Which movie will do better at the box office- Toy Story 4 or Pokemon: Detective Pikachu?

Which one will do better at the box office?

  • Toy Story 4

  • Pokemon: Detective Pikachu


Results are only viewable after voting.

Phantom Thief

Member
Oct 25, 2017
27,484
Toy Story 4 is a brand new entry in one of the, if not the, most beloved movie franchise of all time (certainly on the animated side of things). It's by Pixar (almost always a sign of success), and it's bound to do well as a result. Nonetheless, some factors against it include it being a fourth entry where the third one concluded things, leading to general audience distaste, and lower buzz in pre-release metrics than expected.

Detective Pikachu is the first live action Pokemon movie. Pokemon is the biggest franchise in the world, so Detective Pikachu has that going for it. Pre-release buzz and impressions are overwhelmingly positive, and there's an all-star cast that's pushing it. Nonetheless, Detective Pikachu launches just a couple of weeks after Avengers, and it's a video game movie, which Hollywood has literally never done with.

They're both movies that could be seemingly successful, but both have legitimate concerns that can be raised against their box office viability. Which one do you expect to do better, and why?
 

Chindogg

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,153
East Lansing, MI
Toy Story 4's starting to get super long in the tooth. It ended perfectly at 3 and people are starting to burn out.

Detective Pikachu is at least something new and interesting. And stars a PoC human actor.
 

MANUELF

Member
Oct 25, 2017
976
I don't see the reason for a new Toy Story movie, it seems like a cash grab and excitement is down from Toy Story 3 while I expect great things from Detective Pikachu
 

Volimar

Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
10,224
Counting international I'd have to imagine that Detective Pikachu takes it.
 

Gartooth

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
5,033
Detective Pikachu easily. It feels more like an event, and it completely overshadowed TS4 when both had trailer drops.
 

jondgc

Member
Oct 25, 2017
792
Reading this thread I feel like Seymour Skinner. "Am I out of touch...no it is the children who are wrong"

Because if Detective Pikachu is in the same stratosphere as Toy Story 4 I will be utterly shocked.
 

Sephzilla

Herald of Stoptimus Crime
Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,256
Pokemon is a billion dollar movie waiting to happen. Toy Story 3 made a billion but I'm not sure if 4 is going to be able to, plus I wonder if a lot of audiences felt like Toy Story 3 was a solid enough ending and want to leave it be.
 

KtotheRoc

Member
Oct 27, 2017
16,197
I think Detective Pikachu is really going to surprise people. Pokémon is coming to conquer movies just like they've conquered every other medium.
 

Mushroomer25

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,933
Pikachu takes it globally, Toy Story domestically. Both end the year in the top 7 grossing flicks of 2019.
 

Duffking

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,254
I think Pikachu, though I'm not fully sure. As you say, Pokémon is literally the biggest media franchise in the world. If the film turns out to be good, I can see it edging TS4 out.
 

Spyder_Monkey

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,364
It depends on how good the movies are. If Toy Story ends up being better than most people think, easy billion. If it ends up being like Incredibles 2 where this would've released direct to video in the early 2000s... it'll still do really well come on. Stop doubting Pixar.
 

Ehoavash

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,462
These sequels Pixar has been pumping out this decade has been average to meh

I was a huge fan of the incredibles but man was that sequel such a boring movie to watch.. really hate the recent same-y sequels they been doing and I feel like toy story 4 might fall under similar traps so I'm just gonna wait till it hits rental

Definitely seeing detective Pikachu day 1 though

...but you story has a huge fanbase too some who are even parents now so who knows.
 

ILikeFeet

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,987
Toy Story, without question. if Detective Pikachu does better, I'd be legit shocked, as would Disney
 

Dishwalla

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
7,551
Boise, Idaho
Toy Story 4, easily. People are kidding themselves if they think it won't make bank. Hell Incrediboring 2 made over a billion dollars, don't see why Toy Story 4 won't do the same.

That said I think Detective Pikachu will do well. Maybe not $1 billion well, but well regardless.
 

Nepenthe

When the music hits, you feel no pain.
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
5,185
Pokemon is the biggest media franchise in the world.

Live action Pokemon has been a fever dream of old fans, and was probably something new fans wanted.

The trailers are self-aware, funny, and full of references.

No way it doesn't outpace Toy Story.
 

muteKi

Member
Oct 22, 2018
6,197
a sunken pirate ship
I've seen enough ads for The Happytime Murders that I do appreciate a lot of what Detective Pikachu is doing different in its take on the same sort of genre, even if I've become rather tired of realistic Pokemon designs where "realistic" is a shoe-in for people to say "grotesque". It's at least not trying to be gross in the way that puppets talking about the various ways they contracted Hep C is, because that's a joke that wears thin very quickly.

I was a little surprised about the poll results until I remembered that this is a videogame forum, and one where people complained for hundreds of pages about the new Pokemon game's art style.
 

KtotheRoc

Member
Oct 27, 2017
16,197
It depends on how good the movies are. If Toy Story ends up being better than most people think, easy billion. If it ends up being like Incredibles 2 where this would've released direct to video in the early 2000s... it'll still do really well come on. Stop doubting Pixar.
Nobody thinks Toy Story 4 is going to be a flop. (And if they do, they should immediately stop thinking that.)

But Pokémon is literally the biggest media franchise in the world, and this movie has been getting a lot of attention. I think it is really going to surprise people.
 

♡♪!?

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,070
Disney will very likely win, unless Pikachu is directed by James Cameron and I wasn't aware.
 

Dwebble

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
3,123
Pokémon is huge, no doubt, but it's unproven as a global movie event. Toy Story movies, on the other hand, are proven blockbusters, with the most recent hitting the billion.

I don't think Toy Story does worse unless it substantially underperforms, or unless Detective Pikachu turns out to be the movie event of the year.
 

Sephzilla

Herald of Stoptimus Crime
Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,256
For what it's worth, here's the box office history for the Toy Story movies

Toy Story - $373,554,033
Toy Story 2 - $497,366,869
Toy Story 3 - $1,066,969,703

I'm not sure Toy Story 4 is going to replicate the success of the third movie, because even when you factor inflation into the equation for the box office of the first two movies Toy Story 3 looks like an outlier. So I don't see Toy Story 4 hitting a billion again, maybe topping off at 900 million.
 

Jie Li

Member
Dec 21, 2018
411
I can't muster any excitement for TS4.

Both Incredibles 2 and Wreckit Ralph 2 were bad.
 

wrowa

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,409
Toy Story is a safe bank. Incredibly popular IP and Pixar reliably delivers top quality.

Detective Pikachu strikes me as more of a wildcard. Pokemon is one of the most beloved brands in the world, but it’s pretty much an unknown quantity on the big screen (at this scale). It takes a bold approach to the franchise and pre-release hype seems high, but the question still remains whether good-looking trailers result in a quality movie and whether this approach to the franchise actuallys ends up drawing people to the theatre.

I think Detective Pikachu could land anywhere between super hit and modest disappointment, so I’m going with Toy Story.
 

GMM

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,425
It’s a toss honestly, Toy Story 4 will do great in the US regardless and decently internationally, but Pikachu has much bigger potential for huge international performance if it blows up.
 
Oct 28, 2017
4,151
People keep saying Pokemon is the biggest franchise in the world as if that matters. The hundred Pokemon anime movies don't even get close to getting mass market releases in most (any?) of the world. If being the biggest franchise in the world mattered, they'd be topping charts all the time.

Now I do expect Detective Pikachu to be wildly more successful than those. But I'd be surprised to see it crack 600M and would expect it to be lower than that. Toy Story 4 may be tired and Incredibles 2 probably hurt it, but Toy Story by name alone is probably pretty much guaranteed 700M and, if it's good, it's an easy billion.
 
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Phantom Thief

Phantom Thief

Member
Oct 25, 2017
27,484
People keep saying Pokemon is the biggest franchise in the world as if that matters. The hundred Pokemon anime movies don't even get close to getting mass market releases in most (any?) of the world. If being the biggest franchise in the world mattered, they'd be topping charts all the time.

Now I do expect Detective Pikachu to be wildly more successful than those. But I'd be surprised to see it crack 600M and would expect it to be lower than that. Toy Story 4 may be tired and Incredibles 2 probably hurt it, but Toy Story by name alone is probably pretty much guaranteed 700M and, if it's good, it's an easy billion.
This is a very odd post. Pokémon movies haven’t received wide theatrical releases in 20 years now, so of course they can’t top charts.
 

chrisPjelly

Avenger
Oct 29, 2017
5,835
Toy Story has a lot of pull, but I honestly think people are a little burned out on it. Maybe it gets great reviews and word of mouth, I don't know, but I'm honestly not seeing any "excitement" for it anywhere. It'll do fine, but it's not going to light the world on fire like the previous three movies. Pokemon is going to fucking explode in the Asian Market, regardless of the movie's quality.
 

Sgt. Demblant

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,657
France
Fuck it, Pokémon, why not.
Toy Story is obviously gigantic but the third movie felt so final that I can see audiences feeling ambivalent / apathetic about the idea of a fourth film. It will still make bank of course.

The real story will be Detective Pikachu 4 vs Police Story: A Digimon Adventure.
 

Kewlmyc

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
11,121
Toy Story. Even if the movie is bad, Toy Story is a franchise guaranteed to make massive bank.

Pokemon has a ton of potential to make money, but how much is still up in the air.
 
Oct 28, 2017
4,151
This is a very odd post. Pokémon movies haven’t received wide theatrical releases in 20 years now, so of course they can’t top charts.
If anyone thought they would, they would see wide theatrical releases. The point is that, even if they saw a wide theatrical release, they would bomb horrifically despite being the most popular media franchise.
 

Ottaro

Member
Oct 25, 2017
738
My gut tells me Toy Story but then I remember Pokemon is the most valuable IP in the world and I also remember how surprised I was by Pokemon Go’s success in capturing mainstream appeal here in the US. Maybe I’ll be surprised again.
 

Chasing

The Fallen
Oct 26, 2017
2,723
I feel a lot of people on this forum really underestimates the international potential of Pikachu; all it needs is solid word of mouth and the show is going to explode. Generations of nostalgia and fandom, especially on the heels of Pokémon GO which is still very much a thing in these markets.
 

Sasliquid

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,915
I think it depends on how good Toy Story 4 is. If it disapoints then Pokemon will beat it but if it’s the same quality as TS3 it’s a safe billion+.

Pokemon has a more of a fanbase who will watch it no matter what and I can’t imagine it’ll set critics circles alight like Spider-verse. A lot of the charm seems to be recognising thins from your childhood and a lot of film critics won’t have that in built nostalgia.
 
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Phantom Thief

Phantom Thief

Member
Oct 25, 2017
27,484
If anyone thought they would, they would see wide theatrical releases. The point is that, even if they saw a wide theatrical release, they would bomb horrifically despite being the most popular media franchise.
I don’t think that’s true at all. The movies don’t receive theatrical releases in the rest of the world because that’s beyond the scope of those movies. They’re churned out annually as companion pieces to the anime, nothing more. Comparing them to DP and using them to determine the potential for DP, even on a broad scale, makes no sense whatsoever.
 
Oct 25, 2017
467
Pixar movies make bank and this will be no exception. Detective Pikachu actually looks really good though and I think it will end up exceeding expectations but I don't think it will come close to surpassing the earnings for Toy Story 4.
 

FTF

Member
Oct 28, 2017
7,828
New York
TS4 and it won’t even be close. So many people here are overestimating Detective Pikachu. It’ll be this year’s RPO (in that a decent amount of people were putting it in their top 5 in last year’s box office thread).
 

immortal-joe

Member
Oct 25, 2017
674
Detective Pikachu will be the latest in a long line of instances where many undervalue Nintendo's brand equity - and that most often includes Nintendo.

I'm gonna roll my eyes out of my skull when the articles about how the movie exceeded expectations start rolling out.
 

Spyder_Monkey

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,364
Nobody thinks Toy Story 4 is going to be a flop. (And if they do, they should immediately stop thinking that.)

But Pokémon is literally the biggest media franchise in the world, and this movie has been getting a lot of attention. I think it is really going to surprise people.
And Disney is the biggest movie studio in the world. And even if I'm not excited for Toy Story, people love the franchise and will turn out for it.
 

ReiGun

Member
Nov 15, 2017
1,506
Pikachu takes it globally, Toy Story domestically. Both end the year in the top 7 grossing flicks of 2019.
Exactly what I came to say.

People are really underestimating how big Pokemon is outside the states. It's one of the biggest, if not the biggest franchises ever for a reason.

Toy Story, meanwhile, hasn't quite run out of steam. The next one is obviously gonna be a success.
 

Ottaro

Member
Oct 25, 2017
738
This thread will be fun to return to when everything is said and done, regardless of how things turn out.