS4 and PS5. At least.
Are we gonna count the 3rd version of Pokemon towards Gen 8's sales like the likely port of TLoU2's sales between PS4/PS5? Main titles usually go around 15m and the extra version released a year later usually sell half of that.
Oh oh, mostly Wii Sports, Kart games, Wii Fit! Man i was wrong!!!!
Ultimate numbers are 12 million, so many other exclusives are way higher than that.
1. Smash Ultimate - It already sold over 12 M in less than a month and will continue to have strong legs for at least the next 3 years alongside a growing Switch install base. With the crazy amount of content it currently has and will be getting in the future, I fully expect Nintendo to take their time with the next installment in the series, giving Ultimate a shelf life of 5 years or more. I wouldn't be surprised if the game doubled its sales by the time the sequel is released and ended up in the neighborhood of 25-30 M.
2. Toss-up between Pokemon Gen 8 and The Last of Us Part 2. The former has a higher ceiling while the latter has a higher floor. If Gen 8 is a huge leap forward that captures people's attention like BotW and has an explosive sales growth similar to other major Switch releases, I can see it handily clearing the 20 M mark. If not, it'll probably settle in the mainline games' usual 15-17 M range. TLoU 2 is gonna be more anticipated than its predecessor, will likely get deep discounts a few years after its release and a potential PS5 remaster, which should help it reach 20 M.
3. See above.
4. Halo Infinite - If we're talking actual unit sales, not 'Game Pass download numbers', I don't see how Halo can compete with the other three barring a huge spike in popularity that the series has never really experienced in the past. With the way things are going right now, Halo Infinite will be lucky to outsell Animal Crossing Switch, let alone Pokemon or Smash.
2. Toss-up between Pokemon Gen 8 and The Last of Us Part 2. The former has a higher ceiling while the latter has a higher floor. If Gen 8 is a huge leap forward that captures people's attention like BotW and has an explosive sales growth similar to other major Switch releases, I can see it handily clearing the 20 M mark. If not, it'll probably settle in the mainline games' usual 15-17 M range. TLoU 2 is gonna be more anticipated than its predecessor, will likely get deep discounts a few years after its release and a potential PS5 remaster, which should help it reach 20 M.
3. See above.
4. Halo Infinite - If we're talking actual unit sales, not 'Game Pass download numbers', I don't see how Halo can compete with the other three barring a huge spike in popularity that the series has never really experienced in the past. With the way things are going right now, Halo Infinite will be lucky to outsell Animal Crossing Switch, let alone Pokemon or Smash.
Especially the devs in Japan, they are rarely in right away at the launch of a system. I'm sure lots of devs are still making new PS4 games even with the dev kits likely being given out.
Not counting Halo because gamepass messes it, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe. After that probably Smash because it will have more legs than Pokemon (although Pokemon will sell faster)
some of people predictions about TLOU2 are....insane. Like the 17m number is being thrown a lot but those 17m were after 5 years and a remaster in a different consoles. Smash Ultimate will probably surpass that in its first year (since it sold 12m in less than a month) and this time TLOU will not have the luck of having a remaster for more double or triple dippers since PS5 will probably have retro compatibility with PS5.
i can see TLOU2 reaching 20m after 5 years, but by then Pokemon and Smash would have already surpassed that number.
Also Pokemon will be the one that sells the most within its first year, more than 20m for sure because not only it will be a huge seller in the current switch userbase but with the new revision if cheaper it will bring so much new people.
some of people predictions about TLOU2 are....insane. Like the 17m number is being thrown a lot but those 17m were after 5 years and a remaster in a different consoles. Smash Ultimate will probably surpass that in its first year (since it sold 12m in less than a month) and this time TLOU will not have the luck of having a remaster for more double or triple dippers since PS5 will probably have retro compatibility with PS5.
i can see TLOU2 reaching 20m after 5 years, but by then Pokemon and Smash would have already surpassed that number.
Also Pokemon will be the one that sells the most within its first year, more than 20m for sure because not only it will be a huge seller in the current switch userbase but with the new revision if cheaper it will bring so much new people.
Twitch streamer will have a huge impact, too (if the game lives up to expectations).
With Ninja, Summit and Doctor Disrespect 3 of the biggest streamers are huge Halo fans.
Timing is key here. If you release just behind a surprise hit like Apex, you lose. If you release after people got board about the last big thing, you win.
Your post that I responded too literally asked if smash can make the list THAT ALREADY HAS SMASH ON IT.
Name me exclusives that sold more on a single system than any game on said list. Go ahead.
Someone mentioned it earlier, but if we use cross gen exclusives, Mario Kart 8 will be the easy winner.
You countin the potential third version sales like you are for the next gen sales for
I meant so many other exclusives are higher than current Smash Ultimate numbers.
Plus this list is based on NPD data, it only contains USA.
I mainly discuss the worldwide numbers. USA has always been good for Nintendo.
You still haven't answered my question, what games that are exclusives have sold better than Smash this gen? Mario Kart 8D and Zelda BotW? GoW and Spiderman have done great but they will not outsell Smash even by the time the PS5 is out.
Even if we take other countries into account Nintendo would still take the cake, even with them not doing that great in Europe.
what if Halo Infinite is a platform on which all near-future Halo 'experiences' will be built? what if Halo Infinite is straight-up 'Halo as a service'?
OP
OP
Which of these games above has the highest chance of blowing up on Twitch?
I think its Halo and we know what Twitch can do, create monsters like Fortnite and Apex Legends.
Halo should not be underestimated, I think if they give a solid upgrade on Halo 5 MP, then it will be really successful on Twitch and in Sales. Won't outsell Smash probably but will sell a lot.
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I keep on going
Back and forth between smash and Pokémon.. I think detective pikachu and Go will drive people to Pokémon.
On the other hand I think these DLC fighters with popular 3rd party characters might be enough for people to Smash (Persona 5 fans?). Imagine if you have fans of Doom or Halo or Fallout
Back and forth between smash and Pokémon.. I think detective pikachu and Go will drive people to Pokémon.
On the other hand I think these DLC fighters with popular 3rd party characters might be enough for people to Smash (Persona 5 fans?). Imagine if you have fans of Doom or Halo or Fallout
Halo just hasn't been the same since the heyday of Halo 3, ever since then it's been on a steep decline. I hear no one talking about Halo anymore, only place I hear about it is in enthusiast circles such as this.
Agreed, and I'm saying this as someone who was (and kind of still is) enamored by Halo 5's gameplay - Halo isn't percieved the same way it used to be.
My thought is just this - if Halo Infinite turns out to be a Halo 'platform', with new and genuinely interesting content being dropped throughout the year every year for a couple of years, then that's a product MS can bolster and market and sell for many years to come.
I voted Smash.
No one talked about God of War either. Then it got the reimagining it needed. I would wait to see what Halo Infinite is before writing it off.
No one talked about God of War either. Then it got the reimagining it needed. I would wait to see what Halo Infinite is before writing it off.
...Ultimate numbers were 12 million....after less than a month (Dec. 7th - Dec. 31st). Who knows what they are a month and a half later.
What are these other exclusives that are way higher?
I really don't understand why people considerer the 17m figure for TLOU (PS3+PS4) but forget about MK8D(WiiU+NSW).
If only that's how game sales worked... Every Sony exclusive so far would've handily outsold Smash.
But that's not true.
Voted Pokémon, but it could very easily be Smash Brothers. Both are sales monsters and whilst hype for a new generation is high and the sales potential on Switch is much more than on 3DS, Smash does have the advantage of not having second versions and then remakes and new generations cutting it's legs as it'll be the only smash for the whole generation. Still would put my money on Pokémon though.
Don't think the last of us despite its inevitable huge sales has a chance against either to be honest. Nintendo IPs are too strong, especially when on a console as successful and appealing as the Switch. Just look at how the biggest Nintendo games did on the Wii. No other exclusives in that console generation got close to the numbers Nintendo were pulling. And the Switch is going to sell in the same ballpark as the Wii if not more (I think so anyway) and the core franchises are the ones really benefiting this time, not just the more casual-oriented ones. Also there's the huge advantage Nintendo have of the millions their games sell in Japan. Sony's first party games are irrelevant there. I don't think any has sold more than 300,000 on the PS4 (correct me if I'm wrong).
I don't know why Halo Infinite is even an option in the poll to be honest. An argument can at least be made for the Last of us Part 2. The idea that Halo can do better than games with wider appeal on consoles selling double if not more is just absurd. It will do well of course, but lets not kid ourselves. Sony and Nintendo's first party exclusive games are just a cut above commercially speaking.
Don't think the last of us despite its inevitable huge sales has a chance against either to be honest. Nintendo IPs are too strong, especially when on a console as successful and appealing as the Switch. Just look at how the biggest Nintendo games did on the Wii. No other exclusives in that console generation got close to the numbers Nintendo were pulling. And the Switch is going to sell in the same ballpark as the Wii if not more (I think so anyway) and the core franchises are the ones really benefiting this time, not just the more casual-oriented ones. Also there's the huge advantage Nintendo have of the millions their games sell in Japan. Sony's first party games are irrelevant there. I don't think any has sold more than 300,000 on the PS4 (correct me if I'm wrong).
I don't know why Halo Infinite is even an option in the poll to be honest. An argument can at least be made for the Last of us Part 2. The idea that Halo can do better than games with wider appeal on consoles selling double if not more is just absurd. It will do well of course, but lets not kid ourselves. Sony and Nintendo's first party exclusive games are just a cut above commercially speaking.
So we're just gonna ignore the fact that Halo will be on PC as well? In a market that is long starved for a new Halo game?
TLOU is the leggiest game ever from Sony. It still appears on european charts 6 years from its release.
It is going to be freaking gigantic. Bigger than Spiderman. Sony also have a very good track record on discouting their flagship first party titles (see Spiderman for example), so it is going to do VERY well with the "casual" price sensitive audience too.
It is also the sequel to, arguebly, one of the most revered games of last gen. A game that sold 17 million units (PS3 + PS4). We are seeing every single Sony IP (except GT) vastly increasing in popularity and sales this gen. It will be no different with TLOU2.
It will also probably be one of the best reviewed games of the entire generation. Maybe the best reviewed Sony game since Uncharted 2. I mean, UC4 with all its problems got 93 MC. Imagine the sequel to TLOU?
I am expecting 20+ million, breaking Spiderman's record as Sony's fastest selling game ever.
Also, BR mode on multiplayer could attract a whole new audience to the game.
THAT SAID...
Super Smash Bros Ultimate is a fucking gigantic monster, which will easily hit 20 million. So, that one is probably still going to be at the top.
Pokemon Switch also has a chance of topping both of them, especially if the Detective Pikachu movie blows up.
Halo Infinite is the most difficult to predict. It will probably launch on 3 different platforms too. Xbox One, NextBox and PC. If it has a Battle Royale mode it could become reaaaally big, so who knows. All in all it depends on NextBox sucess too.
It is going to be freaking gigantic. Bigger than Spiderman. Sony also have a very good track record on discouting their flagship first party titles (see Spiderman for example), so it is going to do VERY well with the "casual" price sensitive audience too.
It is also the sequel to, arguebly, one of the most revered games of last gen. A game that sold 17 million units (PS3 + PS4). We are seeing every single Sony IP (except GT) vastly increasing in popularity and sales this gen. It will be no different with TLOU2.
It will also probably be one of the best reviewed games of the entire generation. Maybe the best reviewed Sony game since Uncharted 2. I mean, UC4 with all its problems got 93 MC. Imagine the sequel to TLOU?
I am expecting 20+ million, breaking Spiderman's record as Sony's fastest selling game ever.
Also, BR mode on multiplayer could attract a whole new audience to the game.
THAT SAID...
Super Smash Bros Ultimate is a fucking gigantic monster, which will easily hit 20 million. So, that one is probably still going to be at the top.
Pokemon Switch also has a chance of topping both of them, especially if the Detective Pikachu movie blows up.
Halo Infinite is the most difficult to predict. It will probably launch on 3 different platforms too. Xbox One, NextBox and PC. If it has a Battle Royale mode it could become reaaaally big, so who knows. All in all it depends on NextBox sucess too.
I think Halo Infinite will sell higher than most people (15-20m), but I dont see it overtaking Smash or Pokemon.
This is more interesting than I think a lot of people are realising.
Its tempting to just point to Pokémon. But it's actually been 20 years since a Pokémon game sold more than 18 million units. That includes every ds game (Highest was 17.6 million), and that platform was significantly more successful than the switch.
I see two scenarios: one, the game is a genuine evolution for the franchise, and it sees heights of 25 million or so. For that possibility i have voted for it, as it's what I hope will happen.
On the other hand I think we need to acknowledge the strong possibility that like all DS and 3DS games, it sells between 16-20 million. In that case it will he bested easily by smash and probably TLOU too.
All considered I would guess:
1. Pokémon: 25 million
2. Smash bros: 23 million
3. TLOU: 19 million
4. Halo: 17 million
With the possibility that Pokémon falls between 3 and 4.
Its tempting to just point to Pokémon. But it's actually been 20 years since a Pokémon game sold more than 18 million units. That includes every ds game (Highest was 17.6 million), and that platform was significantly more successful than the switch.
I see two scenarios: one, the game is a genuine evolution for the franchise, and it sees heights of 25 million or so. For that possibility i have voted for it, as it's what I hope will happen.
On the other hand I think we need to acknowledge the strong possibility that like all DS and 3DS games, it sells between 16-20 million. In that case it will he bested easily by smash and probably TLOU too.
All considered I would guess:
1. Pokémon: 25 million
2. Smash bros: 23 million
3. TLOU: 19 million
4. Halo: 17 million
With the possibility that Pokémon falls between 3 and 4.
...how can you expect it to become the best selling exclusive by doing just 15 to 20 millions?
I don't see Halo breaking 20M unless it goes F2P. It'll be the lowest on the above list. Ultimate will sell >25m and be at the front of the list.
I do however agree with others that Halo Infinite will be the most profitable of all on the list.
It's Smash or Pokémon. Halo doesn't stand a chance and even if it did, we'll probably never know. Plus as other have said, GamePass makes sales on Xbox kind of hard to compare to begin with. As for TLOU, the first game's numbers combined numbers are non-trivially inflated by its cross-gen release being perfectly timed for maximum double dipping. Now, they could probably pull it off again with the sequel, but either way it's definitely not doing numbers in the mid- (or even upper-) 20 millions like Smash will and Pokémon might. And if Sony supports PS4 software playback on PS5, which they probably will, then it's possible a next-gen port might not do the same kind of numbers as TLOU Remastered (especially if say, Sony supports X1X-style enhancements for last-gen titles). Plus, for the purpose of this comparison I'm not sure how valid it is to include theoretical next gen sales anyway? We're talking about current gen games after all.
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yeah probably. i guess most of the people who voted for tlou2 probably think that as well.
unless you think tlou2 will do 25 to 30 (which is impossible) million, it has no chance of being the best selling exclusive.
Yeah. That was way before launch, as we get closer to Ultimate's launch it was obvious it would be a monster and will easily reach 20m+ copies.
However, this year's Pokémon game will break all the records Smash broke last year and will probably be the fastest selling video game ever.
i can guess why...
also people who consider a hypothetical ps5 port for tlou2, i thought the thread was about exclusives? as in, only what the game can do on ps4