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Which one will do better at the box office?

  • Toy Story 4

  • Pokemon: Detective Pikachu


Results are only viewable after voting.

Ottaro

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,520
This thread will be fun to return to when everything is said and done, regardless of how things turn out.
 

WestEgg

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,047
I think Detective Pikachu will make a billion dollars easily.

I think it could go toe to toe with The Lion King remake, and it might beat that too.
 

ZeoVGM

Member
Oct 25, 2017
76,004
Providence, RI
Pokemon is going to be huge. But those doubting Toy Story are likely going to feel a little silly.

Toy Story 3 was the most successful Pixar movie ever until just this year with Incredibles 2. TS4 is a nearly guaranteed $1b film.
 

marrec

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
6,775
Who even cares about Toy Story anymore after the trainwreck that was Toy Story 3?

Detective Pikachu is going to do numbers.
 

chrisPjelly

Avenger
Oct 29, 2017
10,491
I know people already expect the Detective Pikachu movie to do "good", but people are really really REALLY understating the brand recognition of Pikachu and Pokemon, especially in foreign markets
 

WestEgg

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,047
My predictions:

Aladdin < Toy Story 4 < Detective Pikachu = Lion King

Though if Lion King somehow reviews badly, Pikachu tops it.
 

Rygar1126

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,044
Toy Story 4 by a decent margin. This forum seems like it's in the minority when it comes to Pixar.

I think Pikachu does numbers similar to The Secret Life of Pets, which is nothing to scoff at.
 
Oct 25, 2017
13,246
As of right now, I don't see how TS4 doesn't take it. Unless it's a huge flop critically or something.

Detective Pikachu has a good presence online, but I'm not sure that'll translate to the box office. I can't seem to find any tracking numbers, so that might change my mind.

But, if I had to guess, I'm going to go with TS4 beating Detective Pikachu handily given all the things in favor of one and not the other. Including that DP is launching a couple of weeks after what is likely going to be the biggest movie of 2019.
 

marrec

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
6,775
You mean the best in the series Toy Story 3 at 98% on RottenTomatoes?

You are in the teeniest tiniest minority on that one.

I mean, GTA4 has a 98% on metacritic that don't mean people like it.

Either way, I don't think people are going to be lining up for yet another formulaic Toy Story movie. Can't wait to see how they make Buzz Lightyear forget he's a toy again!
 

Zelas

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,020
People keep saying Pokemon is the biggest franchise in the world as if that matters. The hundred Pokemon anime movies don't even get close to getting mass market releases in most (any?) of the world. If being the biggest franchise in the world mattered, they'd be topping charts all the time.

Now I do expect Detective Pikachu to be wildly more successful than those. But I'd be surprised to see it crack 600M and would expect it to be lower than that. Toy Story 4 may be tired and Incredibles 2 probably hurt it, but Toy Story by name alone is probably pretty much guaranteed 700M and, if it's good, it's an easy billion.
Yeah people are regularly conflating the idea that pokemon is well known with pokemon makes the most money. 00s peak pokemon movies performed like trash riding on a huge wave of various media successes.

Pokemon Go alone has made the IP relevant in a way it wasn't before + its not anime so I exepect it to do better than the previous 5 movies combined easy though.

Everyone is down on Toy Story so a better comparison would be Avengers v Pikachu since they're daring to release in the wake of peak Avengers.
 

Galkinator

Chicken Chaser
Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,939
Realistically, Toy Story 4. I think Incredibles 2 showed us that a long awaited sequel made by Pixar, even an average one, is going to dominate the BO.

But I want Pikachu to win because it looks great, so it got my vote ;)
 

Nightbird

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
3,780
Germany
I don't understand how people are still doubting that Detective Pikachu is in the same ballpark as TS4.

Not only does Detective Pikachu generate more discussions and interest online than Toy Story does, it's also overwhelmingly positive.

Toy Story is going to make money, don't get me wrong, but the reception to the movie so far is mixed with many unsure whether or not they're going to watch it. That would be a basically a death sentence for most other movies. If it weren't for the quality and the nostalgia for the previous 3 movies, it would be a certain victory for Pikachu. But as of right now, no one knows where this new entry will land and it still hasn't convinced people. Hell, after the trailer for Frozen 2 dropped it was like all discussions about Toy Story 4 disappeared.

This will be closer than some are willing to admit
 

Richietto

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,939
North Carolina
Some of y'all don't realize how well Detective Pikachu is gonna do. It's gonna be massive. But Toy Story will also be massive. So just like the poll, I think it'll be a toss up.
 

Panther2103

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,908
I think people will be very surprised at how well Toy Story 4 will do.

Detective Pikachu will do well for sure, but I really don't think it's going to do as well as people on here seem to think.

But this is all speculation, who knows what will actually happen. It all depends on how word spreads upon release.
 

John Dunbar

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,229
detective pikachu has snakes on a plane vibe. i don't think it will end up eating shit like snakes, but i don't see it being a massive global hit, either.
 

Deleted member 6730

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
11,526
I don't think people are underestimating Detective Pikachu as much as they are underestimating Toy Story. Both will make bank, but claiming that Pikachu is going to make over 1.5 billion or even just over a billion are straight up delusional.
 

Kewlmyc

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
26,673
I don't understand how people are still doubting that Detective Pikachu is in the same ballpark as TS4
Because it's an unproven Hollywood movie IP. Who know how general audiences will react after the first weekend in a crowded month. It could do extremely well, but unlike Toy Story 4, we don't have any prior movie box office records to compare it too. We could compare it to the first Pokemon movie, but that would only be to its detriment.

In Hollywood's eyes, Detective Pikachu might as well be a brand new IP.
 

HotHamBoy

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
16,423
Lol @ everyone who thinks Detective Pikachu is going to be as big or bigger than Toy Story 4
 

WestEgg

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,047
I don't think people are underestimating Detective Pikachu as much as they are underestimating Toy Story. Both will make bank, but claiming that Pikachu is going to make over 1.5 billion or even just over a billion are straight up delusional.
I think I'm skeptical of Toy Story because I've been hearing a lot of general word of mouth about it not needing a sequel, but also established IPs aren't the sure fire successes studios are hoping for them to be. The Lego Movie 2 performed well below expectations, and How To Train Your Dragon 3 is doing alright, but it's showing worse legs than the original. Toy Story is a strong brand, but 3 was heavily marketed as a conclusion and "what happens when Andy grows up and the toys have to deal with that?" That's a compelling premise. All the new one seems to be conveying is "Hey, Bo Peep is back!" I just... don't have a desire to see it in theaters unless it turns out to be something especially great.
 

NealMcCauley

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,496
I'll have a better idea once TS's marketing ramps up and we get a proper trailer. The new character teasers have been more baffling than anything IMO.
 

Deleted member 6730

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
11,526
I think I'm skeptical of Toy Story because I've been hearing a lot of general word of mouth about it not needing a sequel, but also established IPs aren't the sure fire successes studios are hoping for them to be. The Lego Movie 2 performed well below expectations, and How To Train Your Dragon 3 is doing alright, but it's showing worse legs than the original. Toy Story is a strong brand, but 3 was heavily marketed as a conclusion and "what happens when Andy grows up and the toys have to deal with that?" That's a compelling premise. All the new one seems to be conveying is "Hey, Bo Peep is back!" I just... don't have a desire to see it in theaters unless it turns out to be something especially great.
We'll see. Judging from what Tom Hanks said and that poster. I think we're getting a different movie than what's being marketed. And hey do you know what else was a different movie than what was being marketed... Frozen... which went on to be the biggest thing Disney has made barring Marvel and Star Wars.
 

Meg Cherry

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,253
Seattle, WA
I think Infinity War, Star Wars, Lion King, and possibly Frozen 2 are all guaranteed $1B films. Toy Story and Pikachu are going compete for that last spot in the top 5 on the global chart.

What's also worth noting is that two weeks into Pikachu's run, Aladdin hits theaters - which may hurt its legs. Comparatively, Toy Story 4 is essentially the only animated release for all of July AND August. That could absolutely inflate the numbers just due to a lack of competition.
 

overcast

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,394
Who even cares about Toy Story anymore after the trainwreck that was Toy Story 3?

Detective Pikachu is going to do numbers.
Toy Story 3 was fucking huge and was an insane critical/commercial success. Don't be ridiculous. The main issue would be that TS3 sent the franchise off too well.

I've been bitching about the existence of a new toy story since it was announced but I'll be there to see it.
 

WaffleTaco

Community Resettler
Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
2,908
Pikachu is an undetermined market. We are going to need to get closer to release before silly polls like this. Meanwhile Toy Story 3 is a billion.

Let's close this thread.
 

WestEgg

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,047
We'll see. Judging from what Tom Hanks said and that poster. I think we're getting a different movie than what's being marketed. And hey do you know what else was a different movie than what was being marketed... Frozen... which went on to be the biggest thing Disney has made barring Marvel and Star Wars.
That's fair, and the movie may surprise. But I think a large part of the draw of 3 was that Andy was basically a perfect stand in for the people who watched Toy Story as a kid and then grew up. That's a powerful connection to the story and you want to get that closure through him. Without that, it just feels like Toy Story is now just an ongoing franchise, and nothing feels particularly special about this movie as opposed to Toy Story 5 and so on.
 

meow

The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
1,094
NYC
whoah I'm apparently way behind on the Detective Pikachu hype because I thought it would by Toy Story easy. But then I voted and Pikachu's ahead.
 

TheAggroCraig

One Winged Slayer
Member
Nov 6, 2017
5,900
I think Detective Pikachu will do well, but Toy Story has a much broader audience appeal but what the fuck do I know.
 

PSqueak

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,464
Pokemon, im feeling TS4 will have a hard time judging from the previews and teasers because it feels like an unnecessary sequel when TS3 had the most perfect ending the franchise could have asked for.