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Wkd Box Office - 5•10-12•19 - Pikachu does like Ash and fails to be #1, Endgame's Arceus-like run slows, Tolkien can't Hustle audience interest
- Thread starter OrangeAtlas
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It'll hit 2.7 billy. Don't know where they got the math, but it's wrong.
It will hit 2.7b no problem. It is how far past that that is in question.
If we go off Infinity War's legs, Endgame still has something like 80-70 million left in the tank domestically. If we use the 2.4 multiplier that is holding for DOM vs WW, that would leave it at a conservative estimate of 800M DOM and 1.92 B WW, which = 2.72B.
Does this sound right to anyone?
Does this sound right to anyone?
Exactly. It still needs to make almost 100m beyond that.
That's a lot. I'm not as confident as I was before.
It seems about right, way too conservative on the Dom and OS-C numbers tho.
Here's my "conservative" breakdown:
$830m Dom, $1.330m OS-C, $635m C = $2.795B
So barely topping Avatar by less than $10m. But I'm not worried in the slightest. Endgame isn't dropping out of theaters anytime soon, it will be less than $180m behind after this weekend, and less than $100m behind after Memorial Weekend. It will have to crawl to get there, but it's getting there before the half of June. Jatinder from BOT thinks it will happen somewhere middle of June, I'm thinking earlier.
Just to give some perspective: it was around $300m behind after last weekend.
I wonder how many of Endgame's screens Disney is going to give Aladdin. A lot of it will come down to that as well.
I was being extremely conservation but glad to see we're not much off. I'm interested in seeing how it does once Far From Home releases and if we'll see a considerable bump to push it more towards 2.85-2.90.
I think it might pull it off something like $2.93B. So close, but yet so far away of $3B, haha.
Everyone is so focused on TFA vs. Avatar vs. Endgame that Lion King is going to waltz in and just destroy all 3 or something.
I think that most people expect it to be pretty close at this point. In that case start preparing for the worst case scenario!
Go ahead!
Go ahead!
Not so wild anymore, but I agree. I have a theory that every time audiences have something like Endgame, Avatar or,Titanic, there is some sort of hangover for other big releases. I still have TLK around $1.5B tho.
Lately I've been thinking the same. Was high on it last year but seems the excitement has worn off. It is still going to do extremely well, just not stratospheric like originally thought.
I've at least heard more positive buzz for it than Aladdin and Dumbo
Disney hasn't blown the lid off of marketing yet. theres still TV spots, actual voice acting to be revealed, the Beyoncé and gambino soundtrack to be promoted. There's so much we haven't seen.
I said hit. Critic acclaim is separate.
I still need to see Long Shot.
I think Lion King will do very well. Better than any live update of theirs since Beauty and the Beast.
An interesting development:
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/counts/chart/?yr=2019&wk=20&p=.htm
Endgame, as expected, it's having a decline of theater count after this Thursday: It's losing 442 theaters from it's current wide release 4.662 theaters, so a -9.5% drop, going for the weekend with 4.220 theaters. Infinity War lost it's first theaters also going for its fourth weekend: it lost 472 theaters from its wide release of 4.474 theaters, so a -10,55% drop, going into that fourth weekend with a 4.002 theater count.
Pokémon in the other hand is actually increasing 1.1%, going for 4.248 theaters, when up until this Thursday had 4.202. John Wick 3 starts its run with 3.850 theaters.
What I make out of this: good sign for Endgame weekend numbers, since a bigger theater count might indicate that EG will indeed recover over IW. WB is going all in with Pokémon, but I still don't see how it could possibly top Endgame, regardless of the bigger theater count, shorter running time and Endgame going for its fourth weekend.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/counts/chart/?yr=2019&wk=20&p=.htm
Endgame, as expected, it's having a decline of theater count after this Thursday: It's losing 442 theaters from it's current wide release 4.662 theaters, so a -9.5% drop, going for the weekend with 4.220 theaters. Infinity War lost it's first theaters also going for its fourth weekend: it lost 472 theaters from its wide release of 4.474 theaters, so a -10,55% drop, going into that fourth weekend with a 4.002 theater count.
Pokémon in the other hand is actually increasing 1.1%, going for 4.248 theaters, when up until this Thursday had 4.202. John Wick 3 starts its run with 3.850 theaters.
What I make out of this: good sign for Endgame weekend numbers, since a bigger theater count might indicate that EG will indeed recover over IW. WB is going all in with Pokémon, but I still don't see how it could possibly top Endgame, regardless of the bigger theater count, shorter running time and Endgame going for its fourth weekend.
So did Endgame. 1. The culmination of a 21 film saga over 10 years etc
Endgame will not do better than TFA dailies. I'll bet you $10 cash app.
You do realize Endgame has had 200 more theaters than IW at this time right? So the parity will remain about the same.
After 2.7 basically will be an endurance race. Lets hope it gets those beautiful legs of Cap Marv.
Endgame has to compete with John Wick 3 and Pokémon. IW had Deadpool 2, and that's direct competition. I still maintain my prediction that EG weekend numbers will go over IW's $29.4m 4th weekend numbers.
Wait, are you saying that Endgame will not beat TFA whatsoever in any daily numbers going forward? Do you mean that if Endgame beats TFA day to day at least once I win? Are you for real? Haha
keysersoze123 on BOT said that a BO tracker said that Disney has a 6 weeks deal with plexes so he expects that most of the large multiplexes will be playing Endgame for at least six weeks. This could mean that Endgame will have a large theater count for at least six weeks.
I said it before, but the determining factor to watch is how many screens Disney allocates to Aladdin.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/china/
BOM has China at $601.595m right now. That is incorrect / not up to date, because like Jatinder is reporting, it is in fact up until this Thursday with $616.342m. It should be around $630m as soon as next weekend. OS numbers for Endgame have been completely absurd so far.
BOM has China at $601.595m right now. That is incorrect / not up to date, because like Jatinder is reporting, it is in fact up until this Thursday with $616.342m. It should be around $630m as soon as next weekend. OS numbers for Endgame have been completely absurd so far.
To quote you "I don't think Endgame will beat TFA at all, but I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if Endgame sometime from now starts beating TFA dailies. It's a lot closer now than it was last week."
"Starts beating TFA dailies" Endgame has been getting beat by IW dailies. What makes you think it'll beat TFA dailies?
Also, I never implied "at least once" for the bet but I'll entertain you.
Let's make things exciting around here lol
Look who got themselves banned.
BOMs China tabulation has been fucky for a long time and has caused few headaches.
BOMs China tabulation has been fucky for a long time and has caused few headaches.
They just should keep it in theaters until Spidey to get that boost
Don't forget Disney did a secondary push to get a wrinkle in time over 100m. They can do a proportional push to get IW over avatar and yes they care about such stupid things because they did it for that and BP and many other times to reach an arbitrary number 99.9% of people didn't notice so you can be damn sure they care about making the biggest movie ever
Don't forget Disney did a secondary push to get a wrinkle in time over 100m. They can do a proportional push to get IW over avatar and yes they care about such stupid things because they did it for that and BP and many other times to reach an arbitrary number 99.9% of people didn't notice so you can be damn sure they care about making the biggest movie ever
Ah, yes. That giant extra push to get that extra $2m by attaching it to drive in theater copies of Incredibles 2 that opened that weekend. I am sure an Endgame push will add $20m.
Hey man 1500% is 1500% and with endgame it could be much bigger total wise
Ah, yes. That giant extra push to get that extra $2m by attaching it to drive in theater copies of Incredibles 2 that opened that weekend. I am sure an Endgame push will add $20m.
Week over week drops are higher than IW from the start. Yes, it start much higher, but the star that burns twice as bright burns half as long.
And yes, those Force Awakens numbers on the last two days are the first non holiday weekdays that still handily beat Avengers.
The Force Awakens dropped off a cliff after the holidays so this can't be right.
Week over week drops are higher than IW from the start. Yes, it start much higher, but the star that burns twice as bright burns half as long.
And yes, those Force Awakens numbers on the last two days are the first non holiday weekdays that still handily beat Avengers.
With Frozen 2 later on is quite possible TLK won't even be the highest grossing animated movie of the year.
I am really curious how Frozen 2 will play out at the box office. Obviously it is going to have a monster opening, especially compared to the first. But I don't see it legging out the same way because people now know what they are in for.
Still gonna be a beast.
Said it earlier in the thread. IW had a really easy schedule, EG does not. It was already matching IW's drops prior to this weekend. It will come down harder because right now. This month last year, all IW had was Deadpool 2 and Solo. EG already has Pikachu a week earlier, John Wick this weekend is looking to open 35mil+. Aladdin is going to open around the same as Solo. But following it, you got SOLP 2, Godzilla, and Xmen. All looking to open 50mil+.
Only gets worse from here on out for Endgame. It loses Imax to Aladdin next week as well.
Only gets worse from here on out for Endgame. It loses Imax to Aladdin next week as well.
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