Wkd Box Office - 11•30-12•2•18 - Ralph repeats #1 in slow weekend. Venom approaches $850M.

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Oct 25, 2017
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I guess it's looking like Bumblebee is gonna be the loser of the late December sweepstakes. Now watch it be the best reviewed movie of the bunch.
 
Oct 25, 2017
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I guess it's looking like Bumblebee is gonna be the loser of the late December sweepstakes. Now watch it be the best reviewed movie of the bunch.
looks at Spider-Verse
Well at least it will be the best reviewed and most profitable film of the sweeps that is based on a Hasbro toyline?
 
Oct 26, 2017
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Germany
A franchise being a merch juggernaut does not necessarily mean that every film will move a ton of merch. Do kids really want to play with Fantastic Beasts merch, or will it be like all of the unloved Qi'ra and Beckett toys sitting in clearance bins while kids still happily buy Darth Vader stuff?

Also, the redesign really killed the momentum of our thread this week. Wednesday and we are still on the first 100PPP page!
At the very least it should boost the franchise sales as a whole as people talk about HP again. The next movie could be used to promote the rumoured game and vice versa
 
Oct 27, 2017
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A franchise being a merch juggernaut does not necessarily mean that every film will move a ton of merch. Do kids really want to play with Fantastic Beasts merch, or will it be like all of the unloved Qi'ra and Beckett toys sitting in clearance bins while kids still happily buy Darth Vader stuff?

Also, the redesign really killed the momentum of our thread this week. Wednesday and we are still on the first 100PPP page!
Right?

Re: merch: we saw that happen with TLJ toys (the movie was by no means toy friendly).
 
Oct 25, 2017
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I guess it's looking like Bumblebee is gonna be the loser of the late December sweepstakes. Now watch it be the best reviewed movie of the bunch.
You might want to check out the reviews for Into the Spider-verse. It's got a better rating than many best picture potential nominees.
 
Oct 25, 2017
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Bingo. This is between Mary Poppins, Aquaman, and Bumblebee.
I was going by what Kswiss deemed "late Dec releases" in the last thread for the prediction funsies:


But yeah, out of those three it does have a shot at being the best reviewed even if early word on Poppins is good (then again, when is early word not that?).
 
Dec 1, 2017
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Holy shit Into the Spider-Verse was awesome! Easily one of the best superhero movies ever. It's so goddamn funny, touching, great looking, innovative and surprising. Even one of the best movies of the year. Damn it was cool fun!

And then Mortal Engines... gonna drop few lines after the embargo is over in two hours.
 
Oct 25, 2017
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Holy shit Into the Spider-Verse was awesome! Easily one of the best superhero movies ever. It's so goddamn funny, touching, great looking, innovative and surprising. Even one of the best movies of the year. Damn it was cool fun!

And then Mortal Engines... gonna drop few lines after the embargo is over in two hours.
I feel word of mouth is what will make Into the Spider-Verse a serious hit. The great reviews and huge ad blitz will do work as well but I think constantly hearing your buddies or coworkers or kids just constantly gushing will what drives things even further.
 
Oct 27, 2017
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I feel word of mouth is what will make Into the Spider-Verse a serious hit. The great reviews and huge ad blitz will do work as well but I think constantly hearing your buddies or coworkers or kids just constantly gushing will what drives things even further.
Hasn’t Sony taken out some serious money for extra advertising over the Christmas season? Something like 115m? Honestly a lot of the marketing made it seem skipable, but between WOM and the extra adverts it’s all but guaranteed to outperform tracking.


I’m not convinced that Venoms screen count is going to get obliterated unless the relatively late notice (from our perspective at least) makes it hard for theater chains to make adjustments. But Chinese theater chains seem to be a little more reactive/dynamic than at least what I’ve seen in the west.

After I get home (no more phone posts) I’ll go over a few reasons why I do not think that Venoms screen count will get erased (by erased I mean a drop of greater than 60%), unless there is some factual data to support its weekend screencount, and is love to see that resource.
 
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Dec 1, 2017
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So Mortal Engines was a hot razzie mess. It's like an expensive tv series pilot with Weta's awful plastic (Hobbit) cgi. Set design was straight from some cheap syfy series. Even the starter music was ripped off from Fury Road. And the actors, holy shit. It was god awful.

It's a great contender to Robin Hood. I don't know which one was worse.
 
Dec 1, 2017
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Hasn’t Sony taken out some serious money for extra advertising over the Christmas season? Something like 115m? Honestly a lot of the marketing made it seem skipable, but between WOM and the extra adverts it’s all but guaranteed to outperform tracking.

I'm predicting a huge hit even with Aquaman and Mary Poppins around.
 
Oct 25, 2017
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Bountiful, Utah
So Mortal Engines was a hot razzie mess. It's like an expensive tv series pilot with Weta's awful plastic (Hobbit) cgi. Set design was straight from some cheap syfy series. Even the starter music was ripped off from Fury Road. And the actors, holy shit. It was god awful.

It's a great contender to Robin Hood. I don't know which one was worse.
I can tell you which one was probably more expensive.
 
Oct 25, 2017
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So Mortal Engines was a hot razzie mess. It's like an expensive tv series pilot with Weta's awful plastic (Hobbit) cgi. Set design was straight from some cheap syfy series. Even the starter music was ripped off from Fury Road. And the actors, holy shit. It was god awful.

It's a great contender to Robin Hood. I don't know which one was worse.
What the hell is up with Peter Jackson? Its like he sold his soul to Satan so that LorR would be great, only for every other film's he's involved in to be a soulless piece of CGI shit...
 
Oct 27, 2017
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What the hell is up with Peter Jackson? Its like he sold his soul to Satan so that LorR would be great, only for every other film's he's involved in to be a soulless piece of CGI shit...
I feel like he’s more concerned with making sure that weta/New Zealand continue to get big work than he is with making good movies, per-say.

And I think making the Hobbit films with basically no preproduction is an experience that will leave its mark on him for years to come because of the stress/burnout that it caused.
 
Oct 25, 2017
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So Mortal Engines was a hot razzie mess. It's like an expensive tv series pilot with Weta's awful plastic (Hobbit) cgi. Set design was straight from some cheap syfy series. Even the starter music was ripped off from Fury Road. And the actors, holy shit. It was god awful.

It's a great contender to Robin Hood. I don't know which one was worse.
Yikes. Was hoping it would be decent
 
Oct 27, 2017
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Jackson needs someone to rein his ideas in but I don't think anyone has the guts to tell him no anymore. I think Barrie Osborne filled that role during LOTR but since then he's been unquestioned.
 
Oct 25, 2017
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Jackson needs someone to rein his ideas in but I don't think anyone has the guts to tell him no anymore. I think Barrie Osborne filled that role during LOTR but since then he's been unquestioned.
Its doubly weird considering that every post-LotR film he has made has flopped or underperformed in some way, even The Hobbit Trilogy.

You'd think studios would be more apprehensive by now...
 
Oct 27, 2017
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China: As of Wednesday, Venom currently sits at

1.15m/268.73m

Venom Should be just under 270m going into the weekend. With Aquaman hitting, Venom could still do decent in no small part due to sold out showings of Aquaman helping Venoms walkups (Tencent connected and demographic overlap being the key factors). ACF should get some of that as well, not that it needs the help.
 
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Oct 28, 2017
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China: As of Wednesday, Venom currently sits at

1.15m/268.73m

Venom Should be just under 270m going into the weekend. With Aquaman hitting, Venom could still do decent in no small part due to sold out showings of Aquaman helping Venoms walkups (Tencent connected and demographic overlap being the key factors). ACF should get some of that as well, not that it needs the help.
How many more days a film run when it gets extended run?
Do it have a chance of hitting of 880M?
 
Oct 27, 2017
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How many more days a film run when it gets extended run?
Do it have a chance of hitting of 880M?
Extended runs are a duration of an additional 30 days (unless someone knows differently).

Venom has a chance to still hit 880m, but Aquaman is a daunting prospect and I don’t want to speculate too much until we see the weekend coming in.

As an example: In China, Infinity War was originally going end showing on July 9th and sat at 368m.

Jurassic World 2 released of June 15th and Infinity War tumbled around 85% over that weekend. The total run was 379m with the extension. an additional 11m ish over the extension.

This was due to the release on Jurassic World 2 gobbling almost all of Infinity Wars screens and hit after hit of successive big releases that followed. Venom faces a similar challenge but has other factors that may help it. I’ll go over those in a later post tho; it’s not a done deal that Venom can’t reach 880m.
 
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Oct 28, 2017
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Extended runs are a duration of an additional 30 days (unless someone knows differently).

Venom has a chance to still hit 880m, but Aquaman is a daunting prospect and I don’t want to speculate too much until we see the weekend coming in.

As an example: In China, Infinity War was originally going end showing on July 9th and sat at 368m.

Jurassic World 2 released of June 15th and Infinity War tumbled around 85% over that weekend. It’s total run was 379m with the extension. an additional 11m ish over the extension.

This was due to the release on Jurassic World 2 gobbling it’s screens and successive big releases that followed. Venom faces a similar challenge but has other factors that may help it I’ll go over those in a later post tho, it’s not a done deal that Venom can’t reach 880m.
if Infinity war got only 11m in its extended run then i doubt we can expect some thing massively more than that. 15m or 18m at most for Venom in extended run should be a good guess?
 

FeD

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Oct 25, 2017
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What the hell is up with Peter Jackson? Its like he sold his soul to Satan so that LorR would be great, only for every other film's he's involved in to be a soulless piece of CGI shit...
Meanwhile he made one of the most impressive war documentaries well ever...
 
Apr 5, 2018
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What the hell is up with Peter Jackson? Its like he sold his soul to Satan so that LorR would be great, only for every other film's he's involved in to be a soulless piece of CGI shit...
You should really look at "They Shall Not Grow Old". It's a hugely impressive piece of work from Jackson.
 
Oct 26, 2017
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Anecdotal of course, booked tickets for Spiderman for Saturday night (Preview day before official release on 12th in the UK). Grand total of 4 tickets sold so far in the biggest screen.

I checked a few other times throughout the day and was a similar story. Doesn't look any better currently on the official release day either, will need some WOM in my town at least.
 
Oct 25, 2017
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I know we don’t have a thread but this is the closest thing but I laughed my ass off when Bohemian Rhapsody got a Best Picture - Drama nomination at the Golden Globes just now.
 

Playco Armboy

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Oct 28, 2017
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I know we don’t have a thread but this is the closest thing but I laughed my ass off when Bohemian Rhapsody got a Best Picture - Drama nomination at the Golden Globes just now.
What the fuck lol

Like, it was better than I expected, but mostly because the music callbacks and jamming to it in-theatre. It's pretty boring if you don't like Queen's music. More-or-less a serious of throwaway vignettes about how some lightbulb moment inspired a song interspersed with the usual 'obsessed artist pushes everyone away' arc.
 
Oct 25, 2017
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With the major success of Crazy Rich Asians (love this movie), I'm incredibly happy about Jon M. Chu getting to tell another Asian story , this time from my Philippines.

 
Oct 27, 2017
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A theater added spider-verse previews for tomorrow and Saturday, but I'm not feeling $15 for the smallest screen.


Matinees from both. Some good things and some not so good things. Korey dances around it but Martin finally gets him to admit in the last minutes the cg and mo cap largely looks awful.
 
Oct 27, 2017
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if Infinity war got only 11m in its extended run then i doubt we can expect some thing massively more than that. 15m or 18m at most for Venom in extended run should be a good guess?
I’d think that 10m wouldn’t be unreasonable as a floor? But it could still pull an infinity War all the same, it could do anything.

Venom Thursday 1.08m/269.81m
Aquaman (previews) 1.35m/1.35m
http://english.entgroup.cn/boxoffice/cn/daily/?date=12 /06 /2018


Venom had a very small drop on Thursday that was in keeping with its typicalweekday drops Despite Aquaman entering the picture. A Good sign.

Encouraging though, is that Thursday previews/midnights for Aquaman did 1.35m. For comparison:

All credit for these numbers goes to ZeeSoh of Boxofficetheory
Midnight grosses (in Yuan)
Infinity War - 59.5m
Captain America 3 - 16.94m (Without fees so would be higher)
Venom - 15.42m
Jurassic World 2 - 13.63m
Ant Man 2 - 10.36m
Mission Impossible 6 - 10.22m
Spiderman Homecoming - 9.90m
Black Panther - 9.31m
Aquaman - 8.89m
Justice League - 8.78m
Thor Ragnarok - 7.40m
GotG2 - 6.36m
Logan - 5.3m
Wonder Woman - 4.49m
The whole Tencent/Demographic overlap thing we already talked about.

I was going to Seeya this and show the relationship between a films PTA and with how many screens were lost as a result when Fallen Kingdom hit as well as a comparative between the new releases at the time, but I’m tired :p

With the current word being that Aquaman is going to get comparable showings over the weekend to what Venom got in its first weekend, it’s worth noting that, if you compare the amount of showings between the debuts of Jurassic World 2 and Aqua man the current makeup of the top 10 has 30k less showings with either older and/or smaller PTA movies beneath Venom/ACFnow versus then.

Meaning that there’s likely more room to cut lower hanging fruit than there was than when Infinity War got clobbered. On top of Venom having a better ranking on the charts.

The encroachment of the Christmas season with some associated holidays and Spider-verse also being differentiating factors.

Venom has a shorter runtime than Infinity War. This will allow it to squeeze in a few more showings over a similar timespan. The shorter runtime will help it retain showings as chains manage slots for different films.

1h52m versus 2h40m

runtime comparison: Aquaman v Fallen Kingdom

2h23m v 2h10m


While Aquaman may yet break out, it’s no Jurassic World 2, or Venom, in terms of upfront business. The pressure to cut Venom won’t be as severe.

Unlike Infinity War, from Tencents perspective Venom is a Tencent film as much or more than Aquaman. It’s not a secret that a lot of things in China’s film side get decided based on who knows who etc (one of the reasons Deadpool never made it over so to say), and Tencent is currently in the midst of making a big push into sponsoring and cofinancing imports. They claerly are well integrated. It’s unlikely that Venom would get left to the wolves withTencent having a stake above and beyond most of their deals; while having just made the decision to get its extension knowing that Aquaman (one of ‘theirs’ hits at the same time.

Everything I said may be true, but it may not matter, so we’ll just have to wait a little longer to see what tomorrow can tell us. Fingers crossed!
 
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Oct 27, 2017
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Feeling pretty good about Aquaman doing 65-70+m OW in China. It will end up with slightly more showings than Venom Opening Day. New best for a DC film. Ratings are very good across user media platforms.


Edit: looking at 20m usd opening day, so far.
 
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Jan 7, 2018
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