If weekly drops are anything to go by, it will miss $700m. If it had only 30% weekly drops for the next 5 weeks, it would end around $691m. Another four weeks of 30% drops would net less than $2m total. And that is assuming it keeps lower drops like that.
I would love for it to be the third film to ever hit $700m, but doesn't look like it is going to.
You'll be happy to know that your projection is off. :)
Here's how a 30% drop for week 10 says BP will perform (I eventually figured out that is how you got to 691 million in 5 weeks, though that number is only off from 692 by 50k)
$5,590,610.9
Here's what BP has already done in week 10 without Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday
$5,391,721
If you were using week 9 as the start point to fill in week 10 and then projected 5 weeks out $692,885,040
If you were counting the simulated week 10 as one of the 5 weeks, Black Panther would have a total of $691,945,426.087 essentially 692m
676442103, 5590610.9, 3913427.63, 2739399.341, 1917579.5387, 1342305.67709, 939613.973963
If you were using the current weeks gross total as though it is the weekly total (5,391,721) or the films domestic total (681,833,830) and applied a 30% drop, then in 5 weeks BP would have a total of $692,300,077
681,833,830, 3774204.7, 2641943.29, 1849360.303, 1294552.2121, 906186.54847
So obviously BP can't have a 30% drop off from week 10 and projecting such a drop forward isn't accurate.
With that out of the way let's take a look at what BP is likely to do this week besides not dropping by 30% like having earned more over 4 days than The Force Awakens did for the entire week.
Week 10
BP Weekend+Monday:
$5,391,721
The Force Awakens:
$5,195,589
If we are assuming 30% drops from here on out we need to figure out what BP might do for the rest of the week.
Let's low ball it: A conservative middle of the road projection for what BP could do over the next three days is 1.5 million (500k a day over three days).
Week 10 (estimated)
BP Weekend:
$6,900,000
The Force Awakens:
$5,195,589
So starting again here's what BP would look like this against The Force Awakens
Weekly performance over TFA following a weekly 30% drop projection
Week 10: $6,900,000 -- $5,195,589
Week 11: $4,830,000 -- $3,975,631
Week 12: $3,381,000 -- $2,481,745
Week 13: $2,366,700 -- $1,898,927
and so on.
So you can see the a full run projection would put BP over 700 million assuming a 30% drop week to week.
Amount earned: 22,844,008.69
Projected 23WK Total: $704,677,838.0
And that is assuming it keeps lower drops like that.
It's unlikely that it will drop by that much.
Average drop from week 10 until end of run
The Force Awakens:
26.40% 43.3, 23.5, 37.6, 23.5, 21, 9.4, 31.4, 47.1, 45.6, 21.5, 23.2,
Jurassic World:
20.63% 37.1, -28.7, 202.6, -9.6, -59.4, 44.6, 41.1, 22.6, 19.9, 0.8, 15.9, 33.9, 2.8, 39.4
-(Avengers data is messed up and TLJ had such a short tail that its drops distorts the data and isn't valuable, BP in no way conforms to the type of run TLJ had)
Just applying a 30% drop, I think, can't give us accurate results since the actual meaning behind drop % fluctuate wildly based on the point in the films life-cycle.
So instead I think just looking at what BP needs to do next week against Infinity War is more valuable. What percentage hold does BP actually need for the next full week to at least match the Force Awakens?
The Force Awakens Earned 3.9 million for the week. Assuming BP earns 6.9 million then it essentially needs to have a drop of slightly under 45% to match what The Force Awakens did. A drop of 45% places it under and a drop of 44% places it over what TFA did in a similar timespan.
6900000 x 0.55 = 3,795,000
This drop would mean that BP would earn
$3,795,000 for week 11
BP would need to drop by over 44% to not at least tie TFA next week
Ok so what might BP actually drop by?
Here's what the TOP 40 films did overall when the Force Awakens came out, not including art house stuff that got a huge % bump from adding on 10 theaters or other such silliness.
Drop Average
39.297%
You can look for yourself and seeing films like the Hunger Games only dropping 30% despite being over a month old.
Let's assume that Black Panther earns that 6.9 million for the week which is 'before' Infinity War as it were.
TFA Week 11 Gross
$3,975,631
Black Panther Week 11 using the average week to week drop of films when TFA came out
$4,188,507
Let's see how other films weathered The Force Awakens
BP "The Week Before"
Weeks on Market: 10
Screens: 1930
Per Theater Average: $3330
Assuming the screens stay the same and BP earns 500k per day from Tuesday to Thursday? 500k on 1930 screens would be a PTA of $258.
635, 1,155, 766, 258, 258, 258,
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekly/chart/?yr=2015&wk=51&p=.htm
In fact if we're about percentage averages at the moment, let's take a look at the average drop week over week.
But what's different for Black Panther as Infinity War is coming out?
Alvin and The Chipmunks and Sisters also came out the same week as The Force Awakens, squeezing everyone else that much more. With such a head to head release schedule not happening with Infinity War, this gives older films more room to not get gobbled quite as hard as we might think.
Screens
The Force Awakens Screens: 14400
Aatcm + Sisters Screens: 8000
And unlike when TFA came out there won't be 12 new releases week of, all vying for screens.
Again, this gives everyone who isn't The Force Awakens more room. You can bet that distributors aren't going to be as quick to kill a BP screen as they are something else.
If we take a look not by how long a film has been out but by gross and screen count since that's what distributors base their decisions on, we can see that things don't look too bad for Black Panther.
6 6
The Night Before Sony $6,004,408 2,674
7 5
Spectre Sony $5,708,472 2,640
Both were playing in more theaters than BP and likely had more screens, and earned less. So they're soft as it were.
Here's how they were hit by The Force Awakens, and keep in mind a lot of people aren't expecting Infinity War to end up grossing as much as The Force Awakens, lessening its pressure on the market over time in comparison.
Spectre Sony $2,905,413
-49.1% 1,065 -1,575 $2,728 $195,381,545 $245 7
The Night Before Sony $2,225,742
-62.9% 1,081 -1,593 $2,059 $42,535,806 $25 5
Oof, but then again they had a much lower PTA than Black Panther. Maybe we should look by PTA:
Brooklyn has a similar PTA and it only dropped 31.9% when TFA came out. Despite losing almost half its screens, its PTA went up in fact.
10 9
Brooklyn FoxS $2,962,990 -17.1% 947 +41 $3,129 $15,318,413
15 10
Brooklyn FoxS $2,018,502
-31.9% 543 -404 $3,717
I said weekly, not weekend.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekly&id=marvel2017b.htm
It is also going to start shedding theaters, and you have the home video release too.
No he's right, BP is going to have an epic hold this week. Likely at or above 7 million.
There are plenty of reasons to think that BP won't be hit as hard as you suggest. We can't ignore that Black Panthers performance is
increasing.
There's every reason to assume that it will be hit, but not as hard as your typical film because of the synergy and mind-share (not to mention Tchalla being in Infinity War).
Home Video won't kill Black Panther
Digital will hit Black Panther in Week 12
Home video will hit Black Panther in week 13
The Force Awakens came to Digital and Home Market on Week 16 (April 1st/5th)
The Force Awakens earned another 2.4 million once it arrived on home video and Black Panther consistently out performs The Force Awakens. The Force Awakens however also came out on video at a much later point in its run
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekly&id=starwars7.htm
J
umanji got its Digital and Physical Home market releases on week 11 and week 13 respectively
March 20, 2018 and available on Digital HD from Amazon Video and iTunes on March 6, 2018.
Jumanji grossed another 6 million during that time at a similar stage of life. It only ran until week 17 to do that over a 5 week stretch. Black Panther will have similar numbers going in with more time left in theaters because of a likely 21-23 week run.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekly&id=jumanji2016.htm
And if we follow your model Black Panther would be at
$693,911530 when it gets hit by home video. Meaning it would only need to do exactly what Jumanji did at the same point with stronger numbers coming into that period and massive cross promotion due to Infinity War.
