Why the Switch will be fine after other next gen consoles hit the market.

[Orioto]

Also we should start to take a rule into consideration i think:

_The more powerful console will be now, the less amount of games will use their power, cause of dev costs. PS4 saw tons of games with PS3 or slightly more type of graphics for years, especially from Japan.

The more powerful console gets, the more expensive is it to do something worthy of them, but better.. the more past gen games already look pretty enough.
That means on PS5, you'll be fiiiiiiiine with PS4 graphics running great at great iq and framerates. It's not like Horizon Zero Dawn or God of War look bad i mean.
Also diminishing returns. Going from PS5 to PS4 assets will be way less visible than from PS4 to PS3 for obvious reasons.

SO what i'm saying is, the more we progress the more a past gen powered switch will be able to shine. My theory.
In other words, a PS4 capable Switch one day will be way better for ports of games from its period of time.

 

[K Samedi]

I voted Switch pro; that's been my position from the beginning.
The current Switch is at a sweet spot in terms of power, and a real hybrid console, in the sense that it remains close enough to the other machines to receive a port of Witcher 3 with the only concessions being visuals (well worth it for some of us). I expect that Nintendo will take advantage of the intercompatibility between mobile chips to update their hardware every 3 years. And like mobile phones, there will be back compatibility along with some level for forward compatibility.
For instance, Witcher 3 will be Switch "pro enhanced", and Cyberpunk would be Switch "pro exclusive". But the less ambitious games will continue to release on the OG model for the years to come.
If Nintendo doesn't want the Switch to become just another handheld, they need to stay close enough to their competitors; at least that's how I see it.

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This is exactly how I see it play out. Switch will keep getting PS4 ports for the coming years and Nintendo first party games but the Pro will play some exclusives for the graphics enthousiasts who prefer the flexibility but also can't resist the graphical experience. It will make those ports sell to a wider audience too.

 

[D.Lo]

_The more powerful console will be now, the less amount of games will use their power, cause of dev costs. PS4 saw tons of games with PS3 or slightly more type of graphics for years, especially from Japan.

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And by far the highest selling game on both PS4 and Xbone is a PS360 game.

Yeah at this point extra hardware simply costs more budget to develop for as much as it allows more to be done. There will always be a RDR2 etc, but there cannot be too many because only so many games can sell 20 million copies to justify immense art budgets.

Also Switch portable only needs to run games in 720p, looking at games on Switch Lite I don't really see any reason for a small screen to go too much higher resolution.

 

[MrTired]

It's simple really.

The concerns about the difficulty of Switch getting PS5/Scarlett ports is overblown because it already gets very few PS4/XBO ports and those aren't the games selling the system.

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I didn't see that twist coming. You ain't lying though.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

People said the same thing about current Switch, and now we have games like Doom, Wolfenstein, Overwatch, Dragon Quest XI, Witcher3, Hellblade, Outer Worlds, etc. on Switch.

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Because of the tech those games were built for (and stuff like TW3 and Overwatch aren't exactly in good shape either). Given the tech in next gen, I have my doubts.

 

[z0m3le]

Also we should start to take a rule into consideration i think:

_The more powerful console will be now, the less amount of games will use their power, cause of dev costs. PS4 saw tons of games with PS3 or slightly more type of graphics for years, especially from Japan.

The more powerful console gets, the more expensive is it to do something worthy of them, but better.. the more past gen games already look pretty enough.
That means on PS5, you'll be fiiiiiiiine with PS4 graphics running great at great iq and framerates. It's not like Horizon Zero Dawn or God of War look bad i mean.
Also diminishing returns. Going from PS5 to PS4 assets will be way less visible than from PS4 to PS3 for obvious reasons.

SO what i'm saying is, the more we progress the more a past gen powered switch will be able to shine. My theory.
In other words, a PS4 capable Switch one day will be way better for ports of games from its period of time.

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This is a fantastic post. I 100% agree. A Switch (capable) of running the last of us 2, and comparing it to next gen graphics, will be night and day with the current Switch being compared to the last of us 2.

Because of the tech those games were built for (and stuff like TW3 and Overwatch aren't exactly in good shape either). Given the tech in next gen, I have my doubts.

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How many next gen games are going to have better assets and animation than the last of us 2?

 

[Deleted member 59983]

I don't think the next generation will have much of an impact on Nintendo considering it's still over a year away, how well the Switch is selling, and the fact that no other platform offers portability the way the Switch does, at that price range, with that sort of support.

That's where it is at the end of the day is the price range and overall support you won't find anywhere else. You're not playing Breath of the Wild on your mobile phone or tablet, you won't find the latest Pokemon there, you might find microtransaction fueled entries to IP's you love but the main experience is on the Switch.

Many third parties are learning there's an audience for their software on Switch and while ports can't sustain it we've already heard word from a few studios that Switch focused entries to major franchises are coming. Test the waters with a port then iterate from there. Not to mention how many franchises out there simply haven't been touched yet and could easily be brought back on Switch. We all see the lists constantly floating around about what people want to see next and studios aren't restricted to last generation titles either.

Major publishers like Square already have Switch focused divisions going full steam ahead on Switch projects, Nintendo's support is only going to increase as the 3DS fades further and further, and that install base of 40+ million units is only going to get bigger from here.

Nintendo has already proven they don't need certain franchises and publisher support to have a successful platform. Some of the biggest IP's aren't on Switch and it's selling gangbusters still.

With the introduction of the Lite which is going in the opposite direction of more power I don't think the Switch Pro is a thing and Nintendo will hold back for the Switch 2 to make it all the more impressive and motivate a massive install base to upgrade. Native backwards compatibility will be a huge focus and simply let the better hardware run the games better, developers can patch older titles to have higher performance, and so forth making that huge existing library of Switch titles set to go for your new Switch.

Nintendo carved out a niche part of the market for themselves and no one is knocking on their door to fight them for it.

 

[Deleted member 37917]

This is exactly how I see it play out. Switch will keep getting PS4 ports for the coming years and Nintendo first party games but the Pro will play some exclusives for the graphics enthousiasts who prefer the flexibility but also can't resist the graphical experience. It will make those ports sell to a wider audience too.

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If they really go that way and just iterate on the Switch concept (and I think they should), it would also give an extremely long life to the current Switch model, as it would still receive the technically less ambitious games 10 years from now, when the 3rd or 4th generation of Switch would be benefiting from the whole catalogue, often enhanced, along with the most recent games being ported.
Nintendo themeselves could support a given hardware 5-6 years before moving to the current most powerful machine in the family, and so on. It would be great for Nintendo and great for us.

 

[Deleted member 3017]

Switch isn't going to stop selling if it stops receiving ports. It's going to stop selling if it stops receiving top-tier Nintendo games. So, as long as Nintendo supports it with great software, PS5 and Scarlett will have next to zero impact on it.

 

[cardboardboxer]

I voted for #2 but I think the likely year is 2023 not 2022, and I am expecting power between an Xbox One S and PS4 when docked.

 

[Inuhanyou]

Its a different market. Nobody is looking at the switch for high end games in the first place.

 

[thecaseace]

The switch won't be in an awkward place after next gen consoles because:

People buying the next gen consoles are early adopters looking primarily for higher quality graphics. Nobody buying switch bought it for the graphics as reason 1.

Also, those buying a switch bought it for full experiences (two analogue sticks and all the buttons good enough graphics not market leading visuals) whilst on the move our out of the dock. Switch will have this selling point.

Switch will still be sufficiently differentiated from the next gen boxes even after they release and by the time graphics are really falling behind in the eyes of consumers Nintendo will be releasing the next product.

I doubt overall amongst the wider market this will be an issue especially once Nintendo cuts the price to sub £/$200

 

[lynux3]

I think the Switch will be fine for Nintendo games, but I believe any AAA third party support its getting now will pretty much dry up.

 

[MisterSpo]

Yeah I always think this 'problem' has been completely overstated - Switch receives relatively few current generation ports, especially in terms of what we'd call conventional 'AAA' releases. Given the sheer range of titles releasing these days - older ports, remasters, mid-tier titles, family-friendly titles, indies, - Nintendo don't need third-party blockbusters for Switch to continue to be successful. A price-cut and a steady supply of first-party titles, supplemented by the existing array of software types, is more important than chasing 'next-gen' ports. If Nintendo do want more ports of Western blockbusters, they could always chase older series that aren't yet on Switch - BioShock, Mass Effect, Dead Space etc.

I'm optimistic about Switch's future, and not just because it's already receiving a serious amount of third-party support, but because Nintendo won't have the same amount of trouble they usually have during a hardware transition. There's no longer the need to juggle several distinct systems - they can focus on Switch, mobile and (if it comes as a conventional successor rather than an iterative approach) their new system. If you think about it, usually during generational transitions Nintendo and their subsidiaries have been developing for as many as four different consoles at a time. The strain that puts on Nintendo's resources shouldn't be under-estimated and the fact that Nintendo can have a narrower focus with their development resources will be a big positive for Switch in the next 2 to 3 years, regardless of whether they iterate or launch a 'new' successor.

 

[JoelStinty]

I think switch future will be fine Sure the new consoles will take some of the spotlight away from it but that will always be the case. As long as Nintendo and third parties keep delivering games for it it will continue to do well.

I don't know if it is just me but I don't think Third Parties are as crucial as they were before. We've seen a slow down in the rate and quantity these titles are released at. The improvement in technology as meant that games take longer and cost more to make. The ps2/360 years of hundreds of games releasing a year are over and it feels like we get a few tentpole games a year now instead and perhaps a focus more on exclusives then third parties.

edit:
I think we see an upgrade at some point but it will still beat to its own drum.

 

[Łazy]

When those new co soles arrive, the Switch will have the highest userbase. Usually a good amount of third party avoid new userbase for some time.

Nothing guarantees any new console to get a big on early.

They all have their plan. Whether it's a good one or not, we'll see.

 

[MarcelRguez]

I think it will be fine. Sure the new consoles will take some of the spotlight away from it but that will always be the case. As long as Nintendo and third parties keep delivering games for it it will continue to do well.

I don't know if it is just me but I don't think Third Parties are as crucial as they were before. We've seen a slow down in the rate and quantity these titles are released at. The improvement in technology as meant that games take longer and cost more to make. The ps2/360 years of hundreds of games releasing a year are over and it feels like we get a few tentpole games a year now instead and perhaps a focus more on exclusives then third parties.

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A bit of a side-note, but I wish we stopped conflating third-party support with AAA Western games in these threads, tbh. Consoles have never received as many games per year as right now, they just get different kinds of games. Still, I get the point, and I'm of the same opinion.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

This is a fantastic post. I 100% agree. A Switch (capable) of running the last of us 2, and comparing it to next gen graphics, will be night and day with the current Switch being compared to the last of us 2.

How many next gen games are going to have better assets and animation than the last of us 2?

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Animation will remain to be seen but assets are easy.

Their is a verified individual in the next gen thread who has already seen an early 3rd party game that blows RDR2 and TLoU II out of the water.

The tech bump is so big that it allows for something like that. Hence, my doubt about Switch being able to handle something of that nature.

 

[Lord Azrael]

Honestly none of those three options. It'll follow their previous handheld strategy where they'll release an improved version, but not to the extent that it's more powerful than the other consoles

 

[JoelStinty]

A bit of a side-note, but I wish we stopped conflating third-party support with AAA Western games in these threads, tbh. Consoles have never received as many games per year as right now, they just get different kinds of games. Still, I get the point, and I'm of the same opinion.

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For sure! I would agree with that. The democratising of video development has changed the gaming landscape considerably over the last 10 years.

 

[GingerbreadMan]

OPTION D
Nintendo won't care, because they don't see PS5 and Next XBOX as true competitors. They'll focus on Switch strength, which isn't its processing power but rather its portability and its line-up. They'll sell to the hardcore crowds with new episodes of their beloved IPs and to a more casual audience with games like Brain Training and Ring Fit and multiplayer party games. They'll most likely release a New 3DS-like revision, but they'll focus more on QoL improvements (better multitasking, bezel-less screen, better battery, etc.). In 2023 they'll release Switch 2, again out-of-synch with MS and Sony. Indie developers and (hopefully) most of the Japanese software houses will continue to support the console.

As for Western third parties, I think they'll continue to release PS2 HD remaster / PS3 port and the very occasional multiplatform game. They might return to their old PSP strategy: spin-offs and "lesser versions" of games released on Sony and MS consoles (think PSP version of Dante's Inferno or Assassin's Creed Bloodlines).

 

[Zedark]

It's simple really.

The concerns about the difficulty of Switch getting PS5/Scarlett ports is overblown because it already gets very few PS4/XBO ports and those aren't the games selling the system.

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Yep, the idea that Switch will be in trouble when next gen comes is not representative of the actual situation: worst case scenario is Switch gets zero current third party AAA games instead of 1-2 late ports. If third parties are ever going to fully support a Switch, it'll be for Switch 2 where they go in from the start instead of struggling after being surprised it didn't crash and burn.

As for the options, I propose an option 1.1: they will put out a Pro model next year, and then fully refresh the generation (which includes no longer supporting that Pro model) in early 2023/2024. This is basically the PS4/XB1 model, and it seems much more likely to me.

 

[Ganondolf]

Switch 2 will launch around March 2023. There may be a small revision before and maybe other SKU (Docked only) but I would not expect any notable power jump from the small revisions.

 

[LumberPanda]

The Switch will still get 90% of good third party games since those come from indie developers anyways.

 

[monketron]

Sony & MS need to release some Switch-type device that doens't run games itself it just serves to stream them from your console to your bed.

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You can basically do that now using a DS4 controller clipped to a phone.

 

[ThereAreFourNaan]

If Nintendo does a more or less traditional cycle (without a Pro revision for example) I think the new consoles won't kill Switch, but will cut off it's legs for Year 5 and 6. Like, through 2021 it's probably fine, but eventually the excitement over it continues to fade, and the portion of the audience who are interested in it primarily as a console will have more exciting things to focus on.

I don't expect as sharp as a decline as the late-gen Wii though.

The proliferation of game streaming is a big unknown and I could see it going either way. Like it's definitely plausible that in some markets it will really cut into the appeal of the Switch. It's not a 1:1 replacement, but it has enough conceptual overlap that it could definitely threaten it.

 

[Zedark]

Also we should start to take a rule into consideration i think:

_The more powerful console will be now, the less amount of games will use their power, cause of dev costs. PS4 saw tons of games with PS3 or slightly more type of graphics for years, especially from Japan.

The more powerful console gets, the more expensive is it to do something worthy of them, but better.. the more past gen games already look pretty enough.
That means on PS5, you'll be fiiiiiiiine with PS4 graphics running great at great iq and framerates. It's not like Horizon Zero Dawn or God of War look bad i mean.
Also diminishing returns. Going from PS5 to PS4 assets will be way less visible than from PS4 to PS3 for obvious reasons.

SO what i'm saying is, the more we progress the more a past gen powered switch will be able to shine. My theory.
In other words, a PS4 capable Switch one day will be way better for ports of games from its period of time.

Click to shrink...

Yup, for a Switch 2 at 6 inch, a 720p resolution still gives quite a crisp image. Dropping from 4K resolution to 720p gives a 9x resolution drop, which is much more than the extremal drop from PS4 to Switch that is considered decent (1080p -> 540p, only a 4x drop). So, when Switch 2 comes around, it has much more wiggle room for ports in the GPU department. As a result, it should be able to devote more to bandwidth, memory and CPU, such that those are up to speed in order to allow gen 9 ports.

That and Switch' success should hopefully make gen 9 ports to Switch 2 even more abundant than gen 8 ones are on Switch.

Diminishing returns should give devs more wiggle room to port down to Switch 2 next gen.

 

[Secretofmateria]

I worry they will run into a wii u situation. Not in terms of sales of course, but in terms of companies not willing to put the time and money to significantly port down their games to get them running. Of course the switch will always have great indie support, but i feel like as we get further into the next generation, the less major triple a 3rd party games we will see. Im sorry if this comment upsets anyone.

 

[Shini42]

People said the same thing about current Switch, and now we have games like Doom, Wolfenstein, Overwatch, Dragon Quest XI, Witcher3, Hellblade, Outer Worlds, etc. on Switch.

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Most of these games were cut in half performance wise, and all of them were downgraded to the ground graphics wise.
What I'm saying is, even if ports from next gen consoles to switch will be possible, we would face a question: with all the compromises, that going to have to be made, will it even worth it at that point. Personally I think the answer to that question already is "no" for some of the switch ports from current gen.

 

[Everywhere]

Option 1 graphics
Option 2 graphics
Option 3 graphics

Lmao wake up. Nintendo systems don't give a fuck about graphics and it's certainly not the reason why Switch is dominating since its launch.

 

[z0m3le]

Animation will remain to be seen but assets are easy.

Their is a verified individual in the next gen thread who has already seen an early 3rd party game that blows RDR2 and TLoU II out of the water.

The tech bump is so big that it allows for something like that. Hence, my doubt about Switch being able to handle something of that nature.

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We will have to wait and see, but we always hear this vague stuff every generation.

Most of these games were cut in half performance wise, and all of them were downgraded to the ground graphics wise.
What I'm saying is, even if ports from next gen consoles to switch will be possible, we would face a question: with all the compromises, that going to have to be made, will it even worth it at that point. Personally I think the answer to that question already is "no" for some of the switch ports from current gen.

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I think the question changes every generation though. I mean is the last of us 2 on the PS4 going to be unplayably ugly when PS5 launches holiday next year? because a new Switch hardware should be capable of that level of graphical fidelity. Where is that line of "this is good enough"? because frankly, some games look better than others, but we have a line of "this is acceptable" and in something that is also a portable, for a lot of people, that line is lower.

 

[Bomblord]

Above PS4 level performance next year (even docked) is not feasible in the Switches form factor IMO. At least given the current state of Nvidia's mobile tech. Well... especially considering it has to use Nvidia's mobile tech with the 10 year partnership deal they just don't have anything at that level even in the pipeline.

 

[Timbuktu]

If this generation was any indication, the first year of PS5 and the next xbox will be a lot of cross gen games. I'm not that big on AAA games as they are anyway, a few might interest me in any given year, but those would only start to come in the second year of the generation. That's still a couple of years away when next gen hits its stride, the Switch as it is probably has a decent pipeline of games until then. Things feel different with Switch because I'm play a lot more excellent indie games on it than I ever had before.

 

[Bunkles]

Animation will remain to be seen but assets are easy.

Their is a verified individual in the next gen thread who has already seen an early 3rd party game that blows RDR2 and TLoU II out of the water.

The tech bump is so big that it allows for something like that. Hence, my doubt about Switch being able to handle something of that nature.

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I think one thing that will easily wow people for next gen is all the post processing effects that will be available for these games. They could take a game like RDR2 or Spider-Man, load it up with better lighting, particles and effects, solidify the framerate and it would like miles better... even with the same base game.

 

[Tarot Deck]

Not one of the three options, successor in 2023.

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I am going with this as well

 

[FullNelson]

It will be fine b/c Nintendo will keep making good first/second party games which are the main system sellers anyway. It doesn't need a more powerful version to keep selling in my opinion.

 

[Neoxon]

People said the same thing about current Switch, and now we have games like Doom, Wolfenstein, Overwatch, Dragon Quest XI, Witcher3, Hellblade, Outer Worlds, etc. on Switch.

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The problem is that the power gap will become even wider between the OG Switch & the next-gen systems. At that point, it'll probably be Nintendo going it mostly alone with some help from indie developers.

 

[SuperFakerBros]

The problem is that the power gap will become even wider between the OG Switch & the next-gen systems. At that point, it'll probably be Nintendo going it mostly alone with some help from indie developers.

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I think he's talking about the Switch 2 getting next gen down ports rather than the current Switch getting them by bringing up how people doubted the Switch could handle nearly any current gen game

 

[Neoxon]

I think he's talking about the Switch 2 getting next gen down ports rather than the current Switch getting them by bringing up how people doubted the Switch could handle nearly any current gen game

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Oh, that won't be an issue. My main concern is that the stream of current-gen ports on the existing Switch will dry up once the PS5 & Xbox Scarlett come out late next year, even from dedicated supporters of the Switch like Bethesda.

 

[Meelow]

I think people forget that Nintendo has future proofed the Switch and they obviously know that the PS4/One wasn't going to last forever, I can bet you Nintendo has had a plan for a few years on what to do when the PS5 and next Xbox release.

 

[Lobster Roll]

I don't get the clamor for an upgraded or a "Pro" version of the Switch. So long as they keep producing great 1st party content and continue to secure low-graphical-demand Indie games, I'll continue purchasing both on my Switch.

 

[SuperFakerBros]

Oh, that won't be an issue. My main concern is that the stream of current-gen ports on the existing Switch will dry up once the PS5 & Xbox Scarlett come out late next year, even from dedicated supporters of the Switch like Bethesda.

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Well day and date and/or near day and date releases will no doubt dry up by then but there will be no shortage of older PS4/XB1 games to bring to the system, like how The Witcher 3 or Overwatch came out only recently

 

[Hybrid Rainbow]

This is a fantastic post. I 100% agree. A Switch (capable) of running the last of us 2, and comparing it to next gen graphics, will be night and day with the current Switch being compared to the last of us 2.

How many next gen games are going to have better assets and animation than the last of us 2?

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Lol Just by sheer power of the tech, many mature PS5/Scarlett games past the initial launch will run circles around late generation games like Death Stranding and TLOU Part 2. It's that initial launch period where we could see next gen games possibly not look that much better. I'm not sure that Nintendo would try to beef up the Switch to PS4/Xbone level instead of trying to come up with something else though. They aren't going to win any power contest, so you might as well try to leverage your creativity instead of trying to create a portable that doesn't come close to the HD twins.

 

[Neoxon]

Well day and date and/or near day and date releases will no doubt dry up by then but there will be no shortage of older PS4/XB1 games to bring to the system, like how The Witcher 3 or Overwatch came out only recently

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Fair point on that, there are a few PS4/XB1 games that could potentially be ported.

 

[Jessie]

They're gonna do a 3DS. Switch 2 will come out in 2024, and it'll be much more powerful with a compelling gimmick, but the form factor will be pretty much the same and it'll be fully BC.

 

[Thera]

It's simple really.

The concerns about the difficulty of Switch getting PS5/Scarlett ports is overblown because it already gets very few PS4/XBO ports and those aren't the games selling the system.

Click to shrink...

Yep

 

[Jessie]

I think it's generally accepted that if people want to play PS5 games, they'll buy a PS5. Nintendo knows that people are buying multiple consoles and they carved a really good niche for themselves with a portable device, which Sony isn't even competing with anymore.

I think they're more worried about Apple eating up indies at this point.

 

[Mansa Mufasa]

Nintendo has found their lane and are dominating it. There is space for Both a Nintendo console and one of the HD Boys in most living rooms.

 

[SuperFakerBros]

Fair point on that, there are a few PS4/XB1 games that could potentially be ported.

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Yeah and, really, day and date releases on the Switch for major multiplatform titles aren't exactly common, even for last gen remasters like Dark Souls, and I think Nintendo will just continue to push indie games to make up for the lack of major AAA 3rd party titles. Then the Switch 2 comes out and, hopefully, overall support will start off stronger

 

[dom]

Just under PS4-Pro in 2022 lol. It wouldn't be a zombie post if it didnt have the pie in the sky expectation.