I've seen a lot of discussions all over the internet about how Switch will be in an awkward place next year. This just doesn't line up with my thinking, because Switch is currently in it's 3rd year and will be in it's 5th year within 6 months of next gen console's launch.
Whether a more powerful version of the Switch comes before 2022 or not, I think the current Switch won't be left out of cross-gen ports more often once these new consoles hit. Next year is largely going to be without other next gen consoles on the market. Both PS4 and XB1 sold about 4 Million consoles in their launch holiday, even if PS5 and XBnext sell 5 Million next calendar year, they won't hit 10 Million until fall 2021, 3rd party multiplatform games that are not cross-gen, won't come until at least holiday 2021 and Switch will be halfway through it's 5th year at that point.
In my eyes Nintendo has 2 very clear options with the Switch going forward:
OPTION 1: They can copy the 3DS product line and release a Pro model of the Switch next year. This is closely following the 3DS' timeline, with a 2DS launch in 2013 and the New 3DS line launching the following year in 2014. Nvidia will be using Samsung's 7nm process node at this point and that allows for performance similar to the XB1 in portable mode, and better than PS4 performance when docked. At least in theory. This also opens the door to an iterative process, something Iwata seemed to indicate he was planning to do with the platform, meaning that every 3 years or so, Nintendo would release a more powerful Switch model, setting up a 2nd iteration of the Switch in 2023.
(Just to give an idea about performance, I'm estimating 1TFLOPs portable, 2TFLOPs docked, or 768 cuda cores at 650mhz portable or 1.3ghz docked)
OPTION 2: They can wait until Holiday 2021 - Holiday 2022 and release a Switch somewhere close to a portable PS4 and segment their platform, roll the dice on this new device being a success.
(~1.4TFLOPs portable, ~2.8TFLOPs docked. 1024 at 700mhz portable or 1.4ghz docked.)
Either way, they will address the PS5/XBnext generation before it really has a large chance to get off the ground this time, the PS4 was in it's 4th year when the Switch launched and had already reached 60 Million consoles by the end of the month that Switch launched in, if it had launched 2 years earlier, PS4 would have only shipped about 22 Million consoles. What I am saying is not that Switch 2 has a chance to outsell PS5 if it launches only 2 years after the PS5, what I am saying is that Switch 2 will be closely tied to next generation, whether Nintendo chooses option 1 or 2, and the current Switch will have no issue selling itself next year or even the year after, as multiplatform cross-gen ports shouldn't dry up until at least the year 2022.
Whether a more powerful version of the Switch comes before 2022 or not, I think the current Switch won't be left out of cross-gen ports more often once these new consoles hit. Next year is largely going to be without other next gen consoles on the market. Both PS4 and XB1 sold about 4 Million consoles in their launch holiday, even if PS5 and XBnext sell 5 Million next calendar year, they won't hit 10 Million until fall 2021, 3rd party multiplatform games that are not cross-gen, won't come until at least holiday 2021 and Switch will be halfway through it's 5th year at that point.
In my eyes Nintendo has 2 very clear options with the Switch going forward:
OPTION 1: They can copy the 3DS product line and release a Pro model of the Switch next year. This is closely following the 3DS' timeline, with a 2DS launch in 2013 and the New 3DS line launching the following year in 2014. Nvidia will be using Samsung's 7nm process node at this point and that allows for performance similar to the XB1 in portable mode, and better than PS4 performance when docked. At least in theory. This also opens the door to an iterative process, something Iwata seemed to indicate he was planning to do with the platform, meaning that every 3 years or so, Nintendo would release a more powerful Switch model, setting up a 2nd iteration of the Switch in 2023.
(Just to give an idea about performance, I'm estimating 1TFLOPs portable, 2TFLOPs docked, or 768 cuda cores at 650mhz portable or 1.3ghz docked)
OPTION 2: They can wait until Holiday 2021 - Holiday 2022 and release a Switch somewhere close to a portable PS4 and segment their platform, roll the dice on this new device being a success.
(~1.4TFLOPs portable, ~2.8TFLOPs docked. 1024 at 700mhz portable or 1.4ghz docked.)
Either way, they will address the PS5/XBnext generation before it really has a large chance to get off the ground this time, the PS4 was in it's 4th year when the Switch launched and had already reached 60 Million consoles by the end of the month that Switch launched in, if it had launched 2 years earlier, PS4 would have only shipped about 22 Million consoles. What I am saying is not that Switch 2 has a chance to outsell PS5 if it launches only 2 years after the PS5, what I am saying is that Switch 2 will be closely tied to next generation, whether Nintendo chooses option 1 or 2, and the current Switch will have no issue selling itself next year or even the year after, as multiplatform cross-gen ports shouldn't dry up until at least the year 2022.
