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Wkd Box Office - 11•30-12•2•18 - Ralph repeats #1 in slow weekend. Venom approaches $850M.
- Thread starter kswiston
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Is Rowan Atkinson stinking rich at this point? His movies always seem to do surprisingly well worldwide for what has to be a relatively cheap production and this has been going on for decades at this point.
It's gonna do lower than Justice League, so if JL can be considered a disaster, so can FB2.
Do you research before making claims.
They are called expectations. The film came in below the last film, but not massively so. WB knew going in that this kind of gross was within the reasonable realm of possibility... especially after underwhelming reviews.
Also, Justice League had a budget 100 million higher and likely a higher marketing budget.
Going by the standard a assumption that a film needs to make about 2.5x its production budget back in order to make a profit after marketing that means that FB needs 500 million to make a profit and JL needed 750 million.
Not the same situation at all.
WB would not have given the movie a bigger budget than the first if they were expecting it to do less.
Would be wild if The Favourite outperforms the other Oscar hopefuls. Seems like Yorgos's style should be alienating to audiences.
Way to ignore the rest of my post. Classy
JL had a 100 million bigger budget, which means it would need to make around 250 million more than FB in order to become profitable.
NOT. THE. SAME.
It is doing better Internationally and Domestically in the markets its opened in. You're letting your opinion of the films cloud your perception of how they're doing financially. Creed 2 will probably clear 200m.
Has there ever been any truth to that?
Especially with giant marketing budgets?
They wouldn't have known the reviews when they set the budget. The film very clearly had some course corrective measures on top of a larger budget that pulled in HP connections.
They still cannot be happy pulling in $300m or so on their $200m + marketing film.
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FB2 is the BvS of the franchise.
It did not meet expectations but it didn't actually flop, either. Nevertheless, there are alarm bells ringing for people who understand what these box office numbers mean for future films.
WB needs to course correct NOW, or they will have yet another franchise people thought was "flop proof" that outright flops...
It did not meet expectations but it didn't actually flop, either. Nevertheless, there are alarm bells ringing for people who understand what these box office numbers mean for future films.
WB needs to course correct NOW, or they will have yet another franchise people thought was "flop proof" that outright flops...
Yep. They still have time to save it, but it's in an extremely awkward position. As a setup movie it has already layer a lot of ground for what comes next. It's also going to be a tough act to organically course correct after they so blatantly retconned and changed things from FB1 to begin with.
They've already been playing (Tarnished the potential of) tying it more closely to the HP series as well which would have been a go to.
And least it isn't also the linch pin of an entire multithreaded cinematic Universe and it didn't execute on the concepts of beloved favorites so distastefully that a lot of them cannot be salvaged.
This is primarily a problem with the movie itself being bad while also walking back on the identity that FB1 established.
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Yeah, I have to admit, FB2 isn't looking so hot. Will hopefully reach 600m, but 650m looks out of reach.
That's something like a 200m drop (blinks several times). That can't be good :/
For the next movie to improve they need to 1. Make Credence a main character (give him more than 4 scenes), 2. Decide who the story is about (Newt & FB's, or Dumbledore vs Grindelwald?) and 3. Tell a complete story that stands alone without setting up a sequel.
Why on Earth they've centred the story around Credence when they have spent no screen time giving him character development baffles me (and we're 2 movies in).
That's something like a 200m drop (blinks several times). That can't be good :/
For the next movie to improve they need to 1. Make Credence a main character (give him more than 4 scenes), 2. Decide who the story is about (Newt & FB's, or Dumbledore vs Grindelwald?) and 3. Tell a complete story that stands alone without setting up a sequel.
Why on Earth they've centred the story around Credence when they have spent no screen time giving him character development baffles me (and we're 2 movies in).
Plus all the hype from the free screenings that they did last weekend. Everyone who has come out of that has been raving. At my screening people clapped at the end of the movie.
Yeah. If any more can beat tracking it's going to be Spider-verse. Sony made the right play by trying to get the word out early.
I'm 100% positive Kswiton said that Aquaman was hitting on the 3rd so I didn't bother to double check. Turns out it's hitting on the 7th in China.
Anyway the trend of Venom > Infinity War in China continues on! Though we could see IW take the week for the first time since week 1 (it has a few bounces throughout the 4 day stretch)
Day 25
Infinity War Monday 1.24M
Venom Monday 1.35M / 261.96M
No one is sure if Venom is extended of not, so we'll see relatively soon.
I'm 100% positive Kswiton said that Aquaman was hitting on the 3rd so I didn't bother to double check. Turns out it's hitting on the 7th in China.
Anyway the trend of Venom > Infinity War in China continues on! Though we could see IW take the week for the first time since week 1 (it has a few bounces throughout the 4 day stretch)
Day 25
Infinity War Monday 1.24M
Venom Monday 1.35M / 261.96M
No one is sure if Venom is extended of not, so we'll see relatively soon.
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I thought Spider-Verse was going to get a semi-confidential release in France, like Lego Batman, but it's apparently tracking ahead of Bumblebee and Aquaman. But Sony Animation is doing its thing again and we have a bunch of reality tv stars and football players doing the dub. Sigh...
I'll have to negotiate pretty hard with my nephew to take him to Astérix instead.
I'll have to negotiate pretty hard with my nephew to take him to Astérix instead.
Actually, if my calculations are correct (although a lot of it is admittedly guesstimation) - Crimes of Grindelwald has a pretty good chance of not making money.
Let's refer back to kswiston's forecasts for CoG's eventual worldwide gross as a basis:
You know the drill.
$163m NA x 0.5 = $81.5m
$58m China x 0.25 = $14.5m
$452 ITL x 0.4 = $181m
+______________________
Theatre WW Total = $277m
So the sum theatrical take for Warner Bros. would be the above. Now for ancillary:
Worldwide Home Entertainment x 0.8288 = $107m
$74.2m (NA TV)
$75m (Foreign TV)
____________________
Ancillary WW Total = $256.2m
Here's where it gets a little fuzzier. I've taken the worldwide home entertainment, North American TV, and international TV revenues for the first Fantastic Beasts and calculated a fraction of it based on CoG's forecasts. So if CoG is grossing $673m (a.k.a 82.8% of its predecessors') globally, the same will apply for its worldwide home entertainment revenues. Where it becomes guesswork is whether or not TV revenue scales proportionally with box office gross growth or decline - the model of which, I have no knowledge of. But if you compare Guardians Vol. 1 and Vol. 2's respective global TV cumes, they're more or less the same. So I don't imagine there'd be a large difference for Fantastic Beasts. If someone can correct me on this, feel free.
So Warner Bros. can be expected to take in $533.2 million when all said and done. Now for costs:
$200m budget + $150m marketing = $350m costs
$200m x 2.5 (40% of total costs) = $500m
$150m marketing is likely underselling it, to be frank. That's only $5m higher than the first's. Warner Bros. upped the production budget, featured once-box office draw Depp and had much more marketable premise to work with it: Dumbledore and Grindlewald finally duking it out. I'm thinking closer to $170m but let's be conservative.
The first Fantastic Beasts had a budget of $180m, which ended up being around 40% of its total costs. I'm not going to even attempt trying to disseminate the individual expenses for the second, so let's just apply a ratio of 2:5 for production vs. total and give CoG $500m as its total expense number. But we can't forget that Depp is an actual major character in CoG and not just a glorified cameo. Though his power as a draw has long waned, it's still Depp. Participations had to be significantly higher. I don't know by how much.
But the point is, you're only really looking at a $30m net profit for Warner Bros. which is not what they had in mind in the slightest for this movie when they invested more than six times that. And that's assuming: no increase in participations for a significantly expanded role for Depp (and Law), a likely substantially higher promotional budget than $150m, and a quite optimistic $673m global cume.
Whether or not this movie makes money is anyone's guess. So at the end of the day, even pulling almost 3.5x your production budget is nowhere close to a guarantee on profitability. CoG's huge drop in domestic performance is significantly hurting it.
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Yeah things were offset by the CVG but if you took the ratio provided on BOT and then estimated using the additional numbers are you were getting 'above a traditional DC film' but not crazy numbers. Seems like that it what it will end up doing in presales.
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$30m is really bad.
Though my $300m-ish wasn't for profit but for gross revenue. I got that number from even more optimistic calculations a couple of weeks ago.
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It's also a merchandising juggernaught and all the cross promotion stuff. It's gonna make money, but shows there is a problem and they need to abort the 5 movie idea
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60–70 (75m in bizarro land?) m would be my guess based on some maths, but it's just a guess, and it's still a little early yet.
This might sound a little vague but there's still guess work and supposition because of what was essentially mass ticket scalping.
Simple terms: CGV bought up and 'claimed' a ton of tickets ahead of time and have been sitting on them. CVG paid for these themselves and reported the numbers, so these sales got counted way earlier than they should have. CGV did this in the hopes that the movie will be big. As other chains sell out their showings, CGV unlocks X amount of tickets for presales to then be bought by customers at a higher price.
Technically that would result in some drops in presales, as block purchases go from 'bought by the cinema chain' to 'open to be bought by customers', but the tracking sites don't reflect this. Instead they basically estimate the sales of CVG as these tickets are unlocked and subtract it from the total of new presales from the other chains, based on how the film is presenting elsewhere and scarcity.
Right now Aquaman is having smaller daily bumps in presales than most SH movies because of this attempt to balance out the up front artificial inflation, and it makes definitive statements very murky.
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China on the low end. Actual range is probably 55-70. It's still too early to be specific.
Domestic tracking is 65M I think. But I am betting that it goes a bit higher if reviews are good.
Sony and Screen Gems must have some of the lowest standards in the industry. Hannah Grace is so hollow it feels like a bland 15-min short made by some film school student artificially extended to 85 minutes. They keep putting out rushed, amateurish garbage. Is this really the best script they could get?
Two months after release A Star is Born will be playing on IMAX screens this weekend.
Schindler's List re-release will be in Dolby Cinema and standard screens.
Schindler's List re-release will be in Dolby Cinema and standard screens.
It's a fucking fantastic movie, although not exactly a crowd pleaser.
Olivia Coleman is a goddamned treasure. I've never seen her play a character like this before, and she kills it.
It's my most anticipated of the year but watching The Killing of a Sacred Deer I wasn't really thinking "I bet this guy's next movie is gonna be a mainstream hit".
Hey will you look at that, it's almost like I know what I'm talking about or something with the exception of when I get my weeks mixed up when typing from my phone :p
Or not noticing a bug in my code that was bugging my numbers on projections screw you all light Resetera theme 4 ever!
VENOM granted extended run in China Bumblebee gets a date
After nearly four weeks of sinking its fangs into the Chinese box office, Sony's Venomhas been granted an extended run. Through Monday, the Tom Hardy-starrer has grossed $263.6M locally, taking the past frame at No. 2 behind China breakout A Cool Fish. It had earlier held No. 1 during its first two weeks of play, seeing an unprecedented hold at Middle Kingdom turnstiles.
Venom, which has a sizable investment from China behemoth Tencent, counts $846.9M worldwide through Monday and $634.6M at the international box office. In China, it is the 2nd biggest import of the year, behind only Avengers: Infinity War. It has been a crazy beast.
Adding about $1M per day in the midweeks (China), the Sony/Marvel symbiote will be impacted this weekend by the arrival of Warner Bros/DC's Aquaman which releases Friday. WB has dived in with both feet on Aquaman's China opening which comes a week ahead of some major offshore bows and two weeks before its domestic debut.
In other Chinese box office news, Paramount's spinoff Bumblebee will buzz over the Great Wall on January 4.
The origin story will look to tap into China's Transformers faithful: The past two films in that Michael Bayfranchise, The Last Knight and Age Of Extinction made $229M and $320M, respectively. At the time of its release, Age Of Extinction set a record (since surpassed) for biggest import ever in the market.
The early January release date Bumblebee has landed upon will see it zoom in after a jam-packed December.
https://deadline.com/2018/12/venom-china-extended-release-bumblebee-china-date-1202513748/
Or not noticing a bug in my code that was bugging my numbers on projections screw you all light Resetera theme 4 ever!
VENOM granted extended run in China Bumblebee gets a date
After nearly four weeks of sinking its fangs into the Chinese box office, Sony's Venomhas been granted an extended run. Through Monday, the Tom Hardy-starrer has grossed $263.6M locally, taking the past frame at No. 2 behind China breakout A Cool Fish. It had earlier held No. 1 during its first two weeks of play, seeing an unprecedented hold at Middle Kingdom turnstiles.
Venom, which has a sizable investment from China behemoth Tencent, counts $846.9M worldwide through Monday and $634.6M at the international box office. In China, it is the 2nd biggest import of the year, behind only Avengers: Infinity War. It has been a crazy beast.
Adding about $1M per day in the midweeks (China), the Sony/Marvel symbiote will be impacted this weekend by the arrival of Warner Bros/DC's Aquaman which releases Friday. WB has dived in with both feet on Aquaman's China opening which comes a week ahead of some major offshore bows and two weeks before its domestic debut.
In other Chinese box office news, Paramount's spinoff Bumblebee will buzz over the Great Wall on January 4.
The origin story will look to tap into China's Transformers faithful: The past two films in that Michael Bayfranchise, The Last Knight and Age Of Extinction made $229M and $320M, respectively. At the time of its release, Age Of Extinction set a record (since surpassed) for biggest import ever in the market.
The early January release date Bumblebee has landed upon will see it zoom in after a jam-packed December.
https://deadline.com/2018/12/venom-china-extended-release-bumblebee-china-date-1202513748/
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Yep. The movie might be lower than the first but it's still making tons of cash from merch, on top of ticket sales.
The potential is still there with the 5 movie plan (because money) but they will need to make sure the movies are better than the 2nd one, as it was a step backwards. Maybe a change of Director / script writers ect. If the 3rd one is a ton of fun like the 1st, then reviews should be good again and ticket sales should go back up.
At least the next movie is a lock. They might decide to wrap it up one film early, or if they still go with 5 I could see filming at the same time to keep costs down. The entire foundation of FB seems completely counter intuitive and borked either way. How could they have mapped out 5 films and flubbed pacing and follow through this hard.
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A franchise being a merch juggernaut does not necessarily mean that every film will move a ton of merch. Do kids really want to play with Fantastic Beasts merch, or will it be like all of the unloved Qi'ra and Beckett toys sitting in clearance bins while kids still happily buy Darth Vader stuff?
Also, the redesign really killed the momentum of our thread this week. Wednesday and we are still on the first 100PPP page!
I was too until I finally saw Jumanji. It's much more of a family friendly crowd pleaser than The Last Jedi and combined with the mixed reception of TLJ I can understand why families chose to watch or rewatch Jumanji instead of TLJ.
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