Wkd Box Office - 11•30-12•2•18 - Ralph repeats #1 in slow weekend. Venom approaches $850M.

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kswiston

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Oct 24, 2017
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This is ResetEra's weekend box office thread. While the OP focuses on the popular weekend tallies, we typically discuss box office throughout the week as well when notable films are playing. New threads are are posted each Sunday morning, between 8-10am PST.















‘Ralph’ Breaking $25M+ 2nd Weekend; ‘Grinch’ Steals $203M+; ‘Hannah Grace’ $6M+ In Slow Post Thanksgiving Period

For the third year in a row, Disney owned the slow post-Thanksgiving period with Ralph Breaks the Internet which according to studio figures drew $25.8M at 4,017 theaters, -54%. Gross-wise, Ralph 2‘s second weekend is slightly behind that of Disney’s previous Thanksgiving second weekend holdovers Moana ($28.2M, -50%) and Coco ($27.5M, -46%). Total by EOD for Ralph 2 through 12 days would be $119.2M. Non-family audiences are showing up big at 44% followed by 38% kids and 18% parents in weekend 2 per PostTrak.

And if you though this weekend was slow, just wait for next: There aren’t any major studio wide releases. In the post Golden Globes nominations period, it’s the indies who’ll look to make a mark: Focus Features’ has the limited release of Mary Queen of Scots, Neon has Vox Lux, Roadside Attractions’ has Peter Hedges’ Ben Is Back starring Julia Roberts, and Universal has the 25th anniversary re-release of Oscar winner Schindler’s List.

Universal/Illumination’s The Grinch rebounded and stole second place away from MGM/New Line’s Creed II, $17.7M to $16.8M. The Dr. Seuss movie flew past the two-century mark with a running total of $203.5M and joined other $200M+ domestic Seuss grossing films as the first 2000 Grinch ($260M), Illumination’s The Lorax ($214M). Second weekend exits for Creed II remained high with four-and-half stars and a diverse pull of 39% Caucasians, 35% African Americans and 18% Hispanic.

Dropping hard at-62% is Warner Bros.’ Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald with $11.2M in weekend 3. The sequel is clearly not up to snuff of its first movie in regards to audience response (B+ to A), and critical response (40% Rotten to 74% Certified Fresh). Creed II‘s second weekend is ahead of its 2015 predecessor ($14.9M) and its running total by Sunday of $80.7M is also raging ahead through 12 days by 25%.

Screen Gems’ R-rated horror film, The Possession of Hannah Grace, with $6.5M over three-days, may not look so dazzling, but this $6M budgeted title with a $12M P&A spend is good enough for Sony. The movie was a low-budget cash grab in the current slow marketplace and we’ve heard from finance sources that anything over $5.5M was considered to be a win for Sony internally. That said, don’t expect the movie to leg out that much. Critics weren’t kind with a 27% Rotten Tomatoes score and audiences weren’t over the moon with a C- CinemaScore and a (gulp) star and a half on PostTrak and a 37% definite recommend. In regards to Hannah Grace‘s CinemaScore, it’s down from Screen Gems’ late August 2016 hit Don’t Breathe (B+) but above this summer’s Slender Man which did a D-, and opened to $11.3M and finaled at $30.5M. Demos were 50/50 male-female with nearly even quads all around, but with females under 25 leading: M25- (25%), M25+ (25%), F25- (29%), F25+ (21%). A mostly diverse draw in 43% Caucasians, 27% Hispanics, and 19% African Americans.

<Click on the Article Headline to read more>


DOMESTIC WEEKEND BOX OFFICE



*Click the chart to view the full source



WORLDWIDE BOX OFFICE UPDATES

Venom - $844M
Bohemian Rhapsody - $540M
Fantastic Beasts 2 - $520M
A Star is Born - $362M
The Grinch - $268M
Ralph Breaks the Internet - $207M
Johnny English Strikes Back - $153M
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms - $131M
Creed 2 - $93M
Robin Hood - $48M








Weekend Box Office Archive and Appendix


Thread Archive

Web links to box office resources

Explanation of Box Office Terms, Abbreviations, and Concepts
 
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Oct 25, 2017
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#2
I guess the next exciting weekend is during spider-verse release. Looks like venom might end its run in China next week so 850m would be the ltd from the looks of it.
 
Oct 25, 2017
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#3
The Favourite's PTA in its second weekend after a notable expansion is better than some other awards hopefuls OW. That's a really good, and hopefully it will continue to do well.

Also really nice to see Anna and the Apocalypse opening to double digit PTA, you can never have too many Scottish Christmas zombie musical films.

A Cool Fish is doing slightly worse in the US than in its domestic market of China where it is just raking it in.

And Maria by Callas is now more than pretty likely to hit $1M now, which blows my mind. It and Free Solo hitting $10M this weekend continues the streak of documentaries doing real well this year.
 
Oct 25, 2017
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#6
Fantastic Beasts 2 going to struggle to make $150 domestic. Amazing. I don't see anyway they string that along for 3 more movies.
 
Feb 25, 2018
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#7
Wow so venoms only 30 mil behind spiderman homecoming. madness

and i thought i overestimated my prediction with 370 mil box office lol
 
Oct 25, 2017
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#8
Will Fantastic Wifebeaters even make as much as Deathly Hallows Part 2 made in its opening weekend
 
Nov 17, 2017
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#12
No way they're still going through with three more Fantastic Beast movies right?
I'd be shocked it we got 4th one. They'll make a 3rd to wrap up the story.
Ya'll are nuts.

Film is still making money. At worst they might force some creative team changes or reduce the budget somewhat.

There is no way that they would burn their bridge with Rowling as she might decide to take future projects elsewhere.


Only way they reduce the number of films is if Rowling agrees to it.
 
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kswiston

kswiston

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Oct 24, 2017
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#13
Fantastic Beasts 1 was at $607M worldwide after its third weekend. FB2 is now 87M behind. Sub-700M total, here we go!
 
Feb 19, 2018
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#15
Ya'll are nuts.

Film is still making money. At worst they might force some creative team changes or reduce the budget somewhat.

There is no way that they would burn their bridge with Rowling as she might decide to take future projects elsewhere.


Only way they reduce the number of films is if Rowling agrees to it.
Wait, she can do that? Can anyone say Disney? Lol
 
Nov 17, 2017
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#23
Wait, she can do that? Can anyone say Disney? Lol
Most rights of these types are "use em or lose em".

There is no way that there isn't a reversion clause in there if films stop being produced considering what a position of power Rowling had when she signed the deal.

I can't see WB letting this happen as the Harry Potter franchise is one the last big ones not owned by Disney.
 

Slayven

You probably post about me on another board.
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Oct 25, 2017
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#24
Man horror movies are easy mode. Come in at 7th place and probably already profitable
 
Oct 27, 2017
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#25
Wow so venoms only 30 mil behind spiderman homecoming. madness

and i thought i overestimated my prediction with 370 mil box office lol
Wow so venoms only 30 mil behind spiderman homecoming. madness

and i thought i overestimated my prediction with 370 mil box office lol
$850 million for Venom is amazing
I guess the next exciting weekend is during spider-verse release. Looks like venom might end its run in China next week so 850m would be the ltd from the looks of it.
If it does do so that would be unusual because it’s outgrossing Infinity War at the same point excluding week 1. In fact it has been outgrossing Infinity War almost every day since day 7 and had some of its best drops yet. Likely because of Aquaman also being advertised by Tencent, funny as that sounds, and Spider-verse is on the horizon which we’ll help with some mindshare.

Infinity War 4th (holiday long) Weekend 5, 5.57, 3.98
14.55M

Venom 4th Weekend 2.59, 5.67, 3.93
12.09M

Infinity War did another 16.27M by day 38, and roughly another 3-4M over the next three weeks. There’s much more money to be made for both Tencent and Sony with an extension so it will be puzzling if it doesn’t get one. It's possible that it has and we just haven't heard about it, stranger things have happened. Also the fact that it is still solidly in second place in China over the weekend.
 
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Oct 26, 2017
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#26
There are some serious flops on this list. Robin Hood with a $100M budget is like WTF and then your eyes keep going down and fucking Nutcracker's budget was $120M.

What's the biggest bomba of the year?
 

Playco Armboy

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Oct 28, 2017
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So what we looking at for FB2's final tally cuz it's slowing down big-time

$155m NA, $60m China, $460m foreign for a $675m worldwide cume? What a drop. Theatre take alone is nowhere near enough to cover a $200m budget plus a minimum $120-150m for marketing.
 
Oct 25, 2017
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#30
Film is still making money.
The worst Harry Potter film in terms of box office worldwide made slightly under $800mil, with just about $250mil in the US

The first Fantastic Beasts made $814mil and $234mil, respectively

This has a strong chance of under $700mil and under $170mil, respectively. With a higher budget.

Film is still making money.
It's really not
 
Nov 17, 2017
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#32
The worst Harry Potter film in terms of box office worldwide made slightly under $800mil, with just about $250mil in the US

The first Fantastic Beasts made $814mil and $234mil, respectively

This is getting under $800mil and under $200mil, respectively



It's really not
At worst it will break even theoretically and make money at ancillary.

To pretend that it is a disaster is disingenuous at best. An outright lie at worst.


That isn't to say that WB won't be disappointed in the result and call for some restructuring in the series. Asking for a re-brand away from the FB moniker for example.
 
Oct 27, 2017
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#34
Creed 2 seems to be having larger drops tho.
Because it made more the first weekend. Creed was more of a WOM that first weekend.

I think it'll surpass Creed dom gross. But I'm not gonna lie. I really through Creed 2 would gross more at this point. It's a real audience pleaser. Dunno?

Edit: Creed had a 49% drop and Creed 2 52%

Not that different.
 
#35
There are some serious flops on this list. Robin Hood with a $100M budget is like WTF and then your eyes keep going down and fucking Nutcracker's budget was $120M.

What's the biggest bomba of the year?
It's probably Nutcracker, but I feel like that those films won't have anywhere the eyes on them that Solo had, since that was a Star Wars film that ultimately failed commercially and solidified it as a non-starter in China. A massive franchise getting blood on its cheek like that is quite notable.
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,669
0
#36
There are some serious flops on this list. Robin Hood with a $100M budget is like WTF and then your eyes keep going down and fucking Nutcracker's budget was $120M.

What's the biggest bomba of the year?
Solo, Nutcracker, Robin Hood, FB2

They were/are all disasters, without debate, but in various forms. Solo probably the worst in terms of visibility just because nobody thought a Star Wars film could lose money
 
Apr 27, 2018
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#37
Bit of a rally by ''The Grinch'.

Looks like Creed 2 is gonna underperform vs Creed.

Not sure if there will be a Creed 3 at this point.
Should be fine, 49% 2nd weekend drop to 53% after opening bigger. Not a huge difference. Creed maxed out at $110m and Creed 2 is at $81m, it will get past that.
 
Dec 12, 2017
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#38
Because it made more the first weekend. Creed was more of a WOM that first weekend.

I think it'll surpass Creed dom gross. But I'm not gonna lie. I really through Creed 2 would gross more at this point. It's a real audience pleaser. Dunno?
Well, Creed 2 isn't as good as Creed.

Also, sorry if I wasn't clear. I'm talking WW, not DOM.
 

Anthony Mooch

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Oct 25, 2017
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#39
Spider-Man is going to have a jumanji/greatest showman style box office run, where it does bad week 1, but just does amazing every other week
 
Oct 25, 2017
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#44
Solo, Nutcracker, Robin Hood, FB2

They were/are all disasters, without debate, but in various forms. Solo probably the worst in terms of visibility just because nobody thought a Star Wars film could lose money
Exactly. Solo is bomba of the decade, right alongside Justice League.

Expectations are everything.
 
Oct 25, 2017
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France
#46
Fantastic Beast is getting Narnia'd.

At first glance, these numbers for Ralph didn't seem that great either considering the budget but after looking up the first one on Mojo, it did far less than I thought ($471,222,889 worldwide) and the sequel seems to be outperforming it.
 
Oct 28, 2017
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#47
Ya'll are nuts.

Film is still making money. At worst they might force some creative team changes or reduce the budget somewhat.

There is no way that they would burn their bridge with Rowling as she might decide to take future projects elsewhere.


Only way they reduce the number of films is if Rowling agrees to it.
Yeah movie is gonna clear 600 ww most likely. They may course correct a bit, but no way the scrap unless Rowling wants to.
 
Oct 25, 2017
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#48
I think Spider-Verse might come out bigger than current predictions. Its got several weeks of rave reviews and a massive ad blitz coming while also building on Spider-Man mania that seems to be going hard this year.
 
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kswiston

kswiston

Moderator
Oct 24, 2017
3,153
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#50
So what we looking at for FB2's final tally cuz it's slowing down big-time

$155m NA, $60m China, $460m foreign for a $675m worldwide cume? What a drop. Theatre take alone is nowhere near enough to cover a $200m budget plus a minimum $120-150m for marketing.
$460M internationally is probably too high. This weekend was $40M overseas. $2.35M of that was from China, so roughly $38M elsewhere. FB1 did $45M outside of China internationally in its third weekend, and ended up making about $146M more internationally without China after that point. With the same legs as FB1 going forward, FB2 would make another $123M outside of China (it will do less than $2M more in China).

$385M (current international total incl. China) + $125 = $510M total overseas.

That would be ~58M in China and $452M elsewhere.

However, drops overseas for FB2 have been worse than those of FB1 so far, so the $510M is probably closer to a best cast scenario.

As for domestic, same legs as FB1 going forward from this weekend would be another $29M, for a $163M total. So far legs have been worse than FB1, and with the crowded market in the second half of this month, I don't see that changing much.


Basically, $675M would be closer to a best case scenario at this point. JL money seems about right.
 
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