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Blader

Member
Oct 27, 2017
26,606
It's also in a Christmas slot and like, Homecoming/Aquaman isn't even remotely as big as the Riami films were back in the day.
Homecoming reversed the downward trend that Sony had been presiding over for well over a decade but it's still hard to overcome the toxicity of three bad movies in one go. It'll be interesting to see how FFH performs and if it builds on Homecoming's gains at all or if we discover there really is a ceiling now for Spider-Man movies.
 

hipsterpants

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,581
Isn't there some crazy stat like the first Raimi Spider-Man adjusted for inflation would have had a 200m+ OW? I thought I saw something like that in the Old Place.
 

Seeya

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,984
Nu-uh no one gets to downplay Aquaman being succesful because it's in a Christmas slot after all the "iT hAS To mOoVe!!" shit it got

All that means is that people had the wrong preconceptions. It isn't like Aquaman opened in line with what ERA thought and then legged into a Juggernaught, it opened bigger and has had good holds, but it's very clearly benefiting from the Christmas season just like... every other film that releases during this window. That would be why this release window is so prized.

Go onto the-numbers, grab a bunch of holiday releases and you'll see that most of them outperform 95th percentile (the shaded area is what 95% of all other films do with a similar opening)

(The numbers projections don't account for release timing, just films as a whole)

Homecoming reversed the downward trend that Sony had been presiding over for well over a decade but it's still hard to overcome the toxicity of three bad movies in one go. It'll be interesting to see how FFH performs and if it builds on Homecoming's gains at all or if we discover there really is a ceiling now for Spider-Man movies.

I would be surprised if it isn't up. Consider the growth in the market since Homecoming and the general growth that MCU films have experienced between phases. Comparing its growth against the rest of the MCU over a similar period will be more telling.

We should hope then that it doesn't only experience a very tepid bump like AMATW. Of course the potential explosion of the genre in China (post IW - Even AMATW was way up, and hanging with previous top solo MCU flicks from pre Infinity War) would have to be accounted for.

And seeing what the new normal in China may look like + being able to decern the overall trend for the CBM genre in China, post Infinity War.
 
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Kenzodielocke

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,840
Isn't there some crazy stat like the first Raimi Spider-Man adjusted for inflation would have had a 200m+ OW? I thought I saw something like that in the Old Place.
Spider-Man 3 adjusted to 2018 would have had a 200M opening and a 447M total domestic.
Spider-Man 2 would have had an OW of 130M, 550M total domestic.
Spider-Man would have had an OW of 180M, 635M total domestic.
 

Seeya

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,984
Isn't there some crazy stat like the first Raimi Spider-Man adjusted for inflation would have had a 200m+ OW? I thought I saw something like that in the Old Place.

Adjusting for inflation is iffy, but something like that.

Looking at butts in seats or gross against the relative size of the markets (and rankings for the year) be a better way to gauge it. Riami Spider-Man was a monster from the word go. MCU Spider-Man is unlikely to ever reach similar critical mass.
 

gitrektali

Member
Feb 22, 2018
3,187
How much from the WW box office does the studio actually get in the end? I've heard the NA box office matters the most in getting profit.
 

Seeya

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,984
How much from the WW box office does the studio actually get in the end? I've heard the NA box office matters the most in getting profit.

Depends on the region.

DOM 55%
INT 40%
China 25%

Different studios can/have negotiated adjustments, but it's not like the old days where studios demanding nearly 100% of upfront grosses led to many theaters going under.

It's a bit of a simplification but not a bad rule of thumb.

You can look at the leaked Harry Potter budget for reference (ignore the funny money accounting that says it lost money, they're lying as per usual and the link goes into it)

harry-potter-net-profits.jpg


It cites the revenue splits are generating a return of 162.122m DOM, 298.06m INT off of a total gross of

Domestic: $292,004,738
Foreign: $647,881,191
Worldwide: $939,885,929

Equaling our to 55.5% DOM and 46% INT.

It's not that cut and dry in practice because on top of the revenue split, some markets have high up front costs of doing buisiness and others (like China) have virtually none.

Let's take a look at Sony's estimated returns and profit back from their entire slate during the year of 2014.

Fun fact, despite having only a 25% take from gross, the expected profit margin after expenses was 21%, exactly the same as their listed INT average. You can compare that overhead against places like Japan, 47% take, only 15% margin!

This is probably a part of the reason that China tells the studios no to easing their take to international norms.

Market — Return — Actual Margin after expenses
Japan 47% 15%
South Korea 47%19%
Germany 44%22%
Spain 44%13%
Belgium 43%26%
Switzerland 42%29%
Russia 42%22%
Austria 42%27%
Italy 41%11%
Australia 41%22%
Brazil 40%13%
Netherlands 40%28%
UK 40%23%
France 39%19%
Mexico 37%13%
China 25%21%
Average 42%21%

I hope that helps.
 
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Nov 1, 2017
3,201
The reviews for The Upside are a lot better than I thought they'd be considering it's been sitting on the shelf for two years and it's getting dumped at the beginning of January
 

Penguin

The Mushroom Kingdom Knight
Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,214
New York
Gonna stop reading BOT
They had me convinced that Mary Poppins Returns and Aquaman's dailies would eventually cross streams, I mean who knows may happen but by that point neither will be making game changing money

 

Seeya

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,984
Whoa Spider-verse over Poppins?



I can't find the post where I suggested it was going to happen but I figured it was possible after seeing the weekend holds w/ Poppins missing tracking by so much.

Still surprised to see it that pronounced and so soon. Tho it makes sense that Poppins would be hit hard by the holiday demographics drying up.

Dem legs on Spiderverse! It should take the #2 slot from escape room very soon.
 
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KillstealWolf

One Winged Slayer
Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
16,069
Wonder if Spideyverse will benefit with that Golden Globe award (and hopefully more to come). No Animated movies until February and for Family related films there's only The Kid that would be King and A Dog's Way Home until then (Neither of which are tracking well).
 

Seeya

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,984
Wonder if Spideyverse will benefit with that Golden Globe award (and hopefully more to come). No Animated movies until February and for Family related films there's only The Kid that would be King and A Dog's Way Home until then (Neither of which are tracking well).

Oh man, another trademark Sony micro budget film that will do next to nothing but still earn money.

Let's check in on where The Haunting of Hanna Grace ended up

Production Budget: $9.5 million
Domestic:
$14,682,696 43.7%+ Foreign: $18,881,335 56.3%
= Worldwide: $33,564,031

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=cadaver.htm

Thanks capitalism


I guess they saw A Dog's Purpose warm 65m DOM and wanted some of that pie.

Last I saw, A dog's way home was tracking around 9-14m OW without marketing having kicked in. A dog's Purpose opened to 18m.

It seems like yet another film in the increasingly lucrative anti tentpole strategy.

Edit: Yep, it only cost 18m to make.

Edit 2: holy balls, Sony has ANOTHER entry in the dog Genre planned for 2019. Also budgeted at 18m.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=adogswayhome.htm

Edit 3: Surprising me, A Dog's Purpose took in over 200m WW off of a 22m production budget. I guess a dog dying on set raised awareness

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=adogspurpose.htm
 
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KillstealWolf

One Winged Slayer
Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
16,069
Oh man, another trademark Sony micro budget film that will do next to nothing but still earn money. I guess they saw A Dog's Purpose warm 65m DOM and wanted some of that pie.

Last I saw, A dog's way home was tracking around 9-14m OW without marketing having kicked in. A dog's Purpose opened to 18m.

It seems like yet another film in the increasingly lucrative anti tentpole strategy.

Edit: Yep, it only cost 18m to make.

Edit 2: holy balls, Sony has ANOTHER entry in the dog Genre planned for 2019. Also budgeted at 18m.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=adogswayhome.htm

Edit 3: Surprising me, A Dog's Purpose took in over 200m WW off of a 22m production budget. I guess a dog dying on set raised awareness

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=adogspurpose.htm

In addition,supposably A Dog's Purpose has a sequel slated for this year.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Dog's_Purpose_(film)#Sequel

Not to be mistaken with John Wick 3, which is coming out the same week, amusingly enough.

Are dog movies the next big thing after the superhero fad is over?

Well Show Dogs bombed, so hopefully not

Film bombed, had a innapropriate Pro-Child Grooming message in it somehow, and one of the key reason why Global Road filed for Bankruptcy last year (After being on the market for a year) Can't get any more bomby than that, but looking at the trailer, it sure did deserve it.

 

berzeli

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,384
Are dog movies the next big thing after the superhero fad is over?
We can only hope it's back in a big pup culture fashion. But it's not like it really truly left;
Beethoven was going strong in 2014


Yes, he is hunting a pirate treasure. Just as any normal dog.

And Air-Bud had a spin-off series that was going strong in 2013


Yes, the dogs are now super heroes. Just as any normal dogs.
 

Seeya

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,984
We can only hope it's back in a big pup culture fashion. But it's not like it really truly left;
Beethoven was going strong in 2014


Yes, he is hunting a pirate treasure. Just as any normal dog.

And Air-Bud had a spin-off series that was going strong in 2013


Yes, the dogs are now super heroes. Just as any normal dogs.


Well they were always super heroes in our hearts

In addition,supposably A Dog's Purpose has a sequel slated for this year.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Dog's_Purpose_(film)#Sequel

Not to be mistaken with John Wick 3, which is coming out the same week, amusingly enough.



Well Show Dogs bombed, so hopefully not

Film bombed, had a innapropriate Pro-Child Grooming message in it somehow, and one of the key reason why Global Road filed for Bankruptcy last year (After being on the market for a year) Can't get any more bomby than that, but looking at the trailer, it sure did deserve it.



On top of that, if you're going to make a dog movie, you probably shouldn't court bad voodoo by sounding similar to show girls. Throw some vague allusion to Homeword Bound in there are something.
 

Deleted member 2809

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
25,478
In addition,supposably A Dog's Purpose has a sequel slated for this year.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Dog's_Purpose_(film)#Sequel

Not to be mistaken with John Wick 3, which is coming out the same week, amusingly enough.



Well Show Dogs bombed, so hopefully not

Film bombed, had a innapropriate Pro-Child Grooming message in it somehow, and one of the key reason why Global Road filed for Bankruptcy last year (After being on the market for a year) Can't get any more bomby than that, but looking at the trailer, it sure did deserve it.


oh shit it's gob
 
OP
OP
kswiston

kswiston

Member
Oct 24, 2017
3,693
A reminder that A Dog's Purpose made more in China than Rogue One.

Which was a crazier stat back before Star Wars died in China. Disney would be thrilled with R1 cash in China now.
 
Oct 26, 2017
35,564
Saw Into the Spider-Verse again with my girlfriend and she loved it.

If winning a Golden Globe doesn't give this movie a boost, I don't know what will.
 

Blader

Member
Oct 27, 2017
26,606
That dog trailer was one of the worst things I've ever seen in a movie theater... until it ended and the entire crowd burst out laughing at it, making it one of the best things I've seen in a movie theater.
 

Seeya

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,984
That dog trailer was one of the worst things I've ever seen in a movie theater... until it ended and the entire crowd burst out laughing at it, making it one of the best things I've seen in a movie theater.



At the very least they got a good VA for the dog. I love how they show the entire movie in the trailer. Sony has the weirdest trailers sometimes.

Let's see what the people involved with it have to say

 

OrangeAtlas

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,107
Remember Max, that movie about the dog who gets PTSD because he had to watch his buddy Robbie Amell get murdered in war (which every Flash fan has done multiple times at this point)?

220px-Max_poster.jpg


maxresdefault.jpg


max-fp-073.jpg






Well here's the sequel:

Max-2-quad-1024x771.jpg
 

Seeya

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,984
A reminder that A Dog's Purpose made more in China than Rogue One.

Which was a crazier stat back before Star Wars died in China. Disney would be thrilled with R1 cash in China now.



The Wandering Earth has a lot of buzz, maybe it will help boost Sci-fi films in China. The genre does seem to be shifting into favor on the industry side.

Who are we kidding, Disney doesn't have a track record of good distribution/promotion in China (Gavin mentions it a lot, but he's far from the only person I've seen mention it).

StarWars is became dead as a doornail in China once TLJ bombed out due to toxic WOM. If that didn't kill StarWars in China, Space Ranger Solo sure did.

https://piaofang.maoyan.com/dashboard?date=2018-01-05
 
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