I don't really see another $20 million in the tank. I need some hopium (or statistics about how movies like this do once they dip into the $500k daily phase).
What each film earned in the domestic market from day 64 until end of run:
The Force Awakens: 17.9 million
Day 64: 918,724,209
Total: 936,662,225
Jurassic World: 15.2 million
Day 64: 637,067,430
Total: 652,270,625
Avengers: 13.7 million
Day 64: 609,640,578
Total: 623,357,910
The Last Jedi:
2.6 million :p
Day 64: 617,555,240
Total: 620,181,382
Last week:
Keep in mind that the only reason TFA beat BP last week and weekend is because TFA has a holiday Monday which buffed the Sunday/Monday for it.
BP still beat it Friday/Sat and every weekday following that leads up to thos Friday, where BP bear it again with the potential exception of a softer Sunday, following trends.
TFA Day 64 Friday: $917,914
BP Day 64 Friday: $1,227,000
Show your work.
Show how it gets another 23m
22.3m and change is what it needs.
TFA earned another 17.9m until the end of its run, and you're questioning BP managing to earn another 4.4 million over TFA when it is estimated to beat TFA by 300k this Friday, and likely by (healthily) over a million for the weekend as a whole? I'm more interested in why you think that BP doesn't have a path to 700m, frankly :p
BP almost always comes in above estimates (case and point last week BOM estimated it to earn 5.3m and it earned 5.7m) and it has been under estimated for weeks.
Starting at week 4 for each film, the only times BP lost a week was when TFA has a holiday in its favour, that being week 5 and week 9.
Here is what each film has grossed between weeks 4 and 9
Black Panther 155,562,508
The Force Awakens 147,425,252
Difference 8,137,260
However as a percentage of overall gross, BPs lead has been increasing substantially. Beating TFA by 2 million is less significant when you're each pulling in 50m the week as opposed to beating it by 4 million when you are both in the 20m range. You can check each film out head to head with the following link:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=weekly&id=openingweekendshowdown.htm
For more work and perspective, in early February I was saying that 1.3 billion was in play (and said it would hit it) for Black Panther and I was the first poster to argue for and defend the number with maths. I also made the case for why BP would likely fall within 675-700m domestic.
https://www.resetera.com/threads/wkd-box-office-2•23-25•18-panther-scores-108m-second-weekend-2-of-all-time-wakanda-forever.25659/page-34#post-5076868
#1651
Yes. Like it's ahead of all of the rest of MCU domestic.
Click to expand...
This is why I'm bullish on Black panther hitting 1.3 Billion.
The Top Domestic Earner for the MCU is the Avengers at 623 Million.
By the 12th day it had earned 389 Million, or 62.45% of its total domestic take
When you compare the OW of both movies, Avengers opened up stronger by 5 million, yet by its 12 day, Black panther has out grossed Avengers by over 32 million dollars. (starting from a 5 million deficit). If that kind of percentage performance held for BP, it would earn over 50 million more than Avengers 1 Domestically.
I think 675-700 million domestic is doable.
Remember how I said that all BP needs to do to hit 1.3 billion it to have the international take be comparable to Thor 3 internationally?
Well here are both films after their second week in theaters.
Thor Ragnarok:
308,384,671
Black Panther:
305,338,187
But crucially
China has yet to open for Black Panther, where as by this point China had already contributed 53 million to the international take of Thor 3. China was of course far and away the biggest market for Thor 3.
How did Thor 3 do in China, so we know the kind of contribution we're hoping for here?
Thor 3 total take in China:
$112,226,154
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=marvel2017.htm
Well then, let's take a look at pre-release metrics for Black Panther in China:
How much did Homecoming end up doing in China?
$116,280,889
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=spiderman2017.htm
Line in the sand, proclamation made: I'm willing to make the claim that Black Panther will hit 1.3 billion.
And I faced pushback for this post, and was ultimately right.
I said that beating TLJ domestically was incredibly likely, and bet that it would do it overall as well.
Here's how I was tracking BP using OW multipliers, against the performance of GOTG to show that it was likely to end up as one of the levies MCU films. Keep in mind I was doing this over time to prove the likely hood, it wasn't just one and done. Though I only updated this a few times on the site.
So while we're on the topic of MCU films here is the multiplier of every movie so far
If BP had tied for having the WORST legs in MCU history it would earn
$460,569,008.28
But the film is only on its
12th day or release and has already earned $421,915,776
Which is
91.61% of that total
It took Civil War until its
24th day (twice as long) of release to earn
91.61% of its total domestic gross.
So obviously, a 2.28 OW multiplier is far too low
No one is expecting BP to only earn another 40 Million dollars.
What if BP landed right in the middle of MCU OW Multiplers? It would earn
$548,143,662
Average OW multiplier 2.713529411764706
If BP had tied for having the BEST legs in MCU history (Guardians of the Galaxy) it would earn
$713,073,947.03
Again, on it's
12th day or release Black Panther has already earned $421,915,776
Which is
59.17% of that total
It took Guardians of the Galaxy until its
14th day of release to earn
59.17% of its total domestic gross.
About right
so far?
The Last Jedi will earn 620 million domestically by the end of its run. What does Black Panther need to do to match The Last Jedi Domestically? (Is there a path to 1.3 billion?)
Black panther will need to have a OW multiplier close to
3.074 to match The Last Jedi, which would place it in the top 4 MCU films ever by OW multiplier.
I honestly think that at the very least Black Panther will get an OW multiplier in the mid-high 2.X
but is likely to hit mid 3.X, so it will be interesting to see the two films trade blows and if Black Panther can weather the storm that in The Last Jedi's December performance and make up ground from there and weekends.
No it isn't. This movie isn't doing well enough internationally for 1.3 to be in the realm of possibility unless it explodes in China.
Well, China was the top international market for Civil War, contributing 180 million to the films total.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=marvel2016.htm&sort=todateGross&order=DESC&p=.htm
Off the back of that exposure and success, more than likely, this happened:
Chadwick Boseman recently picked up the Most Popular U.S. Actor In China award at the 13th Annual Chinese American Film Festival. During his acceptance speech he pointed out that African American actors are repeatedly told their films and popularity "don't travel overseas," and noted that this accolade helps to debunk such claims.
https://www.metro.us/entertainment/movies/chadwick-boseman-african-american-actors-overseas
It may against all odds perform decently in China (against TLJ at least :P). So far, unless I've missed something, with markets left to open, BP is performing slightly above(6%) Thor 3, which ended up earning
$538,826,846 internationally.
Meaning that if it did perform like Thor 3 + 6%, you'd only (lol) need Black Panther to carry a little under 700 million domestic to get there.
https://www.resetera.com/threads/wkd-box-office-2•23-25•18-panther-scores-108m-second-weekend-2-of-all-time-wakanda-forever.25659/page-29#post-5050444
In Response to
hodayathink saying the following:
(and
berzeli disagreeing about indicators showing BP looking likely to have a good showing in China)
No it isn't. This movie isn't doing well enough internationally for 1.3 to be in the realm of possibility unless it explodes in China.
I went and launch aligned a bunch of international (mainly Asian) markets for BP to build a case for healthy performance in China and strong international performance overall. To show that it didn't need a blowout in China to reach 1.3.
https://www.resetera.com/posts/5089920/
If we compare a some Asian markets, we can see that Black Panther is actually outperforming Thor Ragnarok, by the by:
By the end of its 2nd week, Thor Ragnarok had been opened and tracked in
51 International Markets
By the end of its 2nd week, Black Panther had been opened and tracked in
34 International Markets
Per BoxOfficeMojo
Head to Head Comparison of total Gross by the end of the 2nd week
Black Panther versus Thor Ragnarok
THE PHILIPPINES BLACK PANTHER WINS
$665,956
THAILAND BLACK PANTHER WINS
$363,216
SINGAPORE BLACK PANTHER WINS
$637,406
SOUTH KOREA BLACK PANTHER WINS
10.4 million (rounded)
$10,394,257
TAIWAN BLACK PANTHER WINS
2.4 million (rounded)
$2,382,855
Hong Kong BLACK PANTHER WINS
1.7 Million (rounded)
$1,737,557
Overall performance
Black Panther comes ahead by $13,798,392 in the same timeframe
Total 2 week gross for each
Black Panther at 2 weeks:
72,281,710
Thor Ragnarok at 2 weeks:
56,100,463
- What percentage did these 5 countries contribute to Thor Ragnaroks International lifetime gross?
12.5%
$67,341,417 (total)
$538,826,846 (Thor Ragnarok's total International take)
- Compared to the lifetime gross of Thor Ragnarok: in these 5 countries, how does Black Panthers 2 week performance compare?
Black Panther is
5 million dollars ahead of Thor Ragnaroks Lifetime gross
Black Panther at 2 weeks:
72,281,710
Thor 3 lifetime gross:
67,341,417
If we just compared them based on which markets both had released in so far (that have been tracked)?
Black Panther would be beating Thor decisively. There's not a single poor indicator heading into the 9th.
I think we've all been holding our breath when it comes to Black Panther's foreign performance. But the movie seems to be performing as well or better than your standard MCU standalone.
Also it's important to understand that if a genre movie is doing X in pre-sales, that doesn't mean that the overall audience will show up the same as for another type of film. Comparing presales and performance of an MCU film against MCU films is very reasonable to me.
Long and short of it is that you can see how BP is indeed ahead of Thor 3 internationally even with BP coming in marginally under Thor 3 in China due to a very competitive slate that it was up against. To be fair in China I expected BP to earn anywhere from 10 to 20 million more than it did so I'm not perfect!
International Take
BP Current: $640,398,043
Thor 3 Lifetime: $538,913,087
So like I said, BP earning another 23m is very likely unless it gets depressed by IW when IW is actually playing.
You can average out its performance over TFA from week 4 onward and project it. We could chart BPs degree of performance above TFA overtime and then look at its overall trend, using confidence intervals and the like to project it with greater accuracy. I think that's unecessary when it's going to outperform TFA by potientially as much or almost as much as a uquarter of what it needs to outperform said film by (4.4m) until end of run off of a weekend that amounts to like 20% of the remainder of what TFA earned from here on out.
TFA WEEKEND: 3,907,295
BP WEEKEND: $4,642,000 (estimate)
Difference: 734,705
Overall difference needed: 4.4m
Weekend diffrerence as a percentage of total difference needed: 16%
off of a period where TFA earned 20% of the remainder of its gross.
But like I said, BP tends to beat estimates.
